Magners Celtic League 2007/08

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 red1 http://www.magnersleague.com/live :ok do you follow the ML then? who's your team? Cardiff and Connacht were comfortable, but Ospreys missed a last minute penalty to beat Ulster, didn't see it of course but I'd imagine it was a case of us playign crap but staying in it somehow throughout and with us not being able to pinch the win our title bid is almost over after 3 games. It does pu the fivefold on track though with France comfortable winners, just England to come now and if Samoa beat them it'll more than compensate!! Congrats to wumpking and Cymro on your picks also.

[Wumpking]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Cheers 2hcb. Your fivefold is looking good - :hope. I've backed England tomorrow to beat Samoa as they are a system pick for me so will be cheering them on with you :loon!

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08

Cheers 2hcb. Your fivefold is looking good - :hope. I've backed England tomorrow to beat Samoa as they are a system pick for me so will be cheering them on with you :loon!

cheering them on? not quite wump! I'm for the Samoans 100%!! My winnign fivefold is just a decent consolation prize. Seriously it'd be the funniest thing ever if Samoa knocked out England exceding when they beat us even :$. But I don't see it atall, their lineout is a shambles and they are not disciplined enough. England should take them apart upfront, if I didn't have this fivefold already going i might be tempted to take England on the cap, infact I may still do so.

[Cymro]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 2hcb, nice pick with the 5fold, amazing how a few certainties and one close result can end up giving such a good return, nice one :clap. Was glad to see Cardiff run in the tries tonight and also Connacht making light work of the Dragons, takes me up to 8.18pts profit after 3 rounds of the ML.

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 The fivefold is in :) Had every intention of backing Leinster -15 today against Edinburgh but was unable to get the bet on, damn lucky as that game hit the cap (23-8). Elsewhere Munster put Llanelli away 26-16 which is a good start to that outright, and reflects very poorly on Ospreys efforts against the Scarlets last time round.

[Wumpking]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Preliminary assessment of the weekend games based on the ELO ratings:

Date	Home	Away	Estimated Handicap (Home Team)	Estimated Home Odds	Estimated Away Odds
28/09/2007	Blues	Leinster	-4.0	1.57	2.25
28/09/2007	Edinburgh	Ulster	0.5	1.87	1.82
28/09/2007	Scarlets	Connacht	-13.5	1.17	5.25
28/09/2007	Dragons	Munster	2.5	2.15	1.64
29/09/2007	Ospreys	Glasgow	-10.5	1.23	3.87

[Cymro]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08

Friday 28 September 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">BPP
Gwent Dragons v Munster (18:15 BST)	1.94	24.00	2.25	101%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicapHalf-time/Full-timeFirst Tryscorer- - -Last TryscorerFirst Scoring PlayFirst Team to ScoreFirst Team to Score a TryFirst Try TimeHalf-time HandicapHighest Scoring HalfLast Team to ScoreTo Win Both HalvesTotal PointsTotal Points Over/UnderTotal Team TriesTotal Tries Under/Over
Llanelli Scarlets v Connacht Rugby (19:10 BST)	1.36	24.00	4.00	103%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap- - -Half-time/Full-timeFirst Scoring PlayFirst Team to ScoreHalf-time HandicapHalf-time Total Points Over/UnderHighest Scoring HalfLast Team to ScoreTotal PointsTotal Points Over/Under
Cardiff Blues v Leinster (19:30 BST)	1.40	24.00	3.50	105%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap- - -Half-time/Full-timeFirst Scoring PlayFirst Team to ScoreHalf-time HandicapHalf-time Total Points Over/UnderHighest Scoring HalfLast Team to ScoreTotal PointsTotal Points Over/Under
Edinburgh v Ulster (19:30 BST)	2.66	23.00	1.72	100%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicapHalf-time/Full-timeFirst Tryscorer- - -Last TryscorerFirst Scoring PlayFirst Team to ScoreHalf-time HandicapHighest Scoring HalfLast Team to ScoreTotal PointsTotal Points Over/Under
Sunday 30 September 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="middle">BPP
Neath-Swansea Ospreys v Glasgow Rugby (15:00 BST)	1.26	30.00	4.40	106%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap

Average Handicaps Dragons (-2) Scarlets (-9) Cardiff (-8) Ulster (-5) Ospreys (-11) I expect Cardiff to win tonight and chase the bonus point to continue our excellent start to the season. It will be a lot tougher than last week as Leinster have a much stronger side than Glasgow (Jennings, Cullen, Kearney, Fitzgerald and Heaslip all quality). No real value on the outright but our team looks stronger than last week's and should just beat the handicap, pretty close though. Dragons-Munster is a tough one to predict, fancy the Dragons to pip it but not confident enough to bet on that. Connacht against Llanelli is a different matter, Boyles give Connacht a 10pt start which, given the way they disposed of the Dragons last weekend and Llanelli's poor start to the season, looks very appealing. Don't think much of Llanelli's backs, even with Regan King, so hard to see them running away with this one. Edinburgh are as high as 13/8 to win at home, which would appear to be value given the propensity of home wins in ML. Looking down their teamsheet though I only recognise about 3 players and Murrayfield inhabited by 2,000 people is hardly intimidating. No bet. Glasgow look a decent shout to stay within 11 of Ospreys on Sunday, thought they were OK against us and now is a good time to take on the Os. Cue 2hcb to tell me that Sunday will see the start of the Ospreys assault on the league and a tryfest down at the liberty! ;). Will mull this over on the weekend. 5pts Connact (+10) to beat Llanelli @ 10/11 Boylesports

[red1]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 red1 http://www.magnersleague.com/live :ok do you follow the ML then? who's your team? hi there everyone, thanks for the link, will see how it works well to be honest I am trying to follow the ML, but since I am from Slovakia a no one is watching rugby here it is quite difficult. I rely completely on websites like this one, official web sites of the teams and have to listen the games through BBC livestream :lol, so don´t take me for an expert. Anyway I enjoy reading thoughts of you guys so keep up the good work :notworthy I can´t find some live match coverages on internet and TV channels in this part of Europe ignore the rugby, so could anyone help me with some links? I am using sopcast to watch World Cup right now, but I have not seen ML matches in there.. My favorite team is Ulster :cow

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08

Dragons-Munster is difficult to call, it'll be hard fought and scrappy and I'm content just to hope Munster win for the outright. Llanelli haven't clicked yet and a home game against Connacht could be the ideal chance. But Connacht are a settled unit (few RWC players) and are dogged. Cardiff have started like a train and the strength of their pack should dominate Leinster but their ability to finish moves still hasn't convinced me they can cover (or get a bp) against Leinster. Leaning towards Ulster -3 as Edinburgh look hopeless and I barely recognise a single name on their teamsheet. Those are my thoughts, might not be able to get back and post my exact bets, but at the moment this double looks the best option, possibly with England thrown in aswell!! Cardiff & Llanelli @ 1.90 (bet 365)

[Crass Ball]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Hi DAC pointed me to this forum. I'm apparently one of the mad Leinster lads. I've been reading this topic with interest and congrats to those who've picked well to date. I'll pin my colours to the mast early and suggest that Leinster will beat the cap this weekend (and may even win even with their record in Wales). Watching them last week suggests that a number of the kids in the backs will push for places over the stars after the WC and will be looking to show well before the HEC. They played ok and should have won by more than they did against Edinburgh. They'll be better this week. The pack is infinitely better than before. I've been impressed with the bits I've seen of Cardiff, but Leinster are defensively tight and always threatening. I've been known to be wrong though.

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 :welcome Crass Ball! Thanks for your comments and please do stick around, it'd be great to have some Irish input! Speaking of DAC I haven't seen him lately hope he hasn't abandoned us! Anyway, on Leinster tonight, I remember well their performances at the tail end of last season away from home (with all the big guns playing) and will hesitate to back them away from home against a good side. Anyway good luck.

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Not a good night for me, Crass Ball was spot on about Leinster and they took a bonus point win away from the Arms Park, impressive. Edinburgh also managed a win so i was also wrong about Ulster. Didn't have enough bravery to take Llanelli on the cap so they ofcourse stormed to a 34-11 win. Only good point was a spectacular Munster fightback from 0-16 down to beat Dragons so they move up to 4th after only 2 games played.

[Cymro]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Not much fun for me either tonight buddy, first I get to watch Cardiff throw the game away against Leinster and then come home to find the Scarlets blew away Connacht which I was not expecting (obviously!). Welcome to PL by the way Crass ball. Don't know if you got to see tonight's game at all but it was very strange. Cardiff dominated for large parts only to concede 4 soft, but well-taken, tries if that makes any sense. Not sure the highlights would do this game justice. Two of these were when Leinster had a man down, one from an intercept by the hooker Jackman and another when we went to sleep on a quick lineout. Real basic stuff and a massive wake up call for everyone at Cardiff. Leinster the best team I've seen at CAP by some distance, but I can't help feeling we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory tonight. Back to reality for us Cardiff fans!

