AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

Bloody hell! A glowing recommendation' date= there Bjv...Maybe I should mention nice things about Collingwood more often! :lol (haha. Thanks mate. We did nail that one pretty well...a few key injuries didn't hurt ;) )

Always going to be a help if you say good things about the black and white :rollin It was more to do with the fact that you and Crisp have provided some brilliant analysis's of the AFL games this year. You both bring completely different views, and attack the games from different angles, and use your thoughts/stats to back your views. You have both been on the ball many times this season and often against popular opinion, but so many times your thoughts have been right. As the season gets longer your predictions should get even better with more exposed form. So more of the same please :ok

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) What has happened to the Big Time Blue Jeffers? :loon A little old lady told me that after 2 thrashings in a row he reckons the Blues are crap, and they only way he could get away from going to watch Carlton play each week with Ads was to stay in England after the recent PL meet. So apparently Jeffers the mad Englishman has stayed in England and missed the plane home. He is going to catch a plane back in early September the little old lady said :rollin Typical Carlton supporter, a couple of bad beats and they jump ship :dude

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

Bloody hell! A glowing recommendation, there Bjv...Maybe I should mention nice things about Collingwood more often! :lol (haha. Thanks mate. We did nail that one pretty well...a few key injuries didn't hurt ;) )

A glowing recomendation from a COLLINGWOOD SUPPORTER. Sorry Taza but according to the 'official world recomendations rating table', that leaves you with a rating of 0. Nice tipping anyway son. Took first Qtr @ 4.00 for Highest Scoring Quarter Saints/Pies. First qtr netted 50pts :nana. Second qtr, with rain easing, they've gone and scored 45pts in half a qtr :wall:wall before the bum FINALY fell out of the big cloud overhead and then they've kicked 5pts to the siren. So hopefully I've still got half dividend in the bag, given current conditions. :\ :D

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Yeah...first quarter netted 50...and that bloody Fraser goal on the siren hurt me bad! :@ A 3 point miss...oh well, no damage done. West Coast v. Brisbane under 173.5 (2.05) 174-193 saver. I think the books have got this one totally wrong!! The over 193.5 is the 2.20 fav, and that just seems a bit backward to me... I have this one pegged at about 174ish... West Coast allow just 41 I50's a game at home...a shot every 2.25 for 18 shots a game!! Given Brisbane av. just 21 both on the road, and in their last 5, I'm not sure how they top 60 here. Their scoring (2.25) has been second worst over the last 5 games, and West Coast have dried up too, scoring every 2.17 entires. The only real drama is if WC go silly, like in the Melbourne game...but still, that one only hit 197. In fact 7 of WC's 13 games have gone under this number, and just 1 (v. Melbourne, 197) has gone over 193. The 2 meetings last year were 166 and 185. Very generous odds for some quite 'normal' numbers I would have thought. (True Ash, but he is a Collingwood supporter who seems at least, to be able to read, write and live a 'normal' life...who also has a total dislike for anything Joffa (despite him now being a Club emplyee! :wall )...so it can't be all bad, right?) :ok

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Just finished watching the delayed telecast of Pies/Saints game, and to be honest, I nearly turned it off halfway through the 3rd quarter due to the terrible umpiring that is spoiling our great game. If Richo was watching this game he would be shaking his head somewhat. It didn't get any better in the last quarter either, the umpires just evened up the ledger and paid Collingwood more free kicks, some of them were shocking too, but we had to take them to be fair ;) Thought the Pies were gone at 3/4 time, they looked tired, then they came out and played a top final quarter to get an unlikely win considering they were down by over 20 points in wet, tough conditions. If anyone can get a look at Dale Thomas's goal from the boundary where he dodged two Saints players and kicked a Daicos like freak goal, you will see a genuine star of the future. Lightly built, but can take a strong grab and has no fear in a contest. Unfortunately he won't get goal of the year because the umpire said it was out of bounds, but cameras show it clearly wasn't. Umpires almost cost us the game, but lucky for the Pies we didn't let them. Win sets Collingwood up nicely as we play Geelong next week which will show exactly where we are at, then we have a fairly easy run home against teams below us on the ladder :dude As for Joffa...He is probably good for the club, but there is no need to show him and the other ferals on tv cos people think all Collingwood supporters are like it :lol

[888]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Guys what do you think about Hawthorn ? I see them as a value bet since they are on hot form at the moment. Any1 else on this bet too ?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Even the Melbourne game they (WestCoast) totally took the foot off at the back half of last qtr. They're a little more focussed on winning flags than being flat track bullies IMO. Are you on the Saints lowest score Taza?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

Guys what do you think about Hawthorn ? I see them as a value bet since they are on hot form at the moment. Any1 else on this bet too ?

