AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

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Friday 29 June 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Essendon v Melbourne (10:40 BST)	1.24		2.30	125%	Related markets...Match Result
Saturday 30 June 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Geelong v Sydney (05:10 BST)	1.19		2.60	123%	Related markets...Match Result
Fremantle v Carlton (07:10 BST)	1.13		3.05	122%	Related markets...Match Result
St Kilda v Richmond (10:10 BST)	1.27		2.44	120%	Related markets...Match Result
Sunday 1 July 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Adelaide v West Coast (04:10 BST)	1.55		1.91	117%	Related markets...Match Result
Kangaroos v Western Bulldogs (05:10 BST)			1.57		Related markets...Match Result
Collingwood v Hawthorn (08:10 BST)	1.77		1.71	115%	Related markets...Match Result

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Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

										Overall Standings
#	Team	P	W	L	D	For	Agt	%	Pts
1	Geelong	12	9	3	0	1358	874	155.4	36
2	Hawthorn	12	8	4	0	1157	945	122.4	32
3	West Coast	12	8	4	0	1100	912	120.6	32
4	Collingwood	12	8	4	0	1120	1043	107.4	32
5	Adelaide	12	7	5	0	989	885	111.8	28
6	Essendon	12	7	5	0	1201	1162	103.4	28
7	W.Bulldogs	12	7	5	0	1223	1222	100.1	28
8	Port Adelaide	12	7	5	0	1127	1130	99.73	28
9	Kangaroos	12	7	5	0	1101	1137	96.83	28
10	Sydney	12	6	6	0	999	904	110.5	24
11	Fremantle	12	5	7	0	1155	1188	97.22	20
12	St Kilda	12	5	7	0	913	1032	88.47	20
13	Brisbane	12	4	7	1	958	1076	89.03	18
14	Carlton	12	4	8	0	1239	1524	81.3	16
15	Melbourne	12	2	10	0	938	1245	75.34	8
16	Richmond	12	1	10	1	1049	1348	77.82	6

Match Totals
		Quarters				Halves
#	Team	W	L	D	WR%	W	L	D	WR%
1	Geelong	34	13	1	70.83	18	5	1	75
2	Hawthorn	26	21	1	54.17	15	6	3	62.5
3	West Coast	28	18	2	58.33	16	7	1	66.67
4	Collingwood	26	20	2	54.17	14	9	1	58.33
5	Adelaide	27	21	0	56.25	14	9	1	58.33
6	Essendon	24	24	0	50	12	11	1	50
7	W.Bulldogs	22	23	3	45.83	8	15	1	33.33
8	Port Adelaide	22	24	2	45.83	10	14	0	41.67
9	Kangaroos	25	21	2	52.08	12	12	0	50
10	Sydney	23	23	2	47.92	16	8	0	66.67
11	Fremantle	22	25	1	45.83	12	11	1	50
12	St Kilda	22	24	2	45.83	9	15	0	37.5
13	Brisbane	21	27	0	43.75	8	16	0	33.33
14	Carlton	16	32	0	33.33	9	15	0	37.5
15	Melbourne	17	29	2	35.42	6	18	0	25
16	Richmond	18	28	2	37.5	8	16	0	33.33

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Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

Quarter Averages
		For				Against
	Team	¼	½	¾	FT	¼	½	¾	FT
1	Geelong	31	28	28	26	18	19	16	20
2	Hawthorn	19	23	27	27	20	21	20	18
3	West Coast	27	22	19	24	19	17	23	17
4	Collingwood	21	25	26	22	26	21	20	20
5	Adelaide	23	20	19	20	18	18	21	17
6	Essendon	24	25	24	28	21	29	28	19
7	W.Bulldogs	30	25	24	24	32	20	25	24
8	Port Adelaide	24	23	28	19	25	27	20	21
9	Kangaroos	26	22	21	23	20	23	17	34
10	Sydney	22	18	18	25	24	18	18	16
11	Fremantle	25	21	25	25	26	20	29	25
12	St Kilda	19	20	20	18	24	17	24	22
13	Brisbane	20	22	21	17	25	19	22	23
14	Carlton	29	23	31	20	32	31	31	33
15	Melbourne	20	17	19	22	27	30	24	23
16	Richmond	23	20	20	24	27	24	31	30

