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NFL Football Week 1


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Re: NFL Football Week 1 Carolina v. Atlanta under 39 (1.99)

Atlanta still relies heavily on their ground game to move the ball as Vick just isn’t accurate enough as a passer to be a consistent down field threat. Carolina have one of the best run stopping units in the game, and they looked to have continued that form this season, allowing just 3.1 y/c in the pre-season. In fact the defense has looked very good early. In the FIRST HALVES of the NFLX games when starters on both sides played most minutes they have not allowed a TD…just 3 (50 yard FG.), 3 (50 yard FG!), 3 and 6 points. Smith questionable for the Panthers will hurt their passing game…still, they will be a run first team anyway, esp. against Atl’s questionable run D. Last year’s meeting in Charlotte was 24-6, and Smith had 7/65 and a TD. I expected this line to be 37 or lower.

Cleveland v. NO. under 36 (1.94)

Neither of these teams have a big play in them! Frye has had a terrible start to the year, throwing for just 3.9 y/pass in the pre-season!! Put most of that down to a very make-shift starting O-line, but there doesn’t look to be any improvement ahead. Brees is coming off shoulder surgery, so there will be very little down field passing (NO have already said as much). Much of their game will involved short, dump off passes, and of course a heavy dose of Reggie Bush. The good news for Cleveland is that they went out of their way to improve their run D this season by getting in Washington and McGinest…and early days, but they allowed just 3.3 y/r in the pre-season, so things look to be on the right track. Should be lots of time consuming drives, and although one team may get some scoring done, it’s tough to see them both rack up any points.

TB v. Baltimore under 34 (2.01)

Seems the obvious pick. 2 very solid defenses, 2 weak offenses. Simms has decent potential but will struggle against this Raven unit that returns as formidable as ever. They allowed just 1 offensive TD in the first halves of the pre-season games, and will worry Simms into making quick throws. Also expecting a large dose of the Cadillac, which will chew up plenty of clock. Tampa are much the same. They allowed just 2 TD’s in 8 quarters of ‘real’ pre-season action, and certainly pride themselves on their defense. McNair could be a decent addition to the Ravens, but it will take a few games to get the timing right, so he could struggle straight up, esp. away at one of the best D’s in the NFL.

Arizona -7.5 (1.93) San Fran had a grand total of TWO sacks in pre-season…both by guys who got cut! Obviously they weren’t showing everything they had up front, but it does point to a severely lacking pass rush this season…and if Warner gets time in the pocket to look downfield this one gets real messy. Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin, James…the Cards suddenly look very dangerous indeed! Last season ‘Zona won the meeting at home 31-14…and all 14 points came from the defense! Obviously SF will improve this season, but so have ‘Zona. First game at home, new stadium, high hopes…the Cards put the foot down and win big.

NYG +3 (2.06)

New York were 8-1 at home last year…1 loss to Minni by 3 points (21-24), but 21 of their points came from defense and special teams!! Indi score big, and simply out-blast most teams, but they still have one major weakness…they can’t stop the run. Early indications are that it’s even got worse, allowing 5.5 y/r in the pre-season! Barber will have a massive game here, keeping the pressure off baby brother, keeping older brother on the sidelines, and more importantly putting the Giants on the scoreboard. On the other side of the coin, James gone, and can anyone fill the hole? They gained a horrible 2.3 y/r in the pre-season!!...so tough to see where the run comes from. Can Payton carry the load without a decent running game? Probably, but it will be a whole lot tougher! Giants a big live home dog here, imo.

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 GL TazaD. My self i don't even bother to look at pre season stats.New England had one of the worst pre season stats each time they won a Super bowl. I can go on ,on this one for about forever.Sorry it's just me.I think it's just wrong to judge any NFL team on pre season stats.Every one handicapps in there own way.As i said it's just me. When i said .There is been a lot of talk about NFL up coming games and NO picks what so ever.I didn't mean to offend anyone.To explain my self more. Anyone who gambles on NFL .Should have their picks long time ago. Gamblers had 7 months to look at this match ups.My self i made up my mind 2 weeks ago.TazaD look from your point of view (lets say your favourite sport is soccer EPL)U would have your picks 2-4 days before games been played .I am sure u would know on whom u gonna put $$$. U maight eliminate some of the picks after discussion.But u would stick to a 2/3 picks that u handicapp .Thats why i was happy to see first post with a actual PICK. my take on your picks.can't really say much.I didn't look much. Cleveland v. NO under 36 (1.94) This game maight just get out of hand .i wouldn't take O/U .Cleveland to cover -3.0 is much better bet in my view. Arizona -7.5 over SF 49s Anything over TD is a big ? mark .We don't know how good Arizona are. -7.5 i would stay away. NYG +3.0 I agree that Giants are gonna run on Indi at will eating up a clock and keeping P Manning off the field with a running game.Without A.James P Manning will have to throw ball more then he would have to.How successessful is he gonna be i don't know.I would take under.Reason Giants will try to eat the clock to keep him out off the field. Overall +3.0 NYG is the right play . I didn't look deep enough but i have to agree. TB v. Baltimore under 34 (2.01) Carolina v. Atlanta under 39(1.99)

