Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

[aliando]

several weeks learning how to use excel and then creating a system based upon previous results, all summed up in a title that took 3 seconds to think of :lol the actual workings are under wraps but the general plan is simple - take the previous results and put them through a very simplistic mathematical calculation to work out the true values of team performances and then match up the teams. There are several steps which will be taken to arrive at, hopefully, a very successful laying system. Step 1 Compare home v away teams in order to arrive at a match value. A positive value will point towards laying the away side. A negative value will point towards laying the home side. As expected, there will be a lot more qualifiers for away lays than homes. I intend to compare rating/outcome at a later date so will be including all the weekends fixtures and match rating to see if certain values return better outcomes (although at first I'll solely be looking at strike rate for all games due to time constraints) - my thinking here is that where games are 'too close to call' the odds could provide a useful tool whereas the obvious games will have odds that reflect this. Step 2 Using other statistical data from the web (such as home/away tables and form), I will round down my selections. Step 3 The non-systematic approach - My own knowledge will come into play to make the final selections and I'll be looking at the vlaue of the available odds also. To avoid being stung by big prices, I'll keep all lay bets to under odds of 4.00. For now, I'll be simply doing a paper trail and use the lay prices on betfair at the time that i've made my selections, so if this is successful, there'll be room to improve the yield, hopefully. selections will only be for satday/sunday for now and only posted when time allows due to shift work/young baby who doesnt understand daddys time for gambling As this is just hitting the ground running, I'll be looking for ways to tweak it slightly, so some changes may occur along the way. :hope

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying Step 1 Saturday, 14 October 2006 Barclays Premiership Arsenal v Watford 10 Aston Villa v Tottenham 27.7 Liverpool v Blackburn 16.3 Man City v Sheff Utd 34.7 Middlesbrough v Everton 1.0 Portsmouth v West Ham 23.7 Reading v Chelsea, 3.4 Wigan v Man Utd, 14.3 The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Burnley v Hull, 2.8 Crystal Palace v Cardiff 2.4 Ipswich v West Brom 15.6 Leeds v Stoke 15.6 Leicester v Southampton -20.4 Luton v Birmingham, 13.8 Preston v Sunderland 29.2 QPR v Norwich 6.2 Sheff Wed v Barnsley -6.6 Wolverhampton v Colchester 0.4 Coca-Cola Football League One Blackpool v Yeovil -8.8 Bristol City v Crewe 23.5 Cheltenham v Doncaster 4.3 Chesterfield v Swansea 8.2 Gillingham v Nottm Forest -11 Huddersfield v Carlisle 15.3 Millwall v Bournemouth 3.2 Oldham v Leyton Orient 33 Rotherham v Brentford 5.2 Scunthorpe v Brighton 14.9 Coca-Cola Football League Two Barnet v Lincoln City -20.9 Boston Utd v Mansfield 14.6 Hartlepool v Stockport 9.8 Hereford v Darlington 3 Macclesfield v Bury -11.6 Notts County v Bristol Rovers 34.3 Peterborough v Shrewsbury -17 Rochdale v Chester -4 Swindon v Grimsby 23 Torquay v Accrington Stanley 12.7 Walsall v Wycombe 15 Wrexham v Milton Keynes Dons 11.4 Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Dundee Utd v Celtic 12.8 Falkirk v St Mirren -12.3 Kilmarnock v Aberdeen 3.4 Motherwell v Dunfermline 5.4 Rangers v Inverness CT 13.8 Scottish Football League Championship First Division Airdrie Utd v Clyde -6.5 Queen of South v Partick -15.2 Ross County v Dundee -11.7 St Johnstone v Gretna -6 Scottish Football League Championship Second Division Alloa v Cowdenbeath -5.5 Ayr v Stirling -11.3 Brechin v Peterhead -4 Raith v Morton -12.5 Stranraer v Forfar 9.3 Scottish Football League Championship Third Division Albion v Berwick -9.2 Arbroath v Queens Park 5.9 Dumbarton v Montrose 4.5 Elgin v East Stirling -5.3 Stenhousemuir v East Fife 8.9 Sunday, 15 October 2006 Barclays Premiership Newcastle v Bolton -6 The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Plymouth v Derby 5.2 Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Hibernian v Hearts -0.3 either tonight or tomorrow, I'll post up the final selections with the at-the-time betfair prices. edited into first post: selections will only be for satday/sunday for now and only posted when time allows due to shift work/young baby who doesnt understand daddys time for gambling ;)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying Teams To Lay - Round 1 Sheffield United - 5.90 West Ham - 4.00 Newcastle - 2.42 Sheff Wed - 2.30 Blackpool - 2.38 Gillingham - 3.00 Carlisle - 4.20 Bristol Rovers - 5.00 Peterbro - 2.48 Aberdeen - 3.45 Airdrie - 3.20 QoS - 3.45 Ross Co - 3.25 St. Johnstone - 2.68 Ayr - 2.90 Raith - 5.40 Albion - 3.55 these are the final product - will be paper trial for now and prices are taken from betfair as if simply taking the lay price available at the time of going onto their site, so there would be potential for some better prices when done properly further down the line. each win returns 1 point, each loss returns minus-price shown :hope here goes!

