Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

Alright aliando ' date=' I like the idea of finding AH's in favour of the team you rate highest. Assuming your ratings are accurate you will find some value bets . I have used the info you have put up to apply your idea to my own ratings and it looks very good indeed .[/quote'] :ok stephen - its very much in its infancy but it seems to be heading the right way. I'm intending to use it as a starting tool, with the aim of adding in other info/stats to get a smaller and hopefully more succesful number of picks

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying less results this week due to FA cup action

Barclays Premiership	predicition	lay h or a	a/h odds favour h or a	difference y=yes
Man City v Newcastle	20	a	a
Chelsea v Watford	26.6	a	a
Everton v Aston Villa	8	a	a
Middlesbrough v West Ham	24	a	a
Portsmouth v Fulham	12.2	a	a
Sheff Utd v Bolton	-10.2	h	h
Wigan v Charlton	18.8	a	a
Blackburn v Man Utd	-9.6	h	h
Reading v Tottenham	8.4	a	h	y
Arsenal v Liverpool	13	a	a
Coca-Cola League Championship
Birmingham v Barnsley	20.2	a	a
Cardiff v Burnley	16.7	a	a
Coventry v Derby	2.8	a	a
Crystal Palace v Stoke	9.4	a	a
Hull v Wolverhampton	-9.9	h	0
Ipswich v Sheff Wed	8.5	a	a
Leeds v Colchester	-3.4	h	a	y
Leicester v Plymouth	-5.3	h	a	y
Luton v QPR	14.8	a	a
Southend v Preston	-13.2	h	h
Sunderland v Southampton	5.7	a	a
West Brom v Norwich	18	a	a
Scottish Premier League
Aberdeen v Motherwell	2.8	a	a
Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock	-3.4	h	0
Hibernian v Inverness CT	0.3	a	a
Rangers v Dunfermline	15	a	a
St Mirren v Celtic	-10	h	h
Bell's Scottish First Div
Gretna v Queen of South	6.2	a	a
Hamilton v Airdrie Utd	8.6	a	a
Livingston v Dundee	1.9	a	a
Bell's Scottish Second Div
Ayr v Alloa	-0.9	h	a	y
Brechin v Raith	-0.8	h	a	y
Cowdenbeath v Forfar	8.1	a	a
Stirling v Morton	0.6	a	h	y
Stranraer v Peterhead	2.2	a	0
Bell's Scottish Third Div
Arbroath v East Stirling	4.5	a	a
Berwick v East Fife	5.6	a	h	y
Elgin v Albion	-2.6	h	a	y
Montrose v Queens Park	5.7	a	0
Stenhousemuir v Dumbarton	5.3	a	a

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying i will now start a paper trial of several staking strategies and will see where it leads - i will also seperate the english and scottish divisions as there seems to be less success north of the border :hope firstly, betting on the AH's where my stats show a difference England start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt reading +0,+0.5 - 1.89 @ betfair colchester +0,+0.5 - 1.98 @ betdaq plymouth +0,+0.5 - 2.00 @ bet365 current bank = 97pts Scotland start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt alloa +0.5 - 2.08 @ bet1128 raith +0.5 - 1.89 @ bet1128 stirling +0,+0.5 - 1.79 @ bet1128 berwick +0,+0.5 - 1.79 @ bet1128 albion +0,+0.5 - 1.81 @ bet1128 current bank = 95pts

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying the accys for the accys i will follow this criteria 0-3 teams rated 20 and above = no accys 4-6 teams rated 20 and above = doubles 7+ teams rated 20 and above = trebles so, for this weekend

Chelsea v Watford	26.6
Middlesbrough v West Ham	24
Birmingham v Barnsley	20.2
Man City v Newcastle	20

