Be the Bookie (LAY All)

[thunderfoot]

[Kanga]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Stratford 2.30 looks a possible for today

[pinhofap]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

Danny, All races qualify ... I didn't analise the data to 'types' of race. Your workings above look about right.

Well, I'm afraid they are not right, but gladly it is in our favour. The commission is applied on a "per market basis", so you win 12 lays of 10 pounds, profit of 120, then extract the loser, minus 8.5 and then over this number commission is applied, giving you 105.92 pounds. Small difference, but 40 cents in 100 races are 40 pounds. I think this may not only work in maiden races and not only in races with strong favourites, and I'm going over this using Massey. I'll post here what I come up with.

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Possible races today (Sunday) Goodwood 16:50 - Fav @ 7/4; 11 run Kempton 14:55 - Fav @ 13/8; 12 run Stratford 14:30 - Fav @ 15/8; 12 run Stratford 17:20 - Fav @ 7/4; 13 run Not interested in the Irish or French meetings. Wonder if I can run this on the Tipsters League :eyes .... might give 'slapdash' a run for his money!!;) :lol :lol :lol :lol

[THE % MAN]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Well thunderfoot you seem to have caused a stir with this thread of yours and to be honest it looks very interesting and as I'm not a layer myself always interested in anything to do with racing. I also took a quick look at Massey's site and found it quite easy to look at your Idea at to back date to see how well it may perform using 10 and 11 runner races only. Idecided to use Novice Hurdles as the amount of Favs that win these races is quite high and if the Fav is odds on 76% AT 1/2 OR LESS 61% 1/2 to 10/11 and about 40% up to the 2/1 mark. Also out of 2093 bets 66/1 shots only 2 won and from 2259 bets 28/1 to 50/1, 26 won and in these type of races it looks good. The downside in my view could well be the other 25% of lossers in the odds on winner races as the other horses in those races their Sps will advance rapidly to 66/1 and above. When you start to look at other types of races this will not be the case. If you use only the types of races were the Favs or 2nd Favs perform well YOUR IDEA COULD REAP SOME NICE REWARDS,

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) FAV won at Stratford 2.30 but SP was over 2/1.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Do you think this theory would work with Portman Park?;)

[Kanga]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Just the 1 qualifier today I think :- 4.55 Goodwood - 11/8 fav won - 11 runners - 100/1 outsider Returned close to £80

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

Possible races today (Sunday) Goodwood 16:50 - Fav @ 7/4; 11 run Kempton 14:55 - Fav @ 13/8; 12 run Stratford 14:30 - Fav @ 15/8; 12 run Stratford 17:20 - Fav @ 7/4; 13 run Not interested in the Irish or French meetings. Wonder if I can run this on the Tipsters League :eyes .... might give 'slapdash' a run for his money!!;) :lol :lol :lol :lol

Goodwood 16:55 - Fav @ 7/4; 11 run - 11/8 SP Fav. won race:nana Kempton 14:55 - Fav @ 13/8; 12 run - 9/4 SP Fav so non-qualify (despite result - Fav came 2nd; 5/2 came 1st :( :( ) Stratford 14:30 - Fav @ 15/8; 12 run - 85/40 SP fav so non-qualify (despite result - Fav came 1st :( :( ) Stratford 17:20 - Fav @ 7/4; 13 run - 11/4 SP fav so non-qualify (despite result - Fav came 1st :( :( ) Nearly 4/4!!:tongue2 Return on Goodwood 16:55, about £80, soooo if I/we/you had been brave I/we/you would have been about £610 up in 5 days :) :) :) . Just about covers the 66/1 that must be just around the corner :lol :lol :lol

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

Do you think this theory would work with Portman Park?;)

WFTE, Portman Park? Never heard of it and don't even know where it is :) . The data only covered the 'English' events ... and Scottish. Is that where Mussleburgh is; sounds Scottish!! :$ ) Might be a few Welsh in there as well, but don't know where the courses are ... except Bath (7 mins away), which I've never been too !!:lol

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

If you use only the types of races were the Favs or 2nd Favs perform well YOUR IDEA COULD REAP SOME NICE REWARDS' date='[/quote'] Besides the Novice Hurdles, which might they be. I'll try to re-produce the database with 'types' of race .... but it will take me sometime AND I'm without a Laptop next week (going back to DELL for repair).