I've spent a bit of time contemplating this one. Hawthorn lost the plot once Sydney applied their shut down game style, so this is why I feel they will gear themselves to deal with that tonight - such as keep running/working. They are on a role and no need to pay attention to scoring accuracy theories from last week, which will be factored in by some punters (I have totally different theory on that facit and they were clearly better than Collingwood after the early kitchen sink stuff). Hawks are on a role and Bassett out of Adelaide is important as well as Mattner. Boyle is obviously the major out at Hawthorn. Despite away, the bigger ground will suit Hawthorn's style. All in all, Adelaide will be strong and their form is good. I make them slight favourite and a touch breezy there tonight which won't hurt their prospects either. Hawthorn are not quite a bet for me but forced to I would rather them at the 2.31 (they are starting to drift, I notice - which doesn't necessarily mean anything bad).

[888]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) cheers Ashtee for ur oppinion. I think after some more thought, this game maybe best left alone and to be played in live betting.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Bjv, we saw you you guys were at last week we the Hawks. ;) Won't get within 5 goals of Geelong!...Seriously!!...no-one will from here in! Nope, didn't get on the Saints, Ash...Have never had much "luck" in exotic type betting. Much better off just sticking to the two teams, four possible results scenario. (win/lose/over/under) Just got home form the Devils/Sandringham game, and have some news that Ash (and others) might like. Word from the Melbourne coaching staff is that Bruce is out tomorrow. (My gf and her family are all Melbourne members, so I can't see why an official would lie to them.) Under looking reasonable at HT...how hard is it to watch?! Fitzroy v. Hawthorn! As long as they keep scoring like Fitzroy of about '95 I'll be happy! :D

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Good to see you on the mainland Taza :ok Oddly enough Taza, Geelong is one team I don't fear as a Collingwood supporter. We belted them by over 100 points last year and I was at the game, and from memory we beat them the game before that, both at the MCG. Not sure where the game is next week but if it is at the MCG it will be a bigger test for Geelong in front of a huge crowd. Geelong don't play at the MCG that often and there is more pressure on them to perform than us, we have nothing to lose because people won't expect us to win. Admittedly the Cats form is great, and they have beaten teams comprehensively, but they have more or less had a full list to choose from last few weeks, most other teams don't have that luxury. Honestly, who have the Cats beaten? The only teams they have beaten in the Top 8 are the Eagles which was a fair effort but played at the Cattery where Eagles rarely win (don't play finals there). They beat Port Power in Adelaide and many teams are winning away and Port's form has been good but not great. They beat Adelaide in Adelaide which was a good win, but their form has only been fair and they currently sit eighth. The Cats have lost to the Dogs, the Kangas and the Hawks, and the Pies apply enough tackling and defensive pressure to put the Cats under a bit of pressure to see how they cope. They didn't cope too well with Essendon's pressure Friday night and the Bombers lost Davey and Hird during the game and didn't have Lloyd. It is also hard to keep winning every week. The Pies have beaten 3 teams in the Top 8, Kangaroos, Bombers and Crows. We have lost to Top 8 teams Eagles (2 goals), Hawks (8 points) and Port (3 goals or so), so our form holds up well compared to Geelongs. I was more worried about St Kilda today than Geelong next week. Everything may be in the Cat's favour next week to win the game, but they won't get it easy against the Pies at the MCG. :dude

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

Bjv, we saw you you guys were at last week we the Hawks. ;) Won't get within 5 goals of Geelong!...Seriously!!...no-one will from here in!