Scoring Statistics
		Avg Score		Avg Margin		Total Score		Round Total
	Team	For	Agt	Win	Lose	High	Low	High	Low
1	Geelong	113	73	58	13	222	69	2	0
2	Hawthorn	96	79	35	17	180	44	1	1
3	West Coast	92	76	36	25	137	64	0	0
4	Collingwood	93	87	19	19	120	66	2	0
5	Adelaide	82	74	26	16	110	57	0	1
6	Essendon	100	97	21	21	127	74	0	0
7	W.Bulldogs	102	102	22	31	141	57	0	1
8	Port Adelaide	94	94	26	37	126	60	1	0
9	Kangaroos	92	95	17	31	147	54	1	1
10	Sydney	83	75	29	13	118	44	0	0
11	Fremantle	96	99	26	23	137	58	1	0
12	St Kilda	76	86	35	42	125	43	0	5
13	Brisbane	80	90	34	36	136	35	1	2
14	Carlton	103	127	17	44	141	39	3	1
15	Melbourne	78	104	15	34	106	57	0	1
16	Richmond	87	112	49	35	124	65	0	0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

Margin Breakdown - Basic
		U 15.5		O 15.5		U 39.5		O 39.5
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Geelong	1	1	8	2	3	3	6	0
2	Hawthorn	1	1	7	3	7	4	1	0
3	West Coast	3	1	5	3	5	4	3	0
4	Collingwood	2	2	6	2	8	4	0	0
5	Adelaide	1	2	6	3	6	5	1	0
6	Essendon	4	1	3	4	6	5	1	0
7	W.Bulldogs	1	2	6	3	7	3	0	2
8	Port Adelaide	1	0	6	5	5	4	2	1
9	Kangaroos	1	1	6	4	7	3	0	2
10	Sydney	1	2	5	4	4	6	2	0
11	Fremantle	1	2	4	5	3	6	2	1
12	St Kilda	0	0	5	7	3	3	2	4
13	Brisbane	1	0	3	7	2	5	2	2
14	Carlton	2	1	2	7	4	4	0	4
15	Melbourne	1	3	1	7	2	5	0	5
16	Richmond	0	2	1	8	0	8	1	2

Margin Breakdown - Detailed
		1-19 pts		20-39 pts		40-59 pts		60+ pts
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Geelong	1	2	2	1	3	0	3	0
2	Hawthorn	1	3	6	1	0	0	1	0
3	West Coast	3	1	2	3	0	0	3	0
4	Collingwood	4	3	4	1	0	0	0	0
5	Adelaide	3	3	3	2	1	0	0	0
6	Essendon	4	2	2	3	0	0	1	0
7	W.Bulldogs	2	2	5	1	0	2	0	0
8	Port Adelaide	4	0	1	4	2	1	0	0
9	Kangaroos	4	2	3	1	0	1	0	1
10	Sydney	2	5	2	1	2	0	0	0
11	Fremantle	2	3	1	3	2	1	0	0
12	St Kilda	0	0	3	3	2	3	0	1
13	Brisbane	1	0	1	5	2	1	0	1
14	Carlton	3	3	1	1	0	1	0	3
15	Melbourne	2	3	0	2	0	4	0	1
16	Richmond	0	4	0	4	1	1	0	1