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

Step 1 Saturday, 14 October 2006 Barclays Premiership :okArsenal v Watford 10 :okAston Villa v Tottenham 27.7 :okLiverpool v Blackburn 16.3 :okMan City v Sheff Utd 34.7 :okMiddlesbrough v Everton 1.0 :okPortsmouth v West Ham 23.7 :@Reading v Chelsea, 3.4 :@Wigan v Man Utd, 14.3 The Coca-Cola Football League Championship :okBurnley v Hull, 2.8 :@Crystal Palace v Cardiff 2.4:nana :@Ipswich v West Brom 15.6 :@Leeds v Stoke 15.6 :@Leicester v Southampton -20.4 :okLuton v Birmingham, 13.8 :okPreston v Sunderland 29.2 :okQPR v Norwich 6.2 :@Sheff Wed v Barnsley -6.6 :okWolverhampton v Colchester 0.4 Coca-Cola Football League One :okBlackpool v Yeovil -8.8 :okBristol City v Crewe 23.5 :@Cheltenham v Doncaster 4.3 :@Chesterfield v Swansea 8.2 :okGillingham v Nottm Forest -11 :okHuddersfield v Carlisle 15.3 :okMillwall v Bournemouth 3.2 :okOldham v Leyton Orient 33 :okRotherham v Brentford 5.2 :@Scunthorpe v Brighton 14.9 Coca-Cola Football League Two :okBarnet v Lincoln City -20.9 :okBoston Utd v Mansfield 14.6 :okHartlepool v Stockport 9.8 :okHereford v Darlington 3 :okMacclesfield v Bury -11.6 :@Notts County v Bristol Rovers 34.3 :@Peterborough v Shrewsbury -17 :okRochdale v Chester -4 :okSwindon v Grimsby 23 :@Torquay v Accrington Stanley 12.7 :okWalsall v Wycombe 15 :@Wrexham v Milton Keynes Dons 11.4 Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League :@Dundee Utd v Celtic 12.8 :okFalkirk v St Mirren -12.3 :okKilmarnock v Aberdeen 3.4 :okMotherwell v Dunfermline 5.4 :@Rangers v Inverness CT 13.8 Scottish Football League Championship First Division :@Airdrie Utd v Clyde -6.5 :okQueen of South v Partick -15.2 :@Ross County v Dundee -11.7 :okSt Johnstone v Gretna -6 Scottish Football League Championship Second Division :@Alloa v Cowdenbeath -5.5 :okAyr v Stirling -11.3 :@Brechin v Peterhead -4 :okRaith v Morton -12.5 :okStranraer v Forfar 9.3 Scottish Football League Championship Third Division :okAlbion v Berwick -9.2 :@Arbroath v Queens Park 5.9 :okDumbarton v Montrose 4.5 :@Elgin v East Stirling -5.3 :@Stenhousemuir v East Fife 8.9 Sunday, 15 October 2006 Barclays Premiership :okNewcastle v Bolton -6 The Coca-Cola Football League Championship :okPlymouth v Derby 5.2 Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League :okHibernian v Hearts -0.3

39 correct - 23 wrong i will look at segragating the different scores/results but havent time today.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

Teams To Lay - Round 1 :ok Sheffield United - 5.90 :ok West Ham - 4.00 :ok Newcastle - 2.42 :@ Sheff Wed - 2.30 :ok Blackpool - 2.38 :ok Gillingham - 3.00 :ok Carlisle - 4.20 :@ Bristol Rovers - 5.00 :@ Peterbro - 2.48 :ok Aberdeen - 3.45 :@ Airdrie - 3.20 :ok QoS - 3.45 :@ Ross Co - 3.25 :ok St. Johnstone - 2.68 :ok Ayr - 2.90 :ok Raith - 5.40 :ok Albion - 3.55

