AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

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Friday 13 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Collingwood v Richmond (10:40 BST)	1.74		2.38	100%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Handicap ResultFirst Quarter Result
Saturday 14 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Carlton v Essendon (05:10 BST)	3.10		1.47	101%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap Result
Port Adelaide v Adelaide (06:10 BST)	1.98		2.05	100%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap Result
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs (10:10 BST)	2.05		1.94	101%	Related markets...Match Result
Fremantle v West Coast (10:40 BST)	2.12		1.90	100%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap Result
Sunday 15 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Sydney v Brisbane (04:10 BST)	1.47		3.15	100%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap Result
Melbourne v Geelong (05:10 BST)	3.40		1.39	102%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap Result
Kangaroos v Hawthorn (08:10 BST)	2.44		1.68	101%	Related markets...Match ResultHandicap Result

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) You've posted the stats from last week Ads.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Overall Table
#	Team	P	W	L	D	For	Agt	%	Pts
1	Brisbane	2	2	0	0	171	94	181.9	8
2	Essendon	2	2	0	0	227	186	122	8
3	Port Adelaide	2	2	0	0	243	209	116.3	8
4	West Coast	2	2	0	0	161	148	108.8	8
5	Geelong	2	1	1	0	255	197	129.4	4
6	Sydney	2	1	1	0	161	146	110.3	4
7	Adelaide	2	1	1	0	184	177	104	4
8	Hawthorn	2	1	1	0	160	163	98.16	4
9	Collingwood	2	1	1	0	157	166	94.58	4
10	W.Bulldogs	2	1	1	0	185	203	91.13	4
11	St Kilda	2	1	1	0	143	164	87.2	4
12	Carlton	2	1	1	0	199	260	76.54	4
13	Kangaroos	2	0	2	0	183	204	89.71	0
14	Fremantle	2	0	2	0	217	243	89.3	0
15	Richmond	2	0	2	0	170	203	83.74	0
16	Melbourne	2	0	2	0	156	209	74.64	0

Match Totals
		Quarters				Halves
#	Team	W	L	D	WR%	W	L	D	WR%
1	Brisbane	7	1	0	87.5	3	1	0	75
2	Essendon	6	2	0	75	3	1	0	75
3	Geelong	6	2	0	75	3	1	0	75
4	Port Adelaide	5	3	0	62.5	3	1	0	75
5	West Coast	5	3	0	62.5	2	2	0	50
6	Kangaroos	5	3	0	62.5	1	3	0	25
7	Sydney	4	4	0	50	3	1	0	75
8	Melbourne	4	4	0	50	0	4	0	0
9	Adelaide	3	5	0	37.5	2	2	0	50
10	Hawthorn	3	5	0	37.5	3	1	0	75
11	W.Bulldogs	3	5	0	37.5	1	3	0	25
12	Carlton	3	5	0	37.5	1	3	0	25
13	Fremantle	3	5	0	37.5	2	2	0	50
14	Richmond	3	5	0	37.5	1	3	0	25
15	Collingwood	2	6	0	25	2	2	0	50
16	St Kilda	2	6	0	25	2	2	0	50

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Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Quarter Averages
		For				Against
#	Team	¼	½	¾	FT	¼	½	¾	FT
1	Brisbane	16.5	28	18.5	22.5	10.5	7	12.5	17
2	Essendon	31.5	20.5	36	25.5	18.5	21.5	28	25
3	Port Adelaide	20.5	30.5	48.5	22	36	21	25.5	22
4	West Coast	28	27	13.5	12	24.5	14.5	18.5	16.5
5	Geelong	31.5	28	34.5	33.5	24.5	30	20	24
6	Sydney	23	11	23	23.5	21.5	25.5	17.5	8.5
7	Adelaide	25.5	23	27.5	16	28	13.5	19	28
8	Hawthorn	11	20.5	27	21.5	23	15.5	21	22
9	Collingwood	20	23.5	9.5	25.5	21	29	17	16
10	W.Bulldogs	27	25.5	17	23	31	23.5	24	23
11	St Kilda	17	18.5	24.5	11.5	21.5	22.5	15	23
12	Carlton	27.5	14	22.5	35.5	31	35	40	24
13	Kangaroos	22.5	28.5	18.5	22	16	31.5	19.5	35
14	Fremantle	32	20.5	32	24	27	20.5	52	22
15	Richmond	19.5	28.5	26	11	29.5	15	27.5	29.5
16	Melbourne	28	10	17.5	22.5	17.5	32	39	16

