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MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7"

madnesstiger

By madnesstiger
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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" Intro...

  • This is a new system I am trialing, based very loosely on my older system, "MadnessTrebles" (in the S&S section of the forum).
  • The staking system is based loosely on "Fleet's UK Footie Trebles" (also in the S&S section of the forum).
  • It is not planned to be my primary money-making system, but a system which I will mostly only be using at weekends. I will still be focusing on "100% Madness" as my key system.
The System...
  • 7 football divisions are to be used in this system (English Premier, English Championship, English League 1, English League 2, Scottish Premier, Turkish Superlig & German Bundesliga 1)
  • £7 will be the total stake for each bet
  • Each division has 6 seasons' worth of calculated past data
  • Each game is given a rating of 1-6 (although very rarely a game may be given a '0'). The higher the rating, the more likely it is of a HOME WIN. Likewise, the lower ratings suggest a higher percentage of AWAY WINS.
  • The rating is produced from a few quite complicated formula's in MS Excel, based on factorial equations, recent form, and a set of 'predicted' scores for the match in question (these predicted scores have a 48-52% strike rate depending on the league division, so nothing too special there). I will be keeping the rating system secret.
  • The results of past data do not necessarily provide outstanding strike rates, but as mentioned above, do constantly provide clear patterns of home wins, draws, and away wins according to the match rating.
  • I am not going to get too excited over how accurate the past results have been. The simple and small range of ratings will hopefully help make the bet selection procedure easier, and also throw in quite a few highly-rated matches with attractive odds.

  • 15 home-win selections will be chosen from games rated 5 or 6. (4-rated games may be used some weeks when there is a lack of higher-rated games)
  • 0 & 1-rated games will be chosen as our away-win selections
  • The 15 home-win selections will be split into 5 groups of 3 and as evenly as possible regarding the odds for each match. These groups will be referred to alphabetically; A,B,C,D,E.
The Staking...
  • £1 - trebles on each home-win group (5 groups = £5)
  • £1 - home accumulator (all 15 home-win selections - once I find where I can place a 15-fold online!)
  • £1 - away accumulator (all away-win selections)
  • £7 TOTAL STAKE

What we can expect...

  • 1 winning treble should more-or-less return our stakes
  • 2 winning trebles, therefore, should double our stakes
  • The more 'exotic' bets can return allsorts of unreadable amounts!

If any of the above flew over your head, bear with me and you'll get the idea soon enough!

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" SATURDAY 15TH MARCH 2008 HOME-WIN SELECTIONS (BET365 ODDS & MATCH RATING IN BRACKETS) GROUP A

  • PORTSMOUTH VS ASTON VILLA (2.37, 5)
  • QPR VS SCUNTHORPE (1.66, 6)
  • HANNOVER 96 VS BIELEFELD (1.72, 6)
GROUP B
  • BLACKPOOL VS PRESTON (2.37, 5)
  • KAYSERISPOR VS GENCLERBIRLIGI (1.60, 5)
  • HAMBURG VS BORUSSIA DORTMUND (1.72, 6)

GROUP C

  • CRYSTAL PALACE VS BARNSLEY (1.80, 5)
  • BOURNEMOUTH VS YEOVIL (2.37, 5)
  • HIBERNIAN VS KILMARNOCK (1.57, 5)
GROUP D
  • WEST BROM VS LEICESTER CITY (1.57, 5)
  • COVENTRY CITY VS SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY (2.10, 5)
  • GILLINGHAM VS CREWE ALEXANDER (2.00, 5)

GROUP E

  • HULL CITY VS SOUTHAMPTON (2.00, 5)
  • PETERBOROUGH VS NOTTS COUNTY (1.36, 5)
  • KARLSRUHE VS EIN. FRANKFURT (2.10, 5)
* LIVERPOOL (6) & ARSENAL (6) ELIMINATED DUE TO VERY LOW ODDS! AWAY-WIN SELECTIONS
  • DERBY VS MANCHESTER UNITED (1.16, 0)
  • HUDDERSFIELD VS SOUTHEND UNITED (2.55, 1)
  • BRADFORD CITY VS MANSFIELD TOWN (3.75, 1)
  • MOTHERWELL VS CELTIC (1.53, 1)
  • COTTBUS VS BAYERN MUNICH (1.36, 1)

*** DUE TO BET365 POLICY, A MAXIMUM OF 14-FOLD ACCUMULATORS ARE ACCEPTED *** Because of this, I have left Hibernian out of the home-win accumulator - for this bet at least, it will only be a 14-fold selection (not that it stands a chance anyway!) Anyone know where I can place a 15-fold acca online?!

