AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

Pos	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Against	%	Points
1	Geelong	14	11	0	3	1578	1026	153	44
2	West Coast	14	9	0	5	1259	1077	116	36
3	Hawthorn	14	9	0	5	1283	1134	113	36
4	Collingwood	14	9	0	5	1296	1218	106	36
5	Kangaroos	14	9	0	5	1316	1301	101	36
6	Adelaide	14	8	0	6	1165	1011	115	32
7	Western Bulldogs	14	8	0	6	1441	1446	99	32
8	Essendon	14	8	0	6	1409	1418	99	32
9	Port Adelaide	14	8	0	6	1352	1368	98	32
10	Sydney	14	7	0	7	1157	1052	109	28
11	Fremantle	14	6	0	8	1389	1373	101	24
12	St. Kilda	14	6	0	8	1110	1221	90	24
13	Brisbane	14	5	1	8	1154	1252	92	22
14	Carlton	14	4	0	10	1436	1821	78	16
15	Melbourne	14	3	0	11	1185	1471	80	12
16	Richmond	14	1	1	12	1228	1569	78	6

[BURNTUA CRISP]

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Ash...ever heard of a PM, mate? ;) (And not Bruce MacAvaney for... either!) Some 'funny' numbers from this weeks games... I'm not sure Melbourne exactly won in style, Crisp...27 clearances to 43; 50 I50's to 59; 29 shots to 31... Typical Carlton defensive "effort"...plus they butchered more than their share of chances. Problem being, it's messed up the odds a bit for next week. Want Sydney -26ish...not sure I'll quite be that low now...oh how we all wanted Carlton to win yesterday! :@ (btw, what's this popular notion amongst experts that Sydney don't like playing on the smaller SCG??...only won 8 of their last 10, covering the spread every time, winning by a bit over 5 goals! Probably one of Shwarta's little gems ;) West Coast defense?! Forget all the talk about their lack of scoring, I think that's been their for all to see all year...but their once super strong D in their last 2 home games have allowed a shot every 1.88 and 1.69 entries!! (Previous low was 2.05 back in rd. 2!)..both to teams that don't exactly wear out the scoreboard guy! Is lack of bodies finally catching up with the Saints. Had more I50's, but allowed a shot every 1.59 entries. Bad news to a team without a key forward. Collingwood have now had 3 weeks in a row over (defense) 2.60! Still...that only puts them 4th in the last 5, with Geelong way out in front. Low scorer at the 'G coming up ;) Hawthorn have now had less than 25 shots in 7 of their last 8 (the one being v. Carlton) Bad signs? Will be very tempted by Richond this week...hopefully @ +23 or better...but again, a bit unlikely I fear. How are the Crows travelling, Bjv? Pretty bloody well. Holding teams to just over 60 ppg in last 5 (second best)...and somewhat contrary to what we all seem to think, they've had 24+ shots in 8 of 14 this season, 6 of their last 8. Think they are building very nicely indeed. Next week looks a bit bare on the betting front to me... Like I said, Sydney and Tiges, depending on lines available...a Geelong/Collingwood under and a 'surprising' Friday night over looks on the cards. Everything points to a Bulldog win, but

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Just for the record...I went thru the ladder and this is what I came up with...

1	Geelong	22	18	3	1	2399	1805	74	132.9
4	Collingwood	22	15	6	1	2111	2003	62	105.3
6	Adelaide	22	14	6	2	1983	1793	60	110.5
2	West Coast	22	13	6	3	2068	1868	58	110.7
3	Hawthorn	22	14	7	1	2092	1925	58	108.6
10	Sydney	22	14	8	0	1975	1834	56	107.6
7	W Bulldogs	22	11	8	3	2244	2243	50	100.0
5	Kangaroos	22	11	9	2	2110	2107	48	100.1
9	Port Adel	22	11	11	0	2146	2174	44	98.7
12	St Kilda	22	9	11	2	1910	2021	40	94.5
8	Essendon	22	9	12	1	2194	2233	38	98.2
11	Fremantle	22	9	13	0	2183	2179	36	100.1
13	Bris Lions	22	7	13	2	1945	2061	32	94.3
15	Melbourne	22	4	18	0	1967	2289	16	85.9
16	Richmond	22	3	17	2	2019	2378	16	84.9
14	Carlton	22	4	18	0	2212	2645	16	83.6

(Didn't bother with margins, just win/loss...)

