SniffTheGlove Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Hello All, It's been quite a while since I made any posting here, I think last February! Alot to do with my illness :sad and also trying different systems in my mind and in my own software. Been using Joseph's Football-Data for all my data/fixtures. I have my own updater that collects his data files every day and then imports into an access DB. I am finally happy with the prediction software I have wrote :hope and I have just started to paper trial it (well leaving it to my software and web server to trial it). I am only working with home UK/European match predictions at the moment, as always are a bit elusive at the moment as they turn into homes/draws. So it started last week week and its currently at 78% strike rate (over 14 matches), but of course you know time will tell. Due to the frequency of the incoming data sometimes predictions have been played out but Joseph has not got round to updating his data, so on my site there will be times when matches will be in the ether between predictions and outcomes. I am now concentrating on a betting system to cope with the predictions as sometimes there may no predictions for a day/weekend or there may be 20 predictions per day/weekend. So there will be a fixed amount of units used for betting divided between x matches. My system can be located at http://www.frp.arrowsmith.uk.com and I will also try to copy that data over to this thread as and when necessary. PS, the next fixture update from Football-data will be Friday Afternoon so my software will produce its (if any) predictions after 5:30pm on Friday. Any help/advice would be nice. Thank You Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Re: Home Wins good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted November 30, 2006 Author Share Posted November 30, 2006 Re: Home Wins Received the fixture list early this week from football-data so my software has processed and predicts homes for the following, though the Bet365 odds are not in football-data's fixture list, hence the 0. Predictions for matches to be played on 30-Nov-2006 and beyond MatchDate HomeTeam AwayTeam Bet365 Odds 02-Dec-2006 AEK Ionikos 0 02-Dec-2006 Bayern Munich M-gladbach 0 02-Dec-2006 Berwick Elgin 0 02-Dec-2006 Celtic Aberdeen 0 02-Dec-2006 Dag and Red Southport 0 02-Dec-2006 Genk Lokeren 0 02-Dec-2006 Inter Siena 0 02-Dec-2006 Morton Forfar 0 02-Dec-2006 Partick Queen of Sth 0 02-Dec-2006 Porto Boavista 0 02-Dec-2006 Rimini Vicenza 0 03-Dec-2006 Ajax Willem II 0 03-Dec-2006 AZ Alkmaar Excelsior 0 03-Dec-2006 Livorno Chievo 0 03-Dec-2006 Real Madrid Ath Bilbao 0 Matches Predicted: 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: Home Wins My system has made another assessment of the data and from the predictions it has dropped the following 2 matches, so please disregard them from my previous post. 02-Dec-2006 Celtic Aberdeen 0 03-Dec-2006 Livorno Chievo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 4, 2006 Author Share Posted December 4, 2006 Re: Home Wins 03-Dec-2006 Ajax 6 0 Willem II :nana 03-Dec-2006 AZ Alkmaar 5 0 Excelsior :nana 03-Dec-2006 Real Madrid 2 1 Ath Bilbao :nana 02-Dec-2006 AEK 2 0 Ionikos :nana 02-Dec-2006 Bayern Munich 1 1 M-gladbach :loon 02-Dec-2006 Berwick 3 1 Elgin :nana 02-Dec-2006 Dag and Red 0 0 Southport :loon 02-Dec-2006 Genk 1 0 Lokeren :nana 02-Dec-2006 Inter 2 0 Siena :nana 02-Dec-2006 Morton 1 1 Forfar :loon 02-Dec-2006 Partick 1 1 Queen of Sth :loon 02-Dec-2006 Porto 2 0 Boavista :nana 02-Dec-2006 Rimini 1 1 Vicenza :loon Matches Predicted: 28 Home Wins Predicted: 20 Strike Rate: 71.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted December 4, 2006 Share Posted December 4, 2006 Re: Home Wins What kind of average win odds are you getting Sniff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 4, 2006 Author Share Posted December 4, 2006 Re: Home Wins What kind of average win odds are you getting Sniff? So far the average is 1.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted December 4, 2006 Share Posted December 4, 2006 Re: Home Wins Would you be in profit at 1pt level stakes? Whats the range of your odds? With such a high strike rate - wouldn't it be more profitable to perm your bet - triples and up maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 4, 2006 Author Share Posted December 4, 2006 Re: Home Wins Would you be in profit at 1pt level stakes? Whats the range of your odds? With such a high strike rate - wouldn't it be more profitable to perm your bet - triples and up maybe. I don't actually use the odds in the prediction routines, I just let my webserver run on auto, running the data every morning and evening to produce the predictions. The odds quoted are Bet365 and from Football-Data's files and I intend to use Bet365 when I turn to money trading in the future. I am working on a betting system to cope with the predictions, I have thought about perming trebles etc on the selections, or even other higher multiples. Still working on it whilst the paper trading continues. On backtesting it was running about 54%, so paper trading now and then also will be looking