Scoring Statistics
		Avg Score		Avg Margin		Total Score		Round Total
#	Team	For	Agt	Win	Lose	High	Low	High	Low
1	Brisbane	85.5	47	38.5	0	102	69	0	0
2	Essendon	113.5	93	20.5	0	122	105	0	0
3	Port Adelaide	121.5	104.5	17	0	122	121	1	0
4	West Coast	80.5	74	6.5	0	87	74	0	0
5	Geelong	127.5	98.5	78	20	162	93	1	0
6	Sydney	80.5	73	16	1	88	73	0	0
7	Adelaide	92	88.5	38	31	110	74	0	0
8	Hawthorn	80	81.5	22	25	116	44	0	1
9	Collingwood	78.5	83	3	12	82	75	0	0
10	W.Bulldogs	92.5	101.5	20	38	113	72	0	0
11	St Kilda	71.5	82	31	52	93	50	0	1
12	Carlton	99.5	130	17	78	115	84	0	0
13	Kangaroos	91.5	102	0	10.5	104	79	0	0
14	Fremantle	108.5	121.5	0	13	112	105	0	0
15	Richmond	85	101.5	0	16.5	98	72	0	0
16	Melbourne	78	104.5	0	26.5	94	62	0	0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Margin Breakdown - Basic
		U 15.5		O 15.5		U 39.5		O 39.5
#	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Brisbane	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	0
2	Essendon	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0
3	Port Adelaide	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0
4	West Coast	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
5	Geelong	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
6	Sydney	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0
7	Adelaide	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
8	Hawthorn	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
9	Collingwood	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0
10	W.Bulldogs	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
11	St Kilda	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
12	Carlton	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
13	Kangaroos	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	0
14	Fremantle	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	0
15	Richmond	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
16	Melbourne	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0

Margin Breakdown - Detailed
		1-19 pts		20-39 pts		40-59 pts		60+ pts
#	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	Brisbane	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0
2	Essendon	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
3	Port Adelaide	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	West Coast	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Geelong	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
6	Sydney	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Adelaide	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8	Hawthorn	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
9	Collingwood	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	W.Bulldogs	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
11	St Kilda	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0
12	Carlton	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
13	Kangaroos	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Fremantle	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Richmond	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Melbourne	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

You've posted the stats from last week Ads.

Argh. Thanks Crouch, i forgot to run the macro for this weeks results. Should now be updated :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Argh. Thanks Crouch' date=' i forgot to run the macro for this weeks results. Should now be updated :ok[/quote'] I couldn't have the Lions sitting on just 4pts now could I? :tongue2 Great work as always, hopefully some good winners this week :hope

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Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Been a very tough start to the year so far and it doesnt look like getting easier this week with some epic matches awaiting us. Round 3 is being built up as rivalry round by the AFL where the great rivals meet head to head so its always a great weekend of footy for these rounds. Carlton vs Essendon always a big match no matter what the table positions are. Adelaide vs Port and West Coast Fremantle, well it doesnt get much bigger than this. Crouch, i rememeber you saying a while ago now that when the rivals play in big games like this, you look at betting on markets such as the winning margin of either team to be under 15.5 as they often turn out to be close matches. Is this something you'll be looking at this weekend and if so, do you have any history?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Crouch, i rememeber you saying a while ago now that when the rivals play in big games like this, you look at betting on markets such as the winning margin of either team to be under 15.5 as they often turn out to be close matches. Is this something you'll be looking at this weekend and if so, do you have any history?