There's also a few 'draws' in there that I think are tough to predict...

Dogs/WC @ TD. Dogs/St. K @ TD. Brisbane/Roos @ 'Gabba (although Kangas still haven't lost to a team outside the 8, right Bjv :ok ) Kangas/WC @ TD. Geelong/Crows @ Geelong (neither here nor there really) St. K./WC @ TD Dogs v. Hawthorn @ TD Coll v. Crows @ TD. (Again, means not much anyway...)

So....Dogs only have to win 1 of the 3 iffies to make it (WC, St. K., Hawks)...provided they win this week of course. I've got the Roos making it regardless (with 12 wins), with Port and Ess definately out, and the Saints the only rough chance if they win both games v. Doggies and WC.

Interesting that we both have Collingwood in 2nd, and the same top 4. :clap

Now, to go check for some decents odds...on something! :unsure

Oh, I see a real chance that Richmond don't finish on the bottom tho...Seen Carlton as high as 12.00, Melbourne 8.00...

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Oh I like you both having Collingwood in 2nd spot (gushing Bruce McAvaney voice)

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

I'm not sure Melbourne exactly won in style, Crisp...27 clearances to 43; 50 I50's to 59; 29 shots to 31... Typical Carlton defensive "effort"...plus they butchered more than their share of chances.

Any team that gets challenged, look as though they're gone, fight back and win running away, wins in style in my opinion, regardless of the opposition.

Oh' date=' BC...interesting you say that St. Kilda's finals hopes have been 'buried', yet you have them finishing outside the 8 by the barest of %!![/quote'] The Saints have no room to move. They need to win 6 of their last 8 to make it interesting and make up 10%. Their dicey games are against the Bulldogs and West Coast and must win both. I'm sure the Bombers will have a big enough break over the Saints to overcome when round 22 starts. The Crows are the wildcard in the lead-up to the finals. They are good, but they are inconsistent. They'll need to thump the Saints and string some wins together before I'm convinced. The Eagles have their problems and need two home finals to even make the Grand Final. Their next four weeks should tell the story, if they can't win a few, the Crows, Magpies, Kangas and Hawks could steal the march on them. The question marks on Collingwood and Hawthorn are the same. Will the young bodies hold up all season? Both have alot of experience to come back, but I'm not sure they will improve much as a result. The Pies will win at least 5 of the last 8 games and play the bottom 4 teams between rounds 17-20. The Hawks have a tough finish to the season and need to start racking up the victories now. They have been off the boil for the last month and might be having their bad patch now. Key games with finals ramifications - St.Kilda v Adelaide (TD),Bulldogs v Essendon (TD), Port v West Coast (AAMI), Geelong v Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle v Kangaroos (Subiaco).

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

... McAvaney ...

I think you've got it bjv? I've had the brain in knots over the correct spelling. In a low quality game (Carl V Melb) it certainly came down to some butcherisation. Yeah, the West Coast defence did lack some balls for a while. :) Will Adelaide pull out the overload training this year? They don't have the games up the sleeve this time. Don't worry, I'll PM all, but I havn't had that degree of IO yet this year. We were chating today though about Laidley's stuborn insistance in reverting to a tempo style at various points of game. Notice yesterday that Kangas looked headed for a ten goal win on couple seperate occasions then Richmond fought back with runs of goals. It was because Laidley had ordered tempo. It's been happening all season (and possibly cost them the Hawks game, I felt) and it's stupidly why their percentage could cost them a spot. Kangas biggest win has been 26pts. I believe they are actually better than all the sub 26 results makes them look. About time some money goes down based on that stat, I would think.