[Crass Ball]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Hi No, I didn't see the game at all tonight and the England win really didn't compensate... I'm not suprised that Cardiff dominated but I was very impressed with Leinster's defence against Edinburgh (late try aside). A BP win is an excellent result which I wouldn't have dared predict. Elsewhere, I tipped Munster to win the league but I may revise that. Cheika is under pressure to deliver something this year and may go all out to grab the league while also going for the HEC. Munster's signings this year would suggest that they are going to be competitive in the HEC again but I suspect they'll be taking the league a lot more seriously than before.

[Wumpking]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Preliminary assessment of the weekend games based on the ELO ratings:

Date	Home	Away	Match Forecast	Estimated Handicap (Home Team)	Estimated Home Odds	Estimated Away Odds
05/10/2007	Edinburgh	Ospreys	Away	0.5	1.87	1.82
05/10/2007	Glasgow	Connacht	Home	-11.5	1.21	4.25
05/10/2007	Leinster	Scarlets	Home	-8.5	1.31	3.37
05/10/2007	Munster	Blues	Home	-5.5	1.51	2.44
06/10/2007	Dragons	Ulster	Away	1.5	2.01	1.74

[Wumpking]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 So far for the weekend I am on Glasgow, Leinster and Munster on the outrights. Reasoning is on: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54267&page=4 I'm also having a punt on the supremacy spreads for the Glasgow v Connacht match as I think the current quote for the Glasgow supremacy at 3-6 is a bit low. Bet therefore is 3 points @ 6 with Sporting Index.

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Wouldn't argue with that wumpking but I remember this fixture lasts eason and being on Glasgow at a similar cap of -5 I think and they turned a 19 point lead into a 5 point win in the last 15. it cost me a handicap treble (i was naive back then and took a ML handicap treble every friday along with my singles!) so I'm not tempting fate. Didn't get to see Ospreys last week but it sounded like they finally showed something. On paper atleast the side is now beginning to like like the force it is with Gavin Henson, Steve Tandy, Ian Evans, Huw Bennett, Mike Phillips and Ian Gough (the latter two for the first time) all included. Edinburgh just look very weak to me and I was suprised to see them win over Ulster so comfortably last week. Ospreys are 10/11 recently against Scottish sides and this will be Stephane Terblanche's last game and the team will want a good send off for a good servant of the region. Ospreys look stronger in every department and with home advantage less of a factor at a desreted Murrayfield I think we can get another win here and the cap offered by skybet is low enough to warrant a bet. Ospreys -2 @ 10/11 (Skybet)

[Crass Ball]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Hi I like the Os -2 also. Munster -4 with Skybet is also tempting. They've got a couple of the unused internationals back on the bench who'll be itching to get involved when they come on. Leinster have a very interesting backrow of Jennings, Gleeson and Heaslip out tonight with a backline brimming with confidence at the moment. It's a cracker of a day so I expect to see the ball being thrown around a good bit against a less than full strength Scarlets team. Over 43 points @ 10/11 with bet365 looks like a gimme.

[Cymro]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Thoughts on Cardiff first, I think we can write this one off tonight as last week's game will have taken a lot of momentum away and Tito is not playing tonight, he has been an inspiration and fixed the two problem areas of our game single-handedly; lineout and restarts. Only Jamie Robinson returns from the WC players and this won't strengthen the side all that much. As Crass ball says, Munster to beat a low handicap looks a good bet. Not convinced by Ospreys enough to back them away from home, pack doesn't look that strong and am wary of Edinburgh after last week's result. Plus Andy Robinson is their coach now! :lol Who knows what might happen? My very unadventurous bet for the weekend is a double on Leinster and Glasgow to win at home, pays just over 10/11. Not going to go into too much detail, have seen both sides live and they are pretty useful without their World Cup stars. Home advantage massive as ever, especially for Glasgow I feel as they have had two unsuccessful trips to Wales to start the season, and will be desperate for a win. 10pts Double (bet365): Glasgow @ 1/2 Leinster @ 2/7 May have a look at Dragons to beat Ulster on Sunday as they have Kevin Morgan and Sweeney back to give a bit of class to their backline. Ulster largely without their WC players. GL all:hope

[Wumpking]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08

Leinster have a very interesting backrow of Jennings, Gleeson and Heaslip out tonight with a backline brimming with confidence at the moment. It's a cracker of a day so I expect to see the ball being thrown around a good bit against a less than full strength Scarlets team. Over 43 points @ 10/11 with bet365 looks like a gimme.

Interesting call, Crass Ball. Last 3 meetings have all easily beaten this:

25/03/2005	Leinster	31	Scarlets	25
14/04/2006	Leinster	30	Scarlets	22
26/01/2007	Leinster	44	Scarlets	34

With the good weather, I'd agree that tries/points should flow. Last time out there was 10 tries scored and 7 the time before. I'm going to take a punt on the spreads therefore, buying Total Points - 3 points @ 48 and buying Shirts - 1 point @ 55 both with Sporting Index.

