digi Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 I still like Pitt to get the job done,yeah Batch is not good,can see the Pitts D getting some turnovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Batch's numbers in those games are similar to what Big Ben puts up. The key will be to run the ball and set up 2nd & 3rd and shorts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRook Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Well, hopefully this will be the place I can help my overseas friends out the most....as Football both NFL and College as well as hoops and hockey are my favorite. Week 1: Pittsburgh -1 over Miami --Not disregarding the loss of Big Ben, but this is still the defending world champs playing their first home game since the Super Bowl. With this game virtually at a pick, the clear clear value is on the home team and Pittsburgh. Chicago -3.5 over Green Bay--- So much focus on the quarterbacks for the Bears, and thats dangerous because the focal point should be on two things: 1) The bears dominate defense 2) Green Bay sucks worse then last year The Bears defense will create a short field for the Bears offense and this one will be an easy cover. Indianapolis/NY giants over 48---The biggest factor in this game for me is actually someone who probably wont' be playing, and that's Indy Kicker Adam Vinitari. He's got a bum leg and that will prevent him more then likely from playing. What does that mean for Indy's offense? They will take more chances and instead of settling for 3, they will be trying for 6 more. Eli and the Giants will put some points on the board as well at home as they I think will be one of the most imporved offenses this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdsponger Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Alright, gonna go with the road dog tonight... My Pick: Miami +1 at -110 small stakes only This has all the ingredients for a road win. If the Dolphins can't take advantage of this situation, Saban will go crazy. I've doing a little more research and I'm hearing Miami appears to be deep enough and physical enough up front to keep from being dominated by Steelers’ outstanding OL. With Culpepper now, Saban can really open up their O attack to incorporate roll-outs, bootlegs and other misdirection type plays. If Culpepper can stay healthy, he has the skill position players around him to succeed. I still don't trust Batch and Parker to carry the O. I know some have picked Parker to become an elite back this year, but not tonight. I don't think Batch has the ability to stretch Miami's D. Without Big Ben, Miami can stack the box and blitz, something Miami loves to do. Sure, when you blitz it puts your secondary in 1 on 1 coverage which is vulnerable, but this isn't as risky with Batch at QB. Ward's listed as day to day with a strained hammie. Unless he's really 100%, I can't imagine the Steelers risking him too much tonight. Steelers were only 3-5 as a home favorite LY. Glad to see this thread so active and let's keep the info flowing regardless of what side of a spread you might be on. After all, isn't our main goal to help each other beat the books... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiqo Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 sponger I read your stuff and stake some money on the Pittsburgh Team. Hope your analyzed good for the first match tonight ;) good luck.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdsponger Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 sponger I read your stuff and stake some money on the Pittsburgh Team. Hope your analyzed good for the first match tonight ;) good luck.:hopechiqo, my money's on Miami :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Money has flooded in for the steelers. IMO its too early in the day for it be the sharps/pros. I think the present line is fishy... NFL pool cheat sheet: Opening week breakdown By Stephen Nover Thu, Sep 7, 2006 Miami at Pittsburgh (pick) Why Dolphins cover: - No Ben Roethlisberger. - Hines Ward not 100 percent. - Dolphins improved with better quarterback, secondary and special teams. Why Steelers cover: - Little change from last year’s fourth-ranked defense. - Daunte Culpepper not as good or as healthy as advertised. - Improved Willie Parker emerges as elite back. Over/under: 34 ½ Opened 37. Is Roethlisberger worth five points on the betting line and 2 ½ on the total? Denver (-4) at St. Louis Why Broncos cover: - Strong, solid AFC team with 19 starters back. - Balanced attack that can take advantage of weak Rams defense, especially porous secondary. - Playing against a first-year head coach with new schemes on offense and defense. Why Rams cover: - This is an off-surface for Broncos, who are used to grass. - Broncos more focused on next week’s home opener against division rival Kansas City. - Torry Holt and the other Rams wideouts good enough to burn a Denver secondary that allowed an average of 227 receiving yards last year. Over/under: 46. Even though both coaches stress a strong ground attack, should be a lot of passing on a fast track against less-than-stellar secondaries. New York Jets at Tennessee (-2 ½) Why Jets cover: - Titans unsure who to start at quarterback. - Titans laying points. - Titans offensive line problems. Why Titans cover: - Jets lost past 10 road games. - Jets not prepared with new coaching staff and players learning new systems. - Lack of playmakers on Jets’ offense. Over/under: 