2hcb Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 http://www.magnersleague.com/ Currently, all the attention of the Rugby world is (quite rightly)on the World Cup, but domestic action will continue alongside events in France and with the Magners League kicking off on 31st August, I thought it was about time for a thread for the 2007/08 season!! TeamBest Bookies Odds4.00Ospreys:void(0)'>Ospreys35.00Leinster:void(0)'>Leinster4WH.gif">7.00Llanelli Scarlets:void(0)'>Llanelli Scarlets6WH.gif">7.00Ulster:void(0)'>Ulster68.00Cardiff Blues:void(0)'>Cardiff Blues711.00Munster:void(0)'>Munster10PP.gif">34.00Glasgow Warriors:void(0)'>Glasgow Warriors3351.00Edinburgh:void(0)'>Edinburgh50WH.gif">67.00Dragons:void(0)'>Dragons66251.00Connacht:void(0)'>Connacht250WH.gif"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> For what it’s worth here’s my early assessment of all 10 teams. Feel free to comment if you disagree... Title Contenders: Ospreys 3/1 (Last season 1st) Ok I may be biased, but in my view Ospreys are definitely the best team in the league. When at full strength I would back them to beat anyone in Europe at home and with stars like Justin Marshall, Ryan Jones, James Hook, Gavin Henson and Shane Williams they are a cut above most sides in the ML. Thanks to their financial clout they also have the biggest squad in the league, emphasised by an Ospreys second string XV defeating Australia A last year. This will only be increased by the signings of Mike Phillips and Ian Gough who could both find themselves on the bench. There are also strong rumours of the arrival of Marty Holah from New Zealand, regarded by many as the second best #7 in the world which would be a massive signing. However, this may not necessarily translate into success in the ML. Despite the controversial omissions of Henson and Cockbain from the Welsh world cup squad they have still lost a large number of players and there is always the danger of several of them coming back injured. Another factor is coach Lyn Jones. Let’s just say I’m not a fan and his team selections are regularly baffling. It is very possible that he will not take the league seriously at all this year in pursuit of European glory and with an easier pool than in recent years this may allow Ospreys a long Heineken Cup run to which he will devote most of his resources. Another run in the Anglo-Welsh cup would also probably take priority over the league. Undoubtedly the best squad in the league and whilst rightly installed as favourites by the bookies I would be very wary of backing Ospreys. Leinster 4/1 (Last season 3rd) Leinster threw away the league last season and will be hugely keen to make amends this time around. They have a very exciting back line containing the likes of Brian O’Driscoll, Gordon D’Arcy, Shane Horgan and Felipe Contepomi, they shouldn’t be hit to badly by Dennis Hickie’s retirement due to the emergence of Luke Fitzgerald. When these guys are playing they can tear apart any side in Europe if provided with enough possession. This was a very big if last season as their pack was regularly bullied out of games and they seemed to lack the heart for a scrap. The signing of Shane Jennings from Leicester will definitely help and they have brought in an Argentinean prop and Springbok veteran Ollie Le Roux to help at scrumtime. Whether these new signings can bolster their forward effort will be central to their fortunes. One thing in their advantage is that they normally pick close to their strongest available lineup for most ML games. They are likely to be concentrating on the league for most of the season and if their glittering backline survives the world cup intact and the new signings in the pack have the desired effect this could well be their turn at last. Llanelli 6/1 (Last season 4th) The Scarlets played some breathtaking rugby at times last season in reaching the semi finals of the Heineken Cup. This run took it’s toll eventually on their league campaign but with a very tough HEC group (Munster, Wasps and Clermont) this time around they may target success in the ML. Their halfback pairing of Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones is second to none and Regan King was imo the ML player of the season last year. Whilst their pack is not the best, with a backrow of Easterby, Popham and Thomas they can compete in the ML and their backs make full use of whatever ball they do get. They have not made any really impressive signings in the summer as of yet and their squad is on the smallside, so they struggle during the 6N and probably will do during RWC but on their day they can beat anyone. The Scarlets’ small squad will need good luck with injuries, but if they get it expect them to challenge once again. Munster 10/1 (Last season 6th) At this stage last season Munster were widely regarded as the best side in Europe, but here they are available by as much as 10/1 to win the ML. The bookies have put up this price as the expect Munster to continue with their trend in recent years of not taking the league that