DP's soccer trading; laying the draw.

[archaeus]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw.

I have also traded the draw at half time when the odds are significantly lower and the match was expected to be 'overs'. This has been profitable for the few trades I have tried it.

That's exactely what i was thinking about, but waiting untill 30-35th minute, not HT. Eric i see most of your lay draws are arround 3.45-3.50 odds mark. Usually, in most of the let's say balanced games the odds for draw drop to about 2.5-2.6 at the 35th minute mark. Have you thought about laying 1 goal or more before kick off, then wait untill 35th minute and then lay the draw? Because if a goal is scored untill then the liability is little enough not to cause you too much of a loss, and the liability that would come on laying the draw would also be smaller than before kick off.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 5 : Aston Villa - Everton, Half-time, score 0-1 Odds at HT 1X2: 10.5 - 3.8 - 1.55 Odds on the draw haven't moved a bit :loon Think i'll just let things ride. Archaeus, I had thought about checking out a variation which is waiting for HT and any match that is a Draw step in at that moment. But not thought about what you suggest, sounds like a valid alternative, but again more suited for some games than others.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 5 : Aston Villa - Everton, 78th minute, score 0-1 pretty lively second half, so thought best to cover my arse a bit: Aston Villa -8 Everton +12 Draw +10 ---------------- 1 goal -13 happy to let that ride out.

[archaeus]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. clever decision, villa equalised

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 5 : Aston Villa - Everton, 83th minute, score 1-1 Bast... :@ 1X2 odds move to 9.0 - 1.3 - 7.2 and moving fast, very fast.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 5 : Aston Villa - Everton, summary, final score 1-1 Didn't exactly go according to plan :lol , after the goal the odds didn't move enough to secure a profit. I'm considering this a failed trade even if the end result would have been profit. So this situation would make a case for a strategy where you wait until the Draw odds have dropped sufficiently, and if an early goal gets scored it's a no-trade. I'm quite happy to have paid a few points to limit my liability Aston Villa as a come back, however unlikely it seems at HT did turn out to be a real possibility. You never know do you. Result -3 Bank at 1015

[fenlandtiger]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Great to see a thread on in-running play! Good luck.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. thanks fenlandtiger, There's 2 games tonight, PSV - Liverpool 1X2: 3.8 - 3.1 - 2.38 U/O: 1.52 - 2.9 1 goal: 1.16 Difficult to call, slight away favourite but close, Under high favourite. AC Milan - Bayern Munich 1X2: 2.06 - 3.15 - 4.9 U/O: 1.61 - 2.6 1 goal: 1.13 Difficult to call, slight home favourite but close, Under high favourite. In both case there is a high expectation of the match to end Under, so that would indicate a good chance for a 0-0. On the other hand this is a knock-out competition, albeit including a return leg, and i believe teams are more focussed on simply winning rather than getting a lot of goals in. In other words in a regular competition a 0-0 is a draw and as such a reasonable result, in a knock-out competition however it's as good as a loss. Following that reasoning Under is expected but 1 goal as well. I'm going to keep an eye on PSV - Liverpool and write that up as a paper trail only. The fact that the away team is favoured and the experiance from the Villa - Everton game tells me maybe i better just have a look first. I may decide to step in at half-time if it is still 0-0 , depending on the situation at that time. AC Milan - Bayern Munchen i'll go for with a 50% saver on 0-0. Having the home team as favourite is good enough for me to put some money on. Paper trail: PSV - Liverpool, 20:45cet Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 100 @ 1.16 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 48 @ 3.1 Opening position: PSV +48 Liverpool +48 Draw -100 ------------------------ no goals +100 1 goal or more -16 Trade 6: AC Milan - Bayern Munchen, 20:45cet Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.13 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 45 @ 3.2 Opening position: AC Milan +48 Munchen +48 Draw -100 ------------------------ no goals +50 1 goal or more -6.5

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Paper trail: PSV - Liverpool, 30th minute, 0-1 Goal by Liverpool and again odds don't move enough to secure profit all around, 1X2: 15.5 - 4.2 - 1.43 Would have been looking at this position: PSV -28 Liverpool +16 Draw +16 ----------------- 1 goal -16

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 6: AC Milan - Bayern Munchen, 40th minute, 1-0 Goal by AC Milan, odds move to: 1X2: 1.32 - 20.0 - 4.7 Position: AC Milan +18 Bayern Munchen +6.5 Draw +6.5 ---------------------- 1 goal -6.5 So i may lay AC Milan later on to secure a profit all around but i like the way the match is going so going to let it ride for a while. Actually i realise i made a mistake :$ I left the cover bet on un-matched and now i realise it never got matched, more profit for me :lol but i'll write it up as if it was matched.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Paper trail: PSV - Liverpool, 50th minute, 0-2 Another goal by Liverpool, so would have let things ride for break even. Just to note it's the full cover of 0-0 that appears to be too expensive, if i had placed only half a cover bet, so 8 points not 16 i could have made a profit all around of about 5 points.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 6: AC Milan - Bayern Munchen, 55th minute, 1-0 Layed AC Milan 5 @ 1.25 so there's some profit all around :ok Position: AC Milan +16 Bayern Munchen +11 Draw +11 ---------------------- 1 goal -6.5

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Paper trail: PSV - Liverpool, summary, 0-3 So would have broken even with a potential loss on a PSV come-back. The full cover bet seems too expensive when a goal is made in the first half, something to keep an eye on. Trade 6: AC Milan - Bayern Munchen, summary, 2-2 Only half on the cover bet and that allowed for profit. Glad i layed Milan at 1.25 for profit all around because as you can see the bloody germans came back for 2-2 final result. So only 5 points profit and not 10. But happy with the way it went. Result +5 Bank at 1020