12 points gained, 16.23 lost plus newcastle currently winning. Not good enough but wont be looking at changing anything until a good few weeks of testing has passed and I get chance to break down the stats.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying edit: above 2 posts edited to incorporate the bolton win.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying i'm too tired from worcester/work to sort this out this weekend - i'd rather leave it unless i'm switched on enough to do it properly. i'll be looking at the AH's with this system too - was thinking about it and it may suit the strike rate better than laying but will have to spend a bit of time checking it out first.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying ok folks - heres the ratings list for this weekends fixtures - the premiership ones will have to wait for now as the file is fcuked, so have had to start the whole division from scratch :wall:wall:wall - unlikely to get it up and running for this weekend but have started and will try :hope also there are AH values here aswell taken from odds comparison to see what the strike rate is like herre too (should be less heavy hits from surprise winners as odds reflect an eveness for the match) - h for home team has plus (part) goal advantage, = for level ball (stake returned if draw) and a for away team has plus (part) goal advantage - i'll be more interested where the handicap favours teams my ratings also do. step one Saturday, 28 October 2006 Barclays Premiership Arsenal v Everton, a Bolton v Man Utd, h Fulham v Wigan, a Liverpool v Aston Villa, a Newcastle v Charlton, a Portsmouth v Reading, a Sheff Utd v Chelsea, h Watford v Tottenham, h The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Barnsley v Coventry, 19.7 a Birmingham v West Brom, -1.0 a Cardiff v Derby, 36.3 a Colchester v Southampton, 0.3 = Crystal Palace v Plymouth, -7.7 a Hull v Sunderland, 3.3 = Leeds v Southend, 7.3 a QPR v Leicester, -3.9 a Stoke v Norwich, 16.4 a Wolverhampton v Sheff Wed, 18.8 a Coca-Cola Football League One Blackpool v Bradford, 1.6 a Bristol City v Doncaster, 11.0 a Cheltenham v Nottm Forest, -18.8 h Chesterfield v Yeovil, -4.1 = Gillingham v Carlisle, 9.8 a Huddersfield v Brighton, 16.2 a Millwall v Port Vale, -6.5 a Northampton v Swansea, -5.9 = Oldham v Brentford, 24.6 a Rotherham v Crewe, 11.8 a Scunthorpe v Leyton Orient, 16.1 a Tranmere v Bournemouth, 27.3 a Coca-Cola Football League Two Barnet v Chester, -1.9 = Boston Utd v Wycombe, 5.5 a Hartlepool v Darlington, -5.4 a Hereford v Accrington Stanley, 12.4 a Macclesfield v Mansfield, -0.4 = Notts County v Bury, 12.5 a Peterborough v Grimsby, 9.2 a Rochdale v Stockport, 6.3 a Swindon v Lincoln City, -9.4 a Torquay v Shrewsbury, -4.7 a Walsall v Milton Keynes Dons, 30.8 a Wrexham v Bristol Rovers, 10.4 a Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Falkirk v Dundee Utd, -7.7 a Hearts v Dunfermline, 14.3 a Rangers v Motherwell, 13.0 a St Mirren v Inverness CT, -8.6 = Scottish Football League Championship First Division Clyde v St Johnstone, -5.0 h Hamilton v Gretna, -6.5 h Partick v Dundee, -1.7 a Queen of South v Livingston, -12.3 h Ross County v Airdrie Utd, -1.7 a Scottish Football League Championship Second Division Alloa v Morton, -6.0 h Ayr v Forfar, 3.2 a Brechin v Stranraer, 0.8 a Peterhead v Cowdenbeath, -2.4 a Raith v Stirling, -9.8 h Scottish Football League Championship Third Division Albion v Montrose, -3.8 h Arbroath v Dumbarton, -0.9 a East Stirling v East Fife, 0.5 h Elgin v Stenhousemuir, -8.7 h Queens Park v Berwick, 3.9 = Sunday, 29 October 2006 Barclays Premiership West Ham v Blackburn, The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Ipswich v Luton, 10.2 a Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Kilmarnock v Celtic, 2.6 h

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying just to clarify with the ah's - this list shows where my ratings give a team as favourite AND the AH is also positive for that team Birmingham v West Brom, -1.0 a Crystal Palace v Plymouth, -7.7 a QPR v Leicester, -3.9 a Millwall v Port Vale, -6.5 a Hartlepool v Darlington, -5.4 a Swindon v Lincoln City, -9.4 a Torquay v Shrewsbury, -4.7 a Falkirk v Dundee Utd, -7.7 a Partick v Dundee, -1.7 a Ross County v Airdrie Utd, -1.7 a Peterhead v Cowdenbeath, -2.4 a Arbroath v Dumbarton, -0.9 a East Stirling v East Fife, 0.5 h i'll again be looking at the strike rate here.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying from the full list, my final lays are norwich - 3.40 birmingham - 2.66 palace - 2.24 qpr - 2.48 chesterfield - 2.66 barnet - 2.82 hartlepool - 2.16 accrington - 3.70 mansfield - 2.92 torquay - 2.68 hamilton - 3.70 raith - 3.95* albion 2.78 (*the bet on price for raith was 3.05 which means that a much lower price may be obtained but this is simply a paper trial and I'm concentrating more on the strike rate at the mo)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying *edited into origianl post* To avoid being stung by big prices, I'll keep all lay bets to under odds of 4.00.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

just to clarify with the ah's - this list shows where my ratings give a team as favourite AND the AH is also positive for that team Birmingham v West Brom, -1.0 a Crystal Palace v Plymouth, -7.7 a QPR v Leicester, -3.9 a Millwall v Port Vale, -6.5 a Hartlepool v Darlington, -5.4 a Swindon v Lincoln City, -9.4 a Torquay v Shrewsbury, -4.7 a Falkirk v Dundee Utd, -7.7 a Partick v Dundee, -1.7 a Ross County v Airdrie Utd, -1.7 a Peterhead v Cowdenbeath, -2.4 a Arbroath v Dumbarton, -0.9 a East Stirling v East Fife, 0.5 h i'll again be looking at the strike rate here.