with the odds 2.01 and 1.99 u can't go wrong -period-!!!!!!!!!!!!eather u get bouth of them for +$$$ or break even.Good call ! Odds /probability. GL .

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 I hear what you are saying vitalyo, but in such a high impact sport I think it's dangerous to be laying any cash down more than a few days out. (Except for obvious bad lines that you feel will move off key numbers...) Cleveland lost 3 centres during training camp/pre-season games for example... I actually think it's slightly dangerous to have pre-conceived ideas about teams heading into a season without actually seeing anything to back it up... ...then again, I guess that's what everyone is doing in week 1 to an extent. Pre-season game results are meaningless, I agree...but by watching the games (we had 1 or 2 on tv each week) you can get a feel of how the starters are performing...doesn't matter that they aren't showing 50% of their plays. Philli for example came out and made a statement, and showed that McNabb is healthy and they looked very good. Jacksonville was another that caught my eye as being very under-done offensively....Looking at the scores you wouldn't think so, but a HEAP of their points came from the back-up QB's against back-up defenses. Leftwitch and the starters were terrible. Arizona have the hook for a reason ;) ...actually they are -9 @ Pinnacle! Anyway, good luck with the rest of your plays. I'll be sure to check out the NCAA thread, because I freely admit that I know NOTHING about it! (Way too many teams for me to keep up with :D)

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Re: NFL Football Week 1

GL TazaD.. Overall +3.0 NYG is the right play .
:lol Good of him to agree. Jeez we had a lively discussion last season when I suggested you narrow down the picks to 1 or 2 best instead of getting 3 from 7, 4 from 8 etc which just didn't seem profitable, but I don't think anyone was just as abrasive or opinionated :lol He did land his Steelers even at -5 despite your reservations though :lol GL for the new season everyone My one for this weekend is one you've highlighted already Taz and that's the under 46 Denver/Rams....lotta runs, lotta unconverted 3rd downs, lotta punts, lotta scoring time wasted. edited to say
Early indications are that it’s even got worse (Indi run D)' date=' allowing 5.5 y/r in the pre-season! Barber will have a massive game here
Ladbrokes doing 5/6 Barber over 95.5yards - 20+ carries likely - maybe the way to a profitable wk 1
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Re: NFL Football Week 1 I could not believe that the Line Judge missed the TE go out of bounds, but as regards this;

Second, obviously was that the challenge flag was thrown, but not seen and so ignored. What are you going to do? Run out on the field and risk a penalty?? Pelt it at the nearest guys head?
According to one of the commentating team Saban could have run onto the field in order to get an officials attention, and why did he wait so long before throwing it anyway?
Anyone who gambles on NFL .Should have their picks long time ago.
If you're talking about hunches about who you think will do well then I sort of understand, but since I re-started last year (thanks mainly to Taza) I've found it better to discuss certain points or thoughts then make my plays on Saturday or Sunday. Plus I think a bit of 'banter' during the week is definitely a good thing, as it teaches 'newbies' (god I hate that term) some of the thought process involved in making picks.
Culpepper gave that game away IMO
Thats a bit harsh maj don't you think? I thought it was a case of the Steelers defence finally realising they had a game on, and starting to play. The dude with the hair (who's name escapes me :eyes) made a great pick. :clap
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Re: NFL Football Week 1 Seattle(-6) @ Detroit Seattle will hope to hit the ground running as NFC Champions, and start in dominating fashion against a Detroit side who are again in the process of rebuilding. The only question marks for me on this game is the fact that its the first of the year. Any other week of the season and I think bettors would be all over this spread. Chicago @ Green Bay (Under 35) Injuries devasted GB last year, and although I don't believe that GB will have a postseason, I cetainly expect more from them, and I believe that now is as good a time for them to play Chicago as any. I think Chicago will win, but I just can't see it being a score fest, and as such I'll still take the under on a low line. Indianapolis @ NY Giants (under 48) This pick was very profitable for me last year, and I have to play it again. Call it the 'muggiest' of my mug punts. I believe that the linemakers are overestimating (again) the potency of the Indy offence. (Just read your write up Taza and I admt I forgot just how dominating NY were at home last year - ty) I may have a gamble on Washington to beat Minnesota SU, but I'll certainly be taking SD (+3 ATS) @ Oakland, but I'll be quite happy if I get that one wrong. Best of luck with your picks guys. :okgftt

