'Bank Account' Theory

[FleetFanatic]

I was reading somewhere that if you put £100 a month and get 10% compounded interest, that after 20 years, the £24000 paid in would be worth £76000. This got me thinking, if we treated a bookmakers account like a bank account and aimed for say 15% interest every 30 days, and paid in an extra £100 every 30 days, the first year would look something like this:

MONTH<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />	MONEY IN BANK INCLUDING DEPOSIT FOR MONTH	15% OF BANK	DAILY RATE (15% OF BANK DIVIDED BY 30) – TO NEAREST 10p	NEW BANK AFTER 30 DAYS
JAN	100	15	0.50	115
FEB	215	32.25	1.10	248
MAR	348	25.20	1.80	402
APR	502	75.30	2.60	580
MAY	680	102	3.40	782
JUNE	882	132.30	4.50	1017
JULY	1117	167.55	5.60	1285
AUG	1385	207.75	7	1595
SEPT	1695	254.25	8.50	1950
OCT	2050	307.50	10.30	2359
NOV	2459	368.85	12.30	2828
DEC	2928	439.20	14.70	3369

I've put months but it would, in fact, be 30 day periods. 1200 deposited, with the aim of building up to 3369 with 12 months. What are everybody's ideas on this??? What would be the best way to win 'the daily aim'??? Stop at a winner fav's on horses? Football?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory I dont know about the best way of making your profit but, in terms of LONG term projects, I was once thinking of something similiar. If you started with £500 and made 2% of your starting bank every week(£10) (on average) in a year you'd double your bank.(50 x 2% being 100%) This would give you: Year 1 = £1000 Year 2 = £2000 Year 3 = £4000 Year 4 = £8000 Year 5 = £16,000 Year 6 = £32,000 Year 7 = £64,000 Year 8 = £128,000 Year 9 = £256,000 Year 10 = £512,000 It would take great discipline as its such a slow process but the target of 2% profit a week(half your aim), should be achievable. Im only 25(26 soon:cry ) and Id be more than happy at the thought of having £500,000 in the bank by the time I was 36. I think the key word with any slow long term projects is DISCIPLINE, its all too easy looking to speed it up, especially in the early stages when profits seem small, by picking out bets that are maybe not right. Good luck with anything you decide to go with.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Do you need to make a daily aim?? Rather than looking at making 50p a day it may be better at looking at making £15 a month or £3.25 a week. The problem I see with setting targets over a small period of time is the temptation to chase. If your first bet loses you'll find yourself chasing , looking for bets that day, just to make a profit of 50p. If you set the target as monthly you know you've got all month to find a bet to make up the loss. At £3.25 a week you could go for £10 a week on a 1/3 shot in the footy each weekend. Back 1 goal or more @ 1.1 for £30 5 times during the month( really starting to love that bet). Five winers would give you your 15% and thats without rolling the profits on.

[pinhofap]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory I agre that your idea of a staking plan is good, it is not new, but the problem remains always the same: you need to find value bets. If you could make 1% profit every day and adjusted stakes every day, you bank would grow 3600% in a year. Still, making a consistent profit of 1% each day is very very hard. As for backing 1/3 favourites on football, what about when you lose? You will take a long time to recover, because you have invested a lot to win your target. If backing 25/1 horses gave you more value, this would be a better idea, it's not about the odds (you don't win more the shorter they are...), it's about winning in the long run. The main issue is finding bets that pay off long term, I thinking stopping at a loser is not a good idea in anything because it's just mathematically incorrect, and anyone trying it will ALWAYS lose in the long run. It all comes down to finding value and then studying your results and adjusting your staking plan to maximize profits. Your idea of compound interest is a good way to boost profits, but you need to calculate risk, because you are always on the edge of losing your whole bank if you get greedy and increase your risk level too much. I hope some of this helps and I don't want to sound too negative, but I have gone down this road before on another thread, and after 1 month of good profits, the positive trend stopped, and since my stakes were higher, I lost my profits much faster. Remember that. Apart from that it is a good idea, and I wish you good luck. Pinho

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory I'm wouldn't back 1/3 favourites on the football. Everybody knows the odds have to be better than 1/2 for me or no bet!

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory

Do you need to make a daily aim?? Rather than looking at making 50p a day it may be better at looking at making £15 a month or £3.25 a week. The problem I see with setting targets over a small period of time is the temptation to chase. If your first bet loses you'll find yourself chasing , looking for bets that day, just to make a profit of 50p. If you set the target as monthly you know you've got all month to find a bet to make up the loss. At £3.25 a week you could go for £10 a week on a 1/3 shot in the footy each weekend. Back 1 goal or more @ 1.1 for £30 5 times during the month( really starting to love that bet). Five winers would give you your 15% and thats without rolling the profits on.