35 ½. Low total but the strength of these two bottom feeders is defense. Buffalo at New England (-9) Why Bills cover: - Can move the ball on 26th-ranked Patriots defense. - Patriots laying too many points against a division rival with double revenge. - Strong special teams. Why Patriots cover: - Beaten Buffalo 10 of the last 11, going 8-3 against the spread (ATS). - Tom Brady on fire. - Bill Belichick game planning against overmatched J.P. Losman. Over/under: 41. In the series, 12 of the last 14 have gone under. The Bills also are 8-1 to the under as road underdogs. Baltimore at Tampa Bay (-3) Why Ravens cover: - Bucs do for a fall after winning six games by a touchdown or less last year. - Ravens better on offense with Steve McNair instead of Kyle Boller. - Chris Simms isn’t as good as some think. Why Buccaneers cover: - Ravens 1-12 last 12 away games. - Bucs more stable and better-coached outfit. - Bucs defense takes advantage of Ravens’ struggling offensive line and banged-up Jamal Lewis. Over/under: 34. Ravens 31-9 to the under as a road underdog. Two top-10 defenses. Cincinnati at Kansas City (-2 ½) Why Bengals cover: - Carson Palmer looked great during preseason. - Chiefs have key defections in offensive line. - Chiefs defense not looking much improved. Why Chiefs cover: - Huge home field edge, covering 23 of the past 24 home openers. - Palmer may have endurance issues. - Larry Johnson in line for huge day against soft Bengals rush defense minus Odell Thurman. Over/under: 46. Down from 48, but maybe still too big considering Palmer might be rusty and Chiefs more conservative now. Seattle (-6) at Detroit Why Seahawks cover: - Detroit’s offensive line isn’t ready to handle a defense this good. - Seahawks have experience playing at Detroit. - Class difference. Why Lions cover: - Seahawks have won four road games the last two years by more than six points. - Lions 20-8 ATS in home openers. - Lions have higher sense of urgency at home under a new coaching regime. Over/under: 45. Complicated Detroit offense directed by Mike Martz might take time to jell. Atlanta at Carolina (-5) Why Falcons cover: - Falcons 7-1 ATS in Week 1. - Panthers 6-15 ATS as home favorite. - Steve Smith not 100 percent with a hamstring injury. Why Panthers cover: - Dominated the Falcons last year, outscoring them, 68-17, in two games. - Falcons run defense vulnerable without middle linebacker Ed Hartwell. - Have the defense quickness to contain Michael Vick. Over/under: 39. Carolina has gone under nine of its last 10 opening games. Philadelphia (-5) at Houston Why Eagles cover: - Texans unproven at running back with Domanick Davis out. - Eagles healthy unlike last year. - Eagles 26-16 ATS on the road last five years. Why Texans cover: - Brian Westbrook may not be 100 percent. - Improved coaching and upgraded talent in the defensive interior and offensive line. Over/under: 37. Seems low considering how well Donovan McNabb looked in preseason and that linesmakers opened it 41. New Orleans at Cleveland (-3) Why Saints cover: - Browns down to about their 10th-string center. - Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister tall order for 30th-ranked Browns run defense. - Laying points with Charlie Frye. Why Browns cover: - Saints lost their punter and kicker John Carney may not play. - Kellen Winslow Jr. could chew up Saints’ weak linebackers. - Saints have unproven coaching staff. Over/under: 35 1/2. Weird to see a total dip this low with two such mediocre defenses. Dallas at Jacksonville (-2 ½) Why Cowboys cover: - Byron Leftwich 0-14 in scoring drives during preseason. - Jaguars leading tackler Mike Peterson questionable. - Terrell Owens. Why Jaguars cover: -Terrell Owens. - Jaguars 24-8-1 ATS as home favorite laying less than seven. - Cowboys may be without kicker Mike Vanderjagt. Over/under: 36 ½. Total’s dropped all the way to 36 ½ from 40. Chicago (-3 ½) at Green Bay Why Bears cover: - Green Bay starting two rookie guards. - Brett Favre’s propensity for interceptions, which cost the Packers both games last year against the Bears. - Packers’ questionable special team units and kickers. Why Packers cover: - Packers outgained Chicago, 723-482, in two games last year and are better this season. - Rex Grossman starts for Chicago. - Ahman Green healthy (at least for now). Over/under:35. Nine of past 12 in the series have gone over at Green Bay. San Francisco at Arizona (-7 ½) Why 49ers cover: - Have an improved offensive line, healthy Frank Gore and upgraded receivers. - Cards in unfamiliar pointspread territory having laid this many points once the last six years. -49ers 8-3 straight-up against Cards past 11. Why Cardinals cover: - Pumped to put up points in brand new stadium playing at home opening week for first time since 2001. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin can torch porous 49ers secondary. - 49ers have no pass rush to bother Kurt Warner. Over/under: 42. Seems short considering both teams have improved offenses. Indianapolis (-3) at New York Giants Why Colts cover: - Peyton Manning can seriously hurt a revamped Giants secondary. - Colts haven’t been favored by such a small margin since Week 1 of last year. - Giants yet to prove they have overcome shutout playoff loss to Carolina. Why Giants cover: - Have the pass rushers to disrupt Manning’s delicate timing. - Colts may lack balance with Edgerrin James departed. - Eli Manning has the weapons to attack average Colts secondary. Over/under: 48. Could get bet up this being the Sunday night game. Minnesota at Washington (-4 ½) Why Vikings cover: - Washington was soundly beaten in all its preseason games with its first-team offense failing to even reach the Red Zone. - Clinton Portis may not be 100 percent with a shoulder injury. Why Redskins cover: - Vikings have lost 33 of their last 45 road games and are playing on grass. - Redskins laying in the weeds not caring about preseason. - Minnesota learning a new offense under first-year coach Brad Childress. Over/under: 35. Too much is being made of Washington’s lack of scoring during preseason and Portis possibly being out. San Diego (-3) at Oakland Why Chargers cover: - Huge edge in the trenches. - LaDainian Tomlinson averages 121 yards rushing against the Raiders. - Chargers held Oakland to an average of 60 yards rushing last season in two games and have covered seven of the past eight meetings, including last six. Why Raiders cover: - Philip Rivers’ first NFL start. - Backup offensive left tackle forced to start. - Randy Moss at full strength can burn Chargers’ 28th-ranked pass defense. Over/under: 43. Down from 46 ½. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamse81 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Quality write-up on Miami sdsponger. From what I read Rolisburger is very important and so the team (Miami) seems to have a good chance at a win here. I'm with you buddy :hope :ok Keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Boy oh boy more monyy coming in for steelers LOL the sharps and pros gonna come in for Miami and get a good line IMO! NFL FOOTBALL - WEEK 1 Thursday, September 7thTimeGm #TeamScoreOpenerCRISThe GreekWWTSSportsbookJazz09/07 5:30p101 102 MIAMI PITTSBURGH 37 5 34 2 34½ 1½ 34½ 1 34 1½ 34 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 SD you and i are in for along season mate. I support the redskins and they performed like scrubs in preseason. It was bad...if I didnt support them id take the Vikings against them this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdsponger Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 SD you and i are in for along season mate. I support the redskins and they performed like scrubs in preseason. It was bad...if I didnt support them id take the Vikings against them this week.I feel your pain. I hope the Raiders can actually put the last 2 horrible seasons behind them, get some friggin heart, minimize their mistakes and play as a team. If they don't, we'll be lucky to get 5 wins :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 I feel your pain. I hope the Raiders can actually put the last 2 horrible seasons behind them' date=' get some friggin heart, minimize their mistakes and play as a team. If they don't, we'll be lucky to get 5 wins :unsure[/quote'] Oh please Sponger, NO! My soccer team isn't the greatest, and I could do with a winning season for a change (waits for Taza to stop laughing :D). I'll have to wait until Saturday to put up my 'mug-punts', but I really can't go against the Steelers tonight. Only very small stakes and more for added interest than anything else. SDSponger? Do you think we (Raiders) will be able to actually stop the run effectively and start eradicating the stupid penalties? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Eater Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Phins v Pit. First game is notorious for being a low scoring encounter maybe because the prevoius year's superbowl team retuns home. This coupled with the fact that both these teams have good in your face D's and both teams have changed QB's. Big Ben under the surgeon's knife and Charlie Batch replaces him and Dante moves in from the Vikes in Miami. The likelyhood is that both teams will want to establish the run. Under 34 for me. I will also take Pit to win, with homefield advantage in an emotional highly charged night game in Pittsburgh. The points before Big Ben went down was 5.5+. Pit win games by running and solid D, I'll still take Pit to win, they won twice last season when Batch started. Teams seem to overcome the loss of a key player, the market tends to overreact to the loss of key players. Good teams are good teams one player does not make this difference. So I'll take Pit at -1 even iin week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdsponger Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Stopping LT and Turner will be difficult. I know I'm sick of seeing LT rush for a 100+ yards in our house the last 2 years. I think we will do a better job of it this time though. Under Shell's first reign the team was pretty disciplined and I'm seeing some of that already this year. I'm sure we'll still see a few false starts though :( The main thing that bothers me is their lack of heart. I'm sick of seeing teams with less talent but with more heart beat us, especially at home. These young guys have no idea what it means to be a Raider. I think Shell will really try to bring that back. Gotta stop, I could ramble for days on this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 The total is now dropping slowly in the Steelers game. Its 34 at most books. i think its pretty low as it is.