alense Posted January 2, 2008 Author Share Posted January 2, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Plays: Washington o Detroit 10pts @ 2.96 New Jersey o Orlando 10pts @ 3.30 Atlanta o Cleveland 10pts @ 2.96 Golden State o Dallas 10pts @ 3.20 Philidelphia o Utah 10pts @ 5.10 Mostly from Betfair System 2 Plays: Charlotte +1 o Chicago 10.20pts @ 1.98 Atlanta +5 o Cleveland 10.50pts @ 1.95 Milwaukee +3 o Miami 11.20pts @ 1.89 Philadelphia +9 o Utah 10.50pts @ 1.95 Portland -5 o Minnesota 10.40pts @ 1.96 All from Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 2 seems to working like a charm, tried to do it myself last night and all i got was boston -11 spread and portland -5 as value bets. I didnt get the others that you did. Please advise thank you ever so much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System This is impressive stuff. What is your record for system 2 now then overall, including before you started posting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Ok this thread has me interested as for too long i've relied on tailing and ultimately I don't want to do that any longer if I can find something better. Looking at todays 3 games I can see Portland is a no play straight away due to both teams playing last night. Not checked missing players yet (which site do you find best for this?) but I work out the Denver - SAS game as so: 18/30 *1000 = 600 21/29 *1000 = 724 600-724= -124 -124/20 = -6.2 -1.5 spread -7.7 +3 homecourt = -4.7 So still a play on the Spurs but not by anywhere near as crazy numbers haha! Easy to confuse with that formula. At least it was for me...:unsure GOT THAT WAAAAAYYY WRONG INITIALLY HAHA!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Ah, am I right in thinking Ginobli is still out so no play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 3, 2008 Author Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Starting Bank: 1000pts Record: 3-8 -16.3 New Bank: 983.7 System 2 Starting Bank: 1000 Record: 11-1 +99.8 New Bank: 1099.8 *Remember if you are betting these plays only use system 2 as system 1 is still very much at the testing stage. Hi Happy Gooner, the record since I started using this formula is 23-3. The reason the record is limited in the number of bets so far is because you are not allowed to use this system until teams play at least 20 games. I like you have relied on tailing people, but what happens when those people dont post anymore? I really think the only way forward is to work hard on developing a system for yourself. I now have systems for Football, NBA and MLB and all of them are proving profitable. Of course you have to put a lot of homework into it but its worth the effort. @ Jeno, I think the reason why you only got Boston and Portland as plays is because you were only using the +10 (favourite) side of the system. Remember if the result is -1 or less then the play is on the underdog. I'll use last nights Atlanta Cleveland game as an example: Clev% = 452 Atl% = 536 452-536 = -84 -84/20 = -4.2 -4.2-5 = -9.2 -9.2+3 = -6.2 Because its less than -1 the play is on Atlanta (the underdog). Atlanta had no important injuries and they didnt play the night before so they qualified. So its +10 or more for a play on the favourite and -1 or less for a play on the underdog. Hope its clear. The record for plays on favourites is 8-1 and on underdogs 15-2. So you can see this formula finds value both on the fav and the dog. Its sometimes hard to get reliable information when it comes to injuries. I usually google the teams city and find a local on-line paper. They usually have info on injuries before the big sports websites. Happygooner your calculations are accurate and now its all down to how you feel about the game. Ginobili is questionalble tonight however so is kenyon martin who is an important player for denver. Also ginobili has been out for 3 games and the spurs have coped well. As you can see from further up the page, San Antonio qualified as a play against Memphis but I didnt play it because Ginobili was out and they ended up winning. If you follow the system rules strictly then this is not a play, however I think I will wait until closer to game time before I make a decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System System 1 Starting Bank: 1000pts Record: 3-8 -16.3 New Bank: 983.7 System 2 Starting Bank: 1000 Record: 11-1 +99.8 New Bank: 1099.8 *Remember if you are betting these plays only use system 2 as system 1 is still very much at the testing stage. Hi Happy Gooner, the record since I started using this formula is 23-3. The reason the record is limited in the number of bets so far is because you are not allowed to use this system until teams play at least 20 games. I like you have relied on tailing people, but what happens when those people dont post anymore? I really think the only way forward is to work hard on developing a system for yourself. I now have systems for Football, NBA and MLB and all of them are proving profitable. Of course you have to put a lot of homework into it but its worth the effort. @ Jeno, I think the reason why you only got Boston and Portland as plays is because you were only using the +10 (favourite) side of the system. Remember if the result is -1 or less then the play is on the underdog. I'll use last nights Atlanta Cleveland game as an example: Clev% = 452 Atl% = 536 452-536 = -84 -84/20 = -4.2 -4.2-5 = -9.2 -9.2+3 = -6.2 Because its less than -1 the play is on Atlanta (the underdog). Atlanta had no important injuries and they didnt play the night before so they qualified. So its +10 or more for a play on the favourite and -1 or less for a play on the underdog. Hope its clear. The record for plays on favourites is 8-1 and on underdogs 15-2. So you can see this formula finds value both on the fav and the dog. Its sometimes hard to get reliable information when it comes to injuries. I usually google the teams city and find a local on-line paper. They usually have info on injuries before the big sports websites. Happygooner your calculations are accurate and now its all down to how you feel about