Matthew Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats DateHomeAwayPredictionOddsBookieStakeCorrectReturn11/08/2007EvertonWiganD3.7Betfair£42:hope011/08/2007SunderlandTottenhamD3.55Betfair£42:hope0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats good luck plop. this looks really exciting! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats quick question mate - do you have it fully automated now ie. you just fill in the date, teams, score, shots etc and it churns out a 1x2 %? do you do this in excel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Glad to see you back for another season Plop. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaRoz Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Good Luck Looking forward to seeing plenty of these:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Thanks all. It's all about the :nana:nana:nana!!!!! Muppet77, "quick question mate - do you have it fully automated now ie. you just fill in the date, teams, score, shots etc and it churns out a 1x2 %? do you do this in excel?" It's fully automated in the sense that I update scores and shots etc (via a download of the latest EPL file from football-data), then its just a few macros and it spits out a file which I run through KXEN. KXEN then spits out a file that has the %age chances. Depending on those, I either do or do not bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EulogioJ Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Hi Ploplop, It seems very interesting. Will you be posting here the selections for each weekend? If you do so, I will be following your selections, Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Selections will be posted every weekend, yes. Although I say that, I am at a wedding next weekend so might not get the sunday bets up. I need the preceding days matches to be completed before I can do the next days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats hope to be able to follow this a bit more closely this season as it showed good results last term. best of luck mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats hope to be able to follow this a bit more closely this season as it showed good results last term. best of luck mate! Thanks........ It might be worth reminding readers where I ended up last season. From last years thread: Season Stats ALL HW D AW No of Bets:2011522417Staked:£201£152£24£17Returned:£234.98£171.06£39.55£18.62P+L:£33.98£19.06£15.55£1.62Strike Rate:57.2%56.6%45.8%50%Yield:16.9%12.5%64.8%9.5%Avg Back Odds:2.312.23.551.76Avg Lay Odds:3.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Best wishes plopplop for the forthcoming season, I'll certainly look forward to reviewing your progress with great interest. I'm curious to know what you eventually determined your minimum cutoff % diferrence to be which makes a selection a bet. Also, have you considered using a Kelly staking strategy as opposed to a fixed % of your bank? I've found Kelly's approach to be the most profitable in terms of effective staking, i.e. where the size of the % of the bank that is bet exactly measures the % size of the considered advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 5, 2007 Author Share Posted August 5, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Wumpking, In order to determine the cutoffs I set up an excel spreadsheet that tests every possible cutoff combination, recording the total / home / draw / away ...................no of bets / strike rate / profit / yield / avg odds etc. It's a simple case of finding the cutoffs that provided the best profit / yield and no of bets combination. Once found, I'll use them going fwd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanDB Posted August 5, 2007 Share Posted August 5, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Nice to see you back for the upcoming season plopplop. Just a quick question (which may have been asked before :unsure). Do you think the very start and end of the season may be a bit more unreliable? That's what I'd expect, but what do I know :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 5, 2007 Author Share Posted August 5, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted August 6, 2007 Share Posted August 6, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats hope to be able to follow this a bit more closely this season as it showed good results last term. best of luck mate! I echo the above plop. This was an excellent thread last season. Best of luck again. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 11, 2007 Author Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Had a couple more people join me so we're up to £46 stake........... Come on the Draw!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubzero Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Good luck~plopplop When your picks start? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robsterling Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Unlucky with the Spurs game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 12, 2007 Author Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Unlucky with the Spurs game Tell me about it..:puke Not an amazing start................ DateHomeAwayPredictionOddsBookieStakeCorrectReturn39305EvertonWiganD3.7Betfair£46N039305SunderlandTottenhamD3.55Betfair£46N0 ALLHWDAWNo of Bets:2020 Staked:£92£0£92£0Returned:£0£0£0£0P+L:£-92£0£-92£0Strike Rate:0%0%0%0%Yield:-100%0%-100%0% Avg Back Odds:3.6303.630Avg Win Odds:0000 Each Person:£46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Very impressive results from last season, and very close to being off to a great start - really unlucky with the Spurs game :( Will be following this with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats we go again DateHomeAwayPredictionOddsBookieStakeCorrectReturn14/08/2007TottenhamEvertonD 3.5Betfair£42.320 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stodin Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Selections will be posted every weekend, yes. Although I say that, I am at a wedding next weekend so might not get the sunday bets up. I need the preceding days matches to be completed before I can do the next days. its not Richard's wedding by any chance is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats No not Richard's - it was a fellow PLer however, LaRoz (Simon). Very nice day it was too...... Plenty of :beer:cheers :beer:cheers :beer:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Unlucky plopplop. I watched your system with great interest last year and this year i've decided to follow. Fingers crossed for tomorrow if there are going to be any plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Unlucky plopplop. I watched your system with great interest last year and this year i've decided to follow. Fingers crossed for tomorrow if there are going to be any plays. Tell me about it.............Tottenham aint half w@nk!!!!! :ok DateHomeAwayPredictionOddsBookieStakeCorrectReturn39308TottenhamEvertonD3.5Betfair£42.32N0 System Stats: ALL HW D AW No of Bets:3030 Staked:£134.32£0£134.32£0Returned:£0£0£0£0P+L:£-134.32£0£-134.32£0Strike Rate:0%0%0%0%Yield:-100%0%-100%0% Avg Back Odds:3.5802.690Avg Win Odds:0000 Each Person:£44.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Tomorrow I have: DateHomeAwayPredictionOddsBookieStakeCorrectReturn15/08/1007FulhamBoltonAW 3.60Betfair£40.63:hope:hope15/08/1007PortsmouthMan UtdAW 1.67Betfair£40.63:hope:hope15/08/1007ReadingChelseaD 4.00Betfair£40.63:hope:hope15/08/1007WiganMiddlesbroughAW 3.25Betfair£40.63:hope:hope Lets hope for a change of luck!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubzero Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats stake size is relatively high. Today's stake size is almost 15% of bank, isn't it? and but yet, I'm following you just the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fen4e Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats Man, these are a lot of money !!! 40 $ at single match.. you have to value the money ;-P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Predicting The English Premier League-using stats stake size is relatively high. Today's stake size is almost 15% of bank' date=' isn't it? and but yet, I'm following you just the same.[/quote'] Stake size is actually 4% of current bank - so with 4 predicitions it is actually (£162.51 / £1,015.68) 16%. 4% is possibly aggressive and there is a situation i suppose where on a given EPL matchday I could have 40% of my bank out there. After a good season last year - I'm looking to make it pay this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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