  • 5 X 'GROUP' SINGLES
  • 1 X 14-FOLD HOME-WINS
  • 1 X 5-FOLD AWAY-WINS

TOTAL STAKED THIS BET: £7.00 CURRENT PROFIT/LOSS: -£7.00 (7 open bets)

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" Cheers HLV! Have totally forgotten about Expekt in recent months, and am sure I haven't opened an account with them yet. Looks like there's a free £25 waiting for me too if I deposit a bit of money - bargain! :lol I will stick to Bet365 for todays amusement, and to see how I get on, but will definately look into Expekt for next time (they look like they have decent odds too!). Thanks for joining me with these, and best of luck to whoever else jumps on the wagon with us. Realistically, I'm not expecting any more than 2 trebles, but you never know ;) :hope:hope

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" Thats all the results in. Here's how we did: GROUP A

  • PORTSMOUTH VS ASTON VILLA (2.37, 5) :) 2-0
  • QPR VS SCUNTHORPE (1.66, 6) :) 3-1
  • HANNOVER 96 VS BIELEFELD (1.72, 6) :( 2-2
GROUP B
  • BLACKPOOL VS PRESTON (2.37, 5) :( 0-0
  • KAYSERISPOR VS GENCLERBIRLIGI (1.60, 5) :) 3-0
  • HAMBURG VS BORUSSIA DORTMUND (1.72, 6) :) 1-0

GROUP C

  • CRYSTAL PALACE VS BARNSLEY (1.80, 5) :) 2-0
  • BOURNEMOUTH VS YEOVIL (2.37, 5) :) 2-0
  • HIBERNIAN VS KILMARNOCK (1.57, 5) :) 2-0
GROUP D
  • WEST BROM VS LEICESTER CITY (1.57, 5) :@ 1-4
  • COVENTRY CITY VS SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY (2.10, 5) :( 0-0
  • GILLINGHAM VS CREWE ALEXANDER (2.00, 5) :@ 0-3

GROUP E

  • HULL CITY VS SOUTHAMPTON (2.00, 5) :) 5-0
  • PETERBOROUGH VS NOTTS COUNTY (1.36, 5) :( 0-0
  • KARLSRUHE VS EIN. FRANKFURT (2.10, 5) :@ 0-1
AWAY-WIN SELECTIONS
  • DERBY VS MANCHESTER UNITED (1.16, 0) :) 0-1
  • HUDDERSFIELD VS SOUTHEND UNITED (2.55, 1) :) 1-2
  • BRADFORD CITY VS MANSFIELD TOWN (3.75, 1) :) 1-2
  • MOTHERWELL VS CELTIC (1.53, 1) P-P
  • COTTBUS VS BAYERN MUNICH (1.36, 1) :@ 2-0

TODAY'S STATS: HOME PICKS: 15 WINS:8 DRAW:4 LOSS:3 AWAY PICKS: 4 (1 MATCH CANCELLED) WINS:3 DRAW:0 LOSS:1 BANKROLL: STAKED: £7.00 RETURN: £6.72 OVERALL PROFIT/LOSS: -£0.28 COMMENTS: Not a bad start really I thought. Only one treble gave us a return, but the fact that there was a strike rate of over 50% gives me an initial good feeling that it can maybe prove quite fruitful in the near future. The away picks surprised me the most, with SOUTHEND and MANSFIELD notching up wins at odds of 2.55 and 3.75 respectively. With the CELTIC match postponed, it was only the Germans who let us down in the 'away' department. I will go and look at a few different staking strategies I could make use of before the next set of fixtures as I think a bit of tweaking here and there,we can expect a few good returns here and there. Any ideas? - chuck them this way! MT :ok

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" Have had a look at the ratings for tomorrows matches, and have picked 5 homes and 3 away selections. I have not put these into groups of 3, but instead have placed bets as below. I am playing around with the different staking strategies more than anything at the minute, and you will probably find me placing all sorts of different combinations until I decide on what I think gives the best returns. What DOES stay the same though throughout, is the ratings system. This system seems to dig out some generous odds and, if you've been reading my "100% Madness" thread, helps with predicting how many goals we can expect to see in each match. More on that in the other thread. OK, here's my bets which I have already placed with Bet365: SUNDAY 16TH MARCH 2008 HOME-WIN SELECTIONS (BET365 ODDS & MATCH RATING IN BRACKETS)

  • WIGAN VS BOLTON (2.20, 5)
  • WERDER BREMEN VS WOLFSBURG (1.61, 6)
  • BAYER LEVERKUSEN VS NURNBERG (1.61, 6)
  • BESIKTAS VS TRABZONSPOR (1.55, 5)
  • DENIZLISPOR VS GAZIANTEPSPOR (2.05, 5)
AWAY-WIN SELECTIONS (BET365 ODDS & MATCH RATING IN BRACKETS)
  • FULHAM VS EVERTON (2.10, 1)
  • KONYASPOR VS FENERBAHCE (1.60, 1)
  • KASIMPASA VS BUYUKSEHYR (2.30, 1)

STAKES:

  • £3.90 (26x£0.15) SUPER-YANKEE on HOME selections
  • £2.10 (3x£0.70) DOUBLES on AWAY selections
  • £0.50 TREBLE on AWAY SELECTIONS
  • £0.50 EIGHTFOLD ACCUMULATOR on ALL SELECTIONS
  • £7.00 TOTAL STAKE