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Looks a great round of footy. Every game on the Friday and Saturday is interesting, then the AAMI block buster we're all awaiting. Kangaroos v Bulldogs should be a big one also, before settling down to some Wimbledom. Those players were stuffed at Subi yesterday, so Richmond get the Saints on 6-days. I feel, given the break that the Roos badly needed, they shouldn't be dogs to the dogs. I'm likely to be trying those two.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Yeah,, after last week I thought Kangas, but stats far closer than I had expected. Virtually identical...Dogs actually have better number in their last 5, but they do score less outside the Dome (and allow 1 more I50 a game, but play slightly better defense!)... ...I guess with Cross, Griffen, Eagleton out and Archer's milestone game the Kangas get the nod, but I still believe that the Doggies are the better team. If I had to take either, I think you'd have to say that Kangas at 2.00 or better would be the play...but just too tough to call for me. Was a little surprised about the St. Kilda price, tbh. Was all set to take the Tiges at +25ish...won't be near that high...so realistically I think the Saints are decent value @ 1.50+...but yeah, Ash makes a good point about the travel factor. Just a note on St. Kilda...on Sunday they were the first team ALL SEASON who scored at better than a shot every 2.05 entries. They went at 1.88. The lowest scoring team in the AFL... :cry Right, onto the rest... Essendon...1.62!! At the Dome v. a terrible Demons....1.62??!! Melbourne -12 I50's per game in their last 5...get only 45, and av'd only about 80 ppg. Just won't get the job done against the Bombers who are 4-1 indoors (statistically unlucky loss to Kangaroos), and have scored 95+ in all 5. Bombers form has been ok in the last 5, despite some seemingly poor results. Maybe some value due to head-to-head results...Melbourne won 4 of last 5, but were big favs in all 4. Melbourne snuck two 'lucky' wins, then got smashed by the Tigers!...'nuff said?? Geelong/Sydney will be a low scoring game, so will be tough to take Geelong minus any decent amount of points I think. Sydney allow just 43 I50's away from home...get just 41! Geelong allowed just 43 per game in last 5...a shot every 2.55 entries!!! Can't see Sydney hitting 60... I'll (hopefully) be on the under...Just have a sneaky feeling about the Swans here...think they just might be motivated enough to keep this one close, and aren't without a chance. I still reckon Geelong are a FAR better team in the Dome...Beaten by Kangaroos at home, then wins over a poor traveling Eagles (with a heap of injuries...who also lost to Essendon in Melbourne)...Freo and Brisbane. Just a funny thought that the Swans are half a chance in a total scrap. Bit of a shame Freo/Carlton isn't at the Dome....could have been the highest scoring game in history!! As it is, you'd have to suspect Freo will win, but 1.25 is far too short. In fact, Carlton could be worth a shot given 4 goals or there abouts?? Freo playing better in last 5 (+4 I50's) but bad kicking has let them down badly...one of the main culprits out this week, but that hurts their structure... ...just the opposite for the Blues, some very good kicking has kept them in games. One to ponder. Might be tempted by +25ish now I think about it...Hmmm... Port @ Brisbane...2 pretty bad teams. Brisbane can't score, both teams have really bad D's...but the game does look to have a touch of the "Freo's" about it, when Brisbane pumped them. Would have nearly had a stab at port at a decent price, but 1.75 favs? Hardly. Will be on West Coast +10ish I think. I mentioned last week that Adelaide's win over the Kangas was far less convincing that it appeared. In fact, the last 5 games show WC are clear favs...+10 I50's (Crows 0), big advatages in Clearances, contested ball, HO's to advatage and scoring... ...home/away evens things up, WC 52 I50's for and against...Crows -1 surprisingly!! Eagles problem away from home is that they just can't score, just a shot every 2.26 entries...but again, surprising that Adelaide allow a shot every 1.93 entries, and allow 23 shots per game. They've lost at home to Essendon, Collingwood, Geelong had 7 more shots..snuck home v. Richmond. Eagles have won 7 of the last 8 meetings...3 of 3 at AAMI! (2 as favs...one as 3.00 'dogs). Crows won't blow them out, if they win at all. 10 points could be very handy here, imo. Hawthorn?!! 1.73ish available...Might go as high as 1.90ish if Rocca challanges and gets off (which is expected I think). Last 5 games they have had the best performed mid-field in the comp. Allowing just 41 I50's!...+10 per game...all other stats reasonably similar, but that's a pretty big hurdle for Collingwood to overcome. Not sure Collingwood's strength of wins has been all that good, but I guess the same can be said about Hawthorn...wins v. Geelong and Eagles both at Tassie... ...still I Hawthorn are simply the better team here. I like the 1.75ish where it stands, but will hold off... ...I know it's a bit risky forming my own opinion before hearing what Anthony Rocca has to say about it, but that's a risk I'm just going to have to take ;) ;) God Luck this week guys.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Koschitzke out. http://www.afl.com.au/Season2007/News/NewsArticle/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=45975 Tiges?!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

...I guess with Cross' date=' Griffen, Eagleton out ...[/quote']Murphy also missing, I believe. I rate Hawthorn 1.72 with Rocca out and 2.00 if he plays. Going on last week, Koschitzke a huge minus. Talk that Gehrig is back though, a bit earlier than expected. Simmonds presense improves Richmonds structure, you'd expect. Big motivation for Harvey last week but is the true team heart not 100% with the club? This has been a missing ingredient so far IMO. Richmond to build on last week IMV, and the poor effort of Melb deceives in analysing this IMO. Worth the shot. ps. Sorry to interupt Carlton, Collingwood banter with betting discussion. As I've said before, can be thankfull though that no Adelaide/Port supporters here. :hope :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