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 :lol :lol :lol @ gazzyg! (Thought it was best if I didn't say something similar! :D ) Valient...I wondered what you meant earlier, taking about SD and the ML...SD are -3, not +3. :ok Seems like I jumped on the Browns under at the wrong time...up to 37 now, which does surpirse me. Got a bad feeling about it now...couldn't be a 17-17 OT could it?! Cinci @ KC total up over the 47 mark now...good sign for the over bettors... ...Dallas into PK at Jax too. (Thanx Maj :cheers )

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 Mind you, the game is still 2 days away, but you wouldn't think the line would move too much either way... I just forgot to mention about the SL/Denver game... ...I originally lked the under too, with SL committing more to then run, but the more I looked I think the total might still be a bit low given how SL finished off last season...their last 5 games they scored, 9, 13, 16, 20 & 20...but of course there was no Bulger. Even with more of a running game (attempted anyway) they are still a big down field threat at any stage. Throw in pre-season, and in their last 9 games they have av'd just 15.3 ppg! Question in my mind is, is the total artificially low because of this?...or are the Bulger-less games and pre-season being completely ignored?? Dunno. :D Anyway...still happy with what I've got lined up.

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 in game 1, play against a non-division road favorite of more than 3 points with a total of 42 points or less before a conference home contest in its next game. playing an unfamiliar foe as a road favorite has been a tough way for non-division teams to start the season, especially with a conference home contest coming up. an o/u of less than 42 points indicates that it's a game in which the teams aren't expected to be lighting up the scoreboard. usually, a lower-scoring game will favor the underdog. these road favorites have failed to cover the spread on every occassion for 20 years, going 0-13 ats. most recently, denver was a solid 5-point favorite at miami in last year's season opener prior to a home game with division-rival San Diego. the broncos were broken easily by the Dolphins, 34-10, as denver failed to cover the spread by more than 4 TDs! on sunday, september 10, philadelphia plays a non-division game at Houston. The eagles are favored by more than a fg in a game with a total in the high 30s. next up, they will be home against division-rival new york giants, qualifying philadelphia as the play against team. ...Just for those thinking about taking Philli...If you're into that kinda thing ;)

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 Couple games I like today. Ravens +3.0. Tough team with fresh players and an attitude to put the last few years behind them. TB comes back to earth this year and it starts here. BTW buy the hook (3.5). Cincy/KC over 48. Carson Palmer seems to have no ill effects from his knee injury and bodes well against the Chiefs weak secondary. Larry Johnson should be able to run through the Bengals weakness (their rush defence). Jax -105. Dallas has improved their players but they have yet to gel. While Jax is playoff team from a year ago. I believe they lost only 1 game at home last season (vs Colts).

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 Chicago @ Green Bay My Pick: Chicago -3 (-115) Chicago’s only cover as a road favorite the last 4 years came by ½ point in LY’s second meeting vs. the then injury-riddled Packers. But even with the Bears’ No. 1 offense sputtering in the preseason, they are by far the more solid of these two teams entering the season. G.B.’s pair of rookie guards will have loads of problems with Tommie Harris, Brian Urlacher & Co. History has also shown that Brett Favre will force balls when flustered. If Chicago RBs Jones & Benson provide QB Grossman with a little ball control, improved Packer defense could wear down.

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 Denver @ St. Louis My Pick: Denver - 3.5 (-115) I love this game! The Rams will be better but they are not up to par with the Broncos. HC Linehan will improve this team but not in game one. Denver is loaded on both sides of the ball. Last year Denver lost game 1 on the road to Miami, they do not want a repeat of this and this has been discussed openly among players and coaches. When St. Louis’ starters on defense faced a first team offense of a good running team such as K.C. in the preseason, Larry Johnson made it seem like a case of men against boys, with the Ram's D being the “boys.”