England lowest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt birmingham/man city double - 3.22 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts highest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/middlesbro double - 2.57 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts lowest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/birmingham double - 1.75 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts highest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt middlesbro/man city double - 4.73 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts my pick doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt birmingham/man city double - 3.22 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts ___________________________________________________________ lowest 3 ranked trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts highest 3 ranked trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts lowest 3 odds trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts highest 3 odds trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts my pick trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying draw no bet/double chance these will be an accy of all English teams rated 20 and over draw no bet start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt 4 team accy - 2.99 @ bluesq (manc 1.53,chel 1.03,midd 1.67 ,birm 1.14) current bank = 99pts ____________________________________________________________ double chance start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt 4 team accy - 1.83 @ bet365 current bank = 99pts

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying laying laying will be to win 1 pt i'll take the price that is on offer to me at the time rather than attempt to achieve the best price for the paper trial all prices from betfair for simplicity (if i start to use real money then I'll tighten up on the criteria) start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt newcastle 4.00 watford 32.00 west ham 3.50 barnsley 7.80 current bank = 52.7

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying wins/draws straight win or draw on the teams rated 20 or above win start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt man city - 2.13 @ extrabet chelsea - 1.17 @ betfred middlesbro - 2.25 @ vc bet birmingham - 1.53 @ bluesq current bank = 96pts draw start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt man city - 3.25 @ betfred chelsea - 7.00 @ bet365 middlesbro - 3.30 @ expekt birmingham - 4.00 @ bet365 current bank = 96pts

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) gonna try one more - i've not backtested it but wondering how it's pan out criteria - matches where best odds of both teams to win is between 2.00-2.99 inclusive, i will bet either to win or lay the team that my stats analysis suggest bets will be 1pt/lays (simply with betfair odds) to win 1pt i'm gonna just stick to england for now win start bank 100 points lay start bank 100 points bet team to win

Hull v Wolves

2.75

3.40

2.85

wolves to win - 1pt @ betdaq lay opposition

Hull v Wolves

2.75

3.40

2.85

lay hull @ 2.70

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

the accys for the accys i will follow this criteria 0-3 teams rated 20 and above = no accys 4-6 teams rated 20 and above = doubles 7+ teams rated 20 and above = trebles so, for this weekend

Chelsea v Watford	26.6
Middlesbrough v West Ham	24
Birmingham v Barnsley	20.2
Man City v Newcastle	20

England lowest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt birmingham/man city double - 3.22 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts highest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/middlesbro double - 2.57 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts lowest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/birmingham double - 1.75 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts highest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt middlesbro/man city double - 4.73 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts my pick doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt birmingham/man city double - 3.22 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts

England lowest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt birmingham/man city double - 3.22 @ bluesq :@ current bank = 99pts win/loss = 0/1 highest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/middlesbro double - 2.57 @ bluesq :dude current bank = 101.57pts win/loss = 1/0 lowest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/birmingham double - 1.75 @ bluesq :dude current bank = 99pts win/loss = 100.75 highest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt middlesbro/man city double - 4.73 @ bluesq :@ current bank = 99pts win/loss = 0/1 my pick doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt birmingham/man city double - 3.22 @ bluesq current bank = 99pts win/loss = 0/1

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

draw no bet/double chance these will be an accy of all English teams rated 20 and over draw no bet start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt 4 team accy - 2.99 @ bluesq (manc 1.53,chel 1.03,midd 1.67 ,birm 1.14) current bank = 99pts ____________________________________________________________ double chance start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt 4 team accy - 1.83 @ bet365 current bank = 99pts

draw no bet start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt 4 team accy - 2.99 @ bluesq :dude = profit of (manc 1.53,chel 1.03,midd 1.67 ,birm 1.14) current bank = 100.96pts win/loss = 1/0 ____________________________________________________________ double chance start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt 4 team accy - 1.83 @ bet365 current bank = 100.83pts win/loss = 1/0

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

laying laying will be to win 1 pt i'll take the price that is on offer to me at the time rather than attempt to achieve the best price for the paper trial all prices from betfair for simplicity (if i start to use real money then I'll tighten up on the criteria) start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt newcastle 4.00 :dude watford 32.00 :dude west ham 3.50 :dude barnsley 7.80 :dude current bank = 52.7

current bank = 104pts wins/loss = 4/0 interestingly that now means the top rated teams have a record of W15,D8, L1 including the three weeks backtesting (see post above 05-11-2006 22:29) :D