at correct scores in the future. This is an evolving system, that's based on past results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted December 4, 2006 Share Posted December 4, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 4, 2006 Author Share Posted December 4, 2006 Re: Home Wins it all seems impressive to me - i like your website. Regardless of whether you include the odds - i was thinking of something along the lines of: --CUT--- Is the 54% the backtested strike rate? Will you be revealing anything to do with your selection criteria? Have you considered pulling info from other sources to cover for the fact Joe is a bit slow updating the stats after the matches. That is quite impressive, I might just consider that, especially when I turn to money trading as it will keep an account of the balances etc. 54% was my backtest strike rate for last season data only (From end of October 2005 to May 2006) The system is just previous matches and the results are allocated a score depending on the result, those with higher scores are presented as predictions. I am happy with the data from Joe, not being a gambler yet I am happy with the frequency of the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted December 5, 2006 Share Posted December 5, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 8, 2006 Author Share Posted December 8, 2006 Re: Home Wins Thanks Barrhead73, I will have a good look and come back with any queries/questions. For this weekends prediction my system as predicted the following MatchDate HomeTeam AwayTeam Bet365 Odds 08-Dec-2006 Caen Istres 0 09-Dec-2006 Barcelona Sociedad 0 09-Dec-2006 Juventus Verona 0 09-Dec-2006 Man United Man City 0 09-Dec-2006 Notts County Macclesfield 0 09-Dec-2006 Piacenza Arezzo 0 09-Dec-2006 Wycombe Barnet 0 10-Dec-2006 Feyenoord Den Haag 0 10-Dec-2006 Lyon Paris SG 0 10-Dec-2006 Olympiakos Egaleo 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 11, 2006 Author Share Posted December 11, 2006 Re: Home Wins Here are the results of of my system predictions between 08-12-2006 and 10-12-2006 MatchDate HomeTeam Goals Goals AwayTeam Status 10-Dec-2006 Feyenoord 3 1 Den Haag :nana 10-Dec-2006 Lyon 3 1 Paris SG :nana 10-Dec-2006 Olympiakos 3 2 Egaleo :nana 09-Dec-2006 Barcelona 1 0 Sociedad :nana 09-Dec-2006 Juventus 1 0 Verona :nana 09-Dec-2006 Man United 3 1 Man City :nana 09-Dec-2006 Notts County 1 2 Macclesfield A :wall 09-Dec-2006 Piacenza 1 0 Arezzo :nana 09-Dec-2006 Wycombe 1 1 Barnet D :loon 08-Dec-2006 Caen 4 0 Istres :nana Weekend Results Matches Predicted: 10 Home Wins Predicted: 8 Strike Rate: 80.00 Overall Results So Far Matches Predicted: 38 Home Wins Predicted: 28 Strike Rate: 73.68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted December 11, 2006 Share Posted December 11, 2006 Re: Home Wins Well Done Sniff Do you have the odds of the games? I notice that your two losses were both League 2. I have found this league to be particularly bad at producing the expected home wins, it might be a league to avoid in future predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 12, 2006 Author Share Posted December 12, 2006 Re: Home Wins Well Done Sniff Do you have the odds of the games? I notice that your two losses were both League 2. I have found this league to be particularly bad at producing the expected home wins, it might be a league to avoid in future predictions. The odds are on my site Barrhead (see sig), as for the losses in league 2 I will keep an eye on it, however I am surprised that if the system is wrong it seems to be a draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: Home Wins Thr Rising Floor Staking Plan may be of use to you. Growth of -1.77% as opposed to -2.18% And ROI of -5.73% as opposed to -7.79% with Level stakes. Just a thought. The main thing is though, its still showing a loss and a strike rate of 75-80% is probably required for average odds of 1.29. Good Luck Barrhead, could you give me more details about the staking plan. I can figure out some of it, but how does count, floor and new come in to the mix? Could you explain, and then roughly give out how you workjed pout ROI and growth from the plan. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Home Wins I am sorry that I did not post last week predictions, Xmas shopping and illness came first. So if anyone would like to know what they were here they are, and they can also be see at my site (see sig). Please disregard if you feel the need. 17-Dec-2006 AEK 4 0 Panionios H :nana 17-Dec-2006 Inter 2 0 Messina H :nana 17-Dec-2006 Porto 4 0 Pacos Ferreira H :nana 17-Dec-2006 Werder Bremen 2 1 Wolfsburg H :nana 16-Dec-2006 Anderlecht 4 1 Bergen H :nana 16-Dec-2006 Bristol City 1 0 Millwall H :nana 16-Dec-2006 Genk 3 1 FC Brussels H :nana 16-Dec-2006 Nott-m Forest 1 3 Leyton Orient A :wall 16-Dec-2006 Olympiakos 3 0 Ionikos H :nana 16-Dec-2006 Port Vale 1 0 Brentford H :nana 15-Dec-2006 PSV Eindhoven 3 0 Heracles H :nana 13-Dec-2006 Chelsea 1 0 Newcastle H :nana Weekend Results Matches Predicted: 12 Home Wins Predicted: 11 Strike Rate: 91.67 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Home Wins I have 2 