2hcb Posted October 6, 2007 Author Share Posted October 6, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 What really gets me Cymro (again leaving betting to one side) isn't the results, some times the oppositon can just play well and desreve to win like Cardiff in the 1st game, it's the crap rugby we've been playing. As I said except for Glasgow it's 2 tries in 4 games, wtf? with all the money that's gone into this squad? Other sides have world cup callups aswell, it's not a real excuse. I'm not even convinced having our wc players back will help that much, maybe we'll go from narrow losses to narrow wins with a stronger pack and Hook kicking (had he played yesterday we'd have won for sure) but I still don't see any sign that we've got anything extra available to beat the top sides in europe. If plan A, dominate upfront and squeeze penalties doesn't work all we cna really do is throw the ball to Shane and hope he produces some individual magic. That sort of gameplan doesn't win you Heineken Cups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted October 6, 2007 Share Posted October 6, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Mate I agree with what you're saying, there shouldn't be such an effect of losing internationals but that's the road Cuddy et al have gone down spending so much money on 4 second rows, Phillips etc. When you think though you could put out a side of: Byrne, Walker, Parker, Henson, Williams, Hook, Marshall, D Jones, Bennett, A Jones, Evans, Wyn Jones, J Thomas, Holah, Tiatia with Bishop, Connor, Phillips, Roberts, B Williams, Hibbard, Gough, Cockbain, R Jones, Pugh and Tandy all capable of coming in and doing a job around those other guys then you have the raw material to compete in Europe. Whether Jones can get you there is another matter, but one big difference for me is that you have a genuine top class openside this year, who can help you play an attacking game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted October 6, 2007 Author Share Posted October 6, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Well I'll wait and see, but nohting in these first few games has told me that we're going to do anything differently from last year, bash, bash, bash with the forwards and when we meet a side who can stand up to it we're clueless. Still it's only fair to give him a chance to prove me wrong with the full side out but I'm not even that confident of us getting out of our group now whereas I was at the start of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted October 10, 2007 Share Posted October 10, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Assessment of weekend's games based on the ELO ratings: Home Away Match Forecast Estimated Handicap (Home Team) Estimated Home Odds Estimated Away Odds Blues Connacht Home -15.5 1.14 6.00 Edinburgh Dragons Home -1.5 1.74 2.01 Glasgow Leinster Away 1.0 1.91 1.80 Scarlets Ulster Home -4.5 1.55 2.31 Ospreys Munster Home -5.0 1.53 2.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted October 11, 2007 Share Posted October 11, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 One ML bet for me so far for tomorrow Scarlets - 74 points @ 1.53 with Hills - :hope Reasoning can be found on: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/s...t=54267&page=4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted October 12, 2007 Share Posted October 12, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Into week 6 we go with the teams starting to resemble something like first choice lineups. Cardiff take on Connacht at home and have named Jenkins, Williams and Shanklin in the team, no Nicky Robinson in the squad though which is a concern, should be an easy win but not sure we will cover the 16pt handicap. Two bets interest me this weekend, Ospreys to beat Munster which is on Sunday, but also tonight I fancy a small bet on the Dragons to win in Edinburgh. The Dragons despatched Ulster pretty comfortably at home last week and are strengthened further by the return of Charvis and Owen. Their team is looking a bit more settled and certainly has enough to win in Scotland tonight. Edinburgh have no Scottish internationals back as the disinterest towards the Magners League continues. Hopefully this will be the last week of understrength teams being put out. 4pts Dragons to beat Edinburgh @ 5/4 (Boyles) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted October 12, 2007 Author Share Posted October 12, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Leinster produced a brilliant performance in their 1st game to see off Cardiff at the Arms Park. They will be stinging after their thrashing at home last week. They have a key world cup man back in Shane Horgan and whilst Glasgow have been reasonable as of yet, they stumbled past Connacht last week and I'm going to go for Leinster to bounce back tonight with a generous stand out price Leinster @ 4/3 (Sporting Bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted October 12, 2007 Author Share Posted October 12, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 ah well there you go. I've been slagginf off Edinburgh all season, gone against them twice and lost but ofcourse NGD go and win tonight :eyes. Nice one Cymro. Very disapopinted Leinster couldn't hold out, Glasgow scoring a try to win it in the 4th minute of stoppage time :cry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted October 12, 2007 Share Posted October 12, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Unlucky tonight 2hcb seems like we both picked value away wins and only one could hold out. Keep picking results like that and I'm sure you'll be OK. Quite tempted by your boys against Munster on Sunday, looking at the two teams the handicap of 6 should be easy to cover, but the Ospreys are an unpredictable lot. What are your thoughts on this one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted October 13, 2007 Author Share Posted October 13, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 my thoughts are the team looks strong with Shane, Phillips, Gough, Jones, JT et all included. On paper we are far better than the side Munster have put out just like we were vs Edinburgh