Thought if the Hawks were that good they would have belted Collingwood, they had almost their best side in, we didn't, so an 8 point loss was very creditable. We also missed many easy goals and had many more scoring shots than Hawthorn. One day the pies are going to kick straight for the whole game. Geelong is on top after Round 13 when no pressure is on them. Have a quick glance at Geelong's Finals record the last few years and see how they have performed when the real pressure is on. Collingwood may have lost 2 Grand Finals in a row, but at least we were able to handle the pressure of a Preliminary Final and actually win it to make the Grand Final. The Cats great run now is going to place even more added pressure when they get to the finals (at the MCG not Skilled), and imagine if they lost their first finals match? :loon Which team is going to be under the most pressure in the first week of the Finals? That's right, the Cats. Can win as many games as you like in the Home and Away games, but Finals is a different ball game.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Just noticed on Fox that Brisbane is 11 points up on West Coast halfway through the last quarter. Adelaide is belting the Hawks by about 10 goals halfway through the last quarter.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) The Brisbane game was one of the best games I've seen. Brisbane pressure was amazing!! To hold the Eagles to that kind of score at home is one of the best efforts in football that I can ever remember!! Didn't see the final I50 stats, but 35-35 @ 3/4 time showed how well Brisbane were travelling. Super effort. No mate, home game. Launceston. Over to the big island on August 9th for the Rd. 19. Melbourne/Doggies game. Hopefully Jeffers and Ads will have picked up a flight back by then...plan on having a drink or 2 on the Friday night. ;) Ash, where you at, geographicalogical-wise? Fancy a drink that weekend?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Bonus if Bruce is out (and I hope your referring to the commentator Taza :hope) He seems to think non of us are that interested and would switch of if not feeling "exited". Hate being committed to the mid Sunday game.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Ads was back Thursday gone and may need a few days to recover :lol Jeffers is still in England at the moment I believe. Think Ash is not that far from me Taza, about 4 or 5 K's. Where are you having a drink at? I watched most of last quarter of brisbane/Eagles match and was top football. I actually thought the two guernseys were brilliant. Loved seeing the Fitzroy one again, and the colours looked great on tv.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

Hopefully Jeffers and Ads will have picked up a flight back by then...plan on having a drink or 2 on the Friday night. ;)

We've lost Jeffers, he has moved back to England permantly, but id be keen to come up. Sure myself and Beejay could organise something. I got back on Thursday and am still jet lagged How about the West Coast result??? Anyone dare to say that they are gone? Not good signs for them at the moment despite the fact they are still 2nd on the table. Supprised with Hawthorns performance tonight also, they were flogged. I think Adelaide may be a bit of a dark horse in this year finals :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) I thought Jeffers was pretty keen to stay on for a while... He could have said something, I would have ducked over for a big weekend sooner. Well, now it seems we have no Melbournites...but Balleratians can probably tell me ;)...how is the weather looking over there today? Tempted by the over in the Carlton game...given it is indeed a Carlton game! I show a minimum of 187. The Blues have been under 191 just ONCE all season! A wet, windy day at Perth. I guess the worry is that without either FF, both teams might struggle a bit, but I'm sure it will be a wide open, free flowing game. 110ish I50's expected, and that should definately be enough to get over mid 180's with these defenses.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Crappy day here in Ballarat Taza, can't see Melbourne being much better. Raaning quite often and then a little bit of sun, fairly cold tho, great nipple weather :dude Forecast for Melbourne...Today will bring more grey skies to Melbourne, along with a few patchy showers. Cold, wintry temperatures will continue to reign over the city.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) I think Adelaide is more than a dark horse Ads. They have a fairly solid defence, much the same defnce that only let through around 70 points a game last year. taza might be able to provide some info on how the Crows are travelling right now. They also have players coming back into the team who will benefit over a few weeks, and they will be right to go come September. They will be looking at a top 4 spot. Imagine if Crows finish 4th and had to play Geelong in first week of finals :dude

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Blue skies here in Melbourne at the moment. But they reckon showers will be forthcoming. You never know with Melbourne weather anyway. At the moment I'd say the conditions will be fine, cant see it changing too soon.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Carlton vs Melbourne Prior to the last two losses Carlton have had, they were in some pretty good form with solid wins over Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide. Brendan Fevola will miss this game through a club imposed suspension, but I don't think this hurt the Blues as his form and attitude have been bad lately. Also worth noting is that in the wins over Bulldogs and Power, Carlton kicked 45 goals in total, with Fevola kicking only 3 of them. They have no fresh injuries and welcome back Andrew Walker from injury. Shaun Grigg will make his debut after some fantastic performances in the VFL, he is originally from Ballarat. Melbourne have a depleted squad this round, four top line players will miss this clash with main full forward David Neitz, Brad Green, Daniel Bell and Travis Johnstone all missing with injury. Carlton have good form over Melbourne with the Blues winning 3 of the past 4, and Carlton have won 3 of 4 games at the MCG this year which proves they play better on the bigger open grounds. Pick Carlton to WIN at $2.00 - (6/10) Centrebet

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) I'm a few drop kicks and fifty metre penalties up the road from bjv, in Ballarat. Very much committed to my Business Saturday mornings (different to good old days when I just had a job). The best option I have for a night out is a few beers nearby at Zagames watching Coll v Rich on the big screen. I would think if lost to Adel last week would have been more alarming loss for WCE. However, in the past reigning premeirs have been like WCE now and it seems to show that the season hunger is down a few percent. I've seen it before that they'll be good enough to perhaps get to GF then not get it done. Food for thought.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) ****! Your right Taza. It is Cameron and not MaCavaney missing. :wall

