hayward2k Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins Just a word of advice........ You should really post selections before the event. I believe it is called "after eventing". You should really read the whole thread before making accusations of 'after eventing. ;) Nice picking Sniff keep up the good work mate! :clap I put your two selections in an accumalator with Real Madrid. 3-0 loss at home! :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 21, 2006 Author Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins Just a word of advice........ You should really post selections before the event. I believe it is called "after eventing". People may not be too bothered at the moment as your not claiming to be making loads of money - on the contrary it seems you're trying very hard to understand all the basics. plopplop, look for post number 19 of this thread dated 19-12-2006 13:02 As for trying to understand, yes it very difficult to grasp when you don't understand. I know you don't wanna overcook things at the moment but you should consider doubles and triples with such a high strike rate. GL for the future. My 100th post!!!!!!!! It's on my plans for minimum of trebles to boost the winnings, and also Asians as suggested by Barrhead Thanks ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 21, 2006 Author Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins Nice picking Sniff keep up the good work mate! :clap I put your two selections in an accumalator with Real Madrid. 3-0 loss at home! :@ Thanks for the comment, and sorry about Real Madrid :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Home Wins Here is my next lot of home predictions 24-Dec-2006 AZ Alkmaar - Nijmegen 23-Dec-2006 Celtic - Falkirk 23-Dec-2006 Feyenoord - Sparta 23-Dec-2006 Fiorentina - Messina 23-Dec-2006 Inter - Atalanta 23-Dec-2006 Liverpool - Watford 23-Dec-2006 Lyon - Monaco 23-Dec-2006 Milton Keynes Dons - Rochdale 23-Dec-2006 Morton - Raith Rvs 23-Dec-2006 PSV Eindhoven - Willem II 23-Dec-2006 Roma - Cagliari 22-Dec-2006 Albinoleffe - Pescara 22-Dec-2006 Juventus - Arezzo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Re: Home Wins plopplop, look for post number 19 of this thread dated 19-12-2006 13:02 As for trying to understand, yes it very difficult to grasp when you don't understand. It's on my plans for minimum of trebles to boost the winnings, and also Asians as suggested by Barrhead Thanks ;) I do apologise. Keep up the good work. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 24, 2006 Author Share Posted December 24, 2006 Re: Home Wins My system predictions for 26th/27th December 27-Dec-2006 Ajax - Roda JC 26-Dec-2006 Birmingham - QPR 26-Dec-2006 Bristol City - Bournemouth 26-Dec-2006 Celtic - Dundee United 26-Dec-2006 Chelsea - Reading 26-Dec-2006 Dag and Red - Grays 26-Dec-2006 Lincoln - Boston 26-Dec-2006 Man United - Wigan 26-Dec-2006 Oxford - Woking 26-Dec-2006 Walsall - Shrewsbury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 24, 2006 Author Share Posted December 24, 2006 Re: Home Wins 23-Dec-2006 Celtic - Falkirk :nana 23-Dec-2006 Feyenoord - Sparta :nana 23-Dec-2006 Fiorentina - Messina :nana 23-Dec-2006 Inter - Atalanta :nana 23-Dec-2006 Liverpool - Watford :nana 23-Dec-2006 Lyon - Monaco :loon 23-Dec-2006 Milton Keynes Dons - Rochdale :nana 23-Dec-2006 Morton - Raith Rvs :nana 23-Dec-2006 PSV Eindhoven - Willem II :nana 23-Dec-2006 Roma - Cagliari :nana 22-Dec-2006 Albinoleffe - Pescara :loon 22-Dec-2006 Juventus - Arezzo :loon stats for the matches above are:... Matches Predicted: 12 Home Wins Predicted: 9 Strike Rate: 75.00% Predictions that turned out to be Draws: 3 Predictions that turned out to be Aways: 0 Total Home Goals Scored: 23 Total Away Goals Scored: 6 Under/Over 2.5: 2.42 Average Score: 1.92-0.50 Global stats for all my system predicted matches are.. Matches Predicted: 64 Home Wins Predicted: 50 Strike Rate: 78.13% Predictions that turned out to be Draws: 11 Predictions that turned out to be Aways: 3 Total Home Goals Scored: 145 Total Away Goals Scored: 39 Under/Over 2.5: 2.88 Average Score: 2.27-0.