seriously. They have 12 players in Ireland’s world cup 30 and their squad will definitely be stretched throughout the season. However, despite some torrid performances in the league last year they still finished only 10pts away from top spot. This season they find themselves along with Llanelli in the HEC group of death and an early exit could well see them look for silverware in the league this year as I’m sure their fans are tired of seeing second string sides put in poor performances. Their pack is formidable with the likes of Paul O’Connell, Denis Leamy and David Wallace all world class and the signings of Brian Carney and Rua Tipoki should help their backline become a more dangerous outfit so they could mount a proper challenge this season. Possibly stung into putting more into the league by some poor performances last year, Munster could well be good value here with the quality of players they have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Possible Challengers: Ulster 6/1 (Last season 5th) Ulster put up a disapointing defence of their title last season. Despite the emergence of new talents like Andrew Trimble and Neil Best in the green shirt of Ireland they never really performed baring a 30point rout of French giants Toulouse in the HEC. Victims of their success somewhat as they now lose more players to Ireland than they did when they won the title but the fact that veteran fly half David Humphreys can no longer dominate games the way he used to has upset their pattern. Ravenhill will always be a fortress for the Ulstermen and they will most likely be comitted to the league and will put in passionate, physical displays but I just feel they lack the quality in certain areas to challenge the top sides. The signing of Rob Dewey is a good one and he should form a good centre pairing with Andrew Trimble and Neil Best and Stephen Ferris make for a strong backrow unit. The side definately lacks pace and quality in the back three and with questions over Humphreys ability to last the pace Paddy Wallace really has to make the step up this season in partnership with the impressive Isac Boss or they may struggle again. Always consistant and tough to beat at home, but should only come into the title reckoning if the big boys allow them. Cardiff 7/1 (Last season 2nd) Cardiff must be a hugely frustrating team to follow. On paper their side is trophy material with the likes of Wales stars Gethin Jenkins, Martyn Williams, Gareth Thomas and Tom Shanklin aswell as kiwis Ben Blair, Xavier Rush and Paul Tito but the Blues always seem to bottle it when it comes to the crunch. They did so in losing to Llanelli at the tail end of last season and didn't turn up for their Anglo-Welsh semi until too late. For me their weakness is a lack of control and temperament in the side under pressure. I am really not convinced by Nicky Robinson as a fly half and Mike Phillips moving to Ospreys is a big blow. The arrival of Gareth Thomas should help with this, but his recent displays for Wales have not been all that impressive and he seems to be past his best. They often struggle to finish their chances so losing Chris Czekaj to injury will not help that. Cardiff had a good season last year, but I don't expect Dai Young to be able to recreate that this time around especially as they have a favourable HEC draw which could lead to them prioritising Europe over the league. Glasgow 33/1 (Last season 7th) Towards the back end of last season, Glasgow were on fire. They came from behind to very nearly cost Ospreys the title and there is a renewed sense of optimism at the club especially given the turmoil the rest of Scottish rugby finds itself in. They have a very exciting back three lined up in Samoan Lome Fa'atau, Rory Lamont and Thom Evans so should score plenty of tries playing outside experienced signing from Leicester, Daryl Gibson. Number 8 Kelly Brown was Scottish player of the year whilst at Borders last season and he will make the forwards a much more competitive forward unit. The doubts are at halfback where they are yet to find a man to fill the #9 jersey and doubts remain over fly half Dan Parks' consistancy. If Parks fires and the backline stays injury free, Glasgow will continue to improve. Their squad probably isn't big enough to last the distance but I certainly wouldn't have them 33/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Outsiders: Edinburgh 50/1 (Last season 8th) Edinburgh Rugby is an absolute shambles right now and their most immediate concern should be ensuring their survival not thinking about trophies. Having for a long while been Scotland's only decent outfit they were at one stage not going to compete in either the HEC or ML this season. With such upheaval going on behind the scenes, key players like Chris Paterson, Scot Murray, Rob Dewey and Simon Taylor have abandoned the sinking ship. The proposed transfer of Australia fly half Stephen Larkham also looks like falling through. This means Edinburgh will probably have to spend this season rebuilding, fielding alot of