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 I tend to leave opening day alone, just too damn unpredictable...but just a little flutter on the 2 tele games for interest. Atlanta @ Carolina UNDER 38.5 Carolina has been able to contain Vick and I don't see him running all over them. I think the panthers defense will be one of the best this season. Steve Smith has two bad hamstrings so the passing won't get a lot of big plays. As long as Vick doesn't fumble the damn football and turn it over, i look for a low scoring game. Unders is 13-6-1 in their past 20 meetings. Jacksonville (+2.5) vs Dallas he Jags defense is year in and year out one of the most underated defenses in the league and it is happening again this year. They have no stars on defense and thats just the way Del Rio likes it. You can count on them to play tough team defense every game (especially at home on opening day). As for the offense, they have a lot to prove with Jimmy Smith gone and showing that Taylor can stay healthy. But having said that, Leftwich have better than average young receivers to throw to with Williams and Jones. And having that defense behing them means that they wont have to put up 24-30 points a game in my opinion. Im on the Jags! GL TO ALL IN WHATEVER YOU PLAY TONIGHT :hope

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 1st and 20, ball on CLE 16 Last Play: 1-10-CLE 26(14:52) C.Frye pass to B.Edwards for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CLV-[57], Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLV 26 - No Play. 1) um, good! :D but 2) There goes my no big play theory....

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 4th and 11, ball on CLE 45 Last Play: 4-1-NO 45(4:38) C.Frye pass to J.Jurevicius to NO 25 for 20 yards (J.Bullocks). PENALTY on CLV-C.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 45 - No Play Lovin' the officials in this game! (Not so keen on Chris Simms throwing picks on a 2nd and 13 tho :@)

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 I'm watching TVNU clarky posted it up in Tech and Gaming;

Dont know if any of you are intrested but there is a way to watch footy without paying SKY,SETANA etc. I got this last season off another forum & it did work with the matches being around 2 mins behind 5 live,just downloaded these new programmes myself so try it boys.. instructions below....:ok
Thanks HB2 I still think it would be better if we could take this off site, so to speak, with the info you provided in a separate FAQ bulletin board and a link to the site. "The list below is of the better programmes that can be obtained on the internet.Most are from Asia so most of them may be in Asian,but where possible we have found the translated version,IF YOU NEED ANY QUESTIONS ANSWERED PLEASE ASK THEM IN THIS THREAD AS WE CANNOT ANSWER ANY MORE OUTSIDE IT.We will be posting the schedule either the Wednesday or the Thursday before the weekend games.This schedule will be as accurate as possible but not guaranteed. http://www.speedbit.com/eng/? 1.TVUplayer Newest version at the moment.Plays like S.O.P did last year but with more channels and it's more stable.Download from link below. http://www.tvunetworks.com/downloads/index.htm Once downloaded Download Accelerator plus will ask wether you want to open it.Open it.Another window opens.Top left hand corner it says extract files.Double click it.The extraction wizzard appears.keep hitting NEXT until it says finish.Click finish and another window appears.Double click the file in this window.Drag the circular icon from this window onto your desktop and close everything else down.Double click the icon then choose english.The Installation wizzard appears.Hit the next button,then install,then finish.You will notice a grey circular icon with TVU Player underneath on your desktop and the player should open automatically.The lsit of channels will appear to the right.Double click the channel you want and it should appear on the player to the right.You will notice how much it has buffered in red below the player.Once it is playing double click for full screen. 2.PPLive Still the same as last year.They tried to block people outside Asia from watching it but looks now like they have give up.Download from below.Download the 1.2.39 Beta download. http://www.pplive.com/en/download.html Again whe D.A.P. asks ,run the progrmme.Again ask for english and the setup wizzard appears.Next,Agree,Next,Install.Onthe finish page do not tick Maxthon Tabbed Browser.Just click finish.The player will then open.Hit the top left hand play tab and the channel catagories will appear.Hit the sports and the channels the footy will be on will be in there.Apart from sport there are Newly released movies on the differet movie channels. 3,S.O.P Totally different format from last year,much improved.Download from the link below it takes about 5 seconds with D.A.P.: http://www.sopcast.org/ Again when D.A.P. asks run it.Window opens,extract files.Extraction wizzard opens.Next,Next,Finish.New window opens.Drag circular icon to desktop and close everything else down.Double click icon and the set up wizzard appears.Next install,finish.You will notice a circluar icon(same as TUPlayer) on desktop.Also the sop cast login window appears.Click Login.Another window appears.Click the channels tab and the list of channels appears.Hit the channel you want and it will appear in the player.The buffering percentage appears below the player.Double click for full screen. 4.PPStream Again same as last year.Download from the link below.Takes about 30 seconds to download with D.A.P.: http://download.ppstream.com/ppstreamsetup.exe Again when D.A.P. asks run it.The set up wizzard will appear.Next,next,next,instal.When it's finished it will appear. Unlike last year it gives you the option of changing your Windows application to increase the number of differnt people you can stream off. When the player opens,a bos appears with a man holding a spanner.This is so you can fix your windows XP Service pack to for better streaming.Hit the D button to the right of him.Another box appears.To the right of wherei it has got ???? put 1000 and then press A. Your windows box will appear saying you are changing it's version press cancel.It will say are you sure.press Yes.This will improve your streaming ability greatly. Once this is done the Player appears which is in Chinese.Close it down and open up the following link.This is the partly translated version: http://list1.ppstream.com/frame.htm Aswell as the normal footy channels it now has MUTV,ChelseaTV,LFCTV and Celtic TV,plus other sports and the newly released films. More programmes to follow next week.
:ok :ok :ok :ok :ok :ok :ok
At the moment I'm just watching St.L/Denver (who just scored a TD) on CBS.
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Re: NFL Football Week 1

