Djordje Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 This system is another (I hope improved) version of my previous systems based on HDA percentage estimations. In this version I will use ratings (my own ratings) to select possible bets. This ratings are theoretically values between -1 and 1, but in practice that will hardly happen that team have those extreme values. Possible bets will be divided in two groups - one group will be some kind of normal or expected bets (GroupA), and another group will be group of statistically dangerous bets (GroupB), where some of the bets will look pretty obvious, but teams involved might be in long losing or winning streak, whatever. After possible bets are selected, I'll apply ValueEstimations to see if prices on selected outcomes are worth betting, and than determine stakes. I will test this system on English leagues - from Championship to Nationwide Conference; bets in usual 1-10 stakes. Each week I will list all candidates for bets, early in the week, and later when odds are available, final bets will be shown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings GroupA Crystal Palace(0.250) vs Burnley(0.200) - draw Stoke(0.100) vs Plymouth(0.150) - draw Wolverhampton(0.050) vs Luton(0.100) - draw Bradford(0.500) vs Rotherham(-0.100) - home win Leyton Orient(-0.050) vs Swansea(-0.050) - draw Macclesfield(-0.600) vs Wycombe(0.200) - away win Torquay(0.100) vs Chester(0.050) - draw Walsall(0.550) vs Darlington(0.000) - home win York(0.533) vs Burton(-0.067) - home win Grays(0.600) vs Woking(-0.333) - home win GroupB Yeovil(-0.100) vs Port Vale(0.700) - away win Swindon(0.750) vs Stockport(-0.450) - home win Kidderminster(-0.067) vs Weymouth(0.733) - away win Oxford(0.800) vs Nortwich(-0.200) - home win Tamworth(-0.933) vs Exeter(0.533) - away win *number in brackets are ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings GroupA Crystal Palace vs Burnley- draw @3.50 3/10, bet365 Stoke vs Plymouth - draw @3.25 6/10, bet365 Bradford vs Rotherham - home win @1.80 10/10, paddy power Macclesfield vs Wycombe - away win @2.50 3/10, skybet Walsall vs Darlington - home win @2.00 10/10, bet365 GroupB Yeovil vs Port Vale - away win @2.75 10/10, ladbrokes Kidderminster vs Weymouth - away win @2.62 10/10, skybet Tamworth vs Exeter - away win @2.20 10/10, skybet Swindon as possibility if I get 1.55 or sth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Good luck with this Djordje. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Good luck with this Djordje. thanks Dave :ok Swindon are available @1.55 at expekt now GroupB Swindon vs Stockport - home win @1.55 5/10, expekt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings And another one goes to group B, dont know how I missed this banker ;) Sunderland(-0.700) vs West Brom(0.200) - away win GroupB Sunderland vs West Brom - away win @2.50 10/10, paddy power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings djordje do you make those values using ur head or some algorithm ? imo nothing can replace knowledge, cos there is too much things to consider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings djordje do you make those values using ur head or some algorithm ? imo nothing can replace knowledge, cos there is too much things to consider Hi LaMunxo Those ratings are based on some statistical parameters but they are not something 100% exact really - I tried to keep at as objective as possible, but I'm not sure it was the case. On the other hand HDA percentages are based on pure stats - teams' record, home and away, recent form and sometimes on H2H stats, if available. I dont consider facts like injuries, motivation and similar things which cant be shown in numbers. I used system based on only those HDA estimations earlier, and it was giving good results in The Championship, but was pretty risky - it had pretty poor hitrate, but there were some long shots which kept it in profit. This time I tried to find a way to select possible bets with those ratings, trying to keep it as objective as possible, but value is still something I rate as the most important thing in betting, so this mix of selecting bets from possible candidates will hopefully gie better results. There are too many 10/10 bets at the moment, but reason for that is only 3-4 rounds played