CHELTENHAM TRENDS

[Aykay1]

Further to Bowles10's post here are some significant trends from previous festivals which should help us narrow next weeks fields down a bit.... Im going to spend tomorrow applying these stats and narrowing the field down a bit - i'll post my findings before Tuesdays festivities! DAY 1 - TUESDAY THE SUPREME NOVICES: - 26 out of the last 29 races have gone to 5 or 6 year olds. - 2 of the other 3 have gone to Martin Pipes 4 year old¡¦s (8lb allowance) - Every winner since 1996 won on its last start. - Flat breds won every race except for last years since 1996 - Irish have won 7 of the last 12 runnings THE ARKLE - 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing, Trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds have a strong record in this race. Half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years have managed a placing. - Probably best to ignore 5 year olds. They haven¡¦t provided the winner since their allowance was cut from 8lb¡¦s to 5lb¡¦s - French bred¡¦s have a good record ¡V they have won the race 5 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. CHAMPION HURDLE -6 year olds have nearly a 50% strike rate in this in the last 25 years - 24 9 and 10 year olds have tried in the last decade and apart from the 9 year old Rooster Booster last year, one 4th place is the best they have managed - 18 of the last 19 winners won their last race. - Previous experience at Cheltenham is a big advantage. WILLIAM HILL NATIONAL HUNT HANDICAP CHASE - We need a horse between 8-11 years old. - 21 runners who were 7 or younger in the last 10 years have produced only one winner in 1994. - Only 3 horses age 12 or over have won any kind of race at Cheltenham since 1980 - Can¡¦t really afford to be out of the handicap, especially when the going is good/firm or faster. Only 2 of the 31 runners trying from out of the handicap have succeeded in 55 years. HAUT CERCY went close last year though. - Need less than 11stone 2 lb¡¦s ¡V Only 2 horses out of 19 have succeeded carrying more than this. - Ignore Pipe/Nicholls runners here ¡V their record in this race is poor. THE FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS - Only 1 of the 67 runners aged older than 9 have won this race in the last 10 years. - Its 34 years since the last 6 year old won. - Only one winner in the last 17 years has carried more than 11 stone, after deducting riders allowances ¡V even he was only carrying 11st 2lb¡¦s. - 8 of the previous 10 winners had been in the first 3 on their previous run. 6 of the last 7 were first or second previously - You need a good amateur jockey. THE PERTEMPS HURDLE FINAL - 28 horses 10 years old or over have managed only one placing between them. - Its 18 years since the last such winner. - Similarly ignore 5 years old and under. There have been 16 runners in the last 10 runnings with no winners. - 6 and 7 year olds have taken the race on 15 of the last 20 occassions. - Only 2 of the last 28 runnings went to those carrying less than 10st 8lbs - 8 of the last 10 winners won on their previous outing - 8 of the last 10 winners had taken breaks of more than 30 days ¡V this is a tough race. - All of the last 10 winners were hold up horses. Difficult to front run. DAY 2 THE R&SA NOVICE HURDLE - 26 out of the last 29 runnings. - Since 1970, the winner has been in the first two on its previous run. - 29 of the last 37 were NH bred. THE R&SA CHASE - Only 2 9 year olds have taken this in the last 39 runnings. Only one has been placed in the last 10 runnings and that was in a small field. - 9 of the last 10 winners have been in the first 5 in the betting. - Ignore anything that has run in the Feltham on Boxing Day or the Reynoldstown in Ascot in February. ¡V No successes from 17. ¡V only 4 placings. - 26 of the last 29 were 1st or 2nd on their last run. - 8 of the last 10 winners had breaks less than 38 days. - Ignore Flat Bred¡¦s ¡V they have a poor record. - French breds have a good record. THE QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE - Ignore older than 10 or younger than 7 years old - 38 of the last 44 runnings have gone to the first 3 in the market. - Its been 24 years since the winner failed to record a placing on its previous run. - 15 of the last 19 winners all won or placed at the previous festival. Two of the remainder had won good chases at Cheltenham outside the festival. - 12 of the last 14 winners had won over 20f. THE CORAL CUP - Avoid 5 year olds ¡V no weight allowance. 47 have tried and failed since 1993. only 1 of these was placed. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. Last year was a better than average race ¡V 17 of 27 runners carried more than 11 stone. - Irish are very strong in this race. - 8 of the last 10 winners had no more than 3 prior runs and the other 2 had 4 runs ¡V had their marks protected. - Hold up horses are favoured ¡V ignore front runners. THE NATIONAL HUNT STEEPLECHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS. - First 6 in betting - aged 7 or more - at least placed last time - leading amateur jockey. MILDMAY OF FLEET - Only one winner of the last 10 carried more than 11 stone to victory. - Martin Pipe is strong in 20f chases here. - 29 out of the last 32 win/place positions have been placed on its previous outing. CHAMPION BUMPER - 5 year olds have won 8 of the 11 runnings with 4 year olds winning twice. - Irish have a strong record. DAY 3 THE TRIUMPH HURDLE - Fillies have won the previous 3 renewals and had 5 of the placings from only 12 runners to start 12/1 or less. - Theres only been one British bred winner of this race in the last 10 years. - Theres only been one NH bred winner of this race in the last 10 years. - French breds are strong THE STAYERS HURDLE - 29 horses aged 9 or older have tried in this and only 2 have won ¡V they were winning for the second time. - Pipes fancied runners (<14/1) are worth looking at. 7 out of 11 of these have either won or placed. - All winners since 1987 finished in the first 4 on their previous outing. THE GOLD CUP - 8 or 9 years old is a bonus - should have won over a minimum of 25f - over a month since last outing - The winner will be called Best Mate THE FOXHUNTERS CHASE - Ignore anything over 10 years old ¡V Since 1990 there has been 1 winner over 10 years old out of 81 runners. - Richard Barber has a good record here ¡V he has provided the winner 4 times out of 9 runners. - Similarly, Caroline Bailey has had a winner and 2 seconds from just 9 runners. - Not since 1989 has a professional stable won the race. - 5 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham, 2 others had previously performed well. - 15 of the last 16 winners had won on their previous outing - Only one winner in recent times had not jumped over fences previously. - Ignore ex- quality handicappers coming down the ranks. THE GRAND ANNUAL - 12 of the last 18 winners carried more than 10st 8lbs. - Market leaders are favoured in this race. - 10 of the last 12 winners were in the first 5 in the betting - 26 of the last 29 winners were no bigger than 10/1 - 14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the first 4 on their previous run - 9 out of the last 10 winners had run within 28 days. - Tony McCoy has had 16 rides in 2 mile chases at the festival and has finished in the first 2 on 11 of those occasions. THE CATHCART - 14 of the last 15 winners were in the first 3 on their previous run. ¡V the exception was a previous winner of the race. - 8 of the last 10 had a break of 5 weeks or more. - First season Novices have taken 7 of the last 10 outings. - 2 French bred 5 year olds have a 100% record, both were trained by Pipe. - 5 year olds have a good record. THE VINCENT O¡¦BRIEN COUNTY HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have won 33 of the last 41 runnings. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. Has only been 3 winners carrying more than this in 30 years ¡V all were exceptional animals. Rooster Booster in 2002, and the other 2 were imperial cup winners from 5 days previously. - 151 horses have failed to win whilst running from out of the handicap since 1980. - Since 1987 only one winner has been out of the first 4 on the previous run. 11 winners since then have been in the first 2 on the previous run. - Winners tend to have run more than 6 times that year. - 4 out of the last 6 winners had been placed at Cheltenham earlier in the season. :drums :drums :drums

