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AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)


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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Wow. This thread has it all... ...new systems, drunk bookies...the lot!! :D Crisp...I like it! So simple, yet I've certainly never thought to do it...fair to say no-one else here has either. Really good work, and will definately be looking at the pre-game "scores" before next round! I decided to stay right away this week (mainly because I have been too lazy to look up enough info!...)...but with 2 games being decided by less than a kick, 1 played in the worst conditions for years, and two big wins by short favs, I'm not too disappointed at this stage. Ads...the other games (minus Kangas/Coll) have been great! Far better than I expected even. Port/Crows, Ess/Carl were full on, tough games. Sure, the skills were rusty, and there was no denying the effort... ...and I'm even warming to this "no hands in the back" rule!! They can still use the fore-arm, and obviously the body, so I think it's probably a good thing atm. ...although that does remind me of another Walls gem last night!!... During the first quarter in the Ess/Carl game Mal Michael gave away a free kick with hands in the back, and Walls had been saying how Michael may struggle to adjust... ...saw the replay and laughing said, "Although he may have been a bit unlucky with that one!" ...(Basically saying it was a crap decision)... ...Quartermain, "Actually, I think that would have been a free kick even last year." ...Walls, "Yes. I agree" !!! Man, is he a ****ing dud!! Make up your own mind for just ONCE in your life!!! Lifes biggest 'yes' man, is Robert. Good luck today guys!

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Yeah isn't it just wonderful Taza. Ahh ... I'm starting to think TEN is the premier free-to-air broadcaster though. :cryMacavaney obviously hasn't watched a game for five years (I'm not joking) and looks like the station has really lashed out with a $50 budget spent on the support team - Watson, What's his name and what's his name. :puke I do a full player rating system also - serves also in match reports to guage historical team strength through the season. Mine is 1-10 with most rookies getting a 1 for starters while, Judd, Pavlich, Goodes, Brown, Kerr and couple others get 10. Today I like the looks of all three games with a last minute wait on possible plays on Melbourne and West Coast. I'm on Richmond already at 3.16 Ash.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)

Yeah isn't it just wonderful Taza. Ahh ... I'm starting to think TEN is the premier free-to-air broadcaster though. :cryMacavaney obviously hasn't watched a game for five years (I'm not joking) and looks like the station has really lashed out with a $50 budget spent on the support team - Watson, What's his name and what's his name. :puke I do a full player rating system also - serves also in match reports to guage historical team strength through the season. Mine is 1-10 with most rookies getting a 1 for starters while, Judd, Pavlich, Goodes, Brown, Kerr and couple others get 10. Today I like the looks of all three games with a last minute wait on possible plays on Melbourne and West Coast. I'm on Richmond already at 3.16 Ash.
:$ Sorry Ash! Clearly just me then! :lol You're not wrong about old Bruce either...I think is was David Swartz that commented last night that the game (Bris) reminded him of Paul Peos in the hail at Waverly... ...now, granted, I can't specifically remember that game either, but I've seen the 'highlight' 100's of times on opening credits etc. etc... ...Macavaney was like..."I'm still working on that one"...obviously couldn't remember it... ...even tho, somwhat ironically, it was back in the old Ch. 7 days and he was probably there doing it!!! The commentary was weird all night, tho, yeah?...Besides Commetti, who was his usual self (Maxwell belts the ball away...almost like he had a silver hammer...on Friday night! :lol ) ...but the rest seemed almost disinterested. Not sure. I'll put it down to the weather, and maybe the had a leaky box or something...but it's going to get very tired, very quickly if that's the best they can come up with all season. The Tiges hey mate? I might jump on board, just to have some action today... ...I'll be secretly hoping Hawthorn win too. The winner of that game plays down here next weekend, and the GF is a Melbourne member. I want to go away for the weekend to watch a cricket grand final... ...I'm sure you see where I'm coming from ;) (Mind you, if Melbourne win, I could just go on my own and get even drunker! :ok )
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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)

The Tiges hey mate? I might jump on board, just to have some action today... ...I'll be secretly hoping Hawthorn win too. The winner of that game plays down here next weekend, and the GF is a Melbourne member. I want to go away for the weekend to watch a cricket grand final... ...I'm sure you see where I'm coming from ;) (Mind you, if Melbourne win, I could just go on my own and get even drunker! :ok )
No, no, no, mate! Your just a bit confused at the minute. OK, Melbourne win - pressure? No pressure! - well you dump her on Thursday - COLD! Wear the phone call Friday - "I feel like sh!t". She won't even be up to the bit where she's calling you a bastard, by then. Her brother, freind, whoever takes her to the footy Saturday - it'll be good for her. Get it back together Monday no problem + massive make up sex Tuesday - toys, lotions, the lot. :ok This is what we'e all here for mate. Geelong 1.43 v Richmond 3.15

This scenario reminds me of Carlton-Essendon yesterday with a wave of emotion driving Essendon’s price despite the evenness of the squads. Essendon seemed caught complacent from it while Carlton fed off it.