in those leagues so far; later in the season this number (of 10/10 bets) will decrease. Let's wait and see what happens :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted August 25, 2006 Share Posted August 25, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Ok. Have to say, that motivation,injuries,suspensions,interviews etc are the most important indicators of value,at least it hink they are. Wish you good luck, tho it dont matter here ;) Proving a system takes long runs, good start seem to be to test on previous years. I have seen qute some rateform systems etc and even if they were lets say up 20% after 50 bets or 10% after 100, then they all settled around 0%. plus minus something little. Dont see much use in that, thats why i think theres no replacement for knowledge and good analysis of a match. gl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 26, 2006 Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings good luck with this djordje - will watch with interest mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Ok. Have to say, that motivation,injuries,suspensions,interviews etc are the most important indicators of value,at least it hink they are. Factors you mentioned can help you determine the outcome of particular match, but surely cant tell you anything about value - it's all about maths for me, mate ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings good luck with this djordje - will watch with interest mate. thanks aliando, I hope there will be few winners :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaMunxo Posted August 26, 2006 Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Factors you mentioned can help you determine the outcome of particular match' date=' but surely cant tell you anything about value - it's all about maths for me, mate ;)[/quote'] just to explain what i meant... as value is just difference in odds and ur expectation and i think,same as you look on h2h or whatever, you look on injuries and by that you move ur probability/expectaton(85% with some suspensions or 90% if noone suspended)... and i think those suspension/injury things are very important so you can make real guess... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings GroupA Crystal Palace vs Burnley- draw @3.50 3/10, +7.50 Stoke vs Plymouth - draw @3.25 6/10, +13.50 Bradford vs Rotherham - home win @1.80 10/10, -10.00 Macclesfield vs Wycombe - away win @2.50 3/10, +4.50 Walsall vs Darlington - home win @2.00 10/10, +10.00 Profit : +25.50 GroupB Yeovil vs Port Vale - away win @2.75 10/10, -10.00 Kidderminster vs Weymouth - away win @2.62 10/10, +16.20 Tamworth vs Exeter - away win @2.20 10/10, -10.00 Swindon vs Stockport - home win @1.55 5/10, +2.75 Sunderland vs West Brom - away win @2.50 10/10, Monday Profit without Sunderland v WBA : -1.05 GroupA much better, as expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings High/Low PerformanceRating teams The Championship Cardiff 0.600 ----------------- Sunderland -0.700 League One Nottm Forest 0.520 League Two Swindon 0.760 Walsall 0.560 ------------------- Stockport -0.520 Rochdale -0.600 Macclesfield -0.640 Conference Oxford 0.850 Weymouth 0.700 Grays 0.650 Stafford 0.550 York 0.550 --------------------- Stevenage -0.500 Cambridge -0.600 Tamworth -0.600 Forest Green -0.750 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 26, 2006 Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings nice start with group 1, mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings nice start with group 1' date=' mate![/quote'] cant complain ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Conference on Monday GroupA Burton(-0.200) 0.05 Southport(-0.250) - draw Dagenham(0.150) 0.75 Cambridge(-0.600) - home win Exeter(0.300) -0.05 Crawley(0.350) - draw Rushden(-0.050) -0.60 York(0.550) - away win Nortwich(-0.400) -1.05 Grays(0.650) - away win GroupB no candidates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings GroupA Burton vs Southport- draw @3.40 10/10, willhill Dagenham vs Cambridge - home win @2.10 10/10, skybet Exeter vs Crawley - draw @3.50 no bet Rushden vs York - away win @2.80 10/10, willhill Nortwich vs Grays - away win @2.37 10/10, betfred Only few bookies published odds for Monday games, but to be honest I cant imagine better prices than these.:unsure 10/10 on Burton v Southport draw looks dodgy maybe, but I see no reason why Burton should be so big favorites in this match. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Few more for today GroupA Oldham(-0.350) -0.60 Carlisle(0.250) - away win Oldham v Carlisle, away win @3.25 10/10, skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Few more for today I mean one :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Oldham v Carlisle, away win @3.25 10/10, -10.00 Profit GroupA : 15.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Burton vs Southport- draw @3.40 10/10, -10.00 Dagenham vs Cambridge - home win @2.10 10/10, +11.00 Rushden vs York - away win @2.80 10/10, +18.00 Nortwich vs Grays - away win @2.37 10/10, +13.70 GroupB Sunderland vs West Brom - away win @2.50 10/10, -10.00 fcuking Southport had to win today :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings GroupA odds average :: 2.70 stake :: 82 hit rate :: 0.70 won :: 130.2 profit :: 48.2 yield :: 58.78% GroupB odds average :: 2.32 stake :: 45 hit rate :: 0.40 won :: 33.95 profit :: -11.05 yield :: -24.56% GroupA+GroupB profit :: 37.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings High/Low PerformaceRatings Teams Cardiff 0.600 Nottm Forest 0.520 Swindon 0.760 Walsall 0.560 ------------- Stockport -0.520 Rochdale -0.600 Macclesfield -0.640 Grays 0.720 Oxford 0.680 Weymouth 0.560 York 0.520 --------------- Nortwich -0.520 Forest Green -0.600 Cambridge -0.640 Tamworth -0.640 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings sorry, those ratings are not calculated well Anyway, here are candidates for weekend. Final selections in few days when odds are published. GroupA Brentford(0.050) -0.60 Bradford(0.650) - away win Nottm Forest(0.550) 0.70 Chesterfield(-0.150) - home win Carlisle(0.100) 0.10 Chelthenham(0.000) - draw Grimsby(-0.650) -0.10 Macclesfield(-0.550) - draw Hartlepool(-0.250) 0.00 Boston(-0.250) - draw Lincoln(0.600) 0.55 Accrington(0.050) - home win Barnet(-0.200) -0.75 Walsall(0.550) - away win Milton Keynes(0.350) -0.10 Notts County(0.450) - draw Rochdale(-0.600) -0.50 Hereford(-0.100) - away win Stockport(-0.500) -0.50 Bristol Rvs(0.000) - away win Cambridge(-0.600) -0.90 Exeter(0.300) - away win Oxford(0.650) 0.85 St Albans(-0.200) - home win Crawley(0.150) 1.00 Nortwich(-0.850) - home win GroupB Chester(-0.100) -0.90 Swindon(0.800) - away win Grays(0.850) 1.30 Burton(-0.450) - home win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Norwich 0.650 Cardiff 0.550 --------------------- Hull -0.500 Bradford 0.65 Nottm Forest 0.55 --------------------- Gillingham -0.500 Bristol City -0.667 Swindon 0.8 Lincoln 0.6 Walsall 0.55 --------------------- Stockport -0.5 Macclesfield -0.55 Rochdale -0.6 Grimsby -0.65 Grays 0.85 Oxford 0.65 York 0.65 Weymouth 0.5 --------------------- Cambridge -0.6 Forest Green -0.6 Tamworth -0.6 Nortwich -0.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 28, 2006 Author Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings Some bookies already published odds, and with their habbit to set odds by patterns (2.37 & 2.75 for away wins for example), I think we have early value in few games, and I dont expect better odds till Friday. GroupA Nottm Forest v Chesterfield - home win @1.61 10/10, skybet Grimsby v Macclesfield - draw @3.40 3/10, bet365 Barnetv Walsall - away win @2.37 10/10, bet365 Rochdale v Hereford - away win @2.75 10/10, skybet Stockport v Bristol Rvs - away win @2.75 10/10, bet365 GroupB Chester v Swindon - away win @2.37 10/10, coral Odds for Conference still not available, and for the other games in League One & Two, possibility are Bradford if someone gives ~3.35-3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted August 30, 2006 Author Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings And 2 games from Conference... Cambridge v Exeter, away win @2.60 10/10, stan james Crawley v Nortwich, home win @2.00 10/10, coral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: ValueEstimations/PerformanceRatings GroupA Grimsby v Macclesfield - draw @3.40 3/10, +7.20 Cambridge v Exeter, away win @2.60 10/10, +16.00 GroupB Chester v Swindon - away win @2.37 10/10, +13.70 3/3 today ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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