Dale Cooper Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Nah, end of year probably not a good time to start. If I had the Celta Vigo game, I would have went for the Lille game after...4-1 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 11, 2007 Author Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Time to give this another go. I've done a bit of work on this over the summer, and hopefully have learned some things to make this last a bit longer. Changing the staking plan from putting it all on every bet to a progressive fixed plan. There will be 2 banks with £50 in each, staking a max of 50% of each on any 1 bet. So on to bet 1. Bet 1 Bolton v Newcastle Under 4.5 £25 staked @ 1.11 Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 11, 2007 Author Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Well that was a lot closer than expected. However, thankfully no more goals after the 50th min :D:D Bank 1 now stands at £52.61 Another bet for tonight... Bet 1 (Bank 2) Aston Villa v Liverpool Under 4.5 £25 staked @ 1.09 Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals good luck tonight mate - saw the scores earlier and thought you'd be sweating! should be easier with the villa game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 11, 2007 Author Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Thanks Aliando, this afternoon was very nervy! At least this evening was a little less stressful!! Liverpool won 2-1 so fairly comfortable. Bank 2 now stands at £52.14. Bank 1 is £52.61. Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Hello, You have a very interesting thread going on here. I'm trying something similar but with real money and I will post details as soon as I get to 200+ bets (to make it statistically relevant). I'm past my 50th bet so far. Anyway, I'd like to share my experience with you. My initial stake size was 25% of my bank. Odds I usually bet on are around 1.15-1.25. I decided to rollover profits for 4 straight bets, bank if they all win and then start all over. At the odds I'm currently betting, 4 rollover bets mean doubling my stake. So far I've had two running streaks, 19 and 22 wins. That means I've roughly won 7 times my stake (9 winning streaks - 2 losing stakes), and at 25% bank that translates to almost 200% profit. IMO the odds you get for your selection is a critical factor. Also, stake sizing / bankroll management can really make a difference. Although those advices are nothing new under the sun, those two factors are particularly critical for short odds staking systems. In my case, even though I like the profit I have earned so far I feel there's still room for improvement. Regards, F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals I don't know much about the Premiership but I have some stats that might be useful for you: In the last six seasons (2001-02 thru 2006-07) 271 matches out of 2280 total matches had more than 4.5 goals. That's 11.9%, which roughly means that fair odds for this market are at 1.135 ;) You have been playing at very low odds. Now, at the expense of a higher risk, rolling over profits to the next bet can help to overcome this disadvantage. Staking 1 unit @1.08 and rolling over profits for the next bet, fourteen (gulp) consecutive bets gives a profit of 1.9372, which is slightly better than level staking 1 unit @1.135 for fourteen bets (0.135x14 = 1.89). But if you manage to secure odds of 1.11 you need only five consecutive bets to match fair odds. Five profit-rollover bets @1.11 makes a profit of 0.6851, while five bets of one unit at level stakes results in a profit of 0.6750. So, IMO it comes down to this: - How many matches can you find at 1.11 odds? - Do you feel confident you can make 5 winning selections in a row? Please note that these figures are for Premiership matches only. I don't know the U/O 4.5 stats for other leagues. Does this post make any sense? [email protected] / [email protected]? :rollin F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Very nice thread developing I see... you guys have my interest and I will be starting with a bank of 100 units... I see myself betting 25% of my total bank per bet and will post full results perhaps every 25 or 50 bets... gl ppl...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Just a quick note: I've bet 25% of my INITIAL bank. In my case, even though I've managed to make a good profit I have sticked to that stake, which is now around 8.5% of my CURRENT bank account. I might consider raising my stake amount if I my bank grows so that the stake becomes 5% of the current bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Just a quick note: I've bet 25% of my INITIAL bank. In my case' date=' even though I've managed to make a good profit I have sticked to that stake, which is now around 8.5% of my CURRENT bank account. I might consider raising my stake amount if I my bank grows so that the stake becomes 5% of the current bank.[/quote'] In systems such as these raising the stake along with your bank often leads to generally a much higher return due to the high strike rate.... I am thinking of doing something like when the bank reaches $125 putting the stake back to 20% and so on an so forth, quick calculation using the average 1.11 odds would take 11 winning bets to reach the next level... quite achievable as you two have achieved... I think then a continuing stake of 20% is the way to go until the bank reaches $300 and the will go with a 16.66% (1/6) stake.... ...anyway getting ahead of myself but I think setting levels of change may prove very important... as you stated earlier the type of stake you use could mean a big difference in the long run... if either of you have your results in a spreadsheet or something I wouldn't mind taking a peak to check out the variance etc.... thanks...