Absolutely something I'm looking at this weekend, the main problem for me is the manner in which I approach it. This is what I said in last week's thread: Anyway, the past 4 rivalry rounds (I consider a rivalry round any round where both the WA and SA teams face each other) have seen 15/32 games end with the Under 15.5 tri bet selection a winner. That's just under 50% probability, but the odds are always 3.00+! My theory behind this is that the SA/WA teams are really motivated against each other (applies to some of the other rivalries played that round too), and the remaining teams are generally evenly matched in skill as the superior teams are matched against each other. At least that is my rationale behind it. To the best of my (limited) AFL Knowledge, the rivalry round as I define it has only been around for a couple of years. Below are notes that I comprised, though ignore the staking thing as that's just me contemplating the use of doubles/trebles and various staking ideas etc.

conv_279.doc

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) I never bet against my own team.... but I'd probably look at Freemantle this week. They had the better of us last year, and will look to bounce back on two defeats.. while West Coast will be tired and be rushing in Cox who is match unfit against a very in form sandilands.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Cox will hardly be rushed in after 2 weeks of being very close to playing. Freo still have a decent sized injury list...Odds are about right I think. Essendon will pump Carlton...I'll be on them minus just about anything... Why are the Doggies favs again this week? Despite last week's thumping, the Saints midfield are much more defensive minded this season, and one thing (about the only thing!) the Dogs can't handle is midfield pressure...which certainly showed on the weekend. St. Kilda allowed Melbourne just 33 I50's in week one (can't find the numbers for last week just atm)...but another Adelaide-type strangling could well be in order. Again, too, should be another low scorer. Harris back to take Gehrig...Hargrave always does well on Riewoldt (assuming he's back). Will be looking forward to the total. Like Brisbane to keep it close. Playing very defensive, but very good footy...Sydney still not up to spreed...could be close. + the points...(oh, and the under for sure!!) Geelong easily too!...-20ish. But...it's all a week away yet. ;)

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Cox has only played a couple 'practice' matches this year. He didn't play in the NAB cup against Sandilands and has missed the first two matches. Perhaps rushed was a bad word, but he is certainly underdone. With Hansen also a possibility of returning, we'll have another underdone player. Remember, this is a derby... hard, physical and tiring matches. I'm not saying this a reason we'll lose, and on the contrary I believe we need cox. Without him Seaby will get smashed. Cox is a vital player to our team but chances are he wont be at his best, especially if he has a niggling quadricep injury... and lets face it, they've been very elusive about this injury.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Oscar, I've got another very interesting set of stats on Derdy's which I'll release later in the week once those markets are posted. I think I'll be on bulldogs this week Taza. I'm aware Saints know how to handle them at the dome but I feel Saints are still somewhat underdone. No Maguire, no Hudgton, Riewoldt if plays you'd gotta expect will be underdone, I heard Ball is no cert. They got away with a totally awful Melb in wk-1. Bulldogs were disadvantaged for team balance both times last year and came in karmically suspect both times IMO. Firstly after they were sat on their bums by Adel after a 4-0 start, then second time off the glorious win over Adel. Hamill played both times. Harris back and you'd expect the reverse of any such let down factors here and surely Eade, with the squad he can field, will have a good game plan in mind. That's how I'm seeing it, anyway. Pav and Tarrant were good but they badly miss Farmer IMO. Seems when he fires Freo fire. Like the prices and both Essendon and Geelong. Geelong v Melb is often a succor bet situation but I think cats are building to something, so they shouldn't be put off. Bris are nearly worth a look at the price and I like the way the Kangaroos price is shaping. Form against Melb form is being grossly overated and the most attractive thing to me is pitting Kangas positive game style againt Hawthorn's who always look like they can't help themselves but fall back into that negative possesion style at some point. Listening to Clarkson last night it feels like he's still happy for them to play like that, at least some of the time. * I'll just add - Hawthorn do prefer MCG.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

