thunderfoot Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 After looking at over 7,600 races (just under a years worth!!) I think I've ID'd a possible system. I say 'possible' because I haven't had the time to back-test it in earlier years, so if anyone has the data to hand please feel free to back-test further and post the results here. Would be interested to know how this performs over past years. The System. Simple .... LAY all horses in a race. Criteria. 11 runners or more to start race. Favourite SP = 8/11 to 15/8 (1.73/2.88 which equates to about 1.80/3.00 LAY odds on Betfair) Maximum SP of any horse must be 75.00 (BACK) or more on BF (about 43/1 at a bookies)From the 7,600+ races the criteria reduced the selections down to 771 races which returned £17k to £10 stakes per horse, after taking into account the 5% Betfair commission. Because I've posted the selection method I'll reserve the right to come back with any results, even after the event. I'll use the the SP's shown on SportingLife to ID possible races and convert these SP's to those shown above. To calculate the estimated LAY odds on Betfair I'll use the following %'ages against the SP's shown on SL :- 1.73 to 3.00 ... +5% 3.01 to 7.50 ... +10% 7.51 to 12.00 ... +20% 12.01 to 16.00 ... +30% 16.01 to 21.00 ... +40% 21.01 to 26.00 ... +50% 26.00 + ............. +70% Anyone who wants to post 'results' before I get back to the thread, feel free, you've got the criteria and calculations to use above, and examples of the 'system' in operation below!!! To see this in 'action' see the 20:00 at Windsor on 31/7/2006... 12 runners; 6/4F; Max. SP 66/1 (just happens to be a nice winner!!), and to see an 11+ horse race with the favourite at odds of 1.73 to 2.88 that doesn't meet the criteria because of criteria 3), see the 16:10 at Pontefract on 30/7/2006 (2 horses at 28/1 ... should be 43/1 or more) .... would've been another nice winner though .... but you can't win them all!!!! Edit: Here are some more races that qualified. These are from my database, so 'hopefully' they tie-up with the real results. I haven't double checked 'em :loon Date Section Time Course 13/07/2006 Flat 05:15 Folkestone 15/07/2006 Flat 04:15 Lingfield 15/07/2006 Flat 07:35 Salisbury 16/07/2006 NH 02:00 Stratford 17/07/2006 Flat 07:55 Windsor 17/07/2006 Flat 08:25 Windsor 19/07/2006 Flat 03:20 Lingfield 19/07/2006 Flat 07:28 Kempton 19/07/2006 Flat 07:56 Kempton 21/07/2006 Flat 04:55 Carlisle 21/07/2006 Flat 06:15 Newmarket 22/07/2006 NH 02:35 Market Rasen 22/07/2006 Flat 04:25 Newmarket 22/07/2006 Flat 07:40 Haydock 23/07/2006 NH 03:10 Stratford 24/07/2006 Flat 06:50 Windsor 26/07/2006 Flat 02:30 Lingfield 27/07/2006 NH 03:40 Uttoxeter 28/07/2006 Flat 04:45 Thirsk 28/07/2006 Flat 07:20 Chepstow 29/07/2006 Flat 04:45 Nottingham 30/07/2006 Flat 02:00 Pontefract 31/07/2006 Flat 08:00 Windsor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Surely if the market is under 100% ( which it always is, bots make sure of that) then in the long run itll show a loss?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Hang on, Im rethinking that comment and cant decide whether thats only true if you're trying to make the same profit whatever the outcome. I guess as long as the price of the average winner is lower than the number of runners then itll show a profit. Be very interested to see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Did you backtest using Betfair lay estimates you have calculated, or actual Betfair data? If you have used estimates then there is room for considerable error surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 6, 2006 Author Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Did you backtest using Betfair lay estimates you have calculated' date=' or actual Betfair data? If you have used estimates then there is room for considerable error surely?[/quote'] Test it, if you've got the time. The largest SP odds (happened once) that won a race was 66/1 and I used estimated LAY odds of 151.22; 50/1 (5) and I used 117.71 LAY odds; 40/1 (4) and I used 97.37 LAY odds and, finally, 33/1 (9) and I used 60.85 Lay odds. Be interested to know if you think I've over or under estimated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 6, 2006 Author Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) I guess as long as the price of the average winner is lower than the number of runners then itll show a profit. Average SP Odds = 7.31; Betfair equiv. = 9.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Your estimates are probably correct, but my point is you can't use estimates when laying horses. In each race some prices will be above your estimate, some below, but, as WFTE says, if the lay BPP adds up to less than 100% then in the long run you will lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) thunderfoot's idea may very well work, as long as you are laying to fixed profit, this way if the hot favourite wins, you pay a small liability but win every other horse. If the middle prices win you should break even, and when the outsiders win you lose a lot. In the long run, will you win? I'll take a look at Massey's and try to post something, but the idea is ingenious, great work thunderfoot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 6, 2006 Author Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Proof in the pudding!!!;) Only qualifying race so far :- Kempton 14:10; 11 Runners; 13/8 Fav (won):nana ; 66/1 Highest Odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Hi TF, Can you give an average example of the liability on the race above - at £10 lay on each horse and the return made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Youll need quite a sizeable bank Id imagine too. If youre laying too win £10 each horse than you'll be laying 66/1 shots to lose £660 at least! If that comes up in a race at the start thats the whole thing screwed. Sorry, not trying to put the idea down. Just pointing out potential problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Yes, WTFE is right, but another idea might be not to lay anything above a certain price, so that you don't have huge liabilities. That would force to make very small winnings running the risk of losing two races in a day and losing your whole bank. You could potentially lay only up to 30.0 decimal betfair and decide how much you'd be willing to lose per race. Then, use a simple formula to calculate how much to win per horse= stake per horse = (total liability)/((highest decimal odds on betfair)-(number of runners)) Say you are willing to lose a maximum 5% of bank per race. If a race had 12 runners, of which 8 were below 30.0, this would give a worst case scenario of losing (29-7)=22 units. Divide 5% per 22 and you get 0.23%. So you lay to win 0.23% of bank on each horse, if the 30.0 shot wins you lose (0.23x29)-(7x0.23)=6.67-1.61=5.06%. If an evens shot wins you get (0.23x7)-0.23=1.38%, minus 5% comm net profit 1.31%. If a 10.0 shot wins you lose 9x0.23-(0.23x7)=2.07-1.61=0.46%. I think this requires extensive study but it may very well work. The idea is excellent. The profit margin may be very small, but a steady income. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Using the above strategy you'd have to be quick on a calculator though as prices may be constantly changing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 6, 2006 Author Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Hi TF, Can you give an average example of the liability on the race above - at £10 lay on each horse and the return made. Big bucks ..... didn't say it would be cheap to finance ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Well, not really, because you only care about the highest price and the number of runners. But it needs a lot of study, maybe thunderfoot can do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Pinhofap - sorry but I don't follow you. If the race in question has runners with odds of 66/1, 50/1, 40/1, 33/1 - then with just those 4 horses you need to have £1,890 in your betfair account at £10 stakes - the final total would probably be closer to £3,000 and that's just one race - so what would the total bank have to be ? I'm not meaning to put anybody off as it could well be profitable and it's a great new angle, but it has it's limitations. Good work TF :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Kanga, your liabilty would only be as much as your biggest price lay, in this cas 'only' £660.Go to a Betfair market and temporarily lay everything in the race ( don't click confirm) and you'll see what I mean mate. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Kanga - it's laying not backing. Therefore only the single highest odds should be taken into account. You will only lose on one selection -not all of them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Kanga, your liabilty would only be as much as your biggest price lay, in this cas 'only' £660.Go to a Betfair market and temporarily lay everything in the race ( don't click confirm) and you'll see what I mean mate. Danny Danny is right, but better still, it is the highest price less the other runners you lay, because if the big price wins, you don't pay commission on any of the other 6 or 7 that you win, since commission is calculated on a market basis, therefore your liability would be a bit smaller. I do believe that this could work with a threshold price. If one of the big priced horses win you lose just too much. And there is more value on the 66/1 shots than on the 5/1 so in the long run laying those prices will probably mean winning less. Also, if you have the very unfortunate bad luck of losing two races in a day you don't lose your whole bank. If you control your maximum losses, it could work, I think, but it needs study. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Doh ! - what a **** I am, my mind was in backing mode. Cheers guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 6, 2006 Author Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) If one of the big priced horses win you lose just too much. For your information .... the one and only 66/1 winner happened when the Accum Return had reached £8,250 on the 15th Dec. 2005 and had regained the losses on 5th Feb. 2006, having taken some 'big hits' in this period ... 2 x 50/1; 3 x 33/1 & 5 x 20/1 or more. Might be a case for not betting in the winter months of December & January!!!:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) I'm not sure if I've understood this correctly, but can't you lay the 66/1 shot in-running at, say, 50/1 or 25/1. Of course, it might not ever get that low in running, but that's okay, isn't it ? Or you could nibble at different prices - a little at 66/1, a little more at 50/1, etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) I would suggest non-handicap races would be the place to start. Maidens and Novice Hurdles etc are renound for horses in the top 3 in the betting winning consistently. Shame Massey is down as I wanted to investigate this further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) ..... but another idea might be not to lay anything above a certain price' date=' so that you don't have huge liabilities.[/quote'] From the results I have, if I did not LAY any horse at 66/1 or above that would mean I would have extracted 1 race winner .... and extracted 2,162 race losers!!! At 50/1 .... 6 race winners and 2,855 race losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) From the results I have' date=' if I did not LAY any horse at 66/1 or above that would mean I would have extracted 1 race winner .... and extracted 2,162 race losers!!! At 50/1 .... 6 race winners and 2,855 race losers.[/quote']~ I find this very hard to believe. What this means is that horses with odds of 66/1 or higher win one in every 2163 runs, according to the parameters you gave at the start? Then everyone would just be laying 66/1 shots and winning loads of money. Could it be you made some error in this...? Best wishes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lanasone Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Interesting Thunderfoot, is this not dutching on a grand scale, but in reverse? wanting the lowest price to win, also are there any auto systems that would place the bets in accordance to the odds? good luck. slip-shod Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) ...... also are there any auto systems that would place the bets in accordance to the odds? good luck. slip-shod Could always try 'Gruss' software. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lanasone Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) I've just thought about my last comment,you have to lay the same amount on each,could try it at min. bet, £2 good luck. slip-shod Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) TF, am I correct in thinking there were several possible races yesterday but the fact that there were some horses in each race at 100-1 and over made it a "no bet" race? Does this also mean that bets will have to be placed minutes before the off in order to operate? Thanks Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) ~ I find this very hard to believe. What this means is that horses with odds of 66/1 or higher win one in every 2163 runs, according to the parameters you gave at the start? Then everyone would just be laying 66/1 shots and winning loads of money. Could it be you made some error in this...? Best wishes Unless the type of race chosen produces many more shorter price winners than outsiders - maidens ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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