ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

[Mr Intensity]

Kitzbuhel main draw: (1) DAVYDENKO, Nikolay RUS v Bye LAPENTTI, Nicolas ECU v ZIB, Tomas CZE MARIN, Juan Antonio CRC v KOUBEK, Stefan AUT Bye v (15) PASHANSKI, Boris SCG (10) MIRNYI, Max BLR v Bye Qualifier v (WC) HAIDER-MAURER, Andreas AUT WASKE, Alexander GER v KUBOT, Lukasz POL Bye v (5) VERDASCO, Fernando ESP (4) GAUDIO, Gaston ARG v Bye Qualifier v MONACO, Juan ARG BERRER, Michael GER v GREMELMAYR, Denis GER Bye v (14) ROCHUS, Christophe BEL (9) CALLERI, Agustin ARG v Bye (WC) EITZINGER, Rainer AUT v MARACH, Oliver AUT Qualifier v HANESCU, Victor ROM Bye v (6) MASSU, Nicolas CHI (7) CHELA, Juan Ignacio ARG v Bye SCHUETTLER, Rainer GER v ZABALETA, Mariano ARG (WC) SANDBICHLER, Armin AUT v Qualifier Bye v (11) HORNA, Luis PER (13) KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER v Bye MINAR, Ivo CZE v Qualifier SABAU, Razvan ROM v Qualifier Bye v (3) NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN (8) YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS v Bye NORMAN, Dick BEL v VASSALLO ARGUELLO, Martin ARG (WC) ESCHAUER, Werner AUT v MASSA, Edgardo ARG Bye v (12) SEPPI, Andreas ITA (16) PAVEL, Andrei ROM v Bye DANIEL, Marcos BRA v MONTANES, Albert ESP HERNANDEZ, Oscar ESP v MELZER, Jurgen AUT Bye v (2) ROBREDO, Tommy ESP Probably Robredo again for me:ok LA main draw: (1/WC) RODDICK, Andy USA vs. DE VOEST, Rik RSA QUALIFIER vs. (WC) OUDSEMA, Scott USA (WC) QUERREY, Sam USA vs. SPADEA, Vincent USA UDOMCHOKE, Danai THA vs. (8) TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS (3) GONZALEZ, Fernando CHI vs. MULLER, Gilles LUX SAFIN, Marat RUS vs. FISH, Mardy USA QUALIFIER vs. MAHUT, Nicolas FRA MALISSE, Xavier BEL vs. (5) AGASSI, Andre USA (7) HRBATY, Dominik SVK vs. MURRAY, Andy GBR QUALIFIER vs. BURGSMULLER, Lars GER CARLSEN, Kenneth DEN vs. SRICHAPHAN, Paradorn THA GIMELSTOB, Justin USA vs. (4) GINEPRI, Robby USA (6) HAAS, Tommy GER vs. QUALIFIER CAPDEVILLE, Paul CHI vs. CLEMENT, Arnaud FRA KUNITSYN, Igor RUS vs. TIPSAREVIC, Janko SCG GOLDSTEIN, Paul USA vs. (2) HEWITT, Lleyton AUS Mmm, don't think I like anything here:unsure Umag main draw: (1)Ferrer-Berlocq Garcia Lopez-q Di Mauro-Greul Novak-Moya(5) (4)Djokovic-Belic(WC) q-Gabashvili Vanek-q Dlouhy-Benneteau(7) (6)Martin-Wawrinka Korolev-Cilic(WC) (WC)Del Potro-Sluiter Vik-Coria(3) (8 )Volandri-Gicquel Ramirez Hidalgo-Vicente q-Hernych Portas-Ferrero(2) Damn, top half we've got 2 guys who've just won titles this week and Moya who you couldn't really trust. Bottom half Coria who's injured and guys like Volandri and Ferrero who are struggling. Tough draw to work out, but I think there may be some decent prices as it will certainly be tough to price up:tongue2.

[rhodri]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July thanks for putting up the main draw, will wait for tips as im not brilliant with tennis stuff

