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Value Betting

gamesfuture

By gamesfuture
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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VALUE BETTING This is how it works: using rather hard equations, made using previous match results, we define the probability of an outcome in percent. After that we compare our probability with bookmakers bets (in our case we use a safe bookmaker – Gamebookers). We find the games that are overrated by bookmakers and find profit margins from bookmakers’ mistakes!

It isn’t a secret that sometimes in life in general and also in football, certain events happen regardless of any staticstics or laws. That is why we introduced a “correction koeficient”, or a “insurance from high risks”. We call this the “championship efficiency”. The higher the positive figure is, the lower the possibility to expect a surprise!

In this topic I will be posting bets on totals. This way we can define the competitive advantage of our product together.

I will filter everything easily:

On the games with a value betting rating of 120% or more will enter this topic, as well as championships for which our rating is positive.

The sum of the bet is fixed and is equal to 3% from the bank Odds are taken from bookmaker gamebookers

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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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Re: Value Betting 03.02.2007 16:30 ARMINIA BIELEFELD B, MOENCHENGLADBACH Under 2,5 1,75 17:00 BRISTOL ROVERS PETERBOROUGH Under 2,5 1,65 17:00 BRADFORD NOTTM FOREST Under 2,5 1,65 17:00 HEREFORD STOCKPORT Under 2,5 1,75 17:00 PIACENZA BRESCIA Over 2,5 2,05 17:00 NOTTS COUNTY LINCOLN Over 2,5 1,85 17:00 JUVENTUS RIMINI Over 2,5 1,7 17:00 DONCASTER CARLISLE Over 2,5 1,85 17:00 NORTHAMPTON CREWE Under 2,5 1,85 17:00 WALSALL ROCHDALE Under 2,5 1,8 17:00 MANTOVA AREZZO Under 2,5 1,55 17:00 CHESTERFIELD BOURNEMOUTH Under 2,5 1,75 17:00 WREXHAM WYCOMBE Under 2,5 1,75 19:00 PAOK PANATHINAIKOS Over 2,5 2,15 19:00 V, MANISASPOR TRABZONSPOR Over 2,5 1,8 19:30 CADIZ TENERIFE Under 2,5 1,45 19:30 ALBACETE ELCHE Under 2,5 1,55 20:30 PSV AZ ALKMAAR Over 2,5 1,5 21:00 MONACO AUXERRE Over 2,5 2,25 21:00 NICE BORDEAUX Over 2,5 2,35 21:00 VALENCIENNES LENS Over 2,5 2,25 21:00 SOCHAUX RENNES Under 2,5 1,55 21:00 HERCULES R, MADRID CASTILLA Over 2,5 2,05 21:00 ST ETIENNE SEDAN Over 2,5 2,05

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AlanDB

AlanDB

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Re: Value Betting Hello and :welcome Seems like sound logic to me. Have you considered laying any selections at the betting exchanges if there is value to be had there? Maybe harder to do due to the generally high odds of lay bets.

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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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Re: Value Betting

Hello and :welcome Seems like sound logic to me. Have you considered laying any selections at the betting exchanges if there is value to be had there? Maybe harder to do due to the generally high odds of lay bets.
We will be testing this our system on this forum. Please write me an e-mail: [email protected] and I will send you a link where you can see the system fully.
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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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Re: Value Betting 03.02.2007 16:30 ARMINIA BIELEFELD B, MOENCHENGLADBACH Under 2,5 1,75 0-2 WIN 17:00 BRISTOL ROVERS PETERBOROUGH Under 2,5 1,65 3-2 LOST 17:00 BRADFORD NOTTM FOREST Under 2,5 1,65 2-2 LOST 17:00 HEREFORD STOCKPORT Under 2,5 1,75 0-2 WIN 17:00 PIACENZA BRESCIA Over 2,5 2,05 Postp. 17:00 NOTTS COUNTY LINCOLN Over 2,5 1,85 3-1 WIN 17:00 JUVENTUS RIMINI Over 2,5 1,7 Postp. 17:00 DONCASTER CARLISLE Over 2,5 1,85 1-2 WIN 17:00 NORTHAMPTON CREWE Under 2,5 1,85 1-2 LOST 17:00 WALSALL ROCHDALE Under 2,5 1,8 1-1 WIN 17:00 MANTOVA AREZZO Under 2,5 1,55 Postp. 17:00 CHESTERFIELD BOURNEMOUTH Under 2,5 1,75 0-1 WIN 17:00 WREXHAM WYCOMBE Under 2,5 1,75 0-2 WIN 19:00 PAOK PANATHINAIKOS Over 2,5 2,15 2-1 WIN 19:00 V, MANISASPOR TRABZONSPOR Over 2,5 1,8 0-0 LOST 19:30 CADIZ TENERIFE Under 2,5 1,45 1-0 WIN 19:30 ALBACETE ELCHE Under 2,5 1,55 0-0 WIN 20:30 PSV AZ ALKMAAR Over 2,5 1,5 2-3 WIN 21:00 MONACO AUXERRE Over 2,5 2,25 2-1 WIN 21:00 NICE BORDEAUX Over 2,5 2,35 2-1 WIN 21:00 VALENCIENNES LENS Over 2,5 2,25 1-3 WIN 21:00 SOCHAUX RENNES Under 2,5 1,55 0-0 WIN 21:00 HERCULES R, MADRID CASTILLA Over 2,5 2,05 0-3 WIN 21:00 ST ETIENNE SEDAN Over 2,5 2,05 1-2 WIN Total statistic: Staked: 21 Won: 17 (81%) Lost: 4 (19%) Avg. odd won bets: 1,86 Yield: +50.7% Profit: +32%