[Tulenos]

CHELTENHAM TRENDS Sorry if you know about it but there is a yearly feature @ the Mathematician's (renowned punter, code-breaker and stuff) site, which is a FREE Cheltenham mag called the Punter - it comes in a PDF format (84 pages). Really helpful, read it last year and going to read it this year as well.;)

[Guest abookiesworstnightmare]

lol THE GOLD CUP - 8 or 9 years old is a bonus - should have won over a minimum of 25f - over a month since last outing - The winner will be called Best Mate :lol nice analysis i agree completely :lol

[Tulenos]

CHELTENHAM TRENDS no brainer, in fact. Realistically, there would have to be an act of God to bar this one to win, especially after seemingly acts of God meant scratches to all able to stay on terms, sadly.:(

[Guest bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM TRENDS Horses that qualify in the Supreme Novices hurdle are: Albuhera (1) Brave Inca (2) Cardenas Lacoudal (3) Zum See The winner will come from that 5. :ok My preference is shown above based on Albuhera having course form which is an advatage at Cheltenham.

[Guest bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM TRENDS Arkle winner will come from 1st 5 in the betting:ok I prefer Thisthatandtother as it again has some course form. Ruby Walsh has also tipped it up as his banker;)

[Guest bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM TRENDS Last race on the card - Pertemps final Down to 3 here : Mutineer Keepatem Hidden Bounty with my money going on a tasty Mutineer at around 16/1:ok

[Tulenos]

Re: CHELTENHAM TRENDS www.aboveallodds.com/cheltenham.pdf is another pdf bulletin, this time just 16 pages while The Mathematician's thickie is 84 pages long, but worth the read anyway.;)

[Guest bowles10]

Re: CHELTENHAM TRENDS Hardy Eustace was the 1st horse apart from Paddys Return in 1996 to wear headgear to victory at cheltenham in 75 hurdle races at the festival. onto wednesday card: 1st race: left with the following after checking the trends on this race: Inglis Drever (1) Sadlers wings (2) Sindapour (4) Tighten your belt. (3) I have placed them 1-4, but will be backing all 4 for a return dependant on the prices. 4pm Coral cup: left with: Rosaker (1) Monkerhostin (2) & Redemption (3) (will buck the overall trend if this one wins) Again, I will back all 3 in order 1-3.