13 Apr 2007 19:40
COLLINGWOOD	1.65
RICHMOND	2.20
14 Apr 2007 14:10
CARLTON	2.80
ESSENDON	1.42
14 Apr 2007 15:10
PORT ADELAIDE	1.90
ADELAIDE	1.87
14 Apr 2007 19:10
ST KILDA	1.93
WESTERN B'DOGS	1.85
14 Apr 2007 19:40
FREMANTLE	2.00
WEST COAST	1.80
15 Apr 2007 13:10
SYDNEY	1.42
BRISBANE	2.80
15 Apr 2007 14:10
MELBOURNE	2.90
GEELONG	1.40
15 Apr 2007 17:10
KANGAROOS	2.25
HAWTHORN	1.63

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Being a Collingwood supporter I know only too well that Richmond always give us trouble. In fact, Richmond have won 3 of the last 4 times we have played them, and the Tigers are great value at $2-20 against the Pies who are coming off a tough road trip to Perth where they had a hard game against the Eagles. The Kangaroos also represent value at $2-25 considering they have beaten Hawthorn in 5 of their last 6 meetings. St Kilda at $1-93 against the Bulldogs isn't too bad either with Ball and Reiwoldt most likely to play this week. The Saints have beaten the Doggies in 5 of their last 6 meetings. Bulldogs defence will have trouble containing the Saint's forwards, especially if Reiwoldt plays. He may be underdone,but he is still capable of good football. Also like the Dockers at $2-00 against the Eagles. Freo won bothe encounters last year, and they have scored over 100 points both games so far this season. They have no fear of the Eagles and I think you will find the Dockers intensity steps up next week in the Derby. These 4 games at some form of margin betting could likely make a profit.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) The money's starting to come for Geelong.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Conversion Stats after Round 2

	COLLINGWOOD	RICHMOND
Conversion	54%	65%
Disposals Per Goal	27	24
Disposals Per Score	15	15
	CARLTON	ESSENDON
Conversion	42%	67%
Disposals Per Goal	23	19
Disposals Per Score	10	13
	PORT ADELAIDE	ADELAIDE
Conversion	57%	48%
Disposals Per Goal	19	28
Disposals Per Score	11	13
	ST KILDA	WESTERN B'DOGS
Conversion	47%	62%
Disposals Per Goal	31	28
Disposals Per Score	15	17
	FREMANTLE	WEST COAST
Conversion	64%	50%
Disposals Per Goal	21	32
Disposals Per Score	13	16
	SYDNEY	BRISBANE
Conversion	50%	47%
Disposals Per Goal	28	29
Disposals Per Score	14	14
	MELBOURNE	GEELONG
Conversion	56%	53%
Disposals Per Goal	27	21
Disposals Per Score	15	11
	KANGAROOS	HAWTHORN
Conversion	43%	51%
Disposals Per Goal	25	30
Disposals Per Score	11	16

Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong and the Kangaroos have the edge on their opponents this week as far as goals per possession go. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Western Bulldogs also have a much better conversion rate than their opponents. These figures will take 4 or 5 weeks to sort themselves out, but over the course of a season will be a good guide as to who is the more efficient team in a match.