[aldric]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Nicely done. I completely agree, the 100% cover makes it difficult to achieve a profit. Lets not forget that in both matches tonight the 'right' team scored first. If it was the other way around with the PSV or Bayern scoring it would have been a case of minimising the losses. I figured tonight would be low scoring, what do I know - lol! :)

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Couple of Champions League games tonight, Trade 7: Roma - Manchester United, 20:45 cet 1X2: 2.78 - 3.2 - 3.0 U/O: 1.64 - 2.52 1 goal: 1.13 Here we go again, fairly evenly matched teams with a strong expectation for the match to end Under. On the correct score market there is a slight preference for 1-1 followed by an almost equal price for 0-1, 1-0 and 0-0. A full cover bet would cost 14 points and it's already clear that that is simply too expensive in this situation. So time to try something different; i'm going to lay the draw at the start of the match, only to a liability of 10 points. An early goal should allow me to secure profit all around and then as the match progresses without a goal i'll start putting on the cover bet on "1 goal" . At this point i don't know how fast the price on "1 goal" is going to rise and it is quite possible it rises so fast that i'm wasting my time :loon . Thou hast been warned :lol Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 4.4 @ 3.25 Opening position: Roma +4.4 Man Utd +4.4 Draw -10

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, 20:45 cet 1X2: 1.76 - 3.45 - 6.8 U/O: 1.61 - 2.62 1 goal: 1.12 Another match expected to end Under with an expensive cover bet on 0-0 at 13 points. Here however i'm inclined to have a go as we have a clear home favourite. Will probably have to trade out at a loss if Valencia score first and... well... then so be it :lol I'm quite confident we'll see at least one goal here so only 50% on the cover bet. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.13 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 40 @ 3.5 Opening position Chelsea +40 Valencia +40 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -6.5

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, 31ST minute, 0-1 Goal by Valencia, odds hardly move enough for any profit, going to let things ride for a while. 1X2: 3.7 - 3.2 - 2.35

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 7: Roma - Manchester United, Xth minute, 0-0 Just heard there was a red card for Man Utd so going to wait even longer for a possible cover bet.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 7: Roma - Manchester United, 43th minute, 1-0 How nice of Roma to play along :lol really can't see Man Utd come back with 10 men :\ Looking at this position: Roma +2.4 Man Utd -1.4 Draw 0 1X2: 1.26 - 5.8 - 24

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, half-time, 0-1 Half-time odds 1X2: 4.5 - 3.25 - 2.08 Letting it ride, here's my thinking: 1) Valencia score again, odds move so i can make profit 2) no more goals, at some point odds move so i can trade out break even, ( draw odds need to move to 4.2 ) 3) Chelsea score an equaliser and then one of the two score again, rapidly, should be able to trade for a profit. 4) Chelsea score an equaliser and the match ends 1-1, full loss of draw lay and cover bet, so to avoid this i will be looking to trade out for the least possible loss. Basically anything but a 1-1 , bit risky eh :tongue2

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, 50th minute, 0-1 Don't like the 1-1 max. loss idea so have moved to this position: Chelsea +8.5 Valencia +30 Draw -62 ----------------- 1 goal or more -6.5

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, 52th minute, 1-1 :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin o dear, come one guys, need another one now

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 7: Roma - Manchester United, 61th minute, 1-1 Equaliser :unsure , just going to let it ride.

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, 66th minute, 1-1 Decided to level out at this position: Chelsea +6.5 Valancia +6.5 Draw -52 ------------------ 1 goal or more -6.5

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, 80th minute, 1-1 Leveling out at: Chelsea -30 Valancia -30 Draw -29 ------------------ 1 goal or more -6.5

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 7: Roma - Manchester United, summary, 2-1 Roma scored again so result +2.4 , got lucky i suppose with the Man Utd red card so not much to learn from this one. A full cover bet would have cost 1.4 points so even with luck that would have been too expensive. Roma +2.4 Man Utd -1.4 Draw 0 Result +2.4 Bank 1022

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 8: Chelsea - Valencia, summary, 1-1 OI, i said anything but a 1-1 :@ Again the wrong team scored first and after that it's all a matter of limiting losses. Basically this situation needs an early goal by the favourite or a late goal by either team. This makes a case for simply waiting for the second half to get in. Layed the Draw at the end hoping for a last minute goal :lol , final position was: Chelsea 0 Valencia 0 Draw -31.5 ------------- 1 goal -6.5 Result -38 Bank at 984

[fenlandtiger]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Hard luck there. It can be tough deciding on the best strategy when the game goes against your initial position(s).

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Time to get this show back on.... Trade 9: Deportivo - Sevilla, 21:00 cet 1X2: 2.84 - 3.30 - 2.86 U/O: 1.62 - 2.60 1 goal: 1.12 Cup game and as usual with these expected to go Under, nevertheless i feel the chance for 1 goal quite high as that is simply the nature of Cup games. Only a half cover bet on 0-0. Bet Lay "Total goals - 1 goals or more" 50 @ 1.13 Bet Lay "Match odds - Draw" 43 @ 3.3 Opening position Deportivo +43 Sevilla +43 Draw -100 -------------------- no goals +50 1 goal or more -6.5 :hope

[Datapunter]

Re: DP's soccer trading; laying the draw. Trade 9: Deportivo - Sevilla, 11th & 14th minute, 0-2 :nana 0 - 1 at the 11th minute and just as i was putting my trades on , Sevilla score another one. Think i might let things ride a while.