the game. Ginobili is questionalble tonight however so is kenyon martin who is an important player for denver. Also ginobili has been out for 3 games and the spurs have coped well. As you can see from further up the page, San Antonio qualified as a play against Memphis but I didnt play it because Ginobili was out and they ended up winning. If you follow the system rules strictly then this is not a play, however I think I will wait until closer to game time before I make a decision. You know it's strange but the minute I see this posted here and you mention you got it from another forum I just happened to be looking over at another forum. Low and behold, what did I see haha??? Wonder if it is the same one. Anyway, would love to hear what you've devised for football. If you've been hanging around the gloryhunters forum you may well have see something i've been tracking myself and overs/unders which has a very good strike rate. At the moment it is reliant on the data and games highlighted at a particular website but at least if the site close I have a springboard from which to start again knowing the data it works off. Going back to system 2 I had heard it has been around 7 or 8 years and provides a strike rate around 70%. Phenomenal if that's the case! Pm me if you want to know where else I found it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Yes i see where i was going wrong thank you for that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 3, 2008 Author Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Yeah I'm sure its the same system mate. Not to sure if I believe the 70% strike rate over 7 years but I hope its true!!! My football system is in another of my threads in this forum. I have only started tracking it here for the last 4-5 weeks and its slightly down however it has had positive results since September so hopefully it will start performing again soon. I dont really post much at other sites but im sure ive seen you around. Do you post with the same name at other places? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Yeah I'm sure its the same system mate. Not to sure if I believe the 70% strike rate over 7 years but I hope its true!!! My football system is in another of my threads in this forum. I have only started tracking it here for the last 4-5 weeks and its slightly down however it has had positive results since September so hopefully it will start performing again soon. I dont really post much at other sites but im sure ive seen you around. Do you post with the same name at other places? Yeah it just makes it easier to remember. Most other sites are U.S. based ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Really undecided on whether to play this. Thing is I have a free £25.00 bet with bet365 which I need to play by 07/01/2008. It's one of those match your stake jobs so i'd need to lay down £25.00 myself first. Can't think of any other system with a record like this has had recently. Almost scares me actually. Then you have the fact that Spurs are 5-6 away from home which doesn't fill me with the greatest of confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alense Posted January 3, 2008 Author Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System No play tonight. Just read this http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/basketball/nba/spurs/stories/MYSA010308.07C.spursnotebook.en.2a2d32a.html So no Ginobil, no play. No play for the other system either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Cheers for posting that. Something about it doesn't feel right so i'm going to leave it. Don't want to waste my free bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Hello again Alense You wouldn't believe it but I have just found this system being discussed on yet another forum. Seems like it has come out of nowhere and all the rage right now. The thing is, there seems to be huge amounts of confusion running around as to how calculation works. What is a play, what isn't...etc etc.... Do you think you could pm me to let me know the source of your findings? Who's to say what is correct and what is not when so many people are discussing the same thing but with minor differences. Cheers gooner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Forgetting all of the above, working through the calculations, I get Atl, NO & Kings. It is my understanding Kings have injuries therefore plays would be... Atlanta +2.5 New Orleans +3.5 Do you concur? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Remember that I`ve got an excel file to help with calculations for system 2. Just drop your emails if you want it and i`ll share it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Remember that I`ve got an excel file to help with calculations for system 2. Just drop your emails if you want it and i`ll share it Would be awesome. I'll pm you now. But I can't. How can I let you have my email? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System how do i send my email so can get the spreadsheet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System what happened to your thread cyraxro if it was doin 81% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeno Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System what is this pm i dont get it sorry im new Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by Deleted Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Im new to this forum , i don`t know how to send a pm so write to me on mine: [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System Where's Alense then? Well I just staked £25.00 on one game so I could use my free bet from bet365 for the other. Fingers crossed a 1-1 worst case scenario!:hope Now just need to find a stream to watch the first game.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benko77 Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 Re: Alense's NBA 'Guess the line' System I am a little late :( But I got: Atl +2,5 Sac +7,5 NO +3 Did not check for injuires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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