Friday, 29th June
Essendon v Melbourne	Telstra D (N)	1.62	SportsBet	2.5	Pinnacle	101.7%
Saturday, 30th June
Geelong v Sydney	Skilled (D)	1.36	VicBet	3.5	Pinnacle	102.1%
Fremantle v Carlton	Subiaco (D)	1.28	Portland	4.2	Sportingbet	101.9%
Brisbane v Port Adelaide	Gabba (N)	2.15	Pinnacle	1.82	Betfair	101.5%
St. Kilda v Richmond	Telstra D (N)	1.67	SportsBet	2.4	RacingOdds	101.5%
Sunday, 1st July
Adelaide v West Coast	AAMI (E)	1.68	RacingOdds	2.33	Pinnacle	102.4%
Kangaroos v W Bulldogs	MCG (D)	2.05	Pinnacle	1.87	Centrebet	102.3%
Collingwood v Hawthorn	Telstra D (T)	2.2	Centrebet	1.76	Pinnacle	102.3%

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Big Outs this week- Hall, kosi, Judd, Rocca ....Daniher.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) The Run Home

The final ten weeks of the regular season should provide plenty of twists and turns. Some will fall by the wayside and some will launch a late challenge. There are still twelve teams in the race and I’ve checked their fixtures to see how difficult their run home is. Some have it good, others have an uphill battle.

ADELAIDE - Have 6 home games remaining, with 5 against finals contenders. - Could cement themselves in the top 4 in the next 4 weeks. - Can afford to drop 1 home game, but must win at least 1 game away from home. # I think they will win 7 out 10 and finish with 14 wins.

BRISBANE - Have 6 home games remaining. - There 4 away games are against the top 4 teams. - Can put the skids under Port, Kangaroos and Sydney’s finals assault. # I think they will win 4 out of 10 and finish with 8.5 wins.

CARLTON - Have 4 interstate trips in the last 10 rounds, with 3 in the next 4 weeks. - Don’t play a team in the top 8 in the next 5 weeks. - Can put the skids under Collingwood, Essendon and the Kangaroos finals assault. # I think they will win 2 out of 10 and finish with 6 wins.

COLLINGWOOD - Play 8 games at the MCG and 2 at Telstra Dome, with no more travel. - Next 4 weeks hold the key, must win at least 2 to challenge for a top 4 finish. - Play the bottom 5 teams in the run home. # I think they will win 6 out of 10 and finish with 14 wins.

ESSENDON - Have 2 more interstate trips, both to Perth in August. - Must win 2 of the next 3 at Telstra Dome to be a finals chance. (Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs) - Play 7 out of 10 against finals contenders. # I think they will win 5 out of 10 and finish with 12 wins.

FREMANTLE - Have 6 home games remaining, including Essendon, Geelong and West Coast. - Have 2 trips to Adelaide and must win at least 1. - Biggest test between rounds 16-20. # I think they will win 7 out of 10 and finish with 12 wins.

GEELONG - Have 4 winnable games at home. - Have 2 winnable interstate games against Fremantle and Brisbane. -Have a tricky month ahead, but should finish strongly. # I think they will win 7 out of 10 and finish with 16 wins.

HAWTHORN - Have 4 interstate trips ahead including 2 in Launceston. - Would need to win 2 of the next 4 to entertain a top 4 finish. - A tough finish to the season playing Port, Bulldogs and Sydney. # I think they will win 5 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

KANGAROOS - Have 3 interstate trips remaining in the space of 4 weeks between rounds 15-18. - Play the bottom 4 teams in the run home. - Final 4 games at Telstra Dome including 3 against finals contenders. # I think they will win 4 out of 10 and finish with 11 wins.

MELBOURNE - Have 4 interstate trips including 3 against finals contenders. - Only play 4 of the top 8 teams and none of the top 3. - Can put the skids under Sydney, Collingwood and the Bulldogs finals chances. # I think they will win 2 out of 10 and finish with 4 wins.

PORT ADELAIDE - Have 5 home games remaining including 3 against finals contenders. Play 4 out of 5 at home between rounds 15-19. - Have away games against Geelong, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs. - Play against 4 of the top 5. # I think they will win 4 out of 10 and finish with 11 wins.

RICHMOND - Have 5 games left at the MCG, and travel interstate twice. - Play 6 of the top 8 and none of the bottom 4 teams. - Can upset plenty of teams finals chances, and play St.Kilda twice. # I think they will win 3 out of 10 and finish with 4.5 wins.

