working out the value on odds to lay a horse at

[aliando]

? i'm gonna start looking at the laying game this season, both on the footy and the horses. my knowledge is much better on the footy but when it comes to the horses, i dont have the background knowledge that some of my learned friends here have and would like to tap into your thinking. I'm looking into a few things at the moment and would like to get an understanding of what odds to look at once i've chosen my donkeys. Ideally, I'll be looking to lay the smaller price horses/favs rather than the three-legged no-hopers. Any thoughts gratefully accepted and i also appreciate the use of easy-to-understand-cos-i'm-not-to-bright-english :D thanks :ok

[THE % MAN]

Re: working out the value on odds to lay a horse at

? Ideally, I'll be looking to lay the smaller price horses/favs

I would be bit concerned if you were laying short price Favs in NOVICE hurdles as Odds on in these type of races as between 64 to 78% winning depending on their SP and above 40% WIN UP TO 2/1.Also the overall strike rate of Favs over the jumps is a lot higher than those on the flat. Thiers no doubt we have some of the best Lay threads on the net and although I do not Lay horses myself I just thought this may be of some interest to you

[aliando]

Re: working out the value on odds to lay a horse at cheers % man :ok what i'm sttarting to do is start to look at stats which will hopefully throw up horses to concentrate on and then look at the horse in particular and apply my own parameters that i examine for possible success and then decide from there to go ahead or not. I believe i can get a decent selection of horses that should not win but often the price will reflect this. If i find a horse i do not think will win but has a price of say 4.00 on the exchanges at that time, what would layers here look at to decide whether this is value or not. Once i get to this stage, that i have worked out the value of the lay, i will place it on betfair and only take the price i want - i'd rather risk not being matched than pushing my stakes up. hope this makes sense.

[aliando]

Re: working out the value on odds to lay a horse at *bump* ok then folks, my trial run of the lay down and die thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?p=734232&highlight=betfair#post734232 is showing decent results and whilst i wont be putting real money down for another 6 weeks or so, I'd really like to get some ideas here if possible. the plan being, i've picked a horse from a race that i want to lay, but how do i tell what price it is worth laying at?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: working out the value on odds to lay a horse at Surely its just the same as choosing what price to back a horse at. Determine what you think is the fairprice and then lay anything shorter.

[aliando]

Re: working out the value on odds to lay a horse at

Surely its just the same as choosing what price to back a horse at. Determine what you think is the fairprice and then lay anything shorter.

:$ perhaps i should back up the question a little then :lol what do you look for when you price up a horse? How do you decide what is value or not?

[BillyHills]

Re: working out the value on odds to lay a horse at Aliando, purely my thoughts mate; Its fairly easy to spot bad value in horse racing in most respects, but just because there bad value it doesnt mean they wont win. Any top trainer/jockey combos seem to be a couple of points shorter than they should be, Nicholls/Walsh for example, its criminal the odds they start sometimes compared to what the horse has achieved, the obvious weight of money around the country push the price down. The secret is fishing out those that are beatable, i mean Ruby may be riding one at 1/2 that should have been about Evens but because of the lack of opposition it will still probrably win by 10 lengths, it depends if you want to just lay poor value horses knowing that at the end of the day you'll get your share beaten or put much more work in and trawl through the form book and oppose the ones that you think definitely wont win. The first group tend to just lay horses thrown up from various systems, like fav's in handicaps below 3/1, or fav's in 5f flat races as they can depend on draw and trouble in running, you get what i mean, it doesnt take long to sort out your bets and they are selected for you, lots of people prefer this because the discipline is easier to follow too. The second group take it more personally, they watch races noting down things for the future, read the form book inside out, check the going, note jockey bookings etc etc.. Instantly they will know and recongnise if a horse is beatable or at what price it becomes a good 'lay'. Personally i tend to go through the cards the night before and fairly quicky identify half a dozen races that may qualify for 'layable' selection. This usually follows the criteria of a race which has a fairly short price fav or a race that has 3 horses under 5/1 or races where horses are fav's running with a penalty and races where the RPR is quite close between several runners. I then go through these in more detail and finally come up with my selections. In your question you ask "what do you look for when you price up a horse? How do you decide what is value or not?" To me this doesnt matter when laying, i like to find value when backing a horse but if i think its going to get beat then i just want to lay it at the shortest price possible, they may be a limit where i wouldnt want to get involved because of the liability but in general i wouldnt be looking at 10/1 shots in the selection process anyway. For example if a horse was 7/4 in the RPost at night and i was sure about it getting beat and then when i go on betfair its 5/2, why would i suddenly not want to lay it? You can get too hung up on prices sometimes in my opinion, if you find a good process that works i say follow it, let the backers worry about the price. Set yourself a limit, say 5/1 and stick to that if you need a rule to follow. Will follow with interest mate, seriously thinking of laying more as i was saying to Jack the other day, think you need to be at the PC in the afternoon to get the most out of it and i dont like doing that, so i end up taking or laying bad prices early on in the day or the night before. Cheers BH

[aliando]

Re: working out the value on odds to lay a horse at cheers billy! i've started to look at autobetfair (hodgey pointed this out to me), cos of the same reasons about not being at the computer at the right time to get the best prices for a lay