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 27, 2006 Author Share Posted December 27, 2006 Re: Home Wins My system predictions for 24th - 26th December 26-Dec-2006 Birmingham 2 1 QPR H :nana 26-Dec-2006 Bristol City 2 2 Bournemouth D :loon 26-Dec-2006 Celtic 2 2 Dundee United D :loon 26-Dec-2006 Chelsea 2 2 Reading D :loon 26-Dec-2006 Dag and Red 0 0 Grays D :loon 26-Dec-2006 Lincoln 2 1 Boston H :nana 26-Dec-2006 Man United 3 1 Wigan H :nana 26-Dec-2006 Oxford 0 0 Woking D :loon 26-Dec-2006 Walsall 1 0 Shrewsbury H :nana 24-Dec-2006 AZ Alkmaar 0 0 Nijmegen D :loon Ohhhh, to many draws this time round, to much turkey AFAIK for the players and they did not play to form. stats for the matches above are:... Matches Predicted: 10 Home Wins Predicted: 4 Strike Rate: 40.00% Predictions that turned out to be Draws: 6 Predictions that turned out to be Aways: 0 Total Home Goals Scored: 14 Total Away Goals Scored: 9 Under/Over 2.5: 2.30 Average Score: 1.40-0.90 Global stats for all my system predicted matches are.. Matches Predicted: 74 Home Wins Predicted: 54 Strike Rate: 72.97% Predictions that turned out to be Draws: 17 Predictions that turned out to be Aways: 3 Total Home Goals Scored: 159 Total Away Goals Scored: 48 Under/Over 2.5: 2.80 Average Score: 2.15-0.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 28, 2006 Author Share Posted December 28, 2006 Re: Home Wins Last of my predictions from 26/27th December 27-Dec-2006 Ajax 2 0 Roda JC H :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 29, 2006 Author Share Posted December 29, 2006 Re: Home Wins Here is my system predictions for 29th-31st December 31-Dec-2006 AZ Alkmaar - Roda JC 30-Dec-2006 Chelsea - Fulham 30-Dec-2006 Coventry - Southend 30-Dec-2006 Dag and Red - Halifax 30-Dec-2006 Gravesend - Rushden & D 30-Dec-2006 Hibernian - Dunfermline 30-Dec-2006 Man United - Reading 30-Dec-2006 PSV Eindhoven - Den Haag 30-Dec-2006 Scunthorpe - Bournemouth 30-Dec-2006 Stoke - Leeds 30-Dec-2006 Walsall - Bristol Rvs 29-Dec-2006 Birmingham - Luton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 31, 2006 Author Share Posted December 31, 2006 Re: Home Wins Here is my system predictions for 29th-31st December 31-Dec-2006 AZ Alkmaar - Roda JC :loon 30-Dec-2006 Chelsea - Fulham :loon 30-Dec-2006 Coventry - Southend :loon 30-Dec-2006 Dag and Red - Halifax :nana 30-Dec-2006 Gravesend - Rushden & D :nana 30-Dec-2006 Hibernian - Dunfermline :nana 30-Dec-2006 Man United - Reading :nana 30-Dec-2006 PSV Eindhoven - Den Haag :nana 30-Dec-2006 Scunthorpe - Bournemouth :nana 30-Dec-2006 Stoke - Leeds :nana 30-Dec-2006 Walsall - Bristol Rvs :loon 29-Dec-2006 Birmingham - Luton :loon Stats for the matches above: Matches Predicted: 12 Home Wins Predicted: 7 Strike Rate: 58.33% Predictions that turned out to be Draws: 5 Predictions that turned out to be Aways: 0 Total Home Goals Scored: 24 Total Away Goals Scored: 15 Under/Over 2.5: 3.25 Average Score: 2.00-1.25 Stats for all matches: Matches Predicted: 87 Home Wins Predicted: 62 Strike Rate: 71.26% Predictions that turned out to be Draws: 22 Predictions that turned out to be Aways: 3 Total Home Goals Scored: 185 Total Away Goals Scored: 63 Under/Over 2.5: 2.85 Average Score: 2.13-0.72 Surprising that if I am wrong they turn out to be draws!! Guess the the Xmas turkey is still sitting on there stomachs and not letting them play well :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Home Wins My System Predictions for 1st/2nd January. My Fortune Favour The Foolish in 2007 (1) 02-Jan-2007 Arsenal - Charlton (2) 02-Jan-2007 Brechin - Forfar (3) 02-Jan-2007 Celtic - Kilmarnock (4) 01-Jan-2007 Burton - Stafford Rangers (5) 01-Jan-2007 Fulham - Watford Home (6) 01-Jan-2007 Sheffield Weds - Hull (7) 01-Jan-2007 Swansea - Brentford Just hope they all have clear heads after the New Year celebrations or I could be in for more draws :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 1, 2007 Share Posted January 1, 2007 Re: Home Wins .... I'm most impressed fella, first time I have been to this thread and I will be back.Tried to register on your site, but registration was disabled. Ever thought of putting a newsletter out with predictions?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Home Wins .... I'm most impressed fella, first time I have been to this thread and I will be back.Tried to register on your site, but registration was disabled. Ever thought of putting a newsletter out with predictions?;) Thanks Merlin for the good words. Registration is down as I could not be bothered to write out a purpose built website, so I just used a portal system that I use for other site I administer and put all my code/db via this system. I might one day open it up and produce a forum/newsletter but at the moment I am just constantly fiddling with the pages adding new content and code etc. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Re: Home Wins .... looks like there must have been a few unclear heads still around, particularly in Scotland, judging by the draws!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 3, 2007 Author Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins .... looks like there must have been a few unclear heads still around, particularly in Scotland, judging by the draws!;) Yeah, looks like it... :sad Here are the outcome of my matches for 1st/2nd Jan 02-Jan-2007 Arsenal 4 0 Charlton H :nana 02-Jan-2007 Brechin 2 2 Forfar D :loon 02-Jan-2007 Celtic 2 0 Kilmarnock H :nana 01-Jan-2007 Burton 0 0 Stafford Rangers D :loon 01-Jan-2007 Fulham 0 0 Watford D :loon 01-Jan-2007 Sheffield Weds 1 2 Hull A :wall 01-Jan-2007 Swansea 2 0 Brentford H :nana Stats for the above matches are... Matches Predicted: 7 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 3 Strike Rate: 42.86% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 3 Strike Rate: 42.86% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 1 Strike Rate: 14.29% Total Home Goals Scored: 11 Total Away Goals Scored: 4 Under/Over 2.5: 2.14 Average Score: 1.57-0.57 Global stats for all my system predicted matches are.. Matches Predicted: 94 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 65 Strike Rate: 69.15% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 25 Strike Rate: 26.60% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 4 Strike Rate: 4.26% Total Home Goals Scored: 196 Total Away Goals Scored: 67 Under/Over 2.5: 2.80 Average Score: 2.09-0.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins Sniff, I see that 5 of your picks were unders for 01/02 Jan...... What are the global stats for under/over - I know you quote the average, I just wondered how it broke down...... Any chance? Keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 3, 2007 Author Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins Sniff, I see that 5 of your picks were unders for 01/02 Jan...... What are the global stats for under/over - I know you quote the average, I just wondered how it broke down...... Any chance? Keep up the good work. Sorry plopplop I don't know what you mean by Global stats? Could you explain so I can give you the information, or I have dumped my predictions table out of my online db and attached it here as a xls file for you to look at. If sould be easy to understand the xls. The None in ResultActual means that I have not yet picked up the results data from football-data as as such these matches are not visible in my Outcome pages on my site as the are in the ether. Hope this helps.conv_175.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins Sorry plopplop I don't know what you mean by Global stats? I was using the terminology you had used: Global stats for all my system predicted matches are.. Matches Predicted: 94 Home Predictions that turned out to be correct: 65 Strike Rate: 69.15% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Draws): 25 Strike Rate: 26.60% Predictions that turned out to be incorrect (Aways): 4 Strike Rate: 4.26% Total Home Goals Scored: 196 Total Away Goals Scored: 67 Under/Over 2.5: 2.80 Average Score: 2.09-0.71 I'll have a look at your attachment. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins 42/94 predicted games to date were under 2.5 goals. 44.7% Meaning 55.3% were over. It must just have been one of those weeks i guess. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 3, 2007 Author Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins I was using the terminology you had used: Cheers Arr, I see. Global Stats refer to all records in my Database that have been selected for predictions. :D Enjoy the xls, hope it brings some enjoyment to you and others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 3, 2007 Author Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins 42/94 predicted games to date were under 2.5 goals. 