[THE % MAN]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

Besides the Novice Hurdles' date=' which might they be. I'll try to re-produce the database with 'types' of race .... but it will take me sometime [b']AND I'm without a Laptop next week (going back to DELL for repair).

I said I just took a quick look and new that maiden hurdles have a good strike rate for Favs anyway and also Maidens on the Flat should be looked at and Claimers, I think the probs may arise when dealing with Handicaps but with some real indepth researched you may have a very long term lay system but just off one years results I dont think thats enough although recent results do look good.I only looked at 10 and 11 runner races and 12 to 15 may also produce similar findings. WHEN TIME PERMITS I will see what I can find but wish you all the best with this thread of yours.

[London_Calling]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) I still don't understand why you wouldn't 'bail out' by automatically backing, say, a 100/1 shot that had shortened to, say, 20/1 in-running (using Gruss or other software). What would it cost: Say your potentail liability is £1,000 (lay at 100/1 for £10.00), you then back it if it does shorten to 20/1 in-running for £25.000 (recovering £500.00 if it goes on to win). If it then fades and you end up paying out on the winner PLUS losing the BACK bet for £25.00, chances are you're still ahead or, at worse, about even on the race (depending on the price of the eventual winer). But it means you never expose yourself to the full force of the potential (£1,000) downside. Of course, the 'bail out' only kicks in if that 100/1 shot does shortern to 20/1 in-running, and on which I have absolutely no stats at all ! No good idea ?

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

I still don't understand why you wouldn't 'bail out' by automatically backing, say, a 100/1 shot that had shortened to, say, 20/1 in-running (using Gruss or other software). What would it cost: Say your potentail liability is £1,000 (lay at 100/1 for £10.00), you then back it if it does shorten to 20/1 in-running for £25.00 (recovering £500.00 if it goes on to win). If it then fades and you end up paying out on the winner PLUS losing the BACK bet for £25.00, chances are you're still ahead or, at worse, about even on the race (depending on the price of the eventual winer). But it means you never expose yourself to the full force of the potential (£1,000) downside. Of course, the 'bail out' only kicks in if that 100/1 shot does shortern to 20/1 in-running, and on which I have absolutely no stats at all ! No good idea ?

Good idea, but I think you'll find that in practise these horses don't shorten in price 'In-Play' (some I've looked at don't even get any money placed on the LAY side whilst 'In-Play') ...... BUT the suggestion has given me another idea to look at ;) ;) .

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Only one to watch today, that I can see. Redcar 14:10 - 15 Runners; 15/8 Fav (Forecast from SL); 50/1+ outsiders. :hope

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

Only one to watch today, that I can see. Redcar 14:10 - 15 Runners; 15/8 Fav (Forecast from SL); 50/1+ outsiders. :hope

At last, a biggish winner, but because there were 15 runners the return is still pretty good .... Winner SP 15/2 = about 10.2 LAY odds on Betfair. About £40 winnings into the pot!!!:nana

[London_Calling]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

Good idea' date=' but I think you'll find that in practise these horses don't shorten in price 'In-Play' (some I've looked at don't even get any money placed on the LAY side whilst 'In-Play') ...... [/quote'] Exactly, but given some have expressed concern at the potential downside, my suggestion seems to offer a a saftety net that doesn't often compromise the yield unless the outsider threatens. Fwiw, on reflection I might be tempted to go shorter and bigger i.e £50.00 at 10/1 - it's all personal opinion, of course.

