Kanga Posted November 24, 2007 Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Aelara, I think Ginge is saying that by dropping "poor" performing systems - the total profit recorded will show a false profit as the "poor" results will be removed along with it. BUT from what I can see system 5 and system 7 were in profit when you dropped them and I believe you don't change the system total even if a system is dropped - as it's a rolling total. Keep up the good work :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Aelara, I think Ginge is saying that by dropping "poor" performing systems - the total profit recorded will show a false profit as the "poor" results will be removed along with it. BUT from what I can see system 5 and system 7 were in profit when you dropped them and I believe you don't change the system total even if a system is dropped - as it's a rolling total. Keep up the good work :clap Yes, I see what you mean about Gingers comments. But I still don't see the problem, as anyone who has followed this thread will know that I post the particular systems results, pointage, ROI, etc both on their own and in a final table of all systems. So while system 7, for example, is running, its results will be included in the final tables, if its not performing and I take it out, its results are still included in subsequent results tables. You only have to go back a couple of threads to see a full results table. The only reason I put a system 6 final tally the other day and not a full system tally was to save me a bit of time. I have nothing to hide from anyone. Some systems have been great and some shite but the results are all there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Selections System 6 12:05 Lingfield EVER CHEERFUL (9/4) 13:10 Lingfield GRAND PALACE (2/1) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Results (Red=unplaced, Green=placed, Blue=win) System 6 12:05 Lingfield EVER CHEERFUL 3rd@5/2 :\ 13:10 Lingfield GRAND PALACE 1st@2/1 :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 24, 2007 Author Share Posted November 24, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Take keep everyone happy, I'll go back to posting the full table. As of Saturday 24 November 2007 System 5 Today: Suspended Total: 108 Bets= 25 Win/ 26 Placed/57 Unp Total Profit: +14.76pts SR: +23.15% ROI: +13.67% System 6 Today: 2 Bets= +1.00pt Total: 119 Bets= 32 Wins/ 29 Placed/ 58 Unp Total Profit: +33.38pts SR: +26.89% ROI: +28.05% System 7 Today: Retired Total: 104 Bets= 33 Win/ 26 Placed/ 45 Unp Total Profit: +1.91pts SR: +31.73% ROI: +1.84% TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (SYS 5, 6 & 7): +1.00pt OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 5, 6 & 7) Total: 331 Bets= 90 Wins/ 171 Placed (incl. winners)/ 160 Unp Total Profit: +50.05pts SR: +27.19% (Place SR: +51.66%) ROI: +15.12% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 25, 2007 Author Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? No selections today :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted November 25, 2007 Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Think I had better make things clear. Kanga has it about right. My one and only problem is this: I am not saying you have lied what so ever Aelara. You have been totally honest the whole way through. It is just the profit and loss figures (although truthful on their own) give a somewhat false view of the over all picture. By being able to drop under performing "systems" half way through. Anyone backing all selections of all the systems would in fact have shown a loss. When you dropped those poor performing systems you drop their losses but have kept the good performing systems profit from that same period. Anyone who backed the selections from the start would not know which system was going to show a profit. Therefore in my opinion the good performing profit from that same early period should have been dropped. And if that were the case even system 6 and 7 would now show a loss. (if only the time between when the other systems were dropped and now were allowed). It is really a statement about systems in general than this individual one. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted November 25, 2007 Share Posted November 25, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? I have a couple of threads where I am / was giving tips based on value and form study, not a system. (This example is just an example, it does not matter what the 7 parts are, they could be based on anything). But say I called it a system and hypathetically. If I then split the season in to 7 categories / systems. Half way through the season I find 5f-6f races, 1m1f-1m2f, 1m3f-1m4f, 1m7f-2m and 2m1f+ races all show a loss or not much of a profit anyway. So jetison these. But keep the 7f-1m and 1m5f-1m6f races because they are doing well. The profit from these two are kept but the losses from the others are dropped from my profit / loss table. At the end of the season those 2 "systems" only show a profit because of the time up until the others were thrown away / kept for another day. It would have been fairer to start the system again from jetison time. Each year I do my threads I would be a very poor gambler if none of my 7 categories make a profit. Being able to choose which to keep and which to throw half way through. If I did this I think someone would say something. May be I am wrong but it seems to me this system / systems have done something similar, probably without realising. I am not saying Aelara has deliberately gone out to mislead but the profit loss table does not give the whole picture. Rules of systems allow for this but should they? Sorry if this is uncomfortable reading. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 26, 2007 Author Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Again I re-iterate: All the results are clearly shown, both on an individual basis and an altogether basis. When I started posting these systems (back in August?), I actually started with systems 1-4 but systems 5-6 were added a couple of weeks later. Systems 1-4 were dropped mainly because they were just not performing but if I remember rightly, I don't think any of them were showing a loss. Anyhow, there weren't that many selections for those systems but they are all listed on this thread, so it would just be a case of going back and checking. Anyway, systems 1-4 didn't run very long at all. If you look at the results in the previous couple of posts you will see, for example, system 7, which says retired, its results up to when it was retired and its results calculated in the final table. Your post doesn't make uncomfortable reading, on the contrary I'm glad someone's showing some interest, but it does make confusing reading and I'm really sorry but I still don't see your point? Tony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 26, 2007 Author Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? No selections today :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tezmac Posted November 26, 2007 Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Hello aelara,i think i understand gings point,you have not kept the results of system1-4 in the total profits you are including only system 5-7.You posted them on the thread therefore they should be included,hope this makes it clear if that is where gings is coming from. Cheers Terry ps well done by the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 26, 2007 Author Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Update System 1 Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt Total: 17 Bet= 3 Win/ 5 Placed/ 9 Unp Total Profit: -6.38pts SR: +17.65% ROI: -37.53% System 2 Today: No selection Total: 19 Bets= 7 Wins/2 Placed/ 10 Unp Total Profit: -0.04pts SR: +36.84% ROI: -0.21% System 3 Today: 1 Bet= +0.50pts Total: 38 Bets= 16 Win/ 11 Placed/ 11 Unp Total Profit: +0.82pts SR: +42.11% ROI: +2.16% System 4 Today: No selection Total: 6 Bet= 2 Win/ 3 Placed/ 1 Unplaced Total Profit: -2.73pts SR: +33.33% ROI: -45.50% System 5 Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt Total: 67 Bets= 17 Win/ 14 Placed/36 Unp Total Profit: +23.25pts SR: +25.37% ROI: +34.70% System 6 Today: 2 Bet= -2.00pts Total: 56 Bets= 20 Wins/ 9 Placed/ 27 Unp Total Profit: +39.55pts SR: +35.71% ROI: +70.63% TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (SYS 1-6): -3.50pts OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-6) Total: 203 Bets= 65 Wins/ 109 Placed (incl. winners)/ 94 Unp Total Profit: +54.47pts SR: +32.02% (Place SR: +53.69%) ROI: +26.83% OK. To keep everybody happy, this was the last table that included systems 1-4 (I think its on post number 358). I will amend the current table, which is a couple of posts down for those who want to check, with the final results from sys 1-4 that are shown above. I actually didn't think that the results were quite as bad but still only 8-9 points down for all four systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 26, 2007 Author Share Posted November 26, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? New overall total for all systems (1-7) since the beginning: OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-7) Total: 411 Bets= 118 Wins/ 220 Placed (incl. winners)/ 191 Unp Total Profit: +41.72pts SR: +28.71% (Place SR: +53.53%) ROI: +10.15% I will be keeping this revised total in all future results. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 27, 2007 Author Share Posted November 27, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Now there's a first- I forgot to post up today :spank Anyway, there were no selections (anyone may check my blog to verify I'm not fibbing as I posted there this morning). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 28, 2007 Author Share Posted November 28, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? No selections today :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 29, 2007 Author Share Posted November 29, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? No selections today :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Selection System 6 13:10 Lingfield TONY THE TAP (3/1) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sousa Posted November 30, 2007 Share Posted November 30, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Good luck today with Tony, Tony. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Good luck today with Tony' date=' Tony. :ok[/quote'] :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Results (Red=unplaced, Green=placed, Blue=win) System 6 13:10 Lingfield TONY THE TAP Unp@5/1 :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted November 30, 2007 Author Share Posted November 30, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? As of Friday 30 November 2007 System 5 Today: Suspended Total: 108 Bets= 25 Win/ 26 Placed/57 Unp Total Profit: +14.76pts SR: +23.15% ROI: +13.67% System 6 Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt Total: 120 Bets= 32 Wins/ 29 Placed/ 59 Unp Total Profit: +32.38pts SR: +26.67% ROI: +26.98% System 7 Today: Retired Total: 104 Bets= 33 Win/ 26 Placed/ 45 Unp Total Profit: +1.91pts SR: +31.73% ROI: +1.84% TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (Systems 1-7)): -1.00pt OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-7) Total: 412 Bets= 118 Wins/ 220 Placed (incl. winners)/ 192 Unp Total Profit: +40.72pts SR: +28.64% (Place SR: +53.40%) ROI: +9.88% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Selections System 6 19:00 Wolves BRAZILIAN BRUSH (7/4) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Results (Red=unplaced, Green=placed, Blue=win) System 6 19:00 Wolves BRAZILIAN BRUSH Unp(4th)@5/4 :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 1, 2007 Author Share Posted December 1, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? As of Saturday 1 December 2007 System 5 Today: Suspended Total: 108 Bets= 25 Win/ 26 Placed/57 Unp Total Profit: +14.76pts SR: +23.15% ROI: +13.67% System 6 Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt Total: 121 Bets= 32 Wins/ 29 Placed/ 60 Unp Total Profit: +31.38pts SR: +26.45% ROI: +25.93% System 7 Today: Retired Total: 104 Bets= 33 Win/ 26 Placed/ 45 Unp Total Profit: +1.91pts SR: +31.73% ROI: +1.84% TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (Systems 1-7): -1.00pt OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-7) Total: 413 Bets= 118 Wins/ 220 Placed (incl. winners)/ 193 Unp Total Profit: +39.72pts SR: +28.57% (Place SR: +53.27%) ROI: +9.62% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 2, 2007 Author Share Posted December 2, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? No selections today :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 3, 2007 Author Share Posted December 3, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? No selections today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 4, 2007 Author Share Posted December 4, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Selections System 6 12:50 Lingfield STORMBURST (4/1) 13:20 Lingfield MUSICAL SCRIPT (6/1) 13:30 Wolves GOLDEN SURPRICE (2/1) 14:00 Wolves RIO ROCKET (10/1) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 4, 2007 Author Share Posted December 4, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Results (Red=unplaced, Green=placed, Blue=win) System 6 12:50 Lingfield STORMBURST 2nd@10/3 :\ 13:20 Lingfield MUSICAL SCRIPT 2nd@8/1 :\ 13:30 Wolves GOLDEN SURPRICE Unp@6/5 :eyes 14:00 Wolves RIO ROCKET Unp@9/2 :eyes Doh....:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 4, 2007 Author Share Posted December 4, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? As of Tuesday 4 December 2007 System 5 Today: Suspended Total: 108 Bets= 25 Win/ 26 Placed/57 Unp Total Profit: +14.76pts SR: +23.15% ROI: +13.67% System 6 Today: 4 Bets= -4.00pts Total: 125 Bets= 32 Wins/ 31 Placed/ 62 Unp Total Profit: +27.38pts SR: +25.60% ROI: +21.90% System 7 Today: Retired Total: 104 Bets= 33 Win/ 26 Placed/ 45 Unp Total Profit: +1.91pts SR: +31.73% ROI: +1.84% TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (Systems 1-7): -4.00pts OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-7) Total: 417 Bets= 118 Wins/ 222 Placed (incl. winners)/ 195 Unp Total Profit: +35.72pts SR: +28.30% (Place SR: +53.24%) ROI: +8.57% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aelara Posted December 5, 2007 Author Share Posted December 5, 2007 Re: Aelara's downfall?? Today's Selections System 6 19:20 Kempton HER NAME IS RIO (11/4) 20:50 Kempton BRANDYWELL BOY (11/4) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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