happygooner Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System I am a little late :( But I got: Atl +2,5 Sac +7,5 NO +3 Did not check for injuires. Sac has injuries but I agree on the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 5, 2008 Author Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Sorry Im late, went out straight after work so couldn't post or place a bet. I got Atlanta, Washington and New Orleans for tonight. Just in time for New Orleans, so i will only count that in my records. System 2 Plays: New Orleans +2.5 o Golden State 10.50 @ 1.95 System 1 plays: New Orleans o Golden State 10 @ 2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Nader Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 2 is still doing well, hope it can continue this way, BTW nice picking on the NO game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Sorry Im late, went out straight after work so couldn't post or place a bet. I got Atlanta, Washington and New Orleans for tonight. Just in time for New Orleans, so i will only count that in my records. System 2 Plays: New Orleans +2.5 o Golden State 10.50 @ 1.95 System 1 plays: New Orleans o Golden State 10 @ 2.25 Didn't Washinton Have Arenas out so a no play? Both Sac & Wash would have been a winner though regardless of injuries. Worth keeping an eye on these non qualifying games I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 5, 2008 Author Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System I think you have too judge each case on its merits. Yes Washington have Arenas out, however he has been out for a long time and Washington are probably playing better without him as Butler and Jamison and brilliant players and can truly express themselves now. Injuries are a funny as some teams can cope and improve like Washington and some teams cant like Miami. I guess we just have to make decisions based how we feel a team will react without a player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 5, 2008 Author Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Starting Bank: 1000pts Record: 4-8 -3.8 New Bank: 996.2 System 2 Starting Bank: 1000 Record: 12-1 +109.8 New Bank: 1109.8 We will increase System 2 plays to 11pts now. Happygooner, about System 2 on other forums. I got this system from a poster called LarryLegend and he was the first guy to post it and he claimed it performed well the last time he used it. He posted the rules for the system which were easy to follow and then I just took it from there. I dont read other threads about which plays qualify as it will just confuse me. I just read the initial post with the system rules and work it out myself. It has been working so far! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 5, 2008 Author Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Hi cyraxro, I would be interested to know what factors you use in your system. For my system I use home and away winning%, H2H results over the last 5 meetings and team form over last 5 games. They are all weighted differently and then the result of all 3 added together is converted into moneyline odds. By the way nice pick on Washington ML. My system picked them as well, however wasnt able to post or make a bet before the game started. Damn! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 5, 2008 Author Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System No plays for either system today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 6, 2008 Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Starting Bank: 1000pts Record: 4-8 -3.8 New Bank: 996.2 System 2 Starting Bank: 1000 Record: 12-1 +109.8 New Bank: 1109.8 We will increase System 2 plays to 11pts now. Happygooner, about System 2 on other forums. I got this system from a poster called LarryLegend and he was the first guy to post it and he claimed it performed well the last time he used it. He posted the rules for the system which were easy to follow and then I just took it from there. I dont read other threads about which plays qualify as it will just confuse me. I just read the initial post with the system rules and work it out myself. It has been working so far! How strange, Larry Legend is the guy i've seen posting it but he insists on different calculations and qualifying rules for plays:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 6, 2008 Author Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Plays: Cleveland o Toronto 10pts @ 2.62 System 2 Plays: Dallas -8 o Minnesota 12pts @ 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 6, 2008 Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Plays: Cleveland o Toronto 10pts @ 2.62 System 2 Plays: Dallas -8 o Minnesota 12pts @ 1.91 You realise Dallas have a first teamer out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 6, 2008 Author Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System I still am gonna include it. The players that may be out can be replaced with not much effect on team performance. If it was Novitzki, Harris or Howard then I would not play it. But its up to you if you wanna play it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 6, 2008 Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System I still am gonna include it. The players that may be out can be replaced with not much effect on team performance. If it was Novitzki' date=' Harris or Howard then I would not play it. But its up to you if you wanna play it.[/quote'] What do you think about Bucks as only 1 starter out there? Also had heat but seems most of their team is out tonight haha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 6, 2008 Author Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System The one starter out for Milwaukee is Redd who is their best player so no play for me. Miami def no play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Nader Posted January 6, 2008 Share Posted January 6, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Nice results again today Alense :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Really impressive how this sytem is doing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System The other impressive thing is that I believe even negating the rules of b2b and injured starters this thing is flying. Over at one forum they are tracking these. I know for a fact the record is 6-1 over last 2 days as I tracked them. Over last few weeks or more, it's about 50-14 or something haha!! I just love when something like this is highlighted and just makes me crazy I don't have healthy wedge to stake on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Dou you reckon then not to look at the injuries? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Dou you reckon then not to look at the injuries? Well I don't know, but I blindly bet Dallas, Mia & Bucks last night. Mi lost by a whisker and considering they were 2 down with a minute to go... The day before that Sacramento covered, Washington won, Boston won...both had injuries and all had played the day before I think!?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomica Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System In Valliant's contrary system thread, Toples wrote "also if u take out game where team u put money on is on 0 days rest- u get 1,895 for fair odds..." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Starting Bank: 1000pts Record: 5-8 +12.4 New Bank: 1012.4 System 2 Starting Bank: 1000 Record: 13-1 +120.8 New Bank: 1120.8 Ok system 2 seems to do well even with injuries and no rest. Lets think about this logically, because the system takes into account the spread and the spread which has been set by the bookmakers takes into account injuries etc then by default doesnt the system also take into account the injuries and no rest? Hmmm I think the answer is yes. Any thoughts? Maybe I should track the plays that dont strictly follow all the rules. I'll start today. But for the record I will only be playing half of my normal amount just to be safe, and I advise everyone else to so as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Starting Bank: 1000pts Record: 5-8 +12.4 New Bank: 1012.4 System 2 Starting Bank: 1000 Record: 13-1 +120.8 New Bank: 1120.8 Ok system 2 seems to do well even with injuries and no rest. Lets think about this logically, because the system takes into account the spread and the spread which has been set by the bookmakers takes into account injuries etc then by default doesnt the system also take into account the injuries and no rest? Hmmm I think the answer is yes. Any thoughts? Maybe I should track the plays that dont strictly follow all the rules. I'll start today. But for the record I will only be playing half of my normal amount just to be safe, and I advise everyone else to so as well. Yeah, I agree The only thing I wouldn't do is bet more than 10 double digit spread as apparently this is 50/50 thing so no benefit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 2b plays: Denver +7.5 o Pheonix 10.40pts @ 1.96 San Antonio +2.5 o Golden State 10.80pts @ 1.92 This will be a record of plays that system 2 picks but either the team has an injury or they are playing with no rest. Very unsure of playing San Antonio with real money as Duncan could be out and that would be a big loss for them. More confident on Denver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System I`ve got the same feeling about SA Spurs, Duncan and Barry are injured Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Hey Alense What about this TAR - turnover to assist ratio system you mentioned before. Have you already started to use it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Havent used it. Decided to cut down on the amount of bets I have each day, trying to stay disciplined. There is a guy on another forum who is tracking the system and it went 4-1 last night. I will send you the link by private message. There is a complete explanation of the system there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Cant use the pm function for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System I cant use it either Could you please send by an email [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System you got mail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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