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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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Re: Value Betting 04.02.2007 13:30 VITESSE NEC NIJMEGEN Under 2,5 2 14:00 BURSASPOR ERCIYESSPOR Over 2,5 1,85 14:00 SIVASSPOR RIZESPOR Under 2,5 1,65 15:00 HANSA ROSTOCK GREUTHER FURTH Under 2,5 1,75 15:00 PANIONIOS APOLLON K, Under 2,5 1,5 15:00 SC PADERBORN 07 FC KAISERSLAUTERN Under 2,5 1,65 15:00 SpVgg UNTERHACHING SC FREIBURG Under 2,5 1,7 16:00 GAZIANTEPSPOR BESIKTAS Under 2,5 1,75 18:00 BEIRA MAR U, LEIRIA Over 2,5 2,15 18:00 CASTELLON VECINDARIO Over 2,5 2,05 18:00 SEVILLE REAL SOCIEDAD Under 2,5 2 18:00 V, SETUBAL BELENENSES Over 2,5 2,15 18:30 SALAMANCA EJIDO Under 2,5 1,5 19:00 AEK ATHENS OLYMPIAKOS P, Over 2,5 2,1 19:00 TROYES LYON Under 2,5 1,75 20:00 REAL MADRID LEVANTE Over 2,5 1,8 22:00 OSASUNA BARCELONA Over 2,5 1,87 22:15 SP, BRAGA AVES Over 2,5 1,9

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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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Re: Value Betting

04.02.2007 13:30 VITESSE NEC NIJMEGEN Under 2,5 2 1-1 WIN 14:00 BURSASPOR ERCIYESSPOR Over 2,5 1,85 0-0 LOST 14:00 SIVASSPOR RIZESPOR Under 2,5 1,65 1-0 WIN 15:00 HANSA ROSTOCK GREUTHER FURTH Under 2,5 1,75 1-0 WIN 15:00 PANIONIOS APOLLON K, Under 2,5 1,5 3-1 LOST 15:00 SC PADERBORN 07 FC KAISERSLAUTERN Under 2,5 1,65 0-1 WIN 15:00 SpVgg UNTERHACHING SC FREIBURG Under 2,5 1,7 0-2 WIN 16:00 GAZIANTEPSPOR BESIKTAS Under 2,5 1,75 0-0 WIN 18:00 BEIRA MAR U, LEIRIA Over 2,5 2,15 1-0 LOST 18:00 CASTELLON VECINDARIO Over 2,5 2,05 0-0 LOST 18:00 SEVILLE REAL SOCIEDAD Under 2,5 2 0-0 WIN 18:00 V, SETUBAL BELENENSES Over 2,5 2,15 0-1 LOST 18:30 SALAMANCA EJIDO Under 2,5 1,5 0-0 WIN 19:00 AEK ATHENS OLYMPIAKOS P, Over 2,5 2,1 3-3 WIN 19:00 TROYES LYON Under 2,5 1,75 1-0 WIN 20:00 REAL MADRID LEVANTE Over 2,5 1,8 0-1 LOST 22:00 OSASUNA BARCELONA Over 2,5 1,87 0-0 LOST 22:15 SP, BRAGA AVES Over 2,5 1,9 1-0 LOST
Total statistic: Staked: 39 Won: 27 (69%) Lost: 12 (31%) Avg. odd won bets: 1,83 Yield: +26.9% Profit: +31.5%
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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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Re: Value Betting

Great day for the unders :ok Not so good for the overs especialy at Portugal. Waiting next picks
Yes, Portugal has brought us. These parameters will lower Portugal in a minus, and in the nearest matches of this championship will not be. It is a part of algorithm. In general for two days results good, during testing I had profit of 15 % from a turn.
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Dices

Dices

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Re: Value Betting What is this "efficiency of the championships" ? Possitive - minus figures ?

These parameters will lower Portugal in a minus, and in the nearest matches of this championship will not be
Not approved league?
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gamesfuture

gamesfuture

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Re: Value Betting Temporarily. While the profit on this championship does not become possitive. I from all value, presented to my site, choose only those championships which are in plus. If to take statistics of all forecasts, profit somewhere 5 % from a turn. In base more than 1000 rates. And if to choose only the positive championships, profit of 15 % from a turn. But I shall test still, early still to do final conclusions. " efficiency of the championships " specifies success of the given championship.

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