ST.KILDA - Have 7 games left at the Dome, and only travel to Sydney in the run home. - Play 5 of the top 8 teams. - Must start stringing wins together from now to make the finals. # I think they will win 6 out of 10 and finish with 11 wins.

SYDNEY - Have 5 home games remaining, but only 1 against a top 8 team. Must win them all to secure a finals spot. - Play only 4 of the top 8 teams. - Best chance to make finals is to win their last 6 games that are winnable and not a lot of travel. # I think they will win 7 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

WESTCOAST - Have 5 home games and can’t afford to lose one if they are to make the top 4. - Travel to Adelaide twice and Telstra Dome 3 times and need to win twice. - Play only 4 of the top 8 teams. # I think they will win 5 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

WESTERN BULLDOGS - Have 8 games at Telstra Dome and travel to Adelaide. - Play 6 out of the top 8 teams and the Kangaroos twice. - Only play 1 of the bottom 4. # I think they will win 6 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

The Big Questions

Are Adelaide slowly building to a premiership similar to 1997-8? If Nathan Buckley returns, can he only play as a forward? If Hird gets injured, are Essendon finished? Which two players can Geelong least afford to lose in their premiership chase? Will the Hawks start to struggle as the season goes on? Do the Kangaroos have enough good players to make the finals? Do Port have the backline to stand up in a finals series? Will injuries derail St.Kilda’s finals assault? Has age caught up with Sydney? Can the Bulldogs find another gear in September? Do the Eagles have the hunger to win it again?

My Final Ladder

16 – Geelong

14 – Adelaide, Collingwood

13 – West Coast, Hawthorn, Sydney, Western Bulldogs

12 – Essendon, Fremantle 11 – Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, St.Kilda 8.5 – Brisbane 6 – Carlton 4.5 – Richmond 4 – Melbourne

Let the battle begin.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) I'm starting to wonder if West Coast are short on condition. They've had some fade outs. Geelong - Ablett and Bartel. Losing KP players won't hurt them but I'd imagine a couple of quality ground players or someone like Wojcinski would have more of an effect. I think Hawks will carry through but you'd expect finals experience may leave them a touch short in the end.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) West Coast actually have some bad outs at the moment and are relying on second tier players. Last year they also faded in the middle of the season and lost 3 out of 5 games if I recall correctly but peaked towards finals. In the next 4 weeks they are due to have back Embley, Hansen, Judd, and 'possibly' even Cousins. If all goes smoothly they should peak at the right time, a couple rounds before finals. If injuries stay with them I dont think they can challenge this year. My premiership fancies at the moment are Adelaide, but thats only if their forwards stop getting injured. Ricciuto needs to fire.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Whats the go with Neil Danniher. A mate told me on msn just before that he has stood down. Dont get any news over here in England, so whats up?? Any other news happened this week that i may of missed?

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Melbourne decided to create some council group to analyse the situation over the next 5 weeks and ultimately decide Danihers fate. Daniher said screw that... I'm resigning. He'll play out till the end of the season, so Melbourne have 10 weeks to find a new coach. I think Melbourne supporters really would like Voss to coach, however he has no coaching experience. A more likely replacement perhaps will be Longmire. EDIT: It would appear that Melbourne have decided fridays game will be Danihers last! Riley (assistant coach) will take the helm for the rest of the season until a new coach has been appointed. Will Melbourne Tank? Will they win for their coach one last time? On a matter of tanking, interestingly if anyone was to benefit from tanking it would be Cartlon. If they dont win any more games this season they will get pick 1 and 3/4 depending where they finish. So even if Richmond or Melbourne finish last on the ladder they wont get the first pick. I dont think Melbourne will Tank, with a new coach coming in they must play for their spot in the team. Is it like Soccer, when a coach is sacked the team has a great game first up?

[pete]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) After Barry Halls poor form this season and Paul Roos comment after their loss at the weekend that they dont know what level of fitness he was at because he wouldn't tell them (WTF). Roos has now come out and said Hall has a serious groin injury and although he wanted to play this Saturday, Roos said they were standing him down and there are genuine fears he may not play again this season!

[Jimmyboy]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) A couple of years ago when Adelaide and Hawthorn got new coaches, their first up games were more impressive than their previous form - so it's definitely a factor. I don't think Melbourne will play well this week for Daniher but the week after, who knows? I think the value lies with the Bombers over 39 in this game, paying around 5.00. It will also be a high scoring game so the over 185 on Betfair could be a good bet. Sydney getting 3 goals in is pretty generous considering the likelihood of it being an ugly low scoring scrap. I also think they have more motivation than the Cats, who have a home final and double chance sewn up, while the Swans need to win this to make the finals. If they fall to 6-7 they are in trouble. Kangaroos as the outsiders are also a possible bet - the Bulldogs' form this year hasn't been that impressive and the Roos defeated them in the corresponding fixture last year as 3.50 underdogs.