BANKROLL: TOTAL STAKED THIS BET: £7.00 CURRENT PROFIT/LOSS: -£7.28 (31 open bets) MT :ok

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Hooloovoo

Hooloovoo

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" I am quite pleased with these results, looks promising. A shame that Bayern Munich let us down! :spank About the away-combo, I noticed the following differences in odds: Match, Bet365 odds, Expekt odds Man Utd, 1.16, 1.18 Southend, 2.55, 2.70 Mansfield, 3.75, 4.25 :) Celtic, 1.53, 1.55 Bayern Munich, 1.36, 1.40 Now it does not look like much of a difference, but the bet365 acca gives 23.08, while the same at Expekt gave me 29.38! This is NOT an Expekt commercial, I just wanted to make a point about that it's always a good idea to shop around for better odds, especially when it comes to accumulators :ok I'll be looking forward to your next selections

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" I noticed some of the differences in odds last night when I checked out Expekt. As mentioned before, I am definately going to take a closer look before long. Whilst the bankroll is low and I'm still experimenting with the system, I will stick to Bet365 purely as I already have an account open and a few pennies in there! The table you showed with the odds differences between the two did show that there is quite a difference whe it comes down to the accumulators! And we could've tasted a bit of that earlier had it not been for "one of the best teams in Europe"!

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Hooloovoo

Hooloovoo

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" I have backed your selections for tomorrow :ok What you say is correct, no point in chasing better odds if it's pennies and just trying out a new system. The difference in odds is huge though, as a comparison, the 8-fold gave you 140.03, I got 172.33 at Expekt. But it's the same for me, I just happen to have some pocket change at the Expekt account, so I just happen to be there :loon Best of luck for tomorrow! (Still a little pissed about the lost away-combo!) :sad

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" Todays Results: SUNDAY 16TH MARCH 2008 HOME-WIN SELECTIONS (BET365 ODDS & MATCH RATING IN BRACKETS)

  • WIGAN VS BOLTON (2.20, 5) :) 1-0
  • WERDER BREMEN VS WOLFSBURG (1.61, 6) :@
  • BAYER LEVERKUSEN VS NURNBERG (1.61, 6) :) 4-1
  • BESIKTAS VS TRABZONSPOR (1.55, 5) :) 3-0
  • DENIZLISPOR VS GAZIANTEPSPOR (2.05, 5) :) 2-1
AWAY-WIN SELECTIONS (BET365 ODDS & MATCH RATING IN BRACKETS)
  • FULHAM VS EVERTON (2.10, 1) :( 1-0
  • KONYASPOR VS FENERBAHCE (1.60, 1) :) 1-4
  • KASIMPASA VS BUYUKSEHYR (2.30, 1) :( 1-0

TODAY'S STATS: HOME PICKS: 5 WINS:4 DRAW:0 LOSS:1 AWAY PICKS: 3 WINS:1 DRAW:0 LOSS:2 BANKROLL: STAKED: £7.00 RETURN: £8.51 OVERALL PROFIT/LOSS:£1.23 COMMENTS: The 'Super Yankee' was the winner of the day for the HOME selections. Had it not been for Werder Bremen losing, the returns would've been alot better. Had a thought earlier about only including selections with odds of 2.00 or more. Will look closer at this when the next bout of fixtures comes along. Still, a profit (albeit a small one) from the weekend's fixtures, but still alot more work required on the selections/stakng front before I'm happy with it ;) :ok

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madnesstiger

madnesstiger

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Re: MadnessTrebles 2: "Lucky 7" Still working on the staking side of things with this one. I have, however, revamped the ratings model for each of the 7 divisions, and each match now has a rating of 0 - 5. The strike rates vary slightly between divisions, but in general, anything rated 3 or above has a 50%+ success rate for home wins. Games rated 5 generally are up around the 70% mark. With this in mind, and not wanting to make this system too complicated, I have selected matches from this weekends fixture lists which indicate a rating of 3 or above, and therefore a case to pick the home win. From the shortlist, I have then gone on to pick the 3 picks with the highest odds for this weekends selections. Again, not expecting much, but it is a GH afterall! WEEKEND 21st - 22nd MARCH 2008 HOME-WIN SELECTIONS (BET365 ODDS & MATCH RATING IN BRACKETS)

  • NORTHAMPTON VS NOTTINGHAM FOREST (2.40, 4)
  • PLYMOUTH VS WATFORD (2.50, 3)
  • WOLFSBURG VS HAMBURG (2.87, 4)
STAKES:
  • £6.00 (3x£2.00) DOUBLES
  • £2.00 TREBLE
  • £8.00 TOTAL STAKE

POTENTIAL:

  • 2 WINNERS = £12.00-£14.36
  • 3 WINNERS = £74.58

:hope

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