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

wins/draws straight win or draw on the teams rated 20 or above win start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt man city - 2.13 @ extrabet chelsea - 1.17 @ betfred middlesbro - 2.25 @ vc bet birmingham - 1.53 @ bluesq current bank = 96pts draw start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt man city - 3.25 @ betfred chelsea - 7.00 @ bet365 middlesbro - 3.30 @ expekt birmingham - 4.00 @ bet365 current bank = 96pts

win start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt man city - 2.13 @ extrabet :@ chelsea - 1.17 @ betfred :dude middlesbro - 2.25 @ vc bet :dude birmingham - 1.53 @ bluesq :dude current bank = 100.95pts win/loss = 3/1 draw start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt man city - 3.25 @ betfred :dude chelsea - 7.00 @ bet365 :@ middlesbro - 3.30 @ expekt :@ birmingham - 4.00 @ bet365 :@ current bank = 99.25pts win/loss = 1/3

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

gonna try one more - i've not backtested it but wondering how it's pan out criteria - matches where best odds of both teams to win is between 2.00-2.99 inclusive, i will bet either to win or lay the team that my stats analysis suggest bets will be 1pt/lays (simply with betfair odds) to win 1pt i'm gonna just stick to england for now win start bank 100 points lay start bank 100 points bet team to win

Hull v Wolves

2.75

3.40

2.85

wolves to win - 1pt @ betdaq lay opposition

Hull v Wolves

2.75

3.40

2.85

lay hull @ 2.70

bet team to win

Hull v Wolves

2.75

3.40

2.85

wolves to win - 1pt @ betdaq :@ current bank = 99 win/loss = 0/1 lay opposition

Hull v Wolves

2.75

3.40

2.85

lay hull @ 2.70 :@ current bank = 97.3 win/loss = 0/1

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

i will now start a paper trial of several staking strategies and will see where it leads - i will also seperate the english and scottish divisions as there seems to be less success north of the border :hope firstly, betting on the AH's where my stats show a difference England start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt reading +0,+0.5 - 1.89 @ betfair colchester +0,+0.5 - 1.98 @ betdaq plymouth +0,+0.5 - 2.00 @ bet365 current bank = 97pts Scotland start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt alloa +0.5 - 2.08 @ bet1128 raith +0.5 - 1.89 @ bet1128 stirling +0,+0.5 - 1.79 @ bet1128 berwick +0,+0.5 - 1.79 @ bet1128 albion +0,+0.5 - 1.81 @ bet1128 current bank = 95pts

England start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt reading +0,+0.5 - 1.89 @ betfair :dude returns 0.89pts profit colchester +0,+0.5 - 1.98 @ betdaq :@ returns 1pt loss plymouth +0,+0.5 - 2.00 @ bet365 1/2:dude returns 0.50pts profit current bank = 100.39pts win/loss = 2/1 Scotland start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt alloa +0.5 - 2.08 @ bet1128 :dude raith +0.5 - 1.89 @ bet1128 :@ stirling +0,+0.5 - 1.79 @ bet1128 :dude berwick +0,+0.5 - 1.79 @ bet1128 :dude albion +0,+0.5 - 1.81 @ bet1128 :dude current bank = 102.47pts win/loss = 4/1 even the scottish results swung my way :loon

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) for this weekend (scottish first division AH's hopefully to follow)