[Ashtee]

Re: 'Ramsgate factor' In addition to the 'Ramsgate factor' as highlighted by Oscar and his 3-way bets. Here's the lowdown; Adel v Port last 14 (the final not counted): High Scoring Quarter 1st 4 2nd 6 3rd 3 4th 1 High Scoring Half 1st 11 2nd 3 These figures are well out of whack with the norm but make enough sense considering the extra intensity of the these games. Are the players spending early? However the last four have been evenly split between the two halfs. Are the showdowns not taken quite as seriously lately, or is it just a glitch in the trend, or is the whole thing just to do with chance occurance anyway? Looking at the game on Saturday, maybe it's stifled early and opens up in the second half? Shut down games don't necessarily mean they open up late though. Often the best scoring is done in the first half. 28-deg forecast so maybe the heat slows it a little, later on. Bet365 are yet to post their markets but are likely to offer 1.90 first half and 1.80 second but have a tie option also. I've elected to have a stab at the 2nd quarter, Portlandbet @ 3.90. Sportsbet Australia have this option favourite at just 3.20. Centrebet and Eskander are yet to post but I doubt very much the 3.90 will be topped. Looking at Ads stats, both Adel and Port matches thus far this season are low scoring in the 2nd. Adel games last year were fairly evenly spread across the four qtrs but Port games had just two high 2nd qtrs. The intersting thing is one of those was a showdown and 2nd qtr ranked second in the other showdown - same occurance in 2005 - this despite the last four being split across the two halfs. Perth Derby's - last 14 The Perth Derby looks different and not sure what to make of it except that I actually don't trust the last quarter this week - for some reason. High Scoring Quarter 1st 2.5 2nd 2 3rd 2 4th 7.5 Interstingly, last season both teams had just 9 of 51 (17.6%) high last qtrs. Last qtr has been high on 0.5 occasions from the last four. It ranked fourth, fourth and second in the other three. Ash.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Some interesting stuff Ash. The chance occurance thing is the key component that intrigues me, but generally speaking I'm happy to follow trends for rivalry rounds, starting tomorrow. This from 3 of the past 4 meetings between these two teams.

	Collingwood	Richmond
Scores	0-2-2, 1-2-8, 3-4-22, 6-9-45	4-5-29, 9-9-63, 11-12-78, 13-14-92

	Collingwood	Richmond
Scores	4-1-25, 6-5-41, 7-8-50, 8-10-58	2-1-13, 4-4-28, 5-10-40, 13-15-93

	Collingwood	Richmond
Scores	1-2-8, 3-3-21, 5-6-36, 8-9-57	2-5-17, 6-7-43, 11-9-75, 14-13-97

As such, my bet is the Pick the score double: Collingwood 0-60/Richmond 91-105 @ 38 TAB (1/10) Probably doomed to failure but at these kinds of odds I don't need to find too much of a reason to have a little go.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) No failure in taking odds about something and not being scared to back a loser, Oscar. Same with my 3.90 on this being more than just chance occurance. It's all about price versus probability. :ok :hope

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Predicted Scores

Collingwood 95 Richmond 91 Carlton 85 Essendon 102 Port Adelaide 90 Adelaide 89 St.Kilda 83 Western Bulldogs 100 Fremantle 85 West Coast 88

Good luck trying to make a dollar this weekend. It certainly looks no easy task. Tonight’s game is a mystery. Both are below strength with Simmonds well short of a gallop for the Tigers, if he even plays. Collingwood’s preparation isn’t the best and playing 3 first gamers is a worry.

Essendon look the goods against Carlton, but I can’t get their clash 8 weeks ago out of my head. They are both fielding almost identical line-ups and surely Carlton can be forgiven for one poor performance. Although with a full list getting thrashed by 13 goals against an average team is a worry. When was the last time they got close to Geelong?

The Adelaide and Perth rivalries are must watch games and are hard to pick. It is interesting to note that Port have not scored 100+ against the Crows in 11 attempts although they have still won their fair share of games. The Perth game is up for grabs although I was more impressed with the Dockers than the Eagles last week.

The Saints have a good recent record against the Dogs, but with the hardness of Ball still missing, the Dogs should run them ragged and hold the Saints comfortably.

Suggested Bet

ESSENDON/WESTERN BULLDOGS Double.

