NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd)

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State of Origin - Rugby (Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007) Queensland - $1.60 vs New South Wales - $2.35

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I may as well be the first to say something.. Is it me,or does this Queensland side not look as strong as it could be,at present I am still backing the Maroons in at 1 - 12 but the Blues pack looks very strong and I think the forwards may well lean towards the Blues rather than the Maroons,the Backlines look fairly even but Hunt,Lockyer and Thurston are well above any in the Blues. This series could be alot closer than people are thinking and I don't see the Maroons blowing out against the Blues,very intresting line ups.Maroons 1 - 12 for me at present in Game 1.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I'm a queenslander mate, and I think we're a lot weaker than we need to be. Players like Tate and berrigan shouldn't be there on form but I was surprised too by NSW selections. As I just said in the NRL thread, how the Sharks backrow of Gallen and Bird aren't there is beyond me. Both players have been superb this year, real 80min players who hit hard in defence and run hard at the line. As a Queenslander I'm glad they aren't there. Can't imagine a rookie half in Mullen is going to help NSW either. The kid has a lot of class but I'm not so sure he's quite ready to win a battle against Lockyer and Hunt. On series Odds though, I'd aruge NSW are the better value.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Yeah mate agree with you there,I have a number of issus with either sides selections as well. Kimmorley,Hoffman,Gallen,how they never got in is astounding to me and for the Maroons the same two players you mentioned are strange to me also,Berrigan,well maybe for his value as a utility but Tate's inclusion is mystifying to say the least. You might find this hard to believe mate,but Queensland is loved over here mate,the majority of Kiwis love them,me included,but it stems back from the original Origins when it was truly a war on the field,but trust me mate,you Queenslanders are almost honarary Kiwis over here bro,no lies either.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Didn't know that about Queenslanders, but I can sort of see the similarities. Kiwis are so often the underdog in a match against Australia, and for so many years it was the same in Origin, NSW the Australia of Origin and Qld the perenial underdogs who stand up to their bigger opponents with their proud spirit.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) You are spot on mate,no wonder us Kiwis like you Queenslanders.lol

[AJ]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I think the two home matches will tip the series towards Queensland

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I may as well do this now and get it over with,my bet is alredy placed,so... Queensland vs New South Wales,State of Origin,Game 1. The favourites tag does not sit well on the shoulders of the Queenslanders,I don't know if this is the first series when the Maroons have been favs,but i'm pretty sure it is. The maroons have an excellent havles combination in Thurston and Lockyer and a fantastic front row in Price,Petro and Smith(quite possibly those 5 players are the cream of the NRL crop,almost) their back row of Webb,Carroll and Jhonson bring great defence and good yardage,but the areas where they look soft are their bench which seems a bit soft and a few selections in their backline,mainly Tate,although how many times has he stood up in rep matches,I can understand as to why he is there,but other players could of been used.Hodges,I don't like as a person,but as a player he can be brilliant on his day and deserves his place.The one area I think the Maroons have selected well is Hunt at Fullback,he is the Kangaroos full back and plays well,Slater and Bowen may provide great excitement,but defence wise neither of those two players are even in the same ball park,Hunt was the correct decision. As for the Blues,well I think they look very strong,their forward pack will compete very well with the Maroons pack,and their backline is quite good looking in attack and defence,the Blues main advantage looks to be their bench,which is very strong with some very big and strong runners set to enter the game that will test the Maroons.Their forwards in White,Buderus,Mason,Ryan and co will carry the Blues forward,but the Blues main weakness is their halves,Anasta is getting back to his best and deserves his selection but Mullen does'nt at all in my opinion.Andrew Jhons is retired is'nt he? Are you honestly trying to tell me that Kimmorley or Gower are not better than him,or is it just the fact the Jhons is Mullens mentor and thats reason enough to pick him?? i find his selection to have Jhons name all over it and find his selection to be very biased and just plain unfair,to other players playing well and in winning sides,which the Knights I assure you all are not,very strange decision,I hope it bites them on the ass. I don't believe that this will be a high scoring game ,but I do think that Queensland will win game 1,if any of these matches could blow out,it looks to be Game 2 when the Blues are back in NSW and could get one over on the Queenslanders,but here tonight I will most definitly be taking 1-12 on the Maroons. In truth the Queenslanders may have the Australian Fullback,Half back,Centre,Standoff,Hooker,Prop and Second rower,but in these matches that means little and to be really honest,if two of these matches were'nt in Queensland I would expect the Blues to win in 3 matches,but the Queenslanders lift at home and with two matches there as AJ has already noted,you can see them getting the dough. So for Game 1,home advantage swings the balance to the Maroons,but I would'nt expect it to be by more than 4 or 6 points,this Blues side are no pushovers and will not die wondering,you can bet that they will keep both matches in Queensland very close and have us punters on the edge of our seats,so for Game 1 heres where i'm going... Queensland by 12 points or less @ 3.10 Total points in match 21 - 30 @ 4.50 Total points in match 31 - 40 @ 3.75 The 12 points or less looks to be very much bank in my opinion,but the starts for either side,should really be missed and heres a few quick fire stats that should tell you that margins are the way to go.. 1.In 78 matches of Origin,both sides have 38 wins a peice with two draws. 2.The Blues have won 12 series to the Maroons 11 3.The Blues have scored 1242 total points in origin matches and the Maroons have scored 1236 Try and find another comp with those kind of stats,you can't,don't bother with the starts,Queensland by 12 or less is the ticket. Good Luck to all for tonights match. I just though i'd add,if theres any Maoris out there,I'm having boil up for dinner tonight,Brisket,Watercress,Doughboys and spuds,hmm yummy,and tomorrow for dinner before the Origin it's Hangi for din dins,YUMMY. My mouths watering already.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I'm just going to add in here,way off topic,but even tho I fancy Milan to win the CL,after talking to a friend of mine,he told me that Liverpool have won more than 97% of their cup finals by penalty shootout and at the odds on offer for that at $10 to $15 depending on where you live,we should take them. What a night and morning for us in Australia and NZ,Wedesday night we get to watch the first State of Origin match and then we wake up on Thursday morning to watch the CL Final,a great 12 hours of top class sports,Awesome stuff.