Some excellent ideas there! Btw, I was going to continue the grid into further years but I thought I would get some opinions first. :ok Even money shots - if you lose chasing 50p, the next days target would be 50p + 50p (2 days target) plus 50p lost stake = £1.50 - next bet would be £1.50. A second losing day = £3 bet on the 3rd day A third losing day = £5 bet on the 4th day Would have to be a shocking run not to find 1 winner a week from 7 bets, which is surely all it would need?

[Kanga]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Hi FF, Hope this table helps based on 600-650 sequence of bets.

Based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

(%)		Strike Rate	Anticipation of Sequences
	Expected (75% chance)	50:50 (50% chance)	Unlikely (25% chance)	V. Unlikely (
40	10	12	14	20
41	9	12	13	20
42	9	11	13	19
43	9	11	13	19
44	9	11	12	18
45	8	11	12	18
46	8	10	12	17
47	8	10	11	17
48	8	10	11	16
49	8	10	11	16
50	7	9	11	15
51	7	9	10	15
52	7	9	10	15
53	7	9	10	14
54	7	8	10	14
55	6	8	9	14
56	6	8	9	13
57	6	8	9	13
58	6	8	9	13
59	6	8	9	12
60	6	7	8	12

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Hmmmm. Up the target to 5% per week for 4 weeks (20% of bank in a 4-week period), and the figures look even more appealing.

PERIOD (OF 28 DAYS)	MONEY IN BANK	TARGET FOR PERIOD (ROUNDED UP TO £)	WEEKLY (ROUNDED UP TO £)	NEW TARGET BANK
01	£100	£20	£5	£120
02	£220	£44	£11	£264
03	£364	£73	£19	£440
04	£540	£108	£27	£648
05	£748	£150	£38	£900
06	£1000	£200	£50	£1200
07	£1300	£260	£65	£1560
08	£1660	£332	£83	£1992
09	£2092	£419	£105	£2512
10	£2612	£523	£131	£3136
11	£3236	£648	£162	£3884
12	£3984	£797	£200	£4684
13	£4784	£957	£240	£5744
14	£5844	£1170	£293	£7016
15	£7116	£1424	£356	£8540
16	£8640	£1728	£432	£10368
17	£10468	£2094	£524	£12564
18	£12664	£2533	£634	£15200
19	£15300	£3060	£765	£18360
20	£18460	£3692	£923	£22152
21	£22252	£4451	£1113	£26704
22	£26804	£5361	£1341	£32168
23	£32268	£6454	£1614	£38724
24	£38824	£7765	£1942	£46592
25	£46692	£9339	£2335	£56032
26	£56132	£11207	£2802	£67240
27	£67340	£13468	£3367	£80808
28	£80908	£16182	£4046	£97092
29	£97192	£19439	£4860	£116632
30	£116732	£23347	£5837	£140080
31	£140180	£28036	£7009	£168216
32	£168316	£33664	£8416	£201980
33	£202080	£40416	£10104	£242496
34	£242596	£48520	£12130	£291116
35	£291216	£58244	£14561	£349460
36	£349560	£69112	£17478	£419472

Anybody want to be rich in 3 years? :lol Just need to decide on the approach.

[happygooner]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory

Hmmmm. Up the target to 5% per week for 4 weeks (20% of bank in a 4-week period), and the figures look even more appealing.

PERIOD (OF 28 DAYS)	MONEY IN BANK	TARGET FOR PERIOD (ROUNDED UP TO £)	WEEKLY (ROUNDED UP TO £)	NEW TARGET BANK
01	£100	£20	£5	£120
02	£220	£44	£11	£264
03	£364	£73	£19	£440
04	£540	£108	£27	£648
05	£748	£150	£38	£900
06	£1000	£200	£50	£1200
07	£1300	£260	£65	£1560
08	£1660	£332	£83	£1992
09	£2092	£419	£105	£2512
10	£2612	£523	£131	£3136
11	£3236	£648	£162	£3884
12	£3984	£797	£200	£4684
13	£4784	£957	£240	£5744
14	£5844	£1170	£293	£7016
15	£7116	£1424	£356	£8540
16	£8640	£1728	£432	£10368
17	£10468	£2094	£524	£12564
18	£12664	£2533	£634	£15200
19	£15300	£3060	£765	£18360
20	£18460	£3692	£923	£22152
21	£22252	£4451	£1113	£26704
22	£26804	£5361	£1341	£32168
23	£32268	£6454	£1614	£38724
24	£38824	£7765	£1942	£46592
25	£46692	£9339	£2335	£56032
26	£56132	£11207	£2802	£67240
27	£67340	£13468	£3367	£80808
28	£80908	£16182	£4046	£97092
29	£97192	£19439	£4860	£116632
30	£116732	£23347	£5837	£140080
31	£140180	£28036	£7009	£168216
32	£168316	£33664	£8416	£201980
33	£202080	£40416	£10104	£242496
34	£242596	£48520	£12130	£291116
35	£291216	£58244	£14561	£349460
36	£349560	£69112	£17478	£419472

Anybody want to be rich in 3 years? :lol Just need to decide on the approach.

This is the kind of thing I keep thinking of. Sensible staking, with increased percentage staking, building slowly every day. There does seem to be quite a difference of opinion on whether it truly can be done though. Of recent I seem to have a great day where I make between £3-£10.00 (bank at the time was only around £30.00) with most bets coming off (doubles, trebles, singles) and then follow it the next day with an absolute shocker where nothing goes as you would expect and the whole thing just seems entirely random! Take Chelsea & Real Madrid yesterday. WTF???! On the whole would a general voice of opinion be to stay away from doubles, trebles? I was thinking that I might start with a double quite likely to come in, then move up to a treble if that wins, then a 4-fold and so on and so forth. The first loser instantly puts me back to a double. Trouble is the double fails on a surprisingly high amount of attempts. This was where my example of £10.00 winner came in. Fair amount won on a double, then the treble came in giving me even more. Next day I didn't even bother with a 4-fold but instead started on a double again. That lost, as did the next and the next and the next until I finally got a winner after clearing out all of yesterdays profit. I just seem to be perpetually level. Neither down nor up.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory

Take Chelsea & Real Madrid yesterday. WTF???!

Chelsea were away, Real Madrid too short a price. But nobody ever listens to me. ;)

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Sod it. Let's go for the 5% a week. Week 1: to win £5. Stoke to win tonight 11/10 @ bet365. Rounded up to nearest £, £5 staked to return £5.50.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Good luck with this FF. Ill be watching with great interest.

[john_lovell]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory lucky mate! cov have a goal disallowed in the 95min!!!

[happygooner]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory

lucky mate! cov have a goal disallowed in the 95min!!!

Yeah I had money on that too. wondering how much injury time the ref was going to allow. 96 mins before he blew up! I would not have been impressed!!

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory

lucky mate! cov have a goal disallowed in the 95min!!!

Not lucky, as there was obviously a reason why the ref disallowed it. :lol If the same incident has occured in the first minute, you wouldn't call it lucky. 1st bet wins :clap Bank now £105.50.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Really fancy Bury tonight against Wrexham @ 19/20. And Celtic are surely a must @ 2/7 with bet365, when 1/5 elsewhere. So much for discipline! Maybe this should be 'aim to 5% 4 times in a row before recalculating the 5%, with a top up once a month'..... .....hence changing from 'week' to sequence'. Sequence 2: to win £5. Bury to beat Wrexham @ 19/20 bet365 Celtic to beat Falkirk @ 2/7 bet365 Double - stake rounded up to nearest £: £4 staked to win £6.03.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory

Celtic to beat Falkirk @ 2/7 bet365

0-0 on 88 mins :$

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Oh now it's extra-time, they score. :@

[joey barton]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory tell me about it fleet i had charlton and surprise surprise they score 3 minutes into extra time, so annoying!!!:wall

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Maybe I should apply my treble rules here about short prices.

[john_lovell]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory anymore bets to add to this FF?

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Yep need to win £9 now from a bank of £101.50. £9 on Arsenal (Sunday) to beat Liverpool 21/20 totalbet to win £9.45 bank now £92.50

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Arsenal result as hoped. :clap Bank now £110.95. :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Saturday: Gravesend & Northfleet vs Oxford evens @ bet365 (Yes, I know but Oxford are another level to The' Fleet.) £5 to win £5.

[john_lovell]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory any thing to add to still FF?

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory Yep. Just waited for my football trebles to be posted. I'm ready now. After losing last week (you notice how backing against you're own team does you every time?), we need last week's £5, last week's £5 stake and this week's £5 won. So we need to win £15 this week! Bank now £105.95. The value odds in my ratings is Man Utd @ 6/4 to beat Chelsea @ BET365. £10 staked to try and get our £15. Bank now £95.95.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory So to cap off a miserable day, Man Utd are held to a 1-1 draw. 4 weeks gone & the promised £100 top-up is added to the bank. Bank now £195.95. Next bet sees us needing to get a return of £25 plus 5% of the £220 we are supposed to have in the bank (£11) Total 'next target' is therefore £36.

[john_lovell]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory anything during the mid-week football? champions leauge?

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory No, as you've gathered by now. Was tempted to go for Arsenal draw but the old 'being the away team' put me off - doh! wish I had now. Just waiting for the right home team at the right price. If anything pops out this week there's another £11 target to be added, making a target of £47 to win.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: 'Bank Account' Theory So this is week 6: Chelsea to beat Arsenal 3/4 with totalbet. I just can't see anything other than Chelsea in this. £63 on 'em to win £47.25 Bank now £132.95.