Barclays Premiership	predicition	lay h or a	a/h odds favour h or a	difference y=yes
Man City v Fulham	10.7	a	a
Arsenal v Newcastle	14	a	a
Chelsea v West Ham	30	a	a
Everton v Bolton	0.5	a	a
Portsmouth v Watford	18.5	a	a
Reading v Charlton	20.7	a	a
Sheff Utd v Man Utd	-13.2	h	h
Middlesbrough v Liverpool	19.3	a	h	y
Wigan v Aston Villa	-1.8	h	a	y
Blackburn v Tottenham	12.2	a	a
Coca-Cola League Championship
Birmingham v Wolverhampton	14.4	a	a
Coventry v Sheff Wed	5.6	a	a
Crystal Palace v Barnsley	3.1	a	a
Hull v Stoke	6.1	a	0
Leeds v Southampton	4.9	a	0
Leicester v Preston	-0.2	h	0
Luton v Derby	0.4	a	0
Southend v Plymouth	-8.4	h	0
Sunderland v Colchester	9	a	a
West Brom v Burnley	-5.1	h	a	y
Ipswich v Norwich	-2.2	h	0
Coca-Cola League One
Blackpool v Huddersfield	1.4	a	a
Bournemouth v Carlisle	9.3	a	a
Brentford v Crewe	12.4	a	0
Brighton v Tranmere	0.3	a	a
Bristol City v Gillingham	24.6	a	a
Chesterfield v Cheltenham	7.8	a	a
Leyton Orient v Yeovil	-7.6	h	0
Millwall v Doncaster	4.1	a	a
Oldham v Bradford	27.8	a	a
Port Vale v Swansea	2	a	a
Rotherham v Nottm Forest	-11.5	h	h
Scunthorpe v Northampton	-9.1	h	a	y
Coca-Cola League Two
Chester v Stockport	10.6	a	a
Accrington Stanley v Hartlepool	8.4	a	a
Barnet v Rochdale	4.9	a	a
Bury v Bristol Rovers	0.3	a	a
Hereford v Walsall	5	a	0
Lincoln City v Darlington	2.3	a	a
Macclesfield v Boston Utd	4.1	a	a
Mansfield v Peterborough	2.8	a	a
Milton Keynes Dons v Shrewsbury	0.8	a	a
Notts County v Wrexham	23.7	a	a
Torquay v Swindon	-14.1	h	h
Wycombe v Grimsby	23.7	a	a
Scottish Premier League
Aberdeen v St Mirren	-1.5	h	a	y
Celtic v Inverness CT	11.9	a	a
Dunfermline v Dundee Utd	1.2	a	0
Kilmarnock v Falkirk	5.5	a	a
Motherwell v Hibernian	2	a	h	y
Hearts v Rangers	6.7	a	0
Bell's Scottish First Div
Airdrie Utd v St Johnstone	-7.8	h
Livingston v Gretna	-7.3	h
Partick v Hamilton	-0.4	h
Queen of South v Dundee	-4.2	h
Ross County v Clyde	2.4	a

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) the asian handicaps England start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.39pts each bet = 1pt middlesbro +0.5 - 1.84 @ betdaq aston villa +0.5 - 1.52 @ william hills burnley +0.5 - 1.96 @ vic chandler northampton +0.5 - 1.99 @ betdaq new bank = 96.39pts settled win/loss = 2/1 (strike rate = 66%) Scotland start bank = 100 points current bank = 102.47pts each bet = 1pt st mirren +0.5,+1 - 1.90 @ betdaq motherwell +0,+0.5 - 1.94 @ bet1128 new bank = 100.47pts settled win/loss = 4/1 (strike rate = 80%)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) the accys for the accys i will follow this criteria 0-3 teams rated 20 and above = no accys 4-6 teams rated 20 and above = doubles 7+ teams rated 20 and above = trebles this weekend's 20 and above rated teams

Chelsea v West Ham	30
Oldham v Bradford	27.8
Bristol City v Gillingham	24.6
Notts County v Wrexham	23.7
Wycombe v Grimsby	23.7
Reading v Charlton	20.7