[mattsthebest]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Jumbo, that stats not quite right. Liverpool have won 97% of all cup finals when they've gone to penalties. Not won 97% of all their cups through penalty shootout. In case your wondering I'm a Liverpool supporter...go reds! ;) It would however be smart if Liverpool were to take it to penalties, because they do have the best penalty stopper in the world. But personally I think this will be decided in normal time this time around.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd)

Jumbo' date=' that stats not quite right. Liverpool have won 97% of all cup finals when they've [u']gone to penalties. Not won 97% of all their cups through penalty shootout. In case your wondering I'm a Liverpool supporter...go reds! ;) It would however be smart if Liverpool were to take it to penalties, because they do have the best penalty stopper in the world. But personally I think this will be decided in normal time this time around.

Sweet as bro,thanks for the correction,I was actually wondering how on earth Liverpool had been taken to penaltys in 97% of Cup Final matches,I must of took what he was saying wrong,But thanks for setting me straight mate. Just a bit of an update on Origin here,Webb is out for the Maroons,but they have brought in Kafusi to cover him,so they miss some experience but not to much in yardage,I'll stick with the Maroons by 12 or less. Thanks mattsthebest for setting me straight.:ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd)

What a night and morning for us in Australia and NZ,Wedesday night we get to watch the first State of Origin match and then we wake up on Thursday morning to watch the CL Final,a great 12 hours of top class sports,Awesome stuff.

Will be an awesome little period. I still remember a couple of years back, Bowen intercepts in golden point to win Origin 1, then a few hours later Dudek shuts down Milan in a shootout. That was awesome :D No bets yet for Origin but there are two I like: QLD by 1-12 Total Match Points 31-40 Qld I think have a minor edge but this is Origin and I cannot see a blowout this year. NSW I think actually have the better pack but Qld's superior halves will see they get the job done. As for total match points, this follows on a bit from no blowout scores, so I think scores should be fairly low. 10 of the past 21 Origins have gone 31-40 and I think this will be very much in the frame again. As with Origins too, I think that an 80min draw bet is a very good idea, even if just for cover on the Qld 1-12. Will have a couple of small interest try scorer bets too. For first try I like Inglis, as he'll play left wing and it's a side of the field Lockyer and Hunt like to play to. For last I'll go with Brent Tate, he's quite a prominent last try-scorer and he could capitalize off the back of Hodges. Obviously I am a Queenslander so no NSW players were considered. Will decide tomorrow, but I very much expect that I will be on 31-40pts and Qld 1-12.