Richmond have been quiet through the press while plenty has been made of Geelong resolving it’s problems and destined for big things, so I can see a little karmic event occurring today.

The two named squads are actually quite even with Geelong having the more established group of proven performers however Richmond have an outstanding crop of newer players who look set to blossom in the new season – Raines, Deledio, Foley, Polo, & Pattison plus a couple others who showed excellent promise last year and throw in Polak to sure up the defence which could allow Bowden to push further forward.

Again much has been made through the press of Geelong’s improved fitness however Richmond is extremely forward also, if not more forward.

A win today would be just Wallace’s style. All in all I still manage to make Geelong at home the 4/5 favourite but no doubt an outstanding price available on the tigers today.
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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Mate, after 7 years, games just don't work anymore...(trust me, I've tried! :D) Basically, if that was the case, she'd know full well that I'd get too drunk to play up , and she'd be at a footy game full of testosterone!!...likely with her sister, who has been known to, er...well, get um, slightly lonely herself at times!! :lol Besides...she owns the wok...I like cooking with that wok!! :D er, go Tiges...

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Early in the 3rd quarter and Geelong over the Tigers by about 50 points. Geelong too fast, too fit, and too clinical and doing it easy. Brad Ottens is actually showing something for the Cats and Gary Ablett sensational...Shades of last year about the Cats and they are looking great early in this game. Being a Magpies fan I will be interested to see how Chris tarrant goes over in Perth...Think he might win more games and have more team success playing with Freo rather than Collingwood.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)

I need my eyes checked. Note to self' date=' 52 beats 45 :lol[/quote']I was going to tell you Crouch but seeing your a Brisbane supporter (Is that right?) I figured you must need to sober up first.:lol Tigers are going real well. The rucks looked the concern on paper and I figure Pattison is there to support Knobel so they go and leave him out!!! That's just for starters of course - cat's look fantastic. My high secong quarter looks a chance though, which would nearly bail me out on the game. I had Ottens earmarked for a Brownlow bet at 500/1, such is reports of how he's travelling, so I popped over to Centrebet during that qtr and got on E/W. I suggest you all do also, mind you I suggested tiges were worth the try today also.
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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) I couldn't back Brad Ottens to win anything to be honest Ash :lol He is going ok tho today...Better defences will keep him pretty quiet...It is more the way the ball is coming in...Anthony Rocca would be playing well with the ball coming in like that, and wouldn't back him to win a raffle. What do people think of the Channel 7 coverage?...I like Dennis Cometti and thought Swartz will get better and is at least someone different...They still seem like tossers or something all their presenters, but likeable. Anyone been to the AFL website lately?...Don;t think i like the changes, but may need to more time to check it out properly.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)

I couldn't back Brad Ottens to win anything to be honest Ash :lol He is going ok tho today...Better defences will keep him pretty quiet...It is more the way the ball is coming in...Anthony Rocca would be playing well with the ball coming in like that, and wouldn't back him to win a raffle.
It's a simple case of I believe he's overs, even prior to today. The guy is fit and has a proper pre season behind him for a change. These are the ones to look out for when splashing a few pre season bets on Brownlow. Sure, he's going with the tide but no one will play like he is today if not in great touch IMO. And I should add Geelong look a chance to be back on track for top-4 again. The clubs up there are most likely to supply the medalist. Ling is the other cat I've backed. I have him shorter than the 151.00 I got (My prices are based on rating every players chance to a market of 100% - a sound method of forming honest assessments IMO).
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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)

I couldn't back Brad Ottens to win anything to be honest Ash :lol He is going ok tho today...Better defences will keep him pretty quiet...It is more the way the ball is coming in...Anthony Rocca would be playing well with the ball coming in like that, and wouldn't back him to win a raffle. What do people think of the Channel 7 coverage?...I like Dennis Cometti and thought Swartz will get better and is at least someone different...They still seem like tossers or something all their presenters, but likeable. Anyone been to the AFL website lately?...Don;t think i like the changes, but may need to more time to check it out properly.
I'm finding the live scores to be a fair bit slower. Last year I found they were really fast and generally everything was pretty easy to find but this weekend the games have been shown as the 3rd quarter when the result was already in
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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) An interstesting weekend of football comes to an end and a great outcome to the ratings system. I wouldn’t have dreamt we’d get a clean sweep, but we were pretty fortunate in a few games, particularly the game in Cairns.