from this list my final choices are plymouth +0.5 1.82 wba +0.5 1.49 leicester +0.5 1.56 darlington +0.5 1.69 shrewsbury +0,+0.5 1.74 east stirling +1 2.10 (*with bet365 as market not available on betfair) again, this'll be a paper trial to see what the strike rate is like.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

ok folks - heres the ratings list for this weekends fixtures - the premiership ones will have to wait for now as the file is fcuked, so have had to start the whole division from scratch :wall:wall:wall - unlikely to get it up and running for this weekend but have started and will try :hope also there are AH values here aswell taken from odds comparison to see what the strike rate is like herre too (should be less heavy hits from surprise winners as odds reflect an eveness for the match) - h for home team has plus (part) goal advantage, = for level ball (stake returned if draw) and a for away team has plus (part) goal advantage - i'll be more interested where the handicap favours teams my ratings also do. step one Saturday, 28 October 2006 Barclays Premiership Arsenal v Everton, a Bolton v Man Utd, h Fulham v Wigan, a Liverpool v Aston Villa, a Newcastle v Charlton, a Portsmouth v Reading, a Sheff Utd v Chelsea, h Watford v Tottenham, h The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Barnsley v Coventry, 19.7 a :@ Birmingham v West Brom, -1.0 a :@ Cardiff v Derby, 36.3 a :dude Colchester v Southampton, 0.3 = :dude Crystal Palace v Plymouth, -7.7 a :dude Hull v Sunderland, 3.3 = :@ Leeds v Southend, 7.3 a :dude QPR v Leicester, -3.9 a :dude Stoke v Norwich, 16.4 a :dude Wolverhampton v Sheff Wed, 18.8 a :dude Coca-Cola Football League One Blackpool v Bradford, 1.6 a :dude Bristol City v Doncaster, 11.0 a :dude Cheltenham v Nottm Forest, -18.8 h :dude Chesterfield v Yeovil, -4.1 = :dude Gillingham v Carlisle, 9.8 a :dude Huddersfield v Brighton, 16.2 a :@ Millwall v Port Vale, -6.5 a :dude Northampton v Swansea, -5.9 = :@ Oldham v Brentford, 24.6 a :dude Rotherham v Crewe, 11.8 a :dude Scunthorpe v Leyton Orient, 16.1 a :dude Tranmere v Bournemouth, 27.3 a :dude Coca-Cola Football League Two Barnet v Chester, -1.9 = :@ Boston Utd v Wycombe, 5.5 a :@ Hartlepool v Darlington, -5.4 a :dude Hereford v Accrington Stanley, 12.4 a :dude Macclesfield v Mansfield, -0.4 = :dude Notts County v Bury, 12.5 a :@ Peterborough v Grimsby, 9.2 a :dude Rochdale v Stockport, 6.3 a :@ Swindon v Lincoln City, -9.4 a :dude Torquay v Shrewsbury, -4.7 a :dude Walsall v Milton Keynes Dons, 30.8 a :dude Wrexham v Bristol Rovers, 10.4 a :dude Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Falkirk v Dundee Utd, -7.7 a :@ Hearts v Dunfermline, 14.3 a :dude Rangers v Motherwell, 13.0 a :dude St Mirren v Inverness CT, -8.6 = :dude Scottish Football League Championship First Division Clyde v St Johnstone, -5.0 h :@ Hamilton v Gretna, -6.5 h :@ Partick v Dundee, -1.7 a :@ Queen of South v Livingston, -12.3 h :@ Ross County v Airdrie Utd, -1.7 a :@ Scottish Football League Championship Second Division Alloa v Morton, -6.0 h :@ Ayr v Forfar, 3.2 a :dude Brechin v Stranraer, 0.8 a :dude Peterhead v Cowdenbeath, -2.4 a :@ Raith v Stirling, -9.8 h :dude Scottish Football League Championship Third Division Albion v Montrose, -3.8 h :@ Arbroath v Dumbarton, -0.9 a :dude East Stirling v East Fife, 0.5 h :@ Elgin v Stenhousemuir, -8.7 h :@ Queens Park v Berwick, 3.9 = :dude Sunday, 29 October 2006 Barclays Premiership West Ham v Blackburn, The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Ipswich v Luton, 10.2 a :dude Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Kilmarnock v Celtic, 2.6 h :@