44.7% Meaning 55.3% were over. It must just have been one of those weeks i guess. :ok I have a page specifically for Unders 2.5, Overs 2.5 and also Asian -1.5 handicaps all on my site as well. I am using my predictions and trying now to see where value lies with different types of bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecoolcat Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins I think I may follow along with a few trebles throughout 6/7 selections. (on a low stake at first) Looks a good system, got quite a few I wanna test out :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Re: Home Wins I have a page specifically for Unders 2.5, Overs 2.5 and also Asian -1.5 handicaps all on my site as well. I am using my predictions and trying now to see where value lies with different types of bets. I often look on your site - the overs is a pretty good strike rate @ 55.32%. You'd need avg win odds of > 1.82 to be profitable if my calculations are right. If I recall you said that you use football-data.co.uk as your source - they carry the over/under 2.5 odds i think - I wonder if level stakes of 10points on over 2.5 goals would return a profit across all your selections. I am sure this is on your plan - it just grabbed my attention tonight thats all. For example - the average average odds for over 2.5 goals for the premiership year to date is 2.04, the average maximum available odds for > 2.5 goals is 2.19. So providing there is no massive bias in your picks against the average premiership game -then you might be onto something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 4, 2007 Author Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: Home Wins I think I may follow along with a few trebles throughout 6/7 selections. (on a low stake at first) Looks a good system' date=' got quite a few I wanna test out :D[/quote'] That is what I am working towards and just updated my predictions page with trebles and accumulators options. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 4, 2007 Author Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: Home Wins I often look on your site - the overs is a pretty good strike rate @ 55.32%. You'd need avg win odds of > 1.82 to be profitable if my calculations are right. If I recall you said that you use football-data.co.uk as your source - they carry the over/under 2.5 odds i think - I wonder if level stakes of 10points on over 2.5 goals would return a profit across all your selections. I am sure this is on your plan - it just grabbed my attention tonight thats all. Football-Data has the data for BetBrain only for Unders/Overs but I don't currently use these as I am currently only concentrating on Bet365 as the online bookie of my choice untill I start to look around for other bookies and value bets between them all. I just don't fancy opening several accounts. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 4, 2007 Author Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: Home Wins I couldn't resist having a play with that attachment you put up. Sorry if I've gone a bit far here - tell me to keep my beak out if you want too. I'll not post the pivot table as an attachment without your say so - i'll happily send it to you only if you want. I just had a bit of time to kill before going to bed. Its looking good - some backtesting on previous seasons would (dis)prove what I have put above and give you some plans going forward. Keep it going, as many have said before - there are some quality picks coming up here. Matt My god, you have really dug into the stats more than I have, and they really do so some surprsing things. WOW Do what you like with the pivot, it would be nice to see it and share share with everyone else here. I did do some initial backtesting several months ago, just bulk figures and it came out at 54%, so at the moment I am happy with the current 69% but hope to get this higher. Now I am off to really digest your presentation of my data and see if I can learn alot more, so I could drop x leagues etc. Thanks Thanks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 4, 2007 Share Posted January 4, 2007 Re: Home Wins No problem......:ok Just add future predictions to the top (row 2) of the "predictions" sheet and then refresh the pivot table to include the new rows - it will include the new ones automatically. Enjoy............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted January 5, 2007 Author Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: Home Wins Here are my system predictions for 6th Jan (1) 06-Jan-2007 Ath Madrid - Gimnastic Home (2) 06-Jan-2007 Dag and Red - Woking Home (3) 06-Jan-2007 Gravesend - Halifax Home (4) 06-Jan-2007 Wycombe - Rochdale Home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 5, 2007 Share Posted January 5, 2007 Re: Home Wins STG, Whats the rating for the Ath Madrid V Gimnastic game? In light of what I posted above it'd be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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