Assessing the matches, the derby in Adelaide was clearly the match of the round. The midfield of Port Adelaide is going to cause teams some headaches throughout the year and when Tredrea returns, will threaten for a finals spot. The Crows looked comfortable and will be a major threat once more.

The Kangaroos predictably dismantled Collingwood and unearthed a few good prospects for the future, but still look a long way from being a finals contender. The Magpies clearly weren’t interested, but the wraps placed on Tarrant’s replacement Sean Rusling look a little misplaced. He did nothing playing on an opponent who in only a VFL standard player.

The Bulldogs had to fight hard to beat the Swans in Canberra, both teams showed great signs and will play finals this season.

The warning signs are already ringing at Essendon. With only 3 best team players out, they were disappointing against a full strength Carlton, but had plenty of opportunities to win. Essendon’s disposal is a real worry, and they only looked good when the speedsters took control in the second half. Carlton’s structure looks sound and are capable of winning this tournament, but with a trip to Tasmania and possibly Perth, it looks unlikely.

Brisbane fought back bravely to beat the Saints in Cairns in driving rain. They looked shot to bits at quarter time, but their experienced players brought them back from the dead to beat the youthful Saints. Too hard to assess anything from this game.

The Cats did as expected against a Tigers team that lacked height. The bigger bodies of Geelong held them in good stead and a final appearance doesn’t look out of the question. The Tigers are an unknown quantity and could easily finish from 6th to 16th.

Melbourne v Hawthorn was clearly the second best match of the round. The Demons ran out of legs in the final quarter and with the injection of their best midfielders, should be one of the teams to beat. The Hawks played well as a whole, but are still prone to form lapses within matches. However, they have players that can turn matches and that makes them dangerous.

The Perth derby was disappointing with Dockers gradually gaining control of the match and not giving the Eagles a sniff. A big year for the Dockers looks assured, but a step in the wrong direction will mean big changes. The Eagles still look strong, but aren’t a great team by any means and will be under the pump all season.

So, the quarter-finals of the NAB Cup look like this:

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane (Telstra Dome, Melbourne)

Hawthorn v Carlton (Launceston)

Geelong v Port Adelaide (Darwin)

Kangaroos v Fremantle (Telstra Dome, Melbourne)

The Bulldogs and Fremantle look the teams to beat.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Was wondering if anyone spotted that, Ashtee... The really quite funny thing is, that I thought the "direction" as such, was actually quite good!... ...I can only assume, but I'm guessing they took offense to the amount of time spent showing the high (top of light tower?) shots of the game. Now, I can see the problem for older people/people with poor vision...and generally people who don't follow the game all that much, because sometimes it was tough to figure out where the ball was, if you didn't know specifically where to look... ...but given the last 2-3-4 years, we've seen coverage gradually get in closer, and closer, to the point where you basically see no movement other than the ball...I thought it brought a more "live" feel to the game. As we've all said here, if anyone was getting sacked, surely the people who spoke were first in line! :D That's a pretty good summary too, Crisp...agree with most of that... ...and yes, I am quite prepared to recant on my Essendon optimism... What was I thinking!??!

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) The quarter-finals of the NAB Cup have served up some lob-sided matches at first glance, but looking at the strength of the some squads, the short prices on offer look unwarranted. The ratings and prices are underlined below.

Western Bulldogs (599) $1.20 v Brisbane (569) $4.50

The Dogs did what they had to last week, but are significantly weakened for this game at Telstra Dome. They have only 2 of their 8 best players in this squad losing Johnson, Griffen and Akermanis due to injury. Brisbane are still missing key forwards Brown and Bradshaw, but have maintained a similar squad to last week. They are coming of a 6 day break and will be leg weary after the conditions they played in last week. This will be no cakewalk for the Bulldogs, but should win a close one at home.

Hawthorn (530) $1.45 v Carlton (436) $2.55

This is the match of the weekend. Both teams are going all out to perform well in this tournament with both impressing last weekend. The Hawks have been weakened losing small defenders Brown and Ladson and have no important players returning with 7 of their best 22 missing. The Blues are still at full strength and have no excuses for not winning this game. The ratings suggests a Carlton win, but the Hawks have a 75% winning strike rate in Launceston.

Geelong (523) $1.82 v Port Adelaide(489) $1.97

This is an even match-up between two teams used to March glory in recent times. The Cats played well last week and have basically the same squad this week. Port Adelaide have 4 of their best 22 missing and were terrific last week. Port Adelaide have a superb record in Darwin and that gives them the edge in this game.