Good luck everyone. We are going to need it this weekend.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Collingwood vs Richmond The start of rivalry round and its a round which looks very tough to pick on paper. So many evenly matched teams playing off and tonight is no exception. The one thing that stands out to me tonight is Richmonds recent form against Collingwood head to head, Richmond have won 3 of the past 4 meetings by 47 pts, 35 pts & 40 pts while their only loss to Collingwood was a 5 point thriller last year when Collingwood snatched it in the dying moments. Richmonds main issue at the moment is the lack of big men who can play ruck, their two main ruckman Troy Simmonds & Trent Knobel are both out and they must rely on youngster Adam Pattison to carry most of the load, while new recruit Graham Polak has been doing some ruck work also. Collingwood have a few players missing themselves, captain Nathan Buckley is still out with an injury and their forward line without Tarrant & Rusling will suffer this year. They have 3 new players making their debut tonight so will be interesting to see how they go together. Players to look out for in this match are Kane Johnson & Joel Bowden who has averaged 26 disposals in their past 3 games vs the Pies, while Ben Johnson has averaged 25 touches vs Richmond in the past 3 head to heads. The prediction suggests that Collingwood will win, but its based on only two weeks worth of results. Collingwood beat wooden spoon favourites the Kangaroos in round 1 with 1 minute remaining afetr a poor decision, while Richmond last week lost to a team who has contested the past 2 grand finals. I think Richmond will win this game in what will be an epic, Under 39.5 points could be a way to find some decent value. Computer Generated Prediction:

Collingwood	27	41	61	91
Richmond	18	52	72	83

Suggested Bet: Richmond Under 39.5 at $2.65 - (4/10)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) The Rivalry begins... Pies v Tigers Either Team Under 15.5 @ 3.10 TAB 4/10

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Was looking at an 'under' tonight, but low total and shitty odds...berst left alone I think. Will definately be on Brisbane +15.5...and likely the under there (obviously depending on what it is!) Hopefully some big Freo scoring games will over-rate the total there, will be looking at an under for sure. Actually gone off Essendon a bit. Not sure how to take Freo last week...The Bombers have been beaten badly in the middle in both games, but very efficient (straight!) conversion up forward has done the trick... ...I guess you can read it one of two ways... ...if they get plenty of the ball they might score a million!!...or (and the way I'm leaning), they just aren't very good in the middle and history/law of averages/me suggests that kicking goals at a 66% clip is very unlikely to continue. But, purely for match-ups you'd think they'd win. Fletcher/Michael to keep Fev quiet, not sure who stops Lloyd, assuming Waite goes to Lucas... The meeting last season (bjv, I think it was you?)...nowhere near the same personel on field! No Lloyd, Hird...FLETCHER...strangely enough, Fev kicks 5, and it's a tie. Can't see it this time. Essendon win, but something telling me not by much. Geelong over 39.5 could be value at ~3.00. Melbourne defense has been god-awful so far, allowing 28 and 31 shots to 2 teams that don't score all that well!...Geelong now just about have the most potent line-up in the league, with Mooney, N. Ablett playing well, Hawkins will keep improving, G. Ablett and Chapman always dangerous... ...no way Melbourne match up and what is a very mobile, yet still able to take strong contested marks, forwardline of Geelong. No Robertson or Nietz up the other end, and I don't see how they keep even close. Geelong midfield smashed Carlton (no surprise) but out-played the Dogs too...Melbourne had 33 I'50 in week 1, and not a whole lot more last week! If Hawthron can beat them by 22, Geelong should win by 122. Also fancy the Kangaroos +10.5...As Ash said earlier, form against Melbourne is over-rated. They won't ever beat teams by big margins given that they chip the ball and slow it down with a lead, and the 'Roos never give up, so a 'backdoor' is always a chance even if the game isn't so close. Kangas won 5 of last 6 head-to-heads, the one win was in Tassie where the Hawks have a massive advantage over most sides... ...the one little doubt I do have is that in the first meeting last year, Kangas won by 22 at the Dome, Thompson kicked 8 against everyone's favourite project full back, Zac Dawson!... ...obviously Kangas a little short handed up forward now (although Edwards looked promising last week), and Hawthorn a much better outfit with Jacobs back in...and possibly Bateman this week? Not 100% sure, wil see how things look Sunday! Good luck this week, guys.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Collingwood vs Richmond Computer Generated Prediction:

Collingwood	27	41	61	91
Richmond	18	52	72	83

Suggested Bet: Richmond Under 39.5 at $2.65 - (4/10)

Should have listened to your computer Ads :lol Never underestimate the Magpies when they appear down and out, we have just a little more heart than Richmond. Seriously tho, didn't see much of the game as i had to go to Melbourne, and only listened to it on radio. At half time the Tigers were home from all accounts on the radio, and then all of a sudden in the second half the second tier players for Collingwood stood up to be counted and ground out a very good win. The 3 new kids were very serviceable... Dick was hard around the packs and kicked a couple, and Cox was in and out all night, while the Possum Toovey kicked 3 goals. Scott Pendlebury and Dale Thomas look like they have stepped up as second year players, rather than stagnate. Has anyone listened to the radio commentary on 105.1 I think it was...Brian Taylor and James Brayshaw were exciting, funny and made it quite enjoyable to listen to, even when Tiges were in front. GO THE MIGHTY MAGPIES !!!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Never underestimate the Magpies when they appear down and out' date=' [b']we have just a little more heart than Richmond. GO THE MIGHTY MAGPIES !!!

I disagree BJ :D. Collingwood have a lot more heart than Richmond. So much so that I'm wondering what sort of messages Wallace was giving. There was a bit of talk about the Richmond coaches bemused that Coll weren't tiring. Richmond could do with geting their hands dirty no matter what their up against?

[ads25]

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Some very tempting odds about for the Ess/Carlton over...1.60 over 185.5 on Betfair... ...Bit concerned about the weather tho...showers, fresh winds and a chance of thunderstorms! I reckon the chances are pretty slim myself, but might wait until game time to make a real decision on this one. No idea in Adelaide!!...Hoping the Crows get up for my tipping, and Bock has a big one for my Super Coach team! :D PS...Just for the record, Essendon have Fletcher, Hird, Lloyd, McPhee, Stanton, Lovett-Murray, and obviously Michael, Davey and Jetta in the team that weren't last time these teams met!!! That's huge!!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Two for me for this upcoming game: Either Team Under 15.5pts @ 3.40 1/10 Total Game Score 206+ @ 2.60 4/10

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Ended up getting 1.66 for the over at Betfair...Was happy with thta. Very nice hit for you, Crouch! 2 easy winners...I should have had the nads to take the over 206 @ 2.70 early on...was never really in doubt. Fav was great (in my Super Coach team lol!), and Michael showed a real lack of pace might hurt him badly. Oh, and Essendon kicking a heap of points...hmmm...who would have ever guessed ;) Waiting to see what total Centrebet are going to offer for the Western Derby... If it's not upto scratch... Eagles v. Freo under 185.5 (1.68 @ BF) 8 of the last 9 meetings have gone under this number, always high pressure games, and very often evening games which I don't think helps scoring at all. The Ealges have allowed 85+ points just once in their last 10!...av'ing just 77 ppg, and 69 in their last 5. Their problem has been up forward, scoring 87+ just twice in thier last 8...against Richmond and the Dogs, both terrible defensive teams, and both time WC were big favs. Freo have a perceived weakness down back this season, allowing two big scores, but 38.15 against them has been some very good kicking for goal, and is unlikely to happen tonight, esp. from a below av. WC forward line. WC are FAR better defensively than either Ess or Port (as seen today!)... ...can't see this one being too much of a shootout.