[pete]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Im a bit of a novice when it come to aussie rules and was wondering does the amount of traveling for away games have a big effect? i know that this year in the NRL that since they have introduced the Monday night games that the teams have a very poor record backing up for the next round. Looking at St Kildas effort last week winning away against W.C. will they be able to back up ? considering Richmond had a week off.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Preparation is impeccable these days, I think that travel makes the smallest of differences. Travelling twice in a row can be pretty bad though- but I usually tie that into Home ground advantage.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Collingwood vs Hawthorn

#	Year	Rd	Team	Score		Versus	Score	Gnd	Result	Marg
1	2006	17	Collingwood	16.17 (113)	vs	Hawthorn	11.2 (68)	MCG	WON	45
2	2006	2	Collingwood	18.11 (119)	vs	Hawthorn	12.12 (84)	TD	WON	35
3	2005	10	Collingwood	17.6 (108)	vs	Hawthorn	12.8 (80)	MCG	WON	28
4	2004	14	Collingwood	20.20 (140)	vs	Hawthorn	11.9 (75)	MCG	WON	65

The Pies have won the last 4 meetings between these two teams, and quite convincingly each time. The Hawks used to be a bit of a bogey side for Collingwood as they beat the black and white in 5 of the previous 6 meetings.

A big ask for Collingwood this week to beat Hawthorn. The Pies have not beaten a Top 4 side all season and they come off aa one week break as opposed to Hawthorn’s two weeks. The game against Sydney was relentless tackling and pressure all night and it would have taken a toll on some of the young players in Magpie land. The Pies are also now missing their key forward Anthony Rocca who was rubbed out for 2 weeks for a hip and shoulder bump, incidentally, the same 2 week time frame as Nathan Eagleton who used a full blooded deliberate elbow with intent to Chris Tarrant’s head. Eagleton should have got 6 weeks for that, but somehow he did not, if it was Byron Pickett it would have been different.

Collingwood’s defence is again undermanned against a tallish, functioning Hawtorn tall forward line, and the Hawks tend to go straight down the middle, not out wide like Sydney did last week. With the 2 week break, smallish defence, Rocca out, tough game Saturday night, the fact we don’t play well at Telstra Dome, all leads to what I think may be a Hawthorn drubbing of Collingwood. Everything is in the Hawks favour for an easy win. If Hawthorn can not beat Collingwood this week then they are finals pretenders. We have only one key position player, and that is Travis Cloke at Centre Half Forward who has played about 20 games.

Malthouse looks set to blood another Collingwood debutant in Reid. So that will be another player in the team with no AFL games experience and the Hawks should win this easily as they are too well equipped this weekend.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

A couple of years ago when Adelaide and Hawthorn got new coaches, their first up games were more impressive than their previous form - so it's definitely a factor. I don't think Melbourne will play well this week for Daniher but the week after, who knows? I think the value lies with the Bombers over 39 in this game, paying around 5.00. It will also be a high scoring game so the over 185 on Betfair could be a good bet. Sydney getting 3 goals in is pretty generous considering the likelihood of it being an ugly low scoring scrap. I also think they have more motivation than the Cats, who have a home final and double chance sewn up, while the Swans need to win this to make the finals. If they fall to 6-7 they are in trouble. Kangaroos as the outsiders are also a possible bet - the Bulldogs' form this year hasn't been that impressive and the Roos defeated them in the corresponding fixture last year as 3.50 underdogs.

New coach syndrome over the years sits at about 50/50, and your point is very valid, Jimmy - those teams have almost always been the 'dog. I actually think Melbourne will fire up tommorow night though. Personally don't fancy Sydney. Tipped to be quite windy at Geelong and those sort of local conditions always give Geeleng that extra advantage IMO. O'Loughlin carrying injury also, I suspect & reportably.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

Im a bit of a novice when it come to aussie rules and was wondering does the amount of traveling for away games have a big effect? i know that this year in the NRL that since they have introduced the Monday night games that the teams have a very poor record backing up for the next round. Looking at St Kildas effort last week winning away against W.C. will they be able to back up ? considering Richmond had a week off.