youngsters and praying events off the field don't go into complete meltdown. Crippled by political wranglings and departures of key players this will be a long hard season for Edinburgh. Gwent Dragons 66/1 (Last season 9th) Under Paul Turner they performed better last season than their 9th place finish would suggest. They can point to several games in which they were very unlucky and were never an easy opponent for anybody. Rodney Parade is always feisty and big names are given no respect from the Dragons faithful. They enjoyed a great run in the European Challenge cup which ultimately stretched their resources to breaking point. They have lost Gareth Cooper and Ian Gough and Aled Brew return to Ospreys after his loan, but in return have loaned Richard Mustoe and signed Richard Parks and Andy Williams both who should relish regular opportunities to impress the welsh selectors. The emergence of youngsters like Ashley Smith and Jamie Corsi was a big plus for them last time around and their physical style employed by the likes of Colin Charvis and Paul Emerick troubled many sides. They will not be hit badly by Wales call ups other than inspirational fullback Kevin Morgan so can expect to build on last season's encouraging signs. The Dragons are probably slightly weaker than last season and their squad is still wafer thin but they should definately fare the best out of the outsiders. If the rumoured investment does eventually happen they could press on up the table with a couple of quality additions. Connacht 250/1 (Last season 10th) Connacht have made a couple of decent signings in Ireland back Gavin Duffy and flanker Johnny O'Connor who is somewhat of a forgotten man. They have lost fly half Paul Warwick and although it's difficult to see anything but a struggle for the poor relation of the Irish regions they should not be a complete walkover. They should pick up some points during the RWC and 6N which they will not be effected by and can realistically aim to finish off the bottom of the league. What they lack in talent they make up for in team spirit and determination and could overturn some of the bigger sides at home if weakened sides are sent to The Sportsground as Ospreys found out last season. The world cup will advantage them the most and they should get some wins under their belt during that period, after that it will be very tough for them as clearly the weakest team in the division now the Borders are no longer there to compete for that title! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 In terms of making any selections, it's a bit too early at this stage with the league not yet priced up by all bookies and with time still left for new signings to be announced and injuries to occur etc. But I'd say Munster look good value if they decide to go for the league this year and Glasgow could represent each way value. No bets at this stage though as i say. It'd also be good to have a heads up of who will be following the Ml this year and who they support. I'm an Ospreys fan DAC and Wumpking follow Dragons and Cymro is a Blue. Is there anyone else? If there are any other Celtic rugby watchers lurking out there then please come and join us your input would be most welcome!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Superb work 2hcb, you have produced a really insightful and well-put-together write-up which I hope will be the start of a profitable thread for the coming season. Following DAC's exploits last year and the additional input I hope fans of other teams can provide, I'm sure we can take advantage of the bookies' lack of specialist knowledge in this area. Cardiff must be a hugely frustrating team to follow As 2hcb notes I am a fan of Cardiff/Cardiff Blues/Blues whatever you may wish to call them. Don't like to bet on my own team's games but will try and provide as much information here as I can to help other punters. Find it hard to disagree with 2hcb's comments on us at this point but will aim to provide a full season preview after their friendlies finish on the 25th August. Looking at the outrights the World Cup effect has to be considered, most teams will be missing their top players for roughly 6/7 games depending on individual countries' performances but also subsequent rest and conditioning time (Ireland generally more careful than others in this respect). That said I think the Scarlets and Glasgow look decent each way chances at this stage but will hold off betting until nearer the start of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Thanks Cymro! Hope you don't think I was too harsh on the Blues! Important news today is that Marty Holah has signed for the Ospreys!! This certainly improves our side even more as Steve Tandy did well at #7 last year but is not a world class openside like Holah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Nice work buddy, hopefully this'll be the year the Blues finally deliver! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Nice work buddy' date=' hopefully this'll be the year the Blues finally deliver![/quote'] er, yeah, whatever :unsure :lol:lol;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 er, yeah, whatever :unsure :lol:lol;) Didn't think you'd agree somehow!:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Excellent work 2hcb, great write ups on the teams. Coming from Caerphilly, I used to be a Celtic Warriors supporter and like many, were gutted at their untimely demise. Officially, I'm now in the Dragons catchment area (though I'm actually closer geographically to the Arms Park than Rodney Parade!), so its cheering on the Gwent outsiders for me. Cymro, you're certainly right that bookies do not specialise in the ML. This can be exploited hopefully to our advantage. DAC led the way last year on this site with this. Everything from team selection, local weather, etc, that can give an edge should be looked at. I've got a lot of data which I'll gladly share with other forumites in the pursuit of profit! I'll post more info tomorrow as all my stats, etc is on an excel spreadsheet on my works PC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Ok Wumpking, edited! DAC obviously watches Dragons week in week out and he spotted last season that they were clearly being underated week in week out by the bookies which he used to great effect. Ospreys were similarly underated in the HEC last season. Now if we can have a few more posters with specialist knowledge of their own sides on here it would really help matters! Please do upload your stats, but remember with the ML, team selections can be so erratic that it's difficult to follow stats as the match between the two sides one year could have been a title decider at full strength as opposed to the next year where it's a week before an HEC quarter which one side is involved in so the field a second string against a 1st XV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Thanks for that wumpking! Interesting that average total points is only 40.5 with the mark regularly pushing 50pts. I wonder if you (or anyone else) has any data on the match handicaps? I think some teams like Dragons and Connacht must regularly lose matches but beat the handicap. Similarly Ospreys are not a free scoring side (thanks to Lyn Jones' tactics) so I'd imagine we have a poor record of betaing caps over double figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Tonight's news from around the Magners League is that in their friendly, Connacht managed to contain South Africa to a 3-18 loss. Not the Boks first team of course and for this one off match I'm sure ther would have been plenty of motivation, but let this serve as a warning to anyone who tries to take on Connacht in Galway with a hefty cap! Hats off to them. http://www.planetrugby.com/Story/0,18259,3551_2677070,00.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted August 22, 2007 Share Posted August 22, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 You raise a good point 2hcb regarding teams losing but beating the handicap. Italy for example in the 6 nations have a great record of doing exactly this. Unfortunately, I've only got the handicap data for around 20% of last seasons matches in the ML, so can't fully analyse this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAC Posted August 23, 2007 Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Hello chaps. Superb write ups and info 2hcb - top quality. :clap I'm friends with a couple of mad Leinster and Munster fans who really know their stuff and post with them on another non gambling forum, going to invite them over to PL as their knowledge and input are fantastic - together I think we can really make a sucessful and profitable attack on the bookies this season. I forecast a 50 point profit season, at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Hello chaps. Superb write ups and info 2hcb - top quality. :clap I'm friends with a couple of mad Leinster and Munster fans who really know their stuff and post with them on another non gambling forum, going to invite them over to PL as their knowledge and input are fantastic - together I think we can really make a sucessful and profitable attack on the bookies this season. I forecast a 50 point profit season, at least. Thanks DAC, that would be really great to get some proper input on the Irish sides. We know what to expect when they are full strength but local knowledge would really help out during the world cup and 6N. Then all we'd need would be a Scot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 31/08/07 - Blues v Ospreys Based solely on the ML ELO ratings, prices for Friday's opening game between the Blues (1291) v Ospreys (1653) would equate to odds of around: Blues 2.28 Ospreys 1.78 Draw 48.00 However, taking into account the 'home' advantage factor for the ML of approximately 6.5 points, the prices alter to around: Blues 1.65 Ospreys 2.44 Draw 48.00 This would indicate that the Blues should win by around 2 points. 