[DC]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Yes another £40 in the pot. Assuming one of the 100-1 shots in the race was around 250-1 on Betfair that's an outlay of around £2500 and a return on investment of around 1.6% :eek

[pinhofap]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) What everyone must think is why does this work? Because laying every horse in a race is the same if you are laying at fixed profit or fixed liability, after 10000 races it's the same. The reason this works on maiden races (or others) is if it is not profitable to back the 66/1 shots. Because if it is, rest assured that it's the same as arbing a lay on every horse, if market percentage is under 100% you don't win. What appears is that TF found that outsiders have less chances of winning in races with fancied favourites (can anyone double check this??) and if you only lay up to 10/1 that doesn't mean that you will win, in fact long term you may very well lose. It's about value, if you query Massey's database for what would happen if you backed every horse in all flat handicap races since 1997, you get a ROI of 100.0%. This means no profit, and winning some and losing some, commission would actually mean you would lose money. Now if you do the same query on all flat maiden races you get ROI of 98%. This means that the books are wrong on maiden races, this is because outsiders are overestimated in these races. You could also apply filters to handicap races to get books of 98, even 95% (some courses, like Lingfield, appear to favour hotshots and be bad for longshots, while others appear to have a good ROI for longshots). Think of this as laying one horse per race, you have to find value, the real value in this strategy is in laying the longshots, I don't think laying the rest of the field is giving you that much profit, if any profit at all. Another potential approach could be to find races where longshots give a good ROI, leave them out and lay everything below a certain price. My concern is that this will always return small ROI and commission is a killer, so as I said before, the fact that you win 5, 6 or 7 races doesn't mean anything, with favourites below evens after 10000 races you could have them win 5000 or more and show a loss (imagine 66/1 shots won 1 in every 33 races, you would lose money). It's not as simple as it may appear at first and definetly is a brilliant idea, but it needs more study. In the winter it doesn't work that well, but August appears to have been good using this. Hope some of this helps, and Good Luck with this.

[Hodgey]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All)

Yes another £40 in the pot. Assuming one of the 100-1 shots in the race was around 250-1 on Betfair that's an outlay of around £2500 and a return on investment of around 1.6% :eek

Good point and it was in fact even worse than that IIRC. Some of those horses were about 400-500 so the total liability was about £4500! :eek

[slapdash]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Thunderfoot, a couple of things that occurred to me: First, how easy would it be to break down the results you looked at from last year by price (i.e., what was the P/L on horses with SP 100/1 and above? between 50/1 and 100/1? Between 25/1 and 50/1? Etc.) Secondly, as anybody looked at the actual Betfair lay prices for races that fit your criteria? I think you've been using some general averages for how Betfair lay prices differ from SP, but is it possible that in these particular races the difference is significantly greater than the overall average? For example, in races with an odds-on favourite, I think the SP on likely each-way fancies is often artificially low, because otherwise the place part of an each-way bet would be too generous. But this doesn't apply to Betfair, because their place odds are independent of their win odds.

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) I totally agree with recent comments that the 'Liability' is high on long-shots. This is a high-risk strategy and would need a very high bank to operate .... but it works; so far!! :) I'm going to do some more work on the data I have availble to see if I can build-in a 'safety net', thus reducing the high liability.

First, how easy would it be to break down the results you looked at from last year by price (i.e., what was the P/L on horses with SP 100/1 and above? between 50/1 and 100/1? Between 25/1 and 50/1? Etc.)

Based on estimated Betfair SP's and all races (incl. those that don't meet the system criteria):

SP	BACK Return
101 +	£149.89
50+ to 101	-£12,857.45
25+ to 50	-£18,344.16
15+ to 25	-£11,162.58
10+ to 15	-£17,115.54
5+ to 10	-£27,135.42
2.5+ to 5	-£10,912.24
> 2.5	-£1,874.45

[thunderfoot]

[pinhofap]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Well, I take my hat off to you, it works, and you had a big winner already.

[thunderfoot]

[pinhofap]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Are you recording prices or still using estimates?

[thunderfoot]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Crashed & Burned big time!!! :sad .... 'n it were going so well :@ :@ :\ 27th Sept - Lingfield 14:20 - 100/1 winner :wall Just about wipes out most of the profit. Back to the drawing board!!!

[aliando]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) ouch - unlucky fella.

[Kanga]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Hi TF, Laying is a high liabilty low return business, this method will have long rises with the occasional big drop, 100/1 shots are a rarity so stick with it I think you are on to something here. One thing I would say is stick to VALUE you have listed your betfair estimates earlier, if a 40/1 on SP is trading at 100/1 on betfair don't lay it.

[pinhofap]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Why lay the 100/1 in the first place? Use cut-off price of 16/1 and see how it works...