and Llanelli :eyes I notice we've been backed out to -7/8. As an Ospreys fan I'm wary but at the end of the day i'd rather be on our side of that cap at home. Seeing as I have Munster for the league I may have a small cap bet on us perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted October 14, 2007 Author Share Posted October 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Ospreys 16-3 Munster - Anyone see the game? Sounds like the typical dull play from both sides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted October 14, 2007 Share Posted October 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 I didn't bother betting on the game in the end and in some ways I'm glad I didn't as the Ospreys are still not reliable enough in my eyes (which surprises me). This match summed up what is wrong with the Magners League, Ospreys played well for about 15 minutes and won easily, this isn't going to prepare anyone for European/international rugby. Far too many mistakes and only Byrne and the young lad Owen at 10 really did anything of note. For an 18 year old he looked pretty good, another young talent for Welsh rugby to ruin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted October 26, 2007 Author Share Posted October 26, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 3 close, difficult games to call tonight, no bets for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted October 26, 2007 Author Share Posted October 26, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 well there we go, I can confidently say any bet I would have considered for today would have lost. 3 games, 3 draws so nobody covering any caps and I don't think i'd have been taking the +1s and 2s that were floating around for the underdogs. absolutely brilliant night for the bookies i suspect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted October 26, 2007 Share Posted October 26, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 3 close' date=' difficult games to call tonight, no bets for me.[/quote'] Nice call 2hcb - you were certainly right about there being 3 close games. Amazing results tonight with the 3 draws, particularly as there has only been 8 draws in total in the ML since Sept 2004! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted October 26, 2007 Share Posted October 26, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Absolutely amazing results tonight, to see one draw is rare enough but 3 from 3, incredible. No Magners League next weekend, instead the far more appealing prospect of the EDF (and then the Heineken Cup I believe) so hopefully things will return to normal in about a month's time. Edit: I tell a lie, the Irish and Scottish teams are playing next weekend which will level things out at 6 games each, with the next full set of fixtures on the 23rd Nov. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAC Posted November 26, 2007 Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Hi everyone, been away for a while, back again, new blog as well so all my picks will be there should I not be able post here. http://bettingonice-part2.blogspot.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted January 1, 2008 Share Posted January 1, 2008 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 DRAGONS VS LlANELLI 10pts win Llanelli -3 4/5 Stan James. Both teams fielding understrength teams but Llanelli should have too much class and win quite comfartably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Wall Posted February 16, 2008 Share Posted February 16, 2008 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Leinster vs Blues Leinster welcome back a number of Irish fringe players and the influential Shane Horgan, and with teh home advatnage will be favourates in many peoples eyes. BUT they are missing a number of key players who are still in the main Irish squad Compare this to Cardiff who are only really missing Gethin and martyn williams to Wales (as well as N Robinson to injury). Shan klin as well but in Jamie Robinson they have a player I would easily put on a par with @ 13, if not ahead. The most influential players at the Blues are martyn, who is missing, but also Blair, rush and tito... all of whom are available. Odds wise I think the bookies are just about right but I do have the suspicion teh Blues my edge this one. Blues win for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Wall Posted February 16, 2008 Share Posted February 16, 2008 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Tip Detail SportRugby EventMagners League SelectionOspreys -10 Strength8/10 Date16/02/2008 Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 1.90 (Back) ReasoningAnother tough call. Connaught are, as ever, unnchanged through the international period and so can put out a settled, strong team. the ospreys however are down to almost their 2nd team, missing their first choice front 5, 6, 10,11, 12,13 and 15. However looking at who is left there are some real stand out stars who have been teh best players for the O's. Marshall, Tiatia, Holah, Walker. Add to that some extremelly talented youngsters in Ben Lewis (a future welsh 7 if ever I saw one), Spratt and Hibbard, as well as some very experienced old campaigners like Connor and Taylor (not forgetting teh suprise recall of Phillips) and you still have a very potent backrow and backline. The front 5 will be a tough call. Most of the Ospreys pack can only be called journeymen, but connaughts strength also lies away from there and shouldnt be much better. Marshall at 15 is a suprise but for me could be a masterstroke. he is always busy and has a great eye for the gap. Excited to see how this works out. For me this game will come down to 2 things. First The O's defence should be strong and is unlikely to be beaten many times by Connaught (connor, marshall and taylor are all vocal defenders who will kepp things organised) and in attack Phillips will be hungry, Connor has been breaking well when playing, and the back 3 should be busy and looking to get involved. Ospreys by 2 or 3 scores so will beat the handicap of -10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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