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Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) Carlton done again, this time to lowly Melbourne. Amazing stat here with Melbourne winning the hitouts 60-19. Again, it was the same old story with Carlton as they battled hard and played pretty well around the ground, they actually had 2 more scoring shots than Melbourne. But their defence again was shocking, absolutely shocking. Everytime a team enters the backline its pretty much a score every single time. Not sure how Denis Pagan is still in a job. Today young Shaun Grigg played his first game for the Blues, ive followed this kid since he was only young and he dominated our local football league in Ballarat year in year out through juniors. This year in the VFL he has dominated too, he broke his collar bone early in the year but has come back real strong and finally got his chance today. He was kept on the bench nearly all game, when he did come on he looked excellent and actually set up a couple of goals, but he kept getting dragged by Pagan, and he isnt the only young player Pagan has done this too. How the hell are the kids supposed to gain confidence when they keep getting dragged. I'll check out the % of game time he got when its published in tommorows herald sun because im more pissed off about this than the actual loss. Pagan has gotta go

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) The new guy I like for you ads is Young - except I thought he'd slot that goal at the end to keep them alive - no doubt he wasn't alone in that department though :wall. Grigg made mistakes when he got chances IMO (awareness, movement, pace of game) - I think today was just about giving him a taste. Love the mid-Sunday telecast how after a goal they spend 20secs telling us no more than what we just saw with own eyes then go to a three minute commercial break :@. Ox who played like wasn't that intersted, gave it away early because he wasn't interested, and is now a special comments man :@ combined with MaCavaney: 1. Simpson - tried to suggest this game was huge leap in improvenment for him. If they actually did follow the game they would have known he's been playing that well for last one and half seasons. 2. Wheatley - tried to suggest he was no more than a young fringe player who's game today would help his chances of becoming a regular. Well, he's 26yo, has only been in and out through injury and is easily in their best fifteen when fit. :puke

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Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

The new guy I like for you ads is Young - except I thought he'd slot that goal at the end to keep them alive - no doubt he wasn't alone in that department though :wall. Grigg made mistakes when he got chances IMO (awareness' date=' movement, pace of game) - I think today was just about giving him a taste.[/quote'] Young is an interesting one. He is an older player but is playing his first year in the VFL, he was drafted from Carltons VFL affiliate team the Bullants after 3 years of very solid football and is now starting to come on nicely. RE. Grigg - Sure he made mistakes, only an 18 year old playing his first game in the big time, but everytime he makes a mistake he should not be dragged. There was a beautiful play in the 2nd quarter where he dived on a loose ball under pressure, got the contested handball out to OhAilpin who then got it off to Kouta for a goal. Straight after that assist, Grigg was put on the bench. Great for confidence... :puke

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Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

Love the mid-Sunday telecast how after a goal they spend 20secs telling us no more than what we just saw with own eyes then go to a three minute commercial break :@. Ox who played like wasn't that intersted, gave it away early because he wasn't interested, and is now a special comments man :@ combined with MaCavaney:

I hear exactly what your saying Ashtee and couldnt agree more. I cannot stand channel 7 coverage. Because the game was delayed an hour i made an effort not to look at the score on the internet and tried watching the game as though it was live (which i rarely do). Once it was apparent Carlton were in trouble in the 3rd quarter I ended up checking the live score online to see if it was worth watching the rest and saw that Carlton had lost. There was no way i was watching the rest. Not because Carlton lost, but because of the shocking coverage. Its actually painful to watch/listen to. Did you see in the second quarter where the ball was kicked to Carltons backline and went out of bounds, they showed a replay and while the replay was on the crowd went mad cause Bryce Gibbs took a screamer, but they still had the replay on and we missed out on seeing the mark. Oh and dont get me started on MaCavaney and Swartz, pathetic they are..

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Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) How well is Drew Petrie going these days!! Kicked 7 goals last week and followed that up with 6 goals tonight. Plus he is a Ballarat boy, expect nothing less :dude Wonder what his coleman medal odds are, if he keeps this up he may be a dark horse

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

How well is Drew Petrie going these days!! Kicked 7 goals last week and followed that up with 6 goals tonight. Plus he is a Ballarat boy, expect nothing less :dude Wonder what his coleman medal odds are, if he keeps this up he may be a dark horse

Kicked six straight (was it seven straight last week?) and just as well considering the rest of the side were spraying them everywhere. Getting Richmonds Zac Dawson did help a little. Chat to his dad fairly reguarly. He's given me some spot on news a couple of times about late outs for both sides, in confidence of course. ;) :ok