JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Apologies to BOWLES if he thinks i'm trying to pinch his thread but i've always been interested in historical trends in races and his new thread has encouraged me to have a look at this myself . The first race to look at is the 3.15 at LINGFIELD on Weds.

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397174&r_date=2006-01-04',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=597049',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Principal Witness (14)	5	8-9	10/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=17934",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Tom Dascombe	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=8563",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Steve Drowne	66
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363120&r_date=2005-01-05',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=571368',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Nawow (6)	5	9-3	6/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=375",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P D Cundell	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13317",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Dane O'Neill	77
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343415&r_date=2004-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=578812',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Maystock (8)	4	9-0	8/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=12368",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G A Butler	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=81447",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Liam Treadwell	83
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=326087&r_date=2003-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=516912',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Altay (8)	6	9-10	7/2F	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=8010",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>R A Fahey	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=76957",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Paul Hanagan	83
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=311136&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=535005',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Amigo (2)	4	8-5	11/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=436",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P Mitchell	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=2496",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jimmy Quinn	61
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=310219&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=542454',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Tranquil Moon (10)	4	8-8	5/2F	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=680",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>D W P Arbuthnot	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=9945",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>J D Smith	66
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=295073&r_date=2001-01-10',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2001	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=501271',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Lost Spirit (6)	5	8-1	10/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=2576",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P W Hiatt	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=78224",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>George Baker	55
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=275733&r_date=2000-01-12',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2000	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=476009',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Rayik (6)	5	9-5	8/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7833",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G L Moore	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=9128",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Gyles Parkin	74

We can see right away that the age of previous winners is interesting with Four 5y-os , Three 4y-os and One 6y-o winning since 2000. Also the odds of the previous winners narrow the gap to be studied with the range being from Fav up to 11/1. A look at when each winner last ran showed that all ran their previous race to this in less than 41 days . SELECTION - ARIODANTE + SOVEREIGN SPIRIT - Both 5y-o , 5/1 and 4/1 in the RP f'cast and have ran L.T.O in under 41 days. [if LIBERTY RUN starts at odds under the 12/1 as forecasted then it should also be considered] 2nd race to look at is the 3.45 at LINGFIELD.

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397170&r_date=2006-01-04',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=557317',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Sir Haydn (14)	6	9-3	9/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=35",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>J R Jenkins	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=12780",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Eddie Ahern	82
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363115&r_date=2005-01-05',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=580717',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Zalkani (8)	5	9-2	12/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=14365",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>B G Powell	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=76957",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Paul Hanagan	80
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343412&r_date=2004-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=543986',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Gold Guest (10)	5	9-7	6/1C	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=3846",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P D Evans	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=80421",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Stephen Donohoe	71
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=326943&r_date=2003-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=516078',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Shaman (4)	6	9-7	13/2	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7833",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G L Moore	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13700",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Shane Kelly	62
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=326090&r_date=2003-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=532541',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Figura (11)	5	9-6	7/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=5321",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>R Ingram	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13699",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>N Callan	63
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=311135&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=532772',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Calling Dot Com (13)	4	9-12	11/4F	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=8867",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>N P Littmoden	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=8417",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>T G McLaughlin	74
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=310214&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=476951',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Sammy's Shuffle (3)	7	9-9	7/2F	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=4783",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jamie Poulton	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=1131",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Simon Whitworth	66
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=262101&r_date=1999-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1999	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=68463',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Confronter (6)	10	8-13	4/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=870",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>S Dow	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13008",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Paul Doe	61
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=261376&r_date=1999-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1999	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=449986',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Star Turn (8)	5	8-11	5/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7325",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>R M Flower	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13317",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Dane O'Neill	56
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=246965&r_date=1998-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1998	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=450228',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Bon Guest (1)	4	9-5	12/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=704",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Miss B Sanders	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=972",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>A Clark	59

Agian the age range is interesting with 8 out of 10 winners [race split in 2002 +1999 ] aged 4-6 .[however this only removes one horse] The weight range shows that no horse carrying less than 8-11 has won [ race was 0-60 up to 2 years ago ] Apart from the 1998 winner [first outing since Oct] ALL the previous winners have raced within 21 days of this race. The winning odds have been from Fav - 12/1 SELECTION - ALEXIAN nearly fits all the bills , only carrying 8-9, but the age[4 y-o], odds [6/1 RP f'cast] and days since L.T.O [16] all fall into place. I'm putting the emphasis on the days between races in this race so the top 3 of SONNY PARKIN [26 days],BLACKTOFT [29]+ BERKHAMSTEAD [28]are narrowly overlooked.

[bowles10]

Re: Trends Good Luck JTW1, i have no problem with this especially as i am likely only to tackle the main events on a Saturday. :ok Best of luck.