overall 34 correct lays, 21 wrong at a quick glance i notice that the english leagues have stats of 25 right, to just 9 wrong so will keep an eye on the scottish leagues as perhaps the system does not suit smaller leagues as well (or it just may be an anomaly)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

just to clarify with the ah's - this list shows where my ratings give a team as favourite AND the AH is also positive for that team :@Birmingham v West Brom, -1.0 a :dudeCrystal Palace v Plymouth, -7.7 a :dudeQPR v Leicester, -3.9 a :dudeMillwall v Port Vale, -6.5 a :dudeHartlepool v Darlington, -5.4 a :dudeSwindon v Lincoln City, -9.4 a :dudeTorquay v Shrewsbury, -4.7 a :@Falkirk v Dundee Utd, -7.7 a :@Partick v Dundee, -1.7 a :@Ross County v Airdrie Utd, -1.7 a :@Peterhead v Cowdenbeath, -2.4 a :dudeArbroath v Dumbarton, -0.9 a :@East Stirling v East Fife, 0.5 h i'll again be looking at the strike rate here.

7 right to 6 wrong, although again the scottish results drag down the result. english games only returns stats of 6 right, 1 wrong :eek :hope

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

from this list my final choices are :dude plymouth +0.5 1.82 :@ wba +0.5 1.49 :dude leicester +0.5 1.56 :dude darlington +0.5 1.69 :dude shrewsbury +0,+0.5 1.74 :@ east stirling +1 2.10 (*with bet365 as market not available on betfair) again, this'll be a paper trial to see what the strike rate is like.

from a 1 point stake, this would've returned the following plymouth = +0.82 wba = -1 leicester = +0.56 darlington = +0.69 shrewsbury = +0.37 east stirling = -1 total return = +0.44, 7% yield

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

from the full list, my final lays are :dude norwich - 3.40 :@ birmingham - 2.66 :dude palace - 2.24 :dude qpr - 2.48 :dude chesterfield - 2.66 :@ barnet - 2.82 :dude hartlepool - 2.16 :dude accrington - 3.70 :@ mansfield - 2.92 *** :dude torquay - 2.68 :@ hamilton - 3.70 :@ raith - 3.95* :@ albion 2.78 (*the bet on price for raith was 3.05 which means that a much lower price may be obtained but this is simply a paper trial and I'm concentrating more on the strike rate at the mo)

again scottish results pissing on my chips profit = 7pts loss = 18.83 overall loss = 11.83pts english results only show a 2.4pt loss *** (:unsurenot sure if this should've been a lay of macclesfield as there was a return of -0.4 indicating a leaning towards the away side - note to self - fcuking concentrate! :wall)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying still very early days and i believe that my system should always be more profitable in the latter half of the season as its based on previous reults and often teams do not settle early in the season which can upset the results returned. early thoughts; -keep an eye on the english/scottish results separately to ascertain whether this week has been a strange one or whether the system leans towards bigger leagues -keep an eye on the AHs which may return a better investment than the laying (due to the potentially high losses on some matches)

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying onto this weeknd and i've redone the premiership database - hopefully if it works, the layout should be a little easier on the eye

Saturday, 04 November 2006	predicition	lay h or a	a/h odds favour h or a	difference y=yes
Barclays Premiership
Bolton v Wigan, 15:00	12.4	a	a
Charlton v Man City, 15:00	13.6	a	a
Fulham v Everton, 12:45	-6.2	h	h
Liverpool v Reading, 15:00	28.4	a	a
Man Utd v Portsmouth, 15:00	18.6	a	a
Newcastle v Sheff Utd, 17:15	10.8	a	a
Watford v Middlesbrough, 15:00	10.3	a	a
The Coca-Cola Football League Championship
Barnsley v Leeds, 15:00	14.3	a	0
Burnley v Ipswich, 15:00	2.3	a	a
Colchester v Cardiff, 15:00	5.6	a	h y
Derby v West Brom, 15:00	-5.8	h	0
Norwich v Sunderland, 15:00	33	a	a
Plymouth v Birmingham, 15:00	0.4	a	a
Preston v Luton, 15:00	31.1	a	a
QPR v Crystal Palace, 15:00	-7.3	h	a	y
Sheff Wed v Leicester, 15:00	-0.5	h	a	y
Southampton v Hull, 15:00	38.1	a	a
Wolverhampton v Southend, 15:00	31.9	a	a
Coca-Cola Football League One
Bradford v Brighton, 15:00	7.1	a	a
Carlisle v Rotherham, 15:00	8.2	a	a
Cheltenham v Oldham, 15:00	-0.1	h	0
Crewe v Port Vale, 15:00	-0.9	h	a	y
Doncaster v Leyton Orient, 15:00	13.3	a	a
Gillingham v Chesterfield, 15:00	15.6	a	a
Huddersfield v Scunthorpe, 15:00	7.4	a	a
Northampton v Blackpool, 15:00	-5.1	h	a	y
Nottm Forest v Brentford, 15:00	22.3	a	a
Yeovil v Bristol City, 15:00	13.6	a	0
Coca-Cola Football League Two
Boston Utd v Notts County, 15:00	4.5	a	0
Bristol Rovers v Mansfield, 15:00	16.3	a	a
Grimsby v Milton Keynes Dons, 15:00	4.7	a	0
Hartlepool v Barnet, 15:00	12.5	a	a
Peterborough v Accrington Stanley, 15:00	1.9	a	a
Rochdale v Bury, 15:00	-16.3	h	0
Shrewsbury v Wycombe, 15:00	-1.9	h	0
Stockport v Lincoln City, 15:00	-24.1	h	h
Swindon v Hereford, 15:00	14.4	a	a
Walsall v Torquay, 15:00	32	a	a
Wrexham v Macclesfield, 15:00	21.2	a	a