Kangaroos (470) $3.00 v Fremantle (474) $1.38

The Roos have lost ruckman Hale for this game but still have a strong line-up. The Dockers have Parker and Black missing from their best team. A huge incentive for the Dockers is that if they win this game they will host a semi-final at home. Their squad is far superior to the Kangaroos and should win even though they have to travel to Melbourne.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Yeah, Geelong sat on the plane for hours today apparently... ..Weather aside, it's pretty hard to see how Port are 1.95 'dogs in this one. Not entirely sure how torrential rain will affect it, but I'd think Port are a decent bet in this one.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Commetti must be thinking WTF! Cracked me up last night when MaCavaney tried to go big like he does with something like "[brisbane] Just imagine when they get Brown and Bradshaw and", Commetti cuts in, "they'll be no good! This is a group that clicks". :lol Stopped him in his tracks. I thought the dogs didn't show up last night. You could see it in the way guys like Harris and others just were'nt in the mood for taking on the tackler, etc.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Hawthorn v Carlton: luke_hodge.jpg This is a Hawthorn win, no matter which way you look at it. They have injuries, they have suspensions, hell their captain isn't even playing, but anyone who knows australian football, knows they are not going to lose. 1. Their captain, quite possibly the worst in terms of skill, in the whole league. He is no loss. The real leadership comes from their youngsters. Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, that's where the leadership comes from. 2. No defence... no worries. Zac Dawson the skinny fullback who will for a long time be remembered as having been towled up by Anthony Rocca was on David Neitz last week. There was no massacre, there was no Hawthorn loss by 100 points. Why? Midfield. Hodge went to the midfield, and the Hawks dominated. The ball didn't go down to Melbourne's forwards for the rest of the game. I think Hawthorn scored 9 goals to their 1. Carlton are no where near the team that the Hawks are. The Hawks might be missing Trent Croad, but the last time he played, Fevola kicked 8 goals on him. The thing that I disagree with in Burnt tua Krisp's rating system is, the hawks might be missing key players. But their back ups are ten times better than carltons 10th - 18th best players. Just like West Coast Eagles back ups are better than some of Hawthorn's key men. Basically what it doesn't allow is how good Hawthorn's 530 ranking points is, compared to Carlton's 530 points. Either way, I'm recommending a Hawthorn win. Take the line -12.5 ($1.85), Take over 15.5 ($1.95) and possibly multi it in with Justine Henin Harden tonight, and some EPL. Good Luck.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Here is some information regarding the Geelong Cats for tonight's match. http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,21315850-23211,00.html Not the best preparation. Also if you're betting totals or teams under 39.5, http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,21316390-23211,00.html Might even be worth either tam under 15.5. Food for thought.

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) all things being equal, the Hawks Blues match tonight is anything but certain for the Hawks. Its a pre-season match for god sake. And whilst the Hakws got a way with a win last week, they didnt' do themselves any favours in the second half by slackening off - badly. Having said that, the Hawks have turned Launceston into a home away from home where they have had sonme godo regular season wins over hte years (even during times when they have struggled) so this has got to count for something. Hawks should have the edge but this year Carlton are expected to lift and will not be a side to take lightly

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Hawthorn vs Carlton I rate Carlton a good chance here. As far as comparing Carlton with Hawthorn, i think they are both pretty even as far as development goes. They are both very young sides who both appear to be on the up. I didnt see the Hawks game last week, but watched Carlton against Essendon and the Blues played very well. For once they seem to have a bit of run in the midfield as they took the Bombers to the cleaners in the midfield. The inclusion of Gibbs is a big plus and with players like Murphy & Simpson stepping up, Carlton have a good team emerging. Jarrod Waite in defence was very dangerous and o'Hailpin is also another big body up back for them. They also have a decent forward line with Fevola capable of kicking 5+ tonight against a Hawks defence i just dont rate. Will be a good game, but for value i think you cant go past Carlton here. They are both very even and with Hawthorn missing a few players tonight, $2.42 on the Blues is worth a shot with medium stakes. Also take them with a +12.5 head start at $1.90 to cover yourself, if they lose i dont think it will be by much. Pick Carlton WIN at $2.42 - (4/10) Pick Carlton +12.5 at $1.90 - (6/10)

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Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) I think last night's result with brisbane winning at odds of around $5 against the Bulldogs $1-17 or so shows how unpredictable the pre season games are. Brisbane come off a game where they were playing in driving rain on a sodden ground, and still they outran the Bulldogs to win when the dogs were raging favourites. All things being equal the Hawks should win this game tonight as they are a better side than Carlton, but it depends who is having a go, and who really wants to win...The Hawks were impressive last week against Melbourne and they are an improving side with plenty of young talent on the rise.

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