England lowest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 99pts each bet = 1pt reading/wycombe double - 3.13 @ expekt (wycombe picked over notts county as they show better stats on secondary filters) new bank = 98pts highest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 101.57 each bet = 1pt chelsea/oldham double - 2.40 @ bluesq new bank = 100.57pts lowest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.75 each bet = 1pt chelsea/wycombe double - 2.03 @ expekt new bank = 99.75pts highest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 99pts each bet = 1pt reading/oldham double - 3.82 @ bluesq new bank = 98pts my pick doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 99pts each bet = 1pt bristol city/chelsea double - 2.15 @ expekt new bank = 98pts __________________________________________________ _________ lowest 3 ranked trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts highest 3 ranked trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts lowest 3 odds trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts highest 3 odds trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts my pick trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a current bank = 100pts

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) draw no bet/double chance draw no bet start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.96pts each bet = 1pt 6 team accy - 4.28 @ bet365 (chel 1/66, read 4/11, bris 1/3, old 4/9, notts 2/7, wyc 1/4) new bank = 100.96pts strike rate win/loss = 1/0 __________________________________________________ __________ double chance start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.83pts each bet = 1pt 6 team accy - 2.21 @ bet365 current bank = 100.83pts strike rate win/loss = 1/0

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) laying laying will be to win 1 pt i'll take the price that is on offer to me at the time rather than attempt to achieve the best price for the paper trial all prices from betfair for simplicity (if i start to use real money then I'll tighten up on the criteria) start bank = 100 points current bank = 104pts wins/loss = 4/0 lay west ham @ 21.00 lay charlton @ 4.60 lay gillingham @ 5.30 lay bradford @ 4.50 lay wrexham @ 5.20 lay grimsby @ 6.20 new bank = 57.20

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) wins/draws straight win or draw on the teams rated 20 or above win start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.95pts each bet = 1pt chelsea - 1.25 @ william hill reading - 2.00 @ betdaq bristol city - 1.82 @ betfair oldham - 2.04 @ betfair notts co - 1.84 @ betfair wycombe - 1.72 @ betfair current bank = 94.95pts strike rate win/loss = 3/1 draw start bank = 100 points current bank = 99.25pts each bet = 1pt chelsea - 6.80 @ betfair reading - 3.60 @ betfair bristol city - 3.70 @ betfair oldham - 3.50 @ betfair notts co - 3.60 @ betfair wycombe - 3.80 @ betfair current bank = 93.25pts strike rate win/loss = 1/3

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) close calls criteria - matches where best odds of both teams to win is between 2.00-2.99 inclusive, i will bet either to win or lay the team that my stats analysis suggest bets will be 1pt/lays (simply with betfair odds) to win 1pt i'm gonna just stick to england for now win start bank 100 points current bank = 99pts win/loss = 0/1 lay start bank 100 points current bank = 97.15 win/loss = 0/1 bet team to win hull (2.6 @ expekt) v stoke (2.88) leeds (2.60 @ mansion) v so'ton (2.85) leicester (2.63) v preston (2.75 @ stan james) luton (2.63 @ bluesq) v derby (2.75) southend (2.60) v plymouth (2.70 @ betdaq) bournemouth (2.40 @ expekt) v carlisle (2.88) brentford (2.40 @ bet365) v crewe (2.85) leyton orient (2.75) v yeovil (2.63 @ bet365) port vale (2.45 @ expekt) v swansea (2.88) hereford (2.63 @ betfred) v walsall (2.60) mansfield (2.4 @ totalbet) v peterbro (2.88) torquay (2.88) v swindon (2.45 @ expekt) lay opposition hull (2.6 @ expekt) v stoke (2.88) leeds (2.60 @ mansion) v so'ton (2.85) leicester (2.63) v preston (2.75 @ stan james) luton (2.63 @ bluesq) v derby (2.75) southend (2.60) v plymouth (2.70 @ betdaq) bournemouth (2.40 @ expekt) v carlisle (2.88) brentford (2.40 @ bet365) v crewe (2.85) leyton orient (2.75) v yeovil (2.63 @ bet365) port vale (2.45 @ expekt) v swansea (2.88) hereford (2.63 @ betfred) v walsall (2.60) mansfield (2.4 @ totalbet) v peterbro (2.88) torquay (2.88) v swindon (2.45 @ expekt)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

the accys for the accys i will follow this criteria 0-3 teams rated 20 and above = no accys 4-6 teams rated 20 and above = doubles 7+ teams rated 20 and above = trebles this weekend's 20 and above rated teams