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League
Celtic v Hearts, 15:00	10.1	a	a
Dunfermline v Falkirk, 15:00	2.6	a	0
Hibernian v Kilmarnock, 15:00	3.1	a	a
Motherwell v St Mirren, 15:00	-7.6	h	a	y
Scottish Football League Championship First Division
Airdrie Utd v Livingston, 15:00	-5.7	h	h
Clyde v Hamilton, 15:00	2	a	0
Dundee v Gretna, 15:00	-5.9	h	h
Queen of South v Ross County, 15:00	1.1	a	h	y
St Johnstone v Partick, 15:00	-3.9	h	a	y
Scottish Football League Championship Second Division
Cowdenbeath v Raith, 15:00	2	a	a
Forfar v Brechin, 15:00	-1	h	h
Morton v Peterhead, 15:00	7.7	a	a
Stirling v Alloa, 15:00	5.1	a	a
Stranraer v Ayr, 15:00	-7.3	h	h
Scottish Football League Championship Third Division
Dumbarton v Berwick, 15:00	2.2	a	a
East Fife v Elgin, 15:00	19.6	a	a
Montrose v Arbroath, 15:00	3.2	a	0
Queens Park v Albion, 15:00	8	a	a
Stenhousemuir v East Stirling, 15:00	9.2	a	a

Sunday, 05 November 2006
Barclays Premiership
Aston Villa v Blackburn, 14:00	10.6	a	a
Tottenham v Chelsea, 16:00	-2.6	h	h
West Ham v Arsenal, 13:30	-16.3	h	h
Nationwide Conference
York v Altrincham, 15:00
Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League
Dundee Utd v Rangers, 14:00	-6.7	h	h

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying final list of lays and at-time-of-writing prices on betfair spurs price too big west ham price too big sunderland 3.40 luton price too big qpr 2.66 southend price too big crewe 2.40 orient price too big scunthorpe 3.20 brentford price too big mansfield 3.40 accrington price too big shrewsbury 2.70 torquay price too big macclesfield price too big hearts price too big airdrie 3.35

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying final list of ah's where my ratings show positive score towards the team with plus 0.5 goals head start crystal palace +0/+0.5 1.77 port vale +0/+0.5 1.95

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

onto this weeknd and i've redone the premiership database - hopefully if it works, the layout should be a little easier on the eye

Saturday, 04 November 2006	predicition	lay h or a	a/h odds favour h or a	difference y=yes
Barclays Premiership
Bolton v Wigan, 15:00	12.4	a:@	a
Charlton v Man City, 15:00	13.6	a:dude	a
Fulham v Everton, 12:45	-6.2	h:@	h
Liverpool v Reading, 15:00	28.4	a:dude	a
Man Utd v Portsmouth, 15:00	18.6	a:dude	a
Newcastle v Sheff Utd, 17:15	10.8	a:@	a
Watford v Middlesbrough, 15:00	10.3	a:dude	a
The Coca-Cola Football League Championship
Barnsley v Leeds, 15:00	14.3	a:dude	0
Burnley v Ipswich, 15:00	2.3	a:dude	a
Colchester v Cardiff, 15:00	5.6	a:dude	h y
Derby v West Brom, 15:00	-5.8	h:@	0
Norwich v Sunderland, 15:00	33	a:dude	a
Plymouth v Birmingham, 15:00	0.4	a:@	a
Preston v Luton, 15:00	31.1	a:dude	a
QPR v Crystal Palace, 15:00	-7.3	h:@	a	y
Sheff Wed v Leicester, 15:00	-0.5	h:@	a	y
Southampton v Hull, 15:00	38.1	a:dude	a
Wolverhampton v Southend, 15:00	31.9	a:dude	a
Coca-Cola Football League One
Bradford v Brighton, 15:00	7.1	a:@	a
Carlisle v Rotherham, 15:00	8.2	a:dude	a
Cheltenham v Oldham, 15:00	-0.1	h:dude	0
Crewe v Port Vale, 15:00	-0.9	h:@	a	y
Doncaster v Leyton Orient, 15:00	13.3	a:dude	a
Gillingham v Chesterfield, 15:00	15.6	a:dude	a
Huddersfield v Scunthorpe, 15:00	7.4	a:dude	a
Northampton v Blackpool, 15:00	-5.1	h:dude	a	y
Nottm Forest v Brentford, 15:00	22.3	a:dude	a
Yeovil v Bristol City, 15:00	13.6	a:dude	0
Coca-Cola Football League Two
Boston Utd v Notts County, 15:00	4.5	a:dude	0
Bristol Rovers v Mansfield, 15:00	16.3	a:dude	a
Grimsby v Milton Keynes Dons, 15:00	4.7	a:@	0
Hartlepool v Barnet, 15:00	12.5	a:@	a
Peterborough v Accrington Stanley, 15:00	1.9	a:dude	a
Rochdale v Bury, 15:00	-16.3	h:dude	0
Shrewsbury v Wycombe, 15:00	-1.9	h:dude	0
Stockport v Lincoln City, 15:00	-24.1	h:@	h
Swindon v Hereford, 15:00	14.4	a:@	a
Walsall v Torquay, 15:00	32	a:dude	a
Wrexham v Macclesfield, 15:00	21.2	a:dude	a

