Carl Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Going: HEAVY Starburst Diamond 1.40 Folkstone 3rd in a bumper LTO at Chepstow when judged by the jockey booking he was the 2nd string. Has had intense schooling at home and could run well from a yard in decent form. Connections must think he'll handle the testing conditions. 11/1 Alpha Gamble 4.10 Folkstone Won over CD LTO in a AmHdcp and has won a point-to-point in Ireland. That win LTO would have done his confidence a world of good and now despite the 8lb rise he could still run well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 3.10 race My ratings on this race are as follows: Killard Point 14pts Money Line 13pts The Outlier 12pts Staking as follows: Killard Point 4pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 (BOG) returns 12pts profit Money Line 2pts win @ 12/1 Sportingbet returns 16pts profit The Outlier 4pts win @ 4/1 Betfred returns 10pts profit Favourite Captain Correlli is back on a winning mark & RP states that it needs to win this to have a chance of getting an adequate rating to get into the grand National field. Negatives include not having won in this class before (has won in Cl 2 though!), has only won 1 from 4 3m+ & this will take some getting today. trainer doesnt have many runners here & shows 1 win from 7 at this track in 5 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 1.40 Starburst diamond any horse out of Old Vic will show its true form on a very soft surface & perhaps this one surprised the stable LTO when 3rd beating its 1st string that day (5th) behind The Apprentice in a bumper at Chepstow. At 12/1 worth a risk that this one may improve a few lbs on going it will love. 1.10 Daves Dream Would you take Evs on a horse where the trainer has 6 out of 8 hurdles hform here (75%). I certainly would, this is the one to beat today based on that record. Bremen sets the standard but has seconditis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted January 21, 2008 Author Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 I kept looking at Money Line this morning and in the end left it alone but I think its got a cracking chance and if AP was on it no way would you get 12/1 for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 I kept looking at Money Line this morning and in the end left it alone but I think its got a cracking chance and if AP was on it no way would you get 12/1 for it. i think its lightweight will also help today. ignore last run as it was during the stables illness. Prior to that 3 wins on the bounce hard to ignore. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 3.10 The Outlier 9/2 7.5 pts e.w WH. Could go purely for the win as only two places but this is a more stand out price and I also think given its running style and being top weight it could be vulnerable to just one catching it. In small field races I always think tactics of a race are always even more important but I see it as simple in this (I think,) The Outlier normally front runs lto it didn't but i would think today it would in these conditions. It showed itself as a real mud lover especially in the Peter Marsh last year when beating turpin Green getting lots of weight and essentially bravely seeing them all off. It returns to that mark today after some relatively disappointing efforts it has to be said and I'm hoping the conditions will help it bounce back to form. Also feel Hobbs horse does have the bounce factor to deal with, long gap until its run lto, trainers can get them back now first time with more ease but sometimes they do not perform on their second run. We will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 1.10 Folkestone - Bremen Sets the standard here, missed on couple occasions, but the fav has won only a ordinary bumper and shouldn't be that short in the market for me. Bremen can take advantage of his hurdling ability and win this at a price I think is value ahead of the odds on fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 Event Folk 2.40 Selection Noble Future (Each-Way) Strength 2/10 Date 21/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Betfred @ 41.00 (Back) Reasoning Meeting - Folk Race - 2.40 Selection - Noble future Subject to a decent gamble last time out but showed absolutely nothing. Should come on and improve from that run too. Lto was on soft and these conditions will really test if its working out at home or not!! Jockey thomas has 9 from 30 when riding for Venetia Williams. If there was anything in the money that saw it move from 50's to 14's LTO then we should see it today. Not a very confident bet but then lately most of mine haven't been!!! This is purely a "Weight of money" LTO bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 Event Folk 4.10 Selection New Mischief (Each-Way) Strength 2/10 Date 21/01/2008 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 67.00 (Back) Reasoning Meeting - Folk Race - 4.10 Selection - New Mischief The rank outsider in a 10 horse field but he can handle the conditions so firstly he should not be the rank outsider!!. LTO it was pulled up on good ground at Ludlow. While its last 4 runs have been on Good, its interesting to note that this horse has 2 placed efforts from 3 over this distance and Todays jockey has had only 2 rides onboard and taken it to a place both times. It has won off a higher weight before too.There are worse horses in the race than this one, yet they are at shorter prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 1.40 Starburst diamond 2nd 11/1 any horse out of Old Vic will show its true form on a very soft surface & perhaps this one surprised the stable LTO when 3rd beating its 1st string that day (5th) behind The Apprentice in a bumper at Chepstow. At 12/1 worth a risk that this one may improve a few lbs on going it will love. 1.10 Daves Dream 1st 5/6 Would you take Evs on a horse where the trainer has 6 out of 8 hurdles hform here (75%). I certainly would, this is the one to beat today based on that record. Bremen sets the standard but has seconditis. Daves Dream was impressive & keeps up Hendersons remarkable record at the track. Starburst Diamond got mullered on the turn in but stayed on well for 2nd & loved the ground as expected on its pedigree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam7982 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 Money line done it then at 14/1 well done Bowles nice pick..... i had the captain cornelli to be a part of my double if he had come 1st i would have landed £113 damn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 3.10 race My ratings on this race are as follows: Killard Point 14pts Money Line 13pts The Outlier 12pts Staking as follows: Killard Point 4pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 (BOG) returns 12pts profit Money Line 2pts win @ 12/1 Sportingbet returns 16pts profit The Outlier 4pts win @ 4/1 Betfred returns 10pts profit Favourite Captain Correlli is back on a winning mark & RP states that it needs to win this to have a chance of getting an adequate rating to get into the grand National field. Negatives include not having won in this class before (has won in Cl 2 though!), has only won 1 from 4 3m+ & this will take some getting today. trainer doesnt have many runners here & shows 1 win from 7 at this track in 5 years. money Line returns 14/1 :clap made it my best bet of the day also :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 Wasn´t really fancying anyrthing today but fancied a bet a luch so followed Bowles and Carl on Starburst Diamond, and bowles on Money Line Excellent day and well done fellas :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 21, 2008 Share Posted January 21, 2008 Re: Folkstone 21/01/08 Wasn´t really fancying anyrthing today but fancied a bet a luch so followed Bowles and Carl on Starburst Diamond, and bowles on Money Line Excellent day and well done fellas :clap where's my commission! :ok glad someone profited, i did well as i took 10's on Money Line at Bet365 in the end as i left it late to back it & then it returned 14's so i got that under the Best odds guarantee:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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