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Kitzbuhel
Selection	ROBREDO outright E/W (1/2, 1,2) (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	30/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 5.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I backed Robredo outright a couple of weeks ago as favourite and he got the job done, and I see no reason not to do it again. Exactly the same scenario, he has much the better half of the draw. In the top half, there's Davydenko, Massu and Gaudio which is quite a bit of action for a tournament like this. It should be one of those who comes through, but I don't want to try to choose which one. The bottom half looks much nicer, with really no one apart from Robredo! The only guy you could remotely see giving Robredo problems is Nieminen and he's in the other quarter, so they wouldn't meet until the semis. A couple of weeks ago Robredo played a couple of sloppy matches, but still got through, and found form in the final. He's had a good week off since then, and with the draw he has here he must fancy his chances of getting through to the final. If he makes it he's likely to be a slight favourite against any of the guys in the top half, and if it's a lesser name he's be a heavy favourite. Bet365 go as low as 3.75 and I think this price of 5.00 is good enough to take.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Umag
Selection	RAMIREZ-HIDALGO outright E/W (1/2, 1,2) (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	30/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	VC Bet @ 34.00 (Back)
Reasoning	This looks like a horrible draw to analyse, so I'm willing to go for an outsider. In the top half you've got Djokovic and Ferrer who have both just won tournaments, and I don't generally fancy guys coming off the back of the win, especially if they don't win too often. Also there's Moya, who has really struggled this year. I can't trust any of them to come through, so I'm looking the bottom half for some value. The third quarter has Coria, but he just retired a couple of days ago with another shoulder problem, so no way I'd be backing him. I'd probably fancy the winner of Martin/Wawrinka to come through, but I don't want to call that one. So that leaves us with the bottom quarter; big names Volandri and Ferrero. Volandri has been truly shocking lately, and I don't fancy him to suddenly hit form here. Ferrer is genrally very in and out and even if he gets a few wins, I'd fancy my guy to take him out. My choice is Ramirez-Hidalgo, who is in the form of his life and I think he can go far this week. Last week he reached the semis in Holland and picked up some good wins over Mathieu and Martin, before going down to Massu. That's pretty respectable, and with the draw he has here I think he can go well. First match is against Vicente which should be pretty straight forward, and after that the winner of Volandri and Gicquel. He should be alright for that considering how Volandri is playing lately and then we're really into the tournament and we can try to ride this price to the final!

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July looks like another davydenko-robredo final. cracking price on robredo. I'm going to open an sj account to get some of that I think. like you said nieminen looks the only real threat.

[maj69er]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July Nieminen seems to have picked up some form since wimbledon... Best of luck wioth your selections MR Intensity! majid

[ridle]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July In my eyes, both Del Potro and Korolev are worth ew flutters at Paddy Power , 66/1 and 40/1. other bookies are going way lower and both have already shown they can play on clay - that's for UMAG btw

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Kitzbuhel
Selection	CALATRAVA v Hanescu
Strength	10/10
Date	24/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	At this price, you have to oppose Hanescu. He's only played 7 matches this year and lost all of them. The last one was an absolute shocker at the start of May against Roddick. Not really sure what's been wrong with him but first match since then I think he's going to find it very hard. Calatrava is a solid player and came through qualifying very easily and I think he can get it done here.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Umag
Selection	GICQUEL v Volandri
Strength	10/10
Date	24/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.62 (Back)
Reasoning	I first saw Gicquel on clay at the French where he ran Kiefer extremely close. Since then he's got som game going, getting good challenger results and last week getting a couple of wins in Holland before going down to eventual champion Djokovic. On the other hand, Volandri really seems to be going downhill lately. At the French he imploded against Berdych and since then he's shown nothing. Even in a challenger in Italy he only picked up one win before losing to Vinciguerra. In 2 ATP events since then he's lost in the first round twice including one to Junqueira which is truly shocking. In these small events I like to go witht he guy in form, and Gicquel is my man here. £206 available.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Umag
Selection	VENTURA v Vanek
Strength	10/10
Date	24/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 2.37 (Back)
Reasoning	Although Ventura is ranked quite a bit lower, I rate these guys pretty equally on clay and with Ventura coming through qualifying I have to give him an edge. Ventura actually went all the way through April to the start of June without picking up a win but I think he's getting it back. He had a 3 week break and since then has reached the 2nd round of 3 qualifiers (getting 1 win in each!) but here is where I think he's finding form getting 3 wins without dropping a set. Vanek has been more solid this year, but I don't really rate him, and I want a go with Ventura today.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Kitzbuhel
Selection	CALATRAVA v Hanescu
Strength	10/10
Date	24/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	At this price' date= you have to oppose Hanescu. He's only played 7 matches this year and lost all of them. The last one was an absolute shocker at the start of May against Roddick. Not really sure what's been wrong with him but first match since then I think he's going to find it very hard. Calatrava is a solid player and came through qualifying very easily and I think he can get it done here.

This has been cancelled, Hanescu pulled out, boring:eyes :eyes

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Umag
Selection	GICQUEL v Volandri
Strength	10/10
Date	24/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.62 (Back)
Reasoning	I first saw Gicquel on clay at the French where he ran Kiefer extremely close. Since then he's got som game going, getting good challenger results and last week getting a couple of wins in Holland before going down to eventual champion Djokovic. On the other hand, Volandri really seems to be going downhill lately. At the French he imploded against Berdych and since then he's shown nothing. Even in a challenger in Italy he only picked up one win before losing to Vinciguerra. In 2 ATP events since then he's lost in the first round twice including one to Junqueira which is truly shocking. In these small events I like to go witht he guy in form, and Gicquel is my man here. £206 available.