[pete]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Jumbo, I agree with you to a certain extent about Mullen but i think the blues selectors had to take a gamble on him as Gower has been rubbish and i think his best days are behind him and although im a sharkies fan i dont rate Kimmorley, he was found out at that level the last time he played origin, i think that Orford would have been a better option. Should be a cracking game but agree with your comments that the Blues weakness in the halves will cost them the game. I have a $10 3x leg multi running from last nights game took total score 21-30 into origin game same total, into 0-0 draw after 90 min in the C.L. final, wish me luck.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd)

Jumbo, I agree with you to a certain extent about Mullen but i think the blues selectors had to take a gamble on him as Gower has been rubbish and i think his best days are behind him and although im a sharkies fan i dont rate Kimmorley, he was found out at that level the last time he played origin, i think that Orford would have been a better option. Should be a cracking game but agree with your comments that the Blues weakness in the halves will cost them the game. I have a $10 3x leg multi running from last nights game took total score 21-30 into origin game same total, into 0-0 draw after 90 min in the C.L. final, wish me luck.

Good luck with your bets Pete,lets hope for a great night and morning of sports for you bro.:hope

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd)

Will be an awesome little period. I still remember a couple of years back, Bowen intercepts in golden point to win Origin 1, then a few hours later Dudek shuts down Milan in a shootout. That was awesome :D No bets yet for Origin but there are two I like: QLD by 1-12 Total Match Points 31-40 Qld I think have a minor edge but this is Origin and I cannot see a blowout this year. NSW I think actually have the better pack but Qld's superior halves will see they get the job done. As for total match points, this follows on a bit from no blowout scores, so I think scores should be fairly low. 10 of the past 21 Origins have gone 31-40 and I think this will be very much in the frame again. As with Origins too, I think that an 80min draw bet is a very good idea, even if just for cover on the Qld 1-12. Will have a couple of small interest try scorer bets too. For first try I like Inglis, as he'll play left wing and it's a side of the field Lockyer and Hunt like to play to. For last I'll go with Brent Tate, he's quite a prominent last try-scorer and he could capitalize off the back of Hodges. Obviously I am a Queenslander so no NSW players were considered. Will decide tomorrow, but I very much expect that I will be on 31-40pts and Qld 1-12.

Good luck Crouch bro,with whatever you decide,those two you already have there look pretty good.:ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Thanks bro, good luck to you and everyone else too. I have been a bit tardy with prices this time, I didn't know some other bookies were offering the same market with better odds, but anyway: Qld 1-12 @ 3.10 (I think 3.15 is available but it didn't seen worth a deposit) Total Match Points 31-40 @ 3.00 (This is with TAB, but Sportingbet are offering 3.25. It wasn't up when I placed bet with TAB though) Brent Tate Last Try @ 15.00 (I think Tate has the chance to capitalise off a Justin Hodges offload and he's got a nose for origin tries). I might add one or two bets, but they will just be small bets. I actually made 31-40pts my main bet with Qld 1-12 my secondary bet.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I really like the total points of 31 - 40 also and have bet on that option accordingly.Any thoughts on a half time margin Crouch?? I'm thinking 1 - 6 to Queensland,any thoughts? I may throw in the draw ht/ft option as cover,but 1-6 vfor the maroons looks about right to me.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I actually don't have any strong thoughts on the HT margin mate, but I imagine either team 1-6 would most likely be a winner. Qld 1-6 on Centrebet is paying $3.85, but Qld 1-8 is $3.25 on Sportingbet, and I'd probably say that the latter is the area I'd lean as I can see the 8pt margin possibility strong enough to sacrifice the lower odds. As mentioned earlier I fancy Inglis for first try and have gone ahead with that at odds of $11 (15% bonus if it wins due to Sportingbet's promotion). Also had a small bet too on first play being a Qld penalty goal, as Origin is a great canditate for taking the early 2pts.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I've taken 1-6 Queensland,with a saver on the draw and also have Inglis for first try,probaly from a bomb with Inglis soaring above the pack.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I should also say that for me,Rep matches are not major bets,it's hard to call with the best players on the field,whether Origin or Internationals,but I do really like 1-12 on the Maroons,with a fair few excitement bets thrown in for good measure.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Yeah, I always love the excitement bets (too often at the expense of solid plays). I'm liking the set I have tonight, particularly good feeling about Inglis, what with playing on the left where Lockyer and Hunt like to play. Gl tonight all.