01/09/07 - Scarlets v Dragons For Saturday's game between the Scarlets (1022) v Dragons (594), initial ML ELO prices would be: Scarlets 1.58 Dragons 2.72 Draw 48.00 Again, factoring the 'home' advantage, the prices alter to: Scarlets 1.23 Dragons 5.25 Draw 48.00 Which would indicate a Scarlets win by 11 points. No bookie prices as yet for either of the games or team news. As such we'll review later this week before considering if any value to be obtained in betting on these fixtures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Cardiff 7/1 (Last season 2nd) Cardiff must be a hugely frustrating team to follow. On paper their side is trophy material with the likes of Wales stars Gethin Jenkins, Martyn Williams, Gareth Thomas and Tom Shanklin aswell as kiwis Ben Blair, Xavier Rush and Paul Tito but the Blues always seem to bottle it when it comes to the crunch. They did so in losing to Llanelli at the tail end of last season and didn't turn up for their Anglo-Welsh semi until too late. For me their weakness is a lack of control and temperament in the side under pressure. I am really not convinced by Nicky Robinson as a fly half and Mike Phillips moving to Ospreys is a big blow. The arrival of Gareth Thomas should help with this, but his recent displays for Wales have not been all that impressive and he seems to be past his best. They often struggle to finish their chances so losing Chris Czekaj to injury will not help that. Cardiff had a good season last year, but I don't expect Dai Young to be able to recreate that this time around especially as they have a favourable HEC draw which could lead to them prioritising Europe over the league. OK time for my 2p on Cardiff. I haven't had the chance to watch them pre-season (as the Gloucester match was delayed 2 and a half hours on Saturday!:eek) but they've won 3 out of 3 and things are shaping up nicely for the first game against the Ospreys on Friday. It's worth analysing the season in two parts given the impact the WC can have; for the first part of the season we play 6 games whilst the World Cup is on, only two away trips in this time to the Dragons and Munster, the latter affected by Ireland callups so definitely two winnable games. Home games are against Connacht and Glasgow which should be straightforward, and we also play Leinster and the Ospreys, both of whom I would much rather play without internationals. Given our international callups and injuries to Scott Morgan and Chris Czekaj (who could be out for up to 2 years poor bloke) we can put out the following team for the early part of the season: 15. Blair 14. R Williams 13. Selley 12. Stcherbina 11. James 10. N Robinson 9. Spice 1. Yapp 2. Goodfield 3. G Powell 4. Sidoli 5. Tito 6. Molitika 7. Sowden-Taylor 8. Rush © Bench: R Gill/S Roberts, G Williams, B Davies/D Jones, M Lewis/R Shellard, Rees, McLeod, Riley/Hewitt I believe the above is as a strong a team as there will be during the WC period and would expect us to pick up 18-20 points during this time. My main concern is cover at prop as Yapp has not played much rugby in the last few years and Gary Powell is ... Gary Powell but we do at least have a few good youngsters in Gill and Roberts to come in. When the WC finishes we will have Martyn Williams, Rhys Thomas, Gethin Jenkins, Tom Shanklin, Jamie Robinson, Gareth Thomas and Filise (our first choice tighthead) back in the squad, which added to the above provides one of the best squads we have had in recent times, even if it is probably a bit short of landing any silverware IMO. There are too many tough away games (Leinster, Scarlets, Ospreys and Ulster), the likes of which we have given up in too easily in recent years (as 2hcb has alluded to). I expect an improvement in this area, but I'm not convinced that Dai Young is the man to lead us to such triumphs. At home I'm confident we can turn over anyone, we are unbeaten at home in the ML since Jan 2006. Regarding the Mike Phillips issue, there has been no bigger fan of his than myself for Cardiff during the last two seasons, however I have a sneaking suspicion that his departure might help us. He has been so instrumental in scoring tries himself and setting up others that his individual performance often decided whether we as a team would win or not. Consequently his bad games had a damaging effect on the team as it often involved him taking on too much and wasting possession. The introduction of new blood at scrum half will hopefully allow a much better team game, including greater emphasis on our backline which has stagnated somewhat in the last few seasons. Looking at the season more broadly and the other competitions, I don't think these will have a detrimental effect on our Magners League campaign. I expect us to challenge for a QF in the Heineken Cup but our Anglo Welsh group is tough, so if there was ever going to be resting of key players (which I doubt), the Anglo Welsh would be the first to suffer. I would expect us to finish in the Top 4 this season, building on 2nd and 4th places in the last two years. I don't think 6/1 is a generous enough price on us winning, and the each way terms are fairly stingy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 28, 2007 Author Share Posted August 28, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 thanks for that Cymro, nice work :clap As you say, you guys had what looks like a very good pre season win 40-10 over Gloucester on Saturday and your WC side does indeed look strong. In other pre-season news: Ospreys beat Bristol 27-15 with a side missing Henson and Marshall. Llanelli lost 17-21 to Bath Dragons struggled past Nat1 side Bedford 10-6 Munster overcame USA by the same score and finally, Edinburgh were beaten 14-26 by Tonga Friday night sees Cardiff v Ospreys then Saturday is Llanelli v Gwent. I'll be back when the teams and prices are announced! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Team have been named for Friday's game as follows: Blues: Ben Blair; Rhys Williams, Tal Selley, Dafydd Hewitt, Jamie Roberts; Nick Robinson, Jason Spice; John Yapp, Gareth Williams, Gary Powell, Deiniol Jones, Paul Tito, Maama Molitika, Robin Sowden-Taylor, Xavier Rush (capt). Replacements: Scott Roberts, Ross Johnson, Robert Sidoli, Mark Lewis, Richie Rees, Nick Macleod, Marc Stcherbina. Ospreys: Lee Byrne; Stefan Terblanche, Mark Taylor, Andrew Bishop, Aled Brew; Shaun Connor, Justin Marshall; Paul James, Richard Hibbard, Andrew Millward, Brent Cockbain (capt), Mike Collins, Andy Lloyd, Richard Pugh, Filo Tiatia. Replacements: Barry Williams, Cai Griffiths, Mike Powell/Tom Smith, Ben Lewis, Martin Roberts, Jonathan Spratt, Jonathan Vaughton. Blues team looks OK but really surprised to see Jamie Roberts on the wing and Stcherbina on the bench. Roberts is a great young talent but one thing he lacks is speed, fortunately only Vaughton for the Ospreys has real pace and he is on the bench. Stcherbina must be carrying a knock as he is probably our most reliable centre, a loss against Andrew Bishop who I consider to be one of the most underrated players in Wales. Front row doesn't look the most threatening at the scrummage but thankfully the Ospreys are under strength in this area too. Not too disappointed to see Sidoli on the bench, Jones is an able replacement. Gareth Williams is a notoriously bad lineout thrower though so could be interesting up against Cockbain. Perhaps 2hcb could take us through the Ospreys team? From my perspective the backline looks very respectable and the forwards less so (exceptions being Cockbain and Pugh), think our back row could have a big advantage. Also, who is Mike Collins? Is he a premiership player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 My thoughts on the Ospreys selection are that I'm not overly impressed. The backline as you say is a very experienced, solid, unit. If we can get parity upfront they should be stronger than Cardiff there. The front row is ok, Hibbard is a useful carrier, Cockbain should secure lineout posession and Filo Tiatia is a man mountain. The blues do look strong with Tito, RST and Rush but I wouldn't expect us to be overun there. The game could well hinge on who gets the better of what is bound to be a spicy (sorry) battle at scrumhalf. Still no prices as of yet though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Best prices for the Cardiff game currently are: Cardiff 8/13 (Boyles) Ospreys 13/8 (VC/Extrabet) Draw 22/1 (Extrabet) Handicaps range from 3pts (Boyles) to 5pts (Most places). Despite our good home record I feel there maybe a bit of value on the O's to win this one if their pack can deliver enough set piece ball and take advantage of our understrength midfield. Our main threats are in the back 3 and could be starved of chances. I was expecting them to be about 5/4 or thereabouts. The Ospreys do not have a good record in Cardiff however with only one win in 4 visits (2004/05), often performing below par, and this may be a factor in the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Still waiting for all the prices to be put up, but I'm tempted by +6 available at Stan James. For me it's a tight game to call, on paper Cardiff has the stronger pack, Ospreys the stronger backs. Cardiff has home advantage but are not consistant performers. Cardiff would be very happy just to edge a tight one so I think +6 maybe enough. We'll see. Might take Ospreys and cover it with Cardiff 6-10??? Any sign of DAC and his Irish mates? It'd be good to get an Irish perspective before considering any outrights... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 31, 2007 Author Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Well this could be scuppered if they don't take the competition seriously but a side with the quality Munster have should not be 12/1 to win this league, especially given the chances of Ospreys enjoying a long run in both cups. I'm prepared to give the likes of O'Gara, O'Connell, Leamy and of course the passionate fans my backing. Skybet have put up 12/1 with 1/4 for a top 3 finish, that's good enough for me. Munster (e/w) @ 12/1 (Skybet) And on today's game, I see essentially a very even contest, so maybe I'm a little biased but I'm going to just go with the side with the start. Hopefully Cardiff will bottle another crunch game here and get us of to a winning start but otherwise it should be tight so 6pts is fair possibly alongside a 6-10 cover. Ospreys +6 @ 10/11 (Stan James) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Two good bets 2hcb :ok. Munster @ 13.00 is excellent value. This is over 75% above what I think their price should be (i.e. 7.40) based on their current ML ELO rating. As you state, they may not take the ML seriously but I'm also prepared to take that risk at these odds. I will also back e/w (just in case :unsure). Therefore, the long term bet for me is 5 points e/w on Munster @ 13.00 with Skybet. Lets hope we both collect next May :hope. Can't fault your other selection as I forecast the Blues to win by around 2 points. Not having a bet however as am trying to stick to a system whereby I back outright only when value is available. Best of luck for the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2hcb Posted August 31, 2007 Author Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Cardiff 18-16 Ospreys Yuck, what a horrible game. My reading of the game was essentially correct with Cardiff dominating posession (64%) and territory (59%) but having very little cohesion when presented with that ball. Connor kept Ospreys in with a sniff and had a great chance to steal it at the end but truth be told it qould have been a grossly unfair result had we won. Congratulation Cymro on getting off to a win, but plenty to work on for both teams. Had Ospreys won more than 7/15 lineouts we'd have probably won the game. Nonetheless a winning start bettingwise for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted September 1, 2007 Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Good start for the Blues in a tough encounter with the Ospreys. Looking for a lot more consistency from them from the off this season. As predicted by the guys here it was a tough game and from what I read and hear the Blues could of and should of made it more comfortable, god I miss the Rugby over here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cymro Posted September 1, 2007 Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Can't fault your other selection as I forecast the Blues to win by around 2 points. Looking forward to some more predictions like these Wumpking! Especially if they involve us winning! If we get too many refereeing performances like last night's however that could throw any system out. Agree with your comments 2hcb very magnanimous, I would have been fuming if we'd lost. Tito looks like an awesome signing, Hewitt was v impressive taking the ball up and Nicky Robinson back to something like his best (I think he thrives on the goalkicking responsibility). Byrne was very good for Ospreys pity we don't see that for Wales as he's got a lot of talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted September 1, 2007 Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Thanks Cymro, lets hope the accuracy of the ML ELO ratings continues :hope. For today's game between the Scarlets v Dragons, based solely on the ML ELO ratings the prices would be around: Scarlets 1.23 Dragons 5.25 Draw 48.00 Which would indicate a Scarlets win by 11 points. Current best bookie prices are: Scarlets 1.37 Dragons 3.25 Draw 23.00 Whilst the handicaps on the Scarlets range from -7 to -9. Head to heads results between the two over the last 3 seasons are: Date Home Team Score Away Team Score 17/09/2004 Dragons 15 Scarlets 0 01/01/2005 Scarlets 35 Dragons 26 23/12/2005 Dragons 16 Scarlets 28 22/04/2006 Scarlets 36 Dragons 17 12/09/2006 Dragons 22 Scarlets 23 23/03/2007 Scarlets 35 Dragons 11 Today's teams are: Scarlets: 15 Morgan Stoddart, 14 Garan Evans, 13 Regan King, 12 Gavin Evans, 11 Matthew Watkins, 10 Ceiron Thomas, 9 Gavin Cattle, 8 Nathan Thomas, 7 James Bater ©, 6 Dafydd Jones, 5 Dominic Day, 4 Adam Eustace, 3 Deacon Manu, 2 James Hayter, 1 Phil John. Replacements: 16 Iestyn Thomas, 17 Ken Owens, 18 Vernon Cooper, 19 Jon Edwards, 20 Liam Davies, 21 Rhys Priestland, 22 Jonathan Davies. Dragons: 15 Martyn Thomas, 14 Gareth Wyatt, 13 Phil Dollman, 12 Ashley Smith, 11 Richard Mustoe, 10 Aled Thomas, 9 Andy Williams, 8 Nic Fitisemanu, 7 Richard Parks, 6 Jamie Ringer, 5 Adam Jones, 4 Luke Charteris ©, 3 Rhys Thomas, 2 Steve Jones, 1 Adam Black. Replacements: 16 Ben Daly, 17 Hugh Gustafson, 18 Peter Sidoli, 19 Dan Lydiate, 20 Gareth Maule, 21 Gareth McCarthy, 22 Wayne Evans. Conclusion The Scarlets have never lost to the Dragons at home, whilst the Dragons have only ever won 1 game away to a Welsh region. Over the past 3 seasons the Scarlets have won by 11, 19 and 24 points respectively. The ML ELO forecasts that they'll win by 11 points today. The Scarlet's team looks a strong side on paper. Therefore, the bet for me is Scarlets -7 @ 1.90 with Bet 365. I'm also going to check the spread prices out a bit later to see if any value to be had there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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