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 12, 2007 Author Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Thanks for the comments guys. Good luck with both of your systems. Keep us up to date with how you are getting on! In the last six seasons (2001-02 thru 2006-07) 271 matches out of 2280 total matches had more than 4.5 goals. That's 11.9%, which roughly means that fair odds for this market are at 1.135 ;) You have been playing at very low odds. This next bet should get my average odds back up a fair bit! Bet 2 (Bank 1) Chelsea v Birmingham Under 4.5 £25 staked @ 1.16 Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals unlucky mate - few would've expected birmingham to score twice in the same match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted August 12, 2007 Share Posted August 12, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals In systems such as these raising the stake along with your bank often leads to generally a much higher return due to the high strike rate.... I am thinking of doing something like when the bank reaches $125 putting the stake back to 20% and so on an so forth' date=' quick calculation using the average 1.11 odds would take 11 winning bets to reach the next level... quite achievable as you two have achieved... I think then a continuing stake of 20% is the way to go until the bank reaches $300 and the will go with a 16.66% (1/6) stake.... [/quote'] That's what I mean when I say there is room for improvement. I'll setup a simple Monte Carlo simulation and see what comes up... I didn't have it in Excel but now I do :). BTW, I've also included my first short-run loss (2 wins and then loss... damn Birmingham !! They also bit me...). I will PM you. F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Well, I finished the Monte Carlo simulation and results were interesting indeed. I set it up using a 5% stake (5 units out of a 100) and the optimal solution was rolling over bets 4, 5, or 6 times. At 4 times you get the "safest" approach, no risk of bankruptcy and a return of 50 units (50%) with 80% confidence. If you rollover stake+profit for six times there is a minimal ( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Well, I finished the Monte Carlo simulation and results were interesting indeed. I set it up using a 5% stake (5 units out of a 100) and the optimal solution was rolling over bets 4, 5, or 6 times. At 4 times you get the "safest" approach, no risk of bankruptcy and a return of 50 units (50%) with 80% confidence. If you rollover stake+profit for six times there is a minimal ( nice work mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Typical that I manage to pick the highest scoring Premier game at the weekend :wall:wall I dont think anyone thought B'ham would go to the Bridge and score 2. Going to stick with them once more though... Bet 2 (Bank 2) Reading v Chelsea Under 4.5 £25 staked @ 1.11 :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Good luck again Steve. :) And nice posts F. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals 50 minutes gone and its squeeky bum time.. Reading 1-2 Chelsea. Looks like there could be one or two more too :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals 50 minutes gone and its squeeky bum time.. Reading 1-2 Chelsea. Looks like there could be one or two more too :sad It certainly was!! Whatever happened to 2-0 to Chelsea??? :lol However, there wasn't any more goals so we have a winner! Bank 2 is now £54.75 Bank 1 stands at £27.61 Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Hoping for a dull affair at the Madejski later.. Bet 3 (Bank 1) Reading v Everton Under 4.5 £13.80 staked at 1.11 :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Reading's 1-0 win means that one is a winner too. Bank 1 is now £29.04 Straight onto the next bet too.. Bet 3 (Bank 2) Newcastle v Aston Villa Under 4.5 £27.37 staked at 1.11 :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals A perfect 0-0 and this one was never in doubt. Bank 2 is now £57.61 Bank 1 remains £29.04 Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Moving on to the next bet... Bet 4 (Bank 1) Man C v Man U Under 4.5 £14.52 staked @ 1.11 :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Thanks to Tevez we have another winner. :nana Bank 1 is now £30.56 Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Going to have 1 more for today.. Bet 4 (Bank 2) Liverpool v Chelsea Under 4.5 £28.80 staked at 1.08. :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Another winner yesterday with the Liverpool game ending 1-1. Bank 1 is now £30.56 Bank 2 is £59.80 Total is £90.36. Almost back to the starting point!!:lol Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Onto the next bet.. Bet 5 (Bank 1) Sunderland v Liverpool Under 4.5 £15.28 staked @ 1.11 :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Liverpool win 2-0 so we have a winner Bank 1 is now £32.16 Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals Straight onto the next bet.. Bet 5 (Bank 2) Aston Villa v Fulham Under 4.5 £29.90 staked @ 1.14 :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveadam23 Posted August 25, 2007 Author Share Posted August 25, 2007 Re: Steve's Under 4.5 Goals I thought this was going belly up after a very early goal, however, only 3 goals in the game so we have another winner. Bank 2 now is £63.78 Another bet for today... Bet 6 (Bank 1) Everton v Blackburn Under 4.5 £16.08 staked @ 1.11 :hope Steve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.