from the english 3.00 kick offs 26 right and 11 wrong

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League
Celtic v Hearts, 15:00	10.1	a:dude	a
Dunfermline v Falkirk, 15:00	2.6	a:@	0
Hibernian v Kilmarnock, 15:00	3.1	a:dude	a
Motherwell v St Mirren, 15:00	-7.6	h:dude	a	y
Scottish Football League Championship First Division
Airdrie Utd v Livingston, 15:00	-5.7	h:dude	h
Clyde v Hamilton, 15:00	2	a:dude	0
Dundee v Gretna, 15:00	-5.9	h:dude	h
Queen of South v Ross County, 15:00	1.1	a:dude	h	y
St Johnstone v Partick, 15:00	-3.9	h:@	a	y
Scottish Football League Championship Second Division
Cowdenbeath v Raith, 15:00	2	a:@	a
Forfar v Brechin, 15:00	-1	h:dude	h
Morton v Peterhead, 15:00	7.7	a:dude	a
Stirling v Alloa, 15:00	5.1	a:dude	a
Stranraer v Ayr, 15:00	-7.3	h:dude	h
Scottish Football League Championship Third Division
Dumbarton v Berwick, 15:00	2.2	a:dude	a
East Fife v Elgin, 15:00	19.6	a:@	a
Montrose v Arbroath, 15:00	3.2	a:@	0
Queens Park v Albion, 15:00	8	a:dude	a
Stenhousemuir v East Stirling, 15:00	9.2	a:dude	a

14 winners and 5 wrong

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

final list of lays and at-time-of-writing prices on betfair spurs price too big west ham price too big sunderland 3.40 :dude luton price too big :eyes qpr 2.66 :@ southend price too big :eyes crewe 2.40 :@ orient price too big :eyes scunthorpe 3.20 :dude brentford price too big :eyes mansfield 3.40 :dude accrington price too big :eyes shrewsbury 2.70 :dude torquay price too big :eyes macclesfield price too big :eyes hearts price too big :eyes airdrie 3.35 :dude

5 points profit, 5.06 points lost :\ had i taken the riskier bets, they'd have paid off this week.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

final list of ah's where my ratings show positive score towards the team with plus 0.5 goals head start crystal palace +0/+0.5 1.77 port vale +0/+0.5 1.95

both were looking good but fell :@

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying

results tracking epl ec e1 e2 sp s1 s2 s3 total lays won 11 21 25 23 10 6 10 6 total lays lost 5 12 7 12 5 8 5 9 away lays won 10 19 18 14 6 2 5 5 away lays lost 4 6 5 9 4 1 5 home lays won 1 2 7 9 4 4 5 2 home lays lost 1 6 2 3 1 8 4 3 away lay up to +4.99 won 1 4 2 3 2 2 2 3 home team actually won game 1 4 2 1 1 2 2 3 away lay up to +4.99 lost 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 away lay up to +9.99 won 4 4 2 1 3 2 home team actually won game 3 2 1 3 2 away lay up to +9.99 lost 2 2 2 away lay up to +14.99 won 3 3 4 3 3 home team actually won game 3 3 3 2 1 away lay up to +14.99 lost 3 1 5 2 away lay up to +19.99 won 2 2 3 2 home team actually won game 1 1 3 2 away lay up to +19.99 lost 3 1 1 away lay up to +24.99 won 1 3 2 home team actually won game 1 3 1 away lay up to +24.99 lost away lay up to +29.99 won 2 1 1 home team actually won game 1 1 1 away lay up to +29.99 lost away lay +30 and above won 1 5 1 2 home team actually won game 3 1 away lay +30 and above lost 1 home lay up to -4.99 won 1 2 4 1 1 1 away team actually won game 1 1 1 home lay up to -4.99 lost 2 1 1 3 2 1 home lay up to -9.99 won 1 1 3 2 2 3 2 1 away team actually won game 1 1 1 2 2 1 home lay up to -9.99 lost 1 3 1 1 3 2 2 home lay up to -14.99 won 1 1 1 2 away team actually won game 1 1 1 home lay up to -14.99 lost 2 home lay -15 and above won 1 2 1 away team actually won game 1 2 1 home lay -15 and above lost 1 2