[pete]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd)

Yeah, I always love the excitement bets (too often at the expense of solid plays). I'm liking the set I have tonight, particularly good feeling about Inglis, what with playing on the left where Lockyer and Hunt like to play. Gl tonight all.

I'm having a Draw/Queensland @$13 and Draw/NSW @$17 for a bit of excitment.

[-Loki-]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Like the under 36.5 in this match as they typically play low scorers in these games.

[blackcrow]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) NSW win by 1-12 margin @ 3.65 Traditionally these games are hard fought and very close encounters and tonight should be no different. When looking at the respective lineups, overall you would say that NSW has the edge. Starting with the backline: from fullback, centres and the wings, on form, NSW has the edge there. While the number 6 and 7 it can be argued that Qld have the edge and the experience, there is alot to like about Mullen. In the forwards the NSW side has a distinctive edge. Each of the players selected are in very good form and will look to lead the charge from the first minute, especially the first hit up which is usually one of the highlights of the game. On the other hand, the Qld pack it seems has been based on reputation, and even though there is the belief that they always rise to the occasion, i'll always take form ahead of reputation. Also the bench sees the NSW with another edge. Some of the qld selections leave question marks whether the selectors have parted with their labradors, while the NSW bench is quite good especially the form around Gidley. When all is said and done, NSW looks to have the edge here. The queenslanders will have the crowd behind them (and boy do they hate their southern counterparts) and if NSW can neutralise their opponents halves combinations, i see the forwards and their bench leading them to victory. C'mon the BLUES!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dingotech]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) I'm a blues man guys so tonight I will be backing them. In saying that QLD looks to have a distinctive edge in class and combinations and they really should win the match at home. So my bets tonight will just be for fun - 1 Unit on NSW 1-12 0.25 Unit on Minichello 1st Try Scorer 0.25 Unit on Mason 1st Try Scorer 0.25 Unit on Kurt Kidley Last Try Scorer It's origin so I don't give a stuff if nothing gets up, it's all about the game! :nana Have fun everybody!

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) Good Luck BlackCrow and Dingotech. Dingotech bro,you are bang on the money,It's Origin,the Game is far more important than the bet. Lets just hope for a good game,i'm fairly positive about being entertained regardless of the result,Enjoy the game guys.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd)

;800902']Like the under 36.5 in this match as they typically play low scorers in these games.

You should be about correct with that bro.:hope

[Punto Banco]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) So its Half time boys and wat a half... I put a little on NSW @ 2.50 when it was 6-6 just before Coopers try (I think) anyways Blues now @ 1.40 4 the win and - 8.5 on the handicap for 2... I think I'm just gona stick with my guns @ this point with Queensland just 2 often putting something on the the 2nd however NSW forwards really just doing it consistently pushing forward and while thurston and Lockyer are a different level of class to the blues halves they are doing not to bad enough to take advantage position... QLD had tries disalowed blah, blah, blah... none of that matters now all that matters is will NSW get cut up by Thurston as the game moves on and people get tired... answer: perhaps however NSW backs doing well and the addition of Kurt Gidley will do it for them... not the prettiest NSW team ever but getting it done and missed chances by QLD does not mean they will come in the 2nd IMO there chance has come and gone... not to say they havnt got a chance but I heavily favour NSW 2 finish them off nice in the 2nd (they have done it plenty of times before @ Suncorp especially in game 1)... Good game ey boys... :ok

[Punto Banco]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) put a kind of saver on over 7.5 tries which I believe will happen anyways but got it @ 1.90 assuming NSW can score at some point I should be safe...

[D3Z1R3]

Re: NRL Rugby - State of Origin: QLD vs NSW (May 23rd) didnt take too much in this game.. my mate has a strategy with the origin.. being influenced by the media.. sounds silly but his points do make sense and he made alot of money last year.. picking 3/3.. i have taken $30 on Manly -11.5/QLD @3.00 $20 on manly -11.5/qld 1-12 @6.00 anyways if qld do win he is 4/4... which isnt that easy when u consider how close the origin is