Retired after a set - bad start to the week:wall :wall :wall

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July I decided to do Moya e/w in Umag at 8.0 with bet365. Pretty much a horses for courses pick as he's won the event 4 times, was runner up last year and semi-finalist the year before. I also figured that there's a chance Ferrer, the top player in his qurter, might pull out given that he was involved in a marathon 5-setter yesterday. I haven't heard anything yet though. Djokovic is favourite but young players tend to be unreliable the week after winning an event as Gasquet showed last week. As for Moya, he's done nothing in Europe this year but his form is really hard to assess given how tough his draws have been. If you overlook the defeat to Novak on his first match back after an injury lay-off he's only really been losing to very tough opponents lately; Nadal, Davydenko twice, Gonzalez, Massu and Blake. In Kitzbuhel I have 10pts on Robredo at 5 and 5pts on Davydenko at 7.0.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July Hi MR I Have you heard anything about a betting scandal going on today at tournament in Kitzbühel Austria? (taken from another forum link below) http://forum.bettingadvice.com//viewtopic.php?t=51153&start=25 Big betting scandal at tournament in Kitzbühel Austria. 1,8 Mio only traded in game between Argentinian Patricia und Austrian Haider-Maurer at betfair. In last 30min before game hugh drops Haider-Maurer at all bookies,who offered this game and increasing demand at Betfair on the unknown Austrian player. Even in second set when score was 6-7,0-1,15-40 and serve for Maurer...odds on Patricia dropped not below 1,45.Then in last set from start hugh demand on the Austrian. 80% of the money was traded on the Austrian finally. Aonther big scandal.A shame for tennis sports.A shame for bettors and all costumors who watched this f...d tennis game. ??? Regards,

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Hi MR I Have you heard anything about a betting scandal going on today at tournament in Kitzbühel Austria? (taken from another forum link below) http://forum.bettingadvice.com//viewtopic.php?t=51153&start=25 Big betting scandal at tournament in Kitzbühel Austria. 1,8 Mio only traded in game between Argentinian Patricia und Austrian Haider-Maurer at betfair. In last 30min before game hugh drops Haider-Maurer at all bookies,who offered this game and increasing demand at Betfair on the unknown Austrian player. Even in second set when score was 6-7,0-1,15-40 and serve for Maurer...odds on Patricia dropped not below 1,45.Then in last set from start hugh demand on the Austrian. 80% of the money was traded on the Austrian finally. Aonther big scandal.A shame for tennis sports.A shame for bettors and all costumors who watched this f...d tennis game. ??? Regards,

Yes, my qualifers system was on Patricia. Even when he was a set up he was around evens and at one set each the Austrian was around 1.18. Also the Ventura game had some very strange betting patterns (Vanek going from 1.7 to 1.4 pre match - not as big as the other game but still dodgy). It's a bad day:sad

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July Hi again Mr I, I just wandered if you knew why the games in Budapest did not finish today as there were quite a few games that were down to start at 11.30 am GMT and did not even start? I have tried to find out and can't find any answers only that they were postponed - was there bad weather or something? Regards,

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Hi again Mr I, I just wandered if you knew why the games in Budapest did not finish today as there were quite a few games that were down to start at 11.30 am GMT and did not even start? I have tried to find out and can't find any answers only that they were postponed - was there bad weather or something? Regards,

Yep, rain http://www.sonyericssonwtatour.com/newsroom/?ContentID=627 ;)

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July Cheers Mr I - I have to thank you for all your great tips on here as I do follow your threads closely and to be honest don't really get involved with Tennis and F1 as they really aren't my sport however whenever I am off and fancy a flutter I do get some great advice from your threads! Again well done and keep up the great work! :ok P.S. By the way who do you think will win in the Malisse and Agassi match tonight? Regards,

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

P.S. By the way who do you think will win in the Malisse and Agassi match tonight?

If I had to I'd go for Malisse. He was playing annoyingly well last week, and pushed Andre pretty hard at the Open last year. I know the H2H is something like 4-0 to Agassi but he's nowhere near that level. I won't play this because we can never be sure what sort of shape Agassi is in these days. Another thing is that this is the start of his "farewell tour" in the US and he could well get it together at some point.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July Just like to say it was an awful day today. One match was cancelled, one was a retirement after a set (just enough for the bet to stand) and the other was fixed:lol :lol :lol :lol. -20pts for the week, but I guess it can only get better:tongue2

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July To be honest I wouldn't bet on anymore games in that Kitzbuhel Tourny as who is to say no other matches may be fixed?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

To be honest I wouldn't bet on anymore games in that Kitzbuhel Tourny as who is to say no other matches may be fixed?

I know, so hard to have confidence. Just looked at the order of play for tomorrow and nothing appeals. May just wait for later in the week and stick to the bigger names:unsure

[Tulenos]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

To be honest I wouldn't bet on anymore games in that Kitzbuhel Tourny as who is to say no other matches may be fixed?

Well, I wouldn't say it's just down to this particular tourny. I guess everyone remembers that Gaudio v Safin match in France one or two seasons ago - and some might even remember young Davydenko who just turned up to lose when a fav in the first round - as well as some other Russian (not only) players;)

[kevshat]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July Anyone know why Murray dropped out of the Davis Cup at the weekend? I see he