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 I feel your pain. I hope the Raiders can actually put the last 2 horrible seasons behind them' date=' get some friggin heart, minimize their mistakes and play as a team. If they don't, we'll be lucky to get 5 wins :unsure[/quote'] Raiders need to do what Aston Villa did and change the owner......i hope brooks does well cus his in my fanstasy league team lol :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdsponger Posted September 7, 2006 Author Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Raiders need to do what Aston Villa did and change the owner......i hope brooks does well cus his in my fanstasy league team lol :hopeYeah, the game has evolved and Al Davis hasn't in many ways. Me too, I may play him in one of my leagues maj69er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitalyo Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Pitt -2.0 now bet365. With Ben this line would be around -6.0. Line moved from PK to -2.0 in less then 24 hours.At the end punters are going with champs i knew it. GL!:cheers enjoy the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Pitt -2.0 now bet365. With Ben this line would be around -6.0. Line moved from PK to -2.0 in less then 24 hours.At the end punters are going with champs i knew it. GL!:cheers enjoy the game. a word of warning my friend. i am watching the lines in the usa. The Uk lines dont mean much to me until i bet and this games lines are volatile....its been fluctuating from 1.5 to 2 a lot....Still over 1hr left anything can happen. BOL to you tho...:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Note the line at Mirage in vegas is still at 1 and at Caesars.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xanboo Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) Both teams finish off last year season strong. Miami won six in a row, while the Steelers won eight straight. Expecting a close brawl tonight even without Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh's defense should be able to control the game and put pressure on Miami’s quarterback Daunte Culpepper, who last season threw 12 interceptions. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five season-opening games and have won four of the last six meetings. Go easy, this contest has too many scenarios that can play into the outcome. Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 bet365 just like the usa back to -1.5 as of this moment....this is a crazy line... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) Both teams finish off last year season strong. Miami won six in a row' date= while the Steelers won eight straight. Expecting a close brawl tonight even without Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh's defense should be able to control the game and put pressure on Miami’s quarterback Daunte Culpepper, who last season threw 12 interceptions. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five season-opening games and have won four of the last six meetings. Go easy, this contest has too many scenarios that can play into the outcome. Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 :welcome and BOL to you.....:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maj69er Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 I forgot to mention a heavy amount of Money Line action for Miami.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McFly Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 great work here guys keep it up! :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xanboo Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 :welcome and BOL to you.....:hope Thank You Sir :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digi Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Thank you Daunte, owe ya a beer :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitalyo Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 Thank you Daunte' date=' owe ya a beer :)[/quote'] LOL:rollin :rollin :rollin . So much for Maimi running game 38 yards in total HAHAHA:lol :lol :lol No running game = interceptions. Pitt DIFENCE prevails again. Don't hang your head down Miami backers, Buffalo is coming to town next week. You can get all your money back then.(assuming they can manage to run more than 38 freak'in yards). I just called Sabien to let him know that my grandmother is available for fullback position! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 First game down, and I realise what I both love and hate about the sport right away! ;) The whole challenge system is totally ****ed...has been pretty much since the start. We saw today a perfect example (2 really!) of why it shouldn't exist...firstly, what the hell was the official looking at??!! He was about 2 metres from it and immediately started looking around for other officials to have a chat too?! wtf?...He clearly went out, and if you can't see that then give it away! Second, obviously was that the challenge flag was thrown, but not seen and so ignored. What are you going to do? Run out on the field and risk a penalty?? Pelt it at the nearest guys head? Just seems utterly rediculous to me that such a professional, sport with massive $$ involved, has such a Mickey Mouse system that gets shown to have flaws nearly every week. (ie. you can challenge some things and not others...it has to be in time...etc. etc.) But not such a bad game to kickoff the season with. Pittsburgh D came up big when it needed to...and so did Batch! Nice job to everyone on the Steelers. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: NFL Football Week 1 EDIT: Sorry...seem to be having some problems pasting from Word. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.