Chelsea v West Ham	30
Oldham v Bradford	27.8
Bristol City v Gillingham	24.6
Notts County v Wrexham	23.7
Wycombe v Grimsby	23.7
Reading v Charlton	20.7

England lowest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 99pts each bet = 1pt reading/wycombe double - 3.13 @ expekt (wycombe picked over notts county as they show better stats on secondary filters) new bank = 98pts highest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 101.57 each bet = 1pt chelsea/oldham double - 2.40 @ bluesq new bank = 100.57pts lowest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.75 each bet = 1pt chelsea/wycombe double - 2.03 @ expekt new bank = 99.75pts highest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 99pts each bet = 1pt reading/oldham double - 3.82 @ bluesq new bank = 98pts my pick doubles start bank = 100 points current bank = 99pts each bet = 1pt bristol city/chelsea double - 2.15 @ expekt new bank = 98pts

:nana 5 winners and 1 draw, although i chose the one draw in two bets over a team that won :wall:cry England lowest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt reading/wycombe double - 3.13 @ expekt :@ (wycombe picked over notts county as they show better stats on secondary filters) new bank = 98pts won/lost = 0/2 highest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/oldham double - 2.40 @ bluesq :nana new bank = 102.97pts won/lost = 2/0 lowest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea/wycombe double - 2.03 @ expekt :@ new bank = 99.75pts won/lost = 1/1 highest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt reading/oldham double - 3.82 @ bluesq :nana new bank = 101.82pts won/lost = 1/1 my pick doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt bristol city/chelsea double - 2.15 @ expekt :nana new bank = 100.15pts won/lost = 1/1

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

draw no bet/double chance draw no bet start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.96pts each bet = 1pt 6 team accy - 4.28 @ bet365 (chel 1/66, read 4/11, bris 1/3, old 4/9, notts 2/7, wyc 1/4) new bank = 100.96pts strike rate win/loss = 1/0 __________________________________________________ __________ double chance start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.83pts each bet = 1pt 6 team accy - 2.21 @ bet365 current bank = 100.83pts strike rate win/loss = 1/0

draw no bet start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt 6 team accy - 4.28 @ bet365 :nana returns 3.43 (chel 1/66, read 4/11, bris 1/3, old 4/9, notts 2/7, wyc 1/4) new bank = 103.39pts strike rate win/loss = 2/0 __________________________________________________ __________ double chance start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.83pts each bet = 1pt 6 team accy - 2.21 @ bet365 :nana current bank = 102.04pts strike rate win/loss = 2/0

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

laying laying will be to win 1 pt i'll take the price that is on offer to me at the time rather than attempt to achieve the best price for the paper trial all prices from betfair for simplicity (if i start to use real money then I'll tighten up on the criteria) start bank = 100 points current bank = 104pts wins/loss = 4/0 lay west ham @ 21.00 lay charlton @ 4.60 lay gillingham @ 5.30 lay bradford @ 4.50 lay wrexham @ 5.20 lay grimsby @ 6.20 new bank = 57.20

6 out of 6 = 6pts profit :nana start bank = 100 points current bank = 110pts wins/loss = 10/0