Nice!!! Which one do you recommend, Valient?...or do you d/l them all and then pick the game you want to watch? (Assuming they all show a different game)
Well being honest mate, I've had to use PPstream or PP Live for 'soccer' which has been broadcast through a chinese channel and a bit hit and miss, but TVNU is really really easy to use and you should recognise most of the channels. I caught the half time show on Fox (US), but preferred to go for CBS for this game - and its a corker so far. :D
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Re: NFL Football Week 1 Well, somethings just aren't meant to be, huh. San Fran kick a "meaningless" FG with 30 seconds left to cover...plus got a gift with a fumble only 7 yards out in the 3rd... ...The Giants game was one of the worst losses I've ever seen! Penalty, after penalty on 3rd and short...one took them out of FG range...a missed FG... ...kick-off with 35 seconds left in the first half, allowed a 40 yard return, then played super soft D to allow Indi close enough to kick a FG. ...3 INT drops (2 relatively easy)...they finally get one, only to give it back about 3 plays later. THE WORST offensive pass interference call I have EVER witnessed as they were marching down the field 2 points down with about 5 minutes left...puts Eli in a hole and he throws up a hopeless INT... ...still a chance if they can force a punt on 3rd and 11....nope...first down... ...STILL a chance if Indi can convert a 3rd and 2 with 2 minutes left, and they will kneel it out.... ...nope! They run a terrible straight ahead running play that predictably goes nowhere...come on and kick the FG, leaving NYG 5 down abuot 50 seconds and no TO's. Even then there was a small chance but Shockey catches the ball on the 50 with 40 seconds to play...AND DOESN'T GO OUT OF BOUNDS!!!...Turns inside....If I only had a brain... VERY tough loss. Oh well...look like some decent bets next week already...like the look of some big favs tho which is usually a worry...

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 :ok On the bright side Kiki Barber ran for over 100yds landing the soft Ladbrokes over 95.5 prop. With Denver/St Louis staying under I'm a happy bunny. Looking through the majority of picks in this thread were successful...not a bad opening weekend for all

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Re: NFL Football Week 1 @ Green Bay under 35 Indianapolis @ NY Giants under 48 Atlanta @ Carolina under 38.5

Denver St Louis under 46

Tiki Barber over 95.5yds Carolina v Atlanta under 39

Cleveland v NO. under 36

TB v. Baltimore under 34

Baltimore (+3.0)

Jacksonville (+2.5)

Jacksonville

(x2) Chicago (-3.5) over Green Bay

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

(x3) Pittsburgh Steelers (– 1)

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Losses (x3) Cincinnati at Kansas Cityover 46.5

Cleveland (-2.5)

(x2)Miami (+1)

Miami

Patriots (-9.5)

Arizona (-7.5)

NYG (+3)

Indianapolis/NY giants over 48

Denver (-3.5)

Pitts under 34

Seattle(-6)

MNF

SD @ Oakland under 43

SD (-3 ATS) @ Oakland

I make that roughly 18 wins to 14 lost before MNF 56% - hmmm Wk1 I suppose better than evens Ok I blame Nightfisher (0-3) , Vitalyo(1-2) and sdsponger(1-2) :lol ***EDIT: He is only joking guys!!...Please, don't take offense and/or stop posting ;) [Taz] ***EDITED AGAIN - Oi how'd you get to edit my post Taz ! I could be a sad grumpy old moany git who genuinely felt that they'd let the side down ;) ...but I'm not (despite what my Mrs might say when she's trying to switch to Coronation Street in the middle of the early Sunday game) ....all genuine info and posts and tips appreciated....after all TazaD had a bloomin awful start last year but we still continued to read his stuff :lol ***EDIT: Just like this ;) lol! ...oh yes, funny how I lost $ about 12 weeks in a row waiting for Indi to stumble! :D (Coronation Street, can't stand it...but Eastenders cracks me up no end!! :unsure )

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