I think koi makes a good point about the preparation. Collingwood won on six days off Perth (beat Rich on six day) after choosing to travel back immediately after showering (don't mean to get you excited bjv). It was a gut busting game last week for the Saints, and they're on six days against Richmonds eight days rest. I feel the Perth factor needs to be applied in this one. Don't forget (as i mentioned above), Saints played for Harvey last week wheras it seems not all have had their heart 100% in the club thus far. Apart from ther ruck stocks they have had a few players trickle back in lately, though. I'm trying Richmond.

[Jimmyboy]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

New coach syndrome over the years sits at about 50/50, and your point is very valid, Jimmy - those teams have almost always been the 'dog. I actually think Melbourne will fire up tommorow night though. Personally don't fancy Sydney. Tipped to be quite windy at Geelong and those sort of local conditions always give Geeleng that extra advantage IMO. O'Loughlin carrying injury also, I suspect & reportably.

So do you think Melbourne's loss last week was an aberration and they'll be able to recover mentally for this week's game? Personally the further Essendon drift out the more attractive they become - 1.80 at the moment could hopefully become 1.88-1.90 by game time. I think with a finals spot up for grabs this is a game they will want to win - although their most recent showing against Port is a tad worrying. I agree with your thoughts on the Saints Ash - I think Harvey was a big factor in their win last week. West Coast's complacency and lack of Judd also came into it though - I watched the game and when they got that lead in the first quarter they took their foot off the gas; same thing in the final term when they got to within a goal. Maybe they want to peak for the finals by not exerting themselves too much. But I think St Kilda might revert to type this week - I don't know if 8 points in is enough for the Tigers though.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) IMO Melbourne were caught complacent by a Richmond who they were'nt expecting to be so good. That game was all about tricks of the mind IMO. A lot of talk through the week that Melb felt they could still make the eight, and wallowing just a little off nailing two high ranked opponents - that's all it takes sometimes. It's just that reason why they should be steeled to turn that around + the Daniher factor. I still make Essendon the 1.80 favourite despite all that, althogh i had them the 1.67 fave pre Daniher news. The Port hiccup should also serve to kick-start their heads into gear.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) A terrific round of footy awaits after the extraordinary events of the week. Melbourne’s disgraceful performance against Richmond hastened the demise of Neale Daniher. Let’s hope he isn’t the only scapegoat as the Demons head for the wooden spoon. It’s time to get rid of the downhill skiers that have plagued the Daniher era. He had the team to win a premiership, but the mental capacity of some of his leaders constantly let him down. It’s time for an easy pay cheque in the media for a couple of years for Daniher and come back bigger and better in 2010. Tonight’s game at the Dome is now too difficult to assess. The emotions of the Melbourne camp will dictate how the game is played. Melbourne have the better midfield, but will be stretched in defence. People are overlooking how important this game is to Essendon. If they lose this game, the finals become more distant looking ahead to who they face in the next month. The Bombers need a better start than they’ve got in the past 2 games and need a big contribution from Lloyd and Lucas. The Bombers should prevail but I’ll just be an interested onlooker.

The game at Skilled Stadium should show the gulf between the Cats and Sydney. The Cats are near full strength and winning as they please. The Swans are on the ropes, without their key forward and key playmaker. They will try and strangle the Cats all day but the Cats don’t have many weaknesses to exploit. The Cats aren’t high scorers at home but should restrict the Swans and win comfortably. Injuries are starting to bite at the Blues and that means blowouts. Losing Walker is a big blow, but losing Whitnall is a blessing allowing Waite to go back and stiffen their defence. The Dockers team looks strong and missing Tarrant for one week shouldn’t hamper them. Parker is back to improve their defence and allow McPharlin to run amok up forward. Pavlich will be impossible to stop with Bell and J.Carr in great form. The Dockers to win by plenty. No interest and no confidence in the Saturday night games, because they could easily go either way. Super Sunday kicks off at AAMI Stadium with Adelaide needing to keep chasing a top 4 spot against the Eagles. The Crows haven’t been able to get on a roll this season, but must now keep winning their home games. Their forward structure isn’t very reliable, only averaging 70 points at home in the last 4 games. I have been impressed with them in their last 2 games and they look to be building for September. The Eagles are missing Judd badly and it showed last week. The likes of Rosa ,Priddis and Stenglein looked like your run-of-the mill midfielders last week without Judd, Cousins and Fletcher around to take the heat of them. The Eagles attack will pose no problem for the Crows, with Adelaide to win comfortably. The Kangaroos will do whatever necessary to beat the Dogs for Glenn Archer’s 300th milestone. With poor conditions expected, it plays right into the hands of the Kangaroos who have more hardness around the ball. A crucial game in a finals context, but the Roos wont let Archer down. The Pies can’t wait for the game against the Hawks to start after the week they’ve had. Rolling the dice on Rocca was a punt that didn’t pay off and copped 2 games instead of 1. He was never going to get off and reinforces that you can hit anyone in the head in future. That lesson should have been learnt from the week earlier when Hille copped a week for a head-high hit. The Alan Didak debacle shows there are still plenty of meatheads in football. I hope he enjoyed his few hours with the Hells Angels. The Pies couldn’t afford to lose him as well as Rocca to take on the Hawks. It should be a great game and will definitely be won in the midfield. The Pies have shown in the past the can close down the Hawks and will need to do it again to win. Burns, Pendlebury, Thomas and Lockyer are in top form and will be hard for the Hawks to handle. Missing Rocca might not be such a bad thing seeing he has been anonymous in at least half of their games and gives Reid a chance to excel. It’ll be a very close game, but I think the Hawks will sneak home. I snagged a few tickets to the game and looking forward to a great contest.