matches for tomorrow 20-Dec-2006 Palermo - Ascoli 20-Dec-2006 Sevilla - La Coruna No odds as they have not be updated in Football-Data sources Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Home Wins Outstanding results so far mate, good luck with the next load of picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Home Wins Maybe i am missing the point here, But, with fixed stakes these selections are still making a loss. With a rising staking plan it is producing growth of 1.27% It seems a lot of work for virtually no reward, which could be wiped out by a bad weekend where you strike rate drops below 70%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Home Wins Maybe i am missing the point here, But, with fixed stakes these selections are still making a loss. With a rising staking plan it is producing growth of 1.27% It seems a lot of work for virtually no reward, which could be wiped out by a bad weekend where you strike rate drops below 70%. I have asked about your Rising Floor 4 posts earlier in this thread and also in a PM. I am wishing to understand the maths and work out a staking plan. Later on it will be used for trebles etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Home Wins Apologies Sniff, i have replied to your PM just now. I didnt realise you were still working on a staking plan. I will follow this thread closely as your strike rate is very good indeed. I would also suggest that, as well as looking at trebles, you might want to look at Asian Handicaps of -1.0 as i notice that a number of your selections are producing wins of 2 goals and more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 Re: Home Wins Apologies Sniff, i have replied to your PM just now. See my reply PM :) I didnt realise you were still working on a staking plan. Sadly this is true, being short of cash I have to be careful on my bets that why I am waiting till I can be positive that I will have a good yield. I will follow this thread closely as your strike rate is very good indeed. Thank you. I would also suggest that, as well as looking at trebles, you might want to look at Asian Handicaps of -1.0 as i notice that a number of your selections are producing wins of 2 goals and more. Being old fashioned in the style of betting I am only ever used to used the betting slip in my local ladbrokes many years ago, so I am open minded to all the new types of betting, including Asian Handicaps (I have heard about it but thats all, just the name) That's why I am looking for a good staking method. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 20, 2006 Author Share Posted December 20, 2006 Re: Home Wins 20-Dec-2006 Palermo 4 - 0 Ascoli :nana 20-Dec-2006 Sevilla 3 - 0 La Coruna :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 21, 2006 Author Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins I am now trying to get the yield and ROI figures correct and I would like someone to view my webpage and clarify things. I have posted a thread in Punter's Tools & General Betting Help, please read http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=40476 for more info Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins Well done Sniff, another two good wins, plus they both won by more than one goal (see Asian Handicaps message above). Would you like me to post the odds for -1 handicaps for your weekend selections????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted December 21, 2006 Author Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins Well done Sniff, another two good wins, plus they both won by more than one goal (see Asian Handicaps message above). Would you like me to post the odds for -1 handicaps for your weekend selections????? Hi Barrhead73, Thanks for the xls, really intresting, looking at first on how to get the correct banking worked out for my selections (Yield/ROI/Strike Rate etc) first and once I understand the maths behind all that then I make the necessary changes to my Rising Floor page on my site to understand how that all works (and yes I need different dates in the xls) amd then onto Asians, Unders/Overs etc. Don't worry about the handicaps yet, as I don't want to cook my brain to quickly with all the maths. It's taking one step at a time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins Keeping a note on your selections and i think with the rising floor plan, you would be at £101.93 at the moment, £1.36 better off than level stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 Re: Home Wins 20-Dec-2006 Palermo 4 - 0 Ascoli :nana 20-Dec-2006 Sevilla 3 - 0 La Coruna :nana Just a word of advice........ You should really post selections before the event. I believe it is called "after eventing". People may not be too bothered at the moment as your not claiming to be making loads of money - on the contrary it seems you're trying very hard to understand all the basics. I know you don't wanna overcook things at the moment but you should consider doubles and triples with such a high strike rate. GL for the future. My 100th post!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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