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying i've got the results tracking going to look at whether it'd be worth dumping the lays and going for straight wins - although there is a decent strike rate with the lays, it does not get reflected in the profits due to the high prices of losses from lays. i'll keep a track of which divisions are more suited to laying and which to the straight wins for example looking at results returning a home advantage of under 5points, league 2 shows 3 winning lays although only one of these was the home team winning, the other 2 were draws. In contrast, for the same set of results in the championship, there were 4 winning lays, all of which were home wins and would have returned much higher dividends for the straight win. obvioulsy its much too early to be drawing conclusions, but plenty of food for thought.

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying i havent delved too deeply into it as yet but i had a look at the results for the english team returning +20 and above scores over the three weeks

overall top scores		england 20+
team to w/d	score	result
man city	34.7	d
notts county	34.3	a
oldham	33	d
preston	29.2	h
villa	27.7	d
portsmouth	23.7	h
bristol city	23.5	h
swindon	23	h
	score	result
cardiff	36.3	d
walsall	30.8	d
tranmere	27.3	h
oldham	24.6	h
	score	result
southampton	38.1	d
norwich	33	h
walsall	32	h
wolves	31.9	h
preston	31.1	h
liverpool	28.4	h
forest	22.3	h
wrexham	21.2	d

just one loss so far - also gives 12 home wins from 20 although not too sure what the odds would have been - some potential though :hope

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying right - 've been to betbase and collected some odds and chucked together some potential staking plans to test the above results - the figures directly under ss1, ss2 etc are the total profit/loss for that staking strategy

overall top scores		england 20+
team to w/d	score	result	h/d odds of	h odds lost	ss1	ss2	ss3	ss4	ss5	ss6
			winning bet		0.97	3.47	2.96	14.74	-3.00	0.97
man city	34.7	d	3.44	1.67	-1.00	2.44	0.22	1.00	-1.00	-1.00
notts county	34.3	a	n/a	1.75	-1.00	-1.00	-1.50	-4.26
oldham	33	d	3.48	1.59	-1.00	2.48	0.24	1.00
preston	29.2	h	2.19		1.19	-1.00	0.69	1.00
villa	27.7	d	3.15	2.23	-1.00	2.15	0.11	1.00
portsmouth	23.7	h	1.93		0.93	-1.00	0.43	1.00
bristol city	23.5	h	1.80		0.80	-1.00	0.30	1.00
swindon	23	h	1.65		0.65	-1.00	0.15	1.00
	score	result
cardiff	36.3	d	3.33	1.70	-1.00	2.33	0.16	1.00	-1.00	-1.00
walsall	30.8	d	3.28	1.80	-1.00	2.28	0.14	1.00
tranmere	27.3	h	1.69		0.69	-1.00	0.19	1.00
oldham	24.6	h	1.84		0.84	-1.00	0.34	1.00
	score	result
southampton	38.1	d	3.47	1.59	-1.00	2.47	0.26	1.00	-1.00	2.97
norwich	33	h	2.30		1.30	-1.00	0.80	1.00
walsall	32	h	1.52		0.52	-1.00	0.02	1.00
wolves	31.9	h	1.62		0.62	-1.00	0.12	1.00
preston	31.1	h	1.63		0.63	-1.00	0.13	1.00
liverpool	28.4	h	1.34		0.34	-1.00	0.00	1.00
forest	22.3	h	1.46		0.46	-1.00	0.00	1.00
wrexham	21.2	d	3.32	1.74	-1.00	2.32	0.16	1.00

ss1 = straight home win, 1pt

ss2 = straight draw, 1pt

ss3 = 1pt home win, 0.5pt draw (if h>1.50)

ss4 = lay to win 1pt

ss5 = best 3 odds, home win treble, 1pt

ss6 = lowest 3 odds, home win treble, 1pt

what i will say is that betbase only gives the best odds for previous games, so profits may not be as good in reality

[Stephen]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying Alright aliando , I like the idea of finding AH's in favour of the team you rate highest. Assuming your ratings are accurate you will find some value bets . I have used the info you have put up to apply your idea to my own ratings and it looks very good indeed .