Team Strength for Round 13

Strong 92% Geelong, Hawthorn 85% Essendon, Kangaroos, Port Adelaide Weak 73% Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond 71% Western Bulldogs, Collingwood.

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

ESSENDON 106 Melbourne 85 GEELONG 105 Sydney 80 FREMANTLE 110 Carlton 85 ST.KILDA 85 Richmond 106 Brisbane 75 PORT ADELAIDE 91 ADELAIDE 83 West Coast 92 KANGAROOS 79 Western Bulldogs 96 Collingwood 90 HAWTHORN 118

Suggested Bet

GEELONG Margin 1-39 KANGAROOS Win ADELAIDE Margin 1-39

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) The perfect result for h'cap punters (not for bookies :D) with Geelong by spot on the 18.

[Jimmyboy]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

The perfect result for h'cap punters (not for bookies :D) with Geelong by spot on the 18.

Which side were you on? I got the Swans +18.5 - some nervous moments late in that match when Ablett put them 23 points up...I really thought Geelong deserved to win by more.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) Been a couple of perfect results so far. Essendon sneaking home in the last 6 secs was great for all...Essendon ML, Melbourne h'cap...Bombers continue their finals run, Melbourne showed plenty of spirit and guts in Neaile's last game, but also kept their priority pick hopes alive! :D Someone said earlier it would be a high scoring game, so hopefully they jumped on the over and won... ...wins for all!! Happy to be on WC +9.5 and Hawks @ 1.73 today. (Sorry Chairman, nothing personal, but a bit of a well, not so classy, pointless post really.)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)

Which side were you on? I got the Swans +18.5 - some nervous moments late in that match when Ablett put them 23 points up...I really thought Geelong deserved to win by more.

I took Geelong SU at the 1.35. Even that was a nervous moment when Sydney got to 11pts. Cat's slowed up by all the injuries. How assy are Essendon. Melbourne handed another close one to them with dumb tempo too soon, and now they get a crack at Geelong with possibly a few outs. As I've harped on before, these million dollar coaches need to stop losing their clubs games. Tempo shouldn't happen with four minutes on the clock! Fourty seconds is the maximum they should defend IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) I think it's very much an established fact now that 2 minutes is the absolute maximum time you can chip it around...1.30ish when the other team cares about it... ...I'd had a few beers Friday night and haven't seen a replay, but I had the distinct impression on the night that from half way thru the second, right up until the last holding the ball call (which was definately there), that Melbourne had a MASSIVE run with the umpires? Just seemed that every 50/50, esp. at important times went their way... But, like I said, I could be wrong...I did go to bed thinking how poorly Lloyd is playing atm, only to see he'd kicked 4.2 and had about 20 possies! :lol Collingwood/Hawthorn under 197.5 I show the maximum score as about 189...Not sure where this one is coming from actually... Collingwood only topped this number v. Bulldogs, Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane...and as noted earlier, Hawks best defensive midfield in the business atm. Rocca out, Didak questionable (playing wise, not morally ;)) Hawthorn over this v. Doggies, Essendon and Carlton last week...which I guess is where the high total is coming from... Only 1.85 @ Global for totals in the last couple of weeks...not entirely happy about that, but Lasseters' numbers aren't great...