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 I was going to come on here and make the same call about Leinster-Llaneli overs, there were no lines up when I posted last night, I totally agree it should go over. Cymro's double also looks good.

[Wumpking]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 A grim night for me on the outrights with Munster and Leinster both losing equating to a 138 point loss. Glasgow just about managed to scrape the win, so won 31.5 points profit on the outright but at the same time lost 15 points on the supremacy spread. Saving grace for me on the night was the high score in the Leinster v Scarlets match resulting in a 81 points profit on the buy of total points and 41 points profit on the buy of shirts numbers. Overall result for the night was a 0.5 gain!

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Getting seriously annoyed with Ospreys now. Poor results are one thing, especially with so many players at the RWC, but baring the glasgow game 2 tries in 4 matches is pathetic for a side that is reigning champions. Obviously didn't see the game tonight so don't know if I underestimated Edinburgh but we had a kick to win it late on and for the 3rd match this season it was missed. Thit time Andrew Bishop was kicking instead of the flyhalf Owen or Henson, will someone explain that to me please? Anyway the overs saved me, great performance by Llanelli there! Well done wumpking for being brave enough to take on the spread, handsome returns for you, for me a slight loss tonight and Munster were edged out by Cardiff.

[Cymro]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Jesus christ, a disaster of a night for me. Can't pick my nose at the moment when it comes to the Magners League. Really thought Leinster were a sure thing, even at 2/7, but they squandered a lot of good possession in the first half, still only 5 points down at the break though methinks plenty of time. I then leave the house for half an hour in which time they have shipped 30 points, well done to everyone on the overs always nice when they come in by a distance. Three lessons from tonight: 1) Don't listen to me when I talk about Cardiff, 2 weeks in a row now I've got it pretty badly wrong. Not too unhappy tonight though. 2) Betting against Llanelli is not such a good idea, lost 3 out of the 4 times I've done this. 3) This year's Magners League is incredibly unpredictable. 2 shock away wins tonight after Leinster last week. Edinburgh won at home also at odds-against last week so there must be plenty of money to be made backing the underdogs. Hopefully things will settle down though.

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 I feel we'll see things settle down once the world cup is over. But looking at the respective performances of Leinster and Cardiff this week and last week it's very strange to say the least. Cymro, I wouldn't say it's a disaster for you, you just had the one loser and your side did the business out in Munster and open up a nice gap at the top, Ospreys would appear to be out of it already :@.

[Crass Ball]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Hi Not a good night and I'm having a pretty bad morning too... But the overs came in and saved me after I went after Munster. Aren't leagues great?

[Wumpking]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Only ML bet for me today is a very uneasy outright bet on the Dragons - 51 points @ 1.63 with Betfair. Reasoning can be found on: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54267&page=4

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Can't call Dragons - Ulster either way.

[Cymro]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 2hcb, separating the betting from the supporting as there are obviously different emotions. Cardiff being top after last night is a real bonus and maybe points towards a bit more resolve in the team this year. Still think we'll fall away a bit when the WC players are back. As for the betting I was just really annoyed to have lost a 2/7 shot by such a margin, but given that experience I'll be giving those sorts of bets a wide berth for a few weeks now. As for the Ospreys, you will improve I am sure, the difference between your stars and backup players is probably too big in certain positions, but once you get all the Wales boys and Holah in your side you'll be pretty formidable even without Ryan. You have to get them in for the Munster game next Sunday though I would have thought. Wumpking, I think you'll be OK with your Dragons bet, Ulster side doesn't look strong and Dragons have Morgan, Sweeney and Owen in the squad as they look for their first home win. After botching up against Cardiff and Munster I think they'll do it this time around.

[Cymro]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08

Getting seriously annoyed with Ospreys now. Poor results are one thing' date=' especially with so many players at the RWC, but baring the glasgow game 2 tries in 4 matches is pathetic for a side that is reigning champions. Obviously didn't see the game tonight so don't know if I underestimated Edinburgh but we had a kick to win it late on and for the 3rd match this season it was missed. Thit time Andrew Bishop was kicking instead of the flyhalf Owen or Henson, will someone explain that to me please?[/quote'] Saw this and thought Lyn Jones' tactical innovation had gone another step too far. However, on ML live scores it says Owen took all the kicks, rather than Bishop per BBC (who go on to say he was an unused sub :lol). Still begs the question why a match-winning kick was not taken by the resident superstar (and celebrity Dad :tongue2) rather than someone playing in his first ML game (I presume)?