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

wins/draws straight win or draw on the teams rated 20 or above win start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.95pts each bet = 1pt chelsea - 1.25 @ william hill reading - 2.00 @ betdaq bristol city - 1.82 @ betfair oldham - 2.04 @ betfair notts co - 1.84 @ betfair wycombe - 1.72 @ betfair current bank = 94.95pts strike rate win/loss = 3/1 draw start bank = 100 points current bank = 99.25pts each bet = 1pt chelsea - 6.80 @ betfair reading - 3.60 @ betfair bristol city - 3.70 @ betfair oldham - 3.50 @ betfair notts co - 3.60 @ betfair wycombe - 3.80 @ betfair current bank = 93.25pts strike rate win/loss = 1/3

win start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt chelsea - 1.25 @ william hill :nana reading - 2.00 @ betdaq :nana bristol city - 1.82 @ betfair :nana returns 1.78 oldham - 2.04 @ betfair :nana returns 1.99 notts co - 1.84 @ betfair :nanareturns 1.80 wycombe - 1.72 @ betfair :@ current bank = 103.77pts strike rate win/loss = 8/2 draw start bank = 100 points current bank = 99.25pts each bet = 1pt chelsea - 6.80 @ betfair :@ reading - 3.60 @ betfair :@ bristol city - 3.70 @ betfair :@ oldham - 3.50 @ betfair :@ notts co - 3.60 @ betfair :@ wycombe - 3.80 @ betfair :nana returns 3.66 current bank = 96.91pts strike rate win/loss = 2/8

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

close calls criteria - matches where best odds of both teams to win is between 2.00-2.99 inclusive, i will bet either to win or lay the team that my stats analysis suggest bets will be 1pt/lays (simply with betfair odds) to win 1pt i'm gonna just stick to england for now win start bank 100 points current bank = 99pts win/loss = 0/1 lay start bank 100 points current bank = 97.15 win/loss = 0/1 bet team to win hull (2.6 @ expekt) v stoke (2.88) :@ leeds (2.60 @ mansion) v so'ton (2.85) :@ leicester (2.63) v preston (2.75 @ stan james) :nana luton (2.63 @ bluesq) v derby (2.75) :@ southend (2.60) v plymouth (2.70 @ betdaq) :@ bournemouth (2.40 @ expekt) v carlisle (2.88) :@ brentford (2.40 @ bet365) v crewe (2.85) :@ leyton orient (2.75) v yeovil (2.63 @ bet365) :@ port vale (2.45 @ expekt) v swansea (2.88) :@ hereford (2.63 @ betfred) v walsall (2.60) :@ mansfield (2.4 @ totalbet) v peterbro (2.88) :@ torquay (2.88) v swindon (2.45 @ expekt) :nana

well, with such an overawing lack of success, i'll start afresh next time, but going against my stats :loon - if that dont work, then i'll scrap this bit :lol - dunno if its a 1-off but i notice nearly every winner was the one with the bigger odds....

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

the asian handicaps England start bank = 100 points current bank = 100.39pts each bet = 1pt middlesbro +0.5 - 1.84 @ betdaq :nana aston villa +0.5 - 1.52 @ william hills :nana burnley +0.5 - 1.96 @ vic chandler :@ northampton +0.5 - 1.99 @ betdaq :@ new bank = 96.39pts settled win/loss = 2/1 Scotland start bank = 100 points current bank = 102.47pts each bet = 1pt st mirren +0.5,+1 - 1.90 @ betdaq :@ motherwell +0,+0.5 - 1.94 @ bet1128 :@ new bank = 100.47pts settled win/loss = 4/1

England start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt new bank = 99.75pts settled win/loss = 4/3 Scotland start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt new bank = 100.47pts settled win/loss = 4/3

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) right, the site i actually upload the league tables from hasnt updated so i've had to do a bit of the old fashioned manual inputting, so theres only rating for england this week as i'm working nights and cant be arsed doing the not-so-profitable scottish leagues manually. this weeks ratings...

Barclays Premiership	predicition	lay h or a	a/h odds favour h or a	difference y=yes
Charlton v Everton	7.3	a	a
Aston Villa v Middlesbrough	19.2	a	a
Fulham v Reading	10.2	a	a
Liverpool v Man City	30.7	a	a
West Ham v Sheff Utd	12.8	a	a
Bolton v Arsenal	-4.8	h	h
Newcastle v Portsmouth	-0.1	h	a	y
Tottenham v Wigan	14	a	a
Man Utd v Chelsea	13.3	a	h & a	y
Coca-Cola League Championship
Wolverhampton v Sunderland	19.5	a	a
Barnsley v Ipswich	4.4	a	a
Burnley v Birmingham	-6.7	h	a	y
Colchester v Southend	36.4	a	a
Derby v Leicester	11.5	a	a
Norwich v Hull	19.8	a	a
Plymouth v Leeds	23.8	a	a
Preston v Crystal Palace	20.3	a	a
QPR v Coventry	7.8	a	a
Sheff Wed v Cardiff	1.9	a	h	y
Southampton v Luton	29.9	a	a
Stoke v West Brom	20.1	a	h	y
Coca-Cola League One
Bradford v Bournemouth	22.8	a	a
Carlisle v Port Vale	6.5	a	a
Crewe v Chesterfield	15.4	a	a
Doncaster v Brighton	-6.7	h	a	y
Gillingham v Rotherham	9.9	a	a
Huddersfield v Oldham	18.5	a	a
Northampton v Leyton Orient	7	a	a
Nottm Forest v Millwall	25.3	a	a
Yeovil v Scunthorpe	11.5	a	a
Swansea v Bristol City	10.3	a	a
Coca-Cola League Two
Shrewsbury v Chester	0.6	a	a
Boston Utd v Hereford	7.4	a	0
Darlington v Milton Keynes Dons	2.3	a	a
Grimsby v Accrington Stanley	9.3	a	a
Hartlepool v Wycombe	-4.2	h	0
Peterborough v Torquay	-0.4	h	a	y
Rochdale v Mansfield	5	a	a
Stockport v Macclesfield	19.1	a	a
Swindon v Bury	-4.3	h	a	y
Walsall v Notts County	23.6	a	a
Wrexham v Lincoln City	-8.8	h	h
Bristol Rovers v Barnet	10.7	a	a

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) the asian handicaps England start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt current bank = 99.75pts settled win/loss = 4/3 portsmouth +0.5 - 1.60 @ william hill man utd +0,+0.5 - 1.59 @ 10bet birmingham +0,+0.5 - 1.60 @ 10bet sheff wed +0,+0.5 - 1.84 @ betdaq stoke +0,+0.5 - 1.63 @ 10bet brighton +0,+0.5 - 1.92 @ betdaq torquay +0.5,+1 - 1.99 @ bet1128 bury +0.5 - 2.00 @ betfred new bank = 91.75pts

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things) Originally Posted by aliando the accys for the accys i will follow this criteria 0-3 teams rated 20 and above = no accys 4-6 teams rated 20 and above = doubles 7+ teams rated 20 and above = trebles this weekend's 20 and above rated teams

Colchester v Southend	36.4
Liverpool v Man City	30.7
Southampton v Luton	29.9
Nottm Forest v Millwall	25.3
Plymouth v Leeds	23.8
Walsall v Notts County	23.6
Bradford v Bournemouth	22.8
Preston v Crystal Palace	20.3
Stoke v West Brom	20.1

so, with 9 teams rating over 20, i'll go to the trebles. England lowest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a new bank = 98pts won/lost = 0/2 highest 2 ranked doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a new bank = 102.97pts won/lost = 2/0 lowest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a new bank = 99.75pts won/lost = 1/1 highest 2 odds doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a new bank = 101.82pts won/lost = 1/1 my pick doubles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt n/a new bank = 100.15pts won/lost = 1/1 __________________________________________________________ lowest 3 ranked trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt bradford, preston, stoke treble - 8.14 @ premierbet new bank = 99pts highest 3 ranked trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt colchester, liverpool, southampton - 4.78 @ premierbet new bank = 99pts lowest 3 odds trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt liverpool, forest, preston - 3.89 @ totesport new bank = 99pts highest 3 odds trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt stoke, colchester, plymouth - 3.92 @ premierbet new bank = 99pts my pick trebles start bank = 100 points each bet = 1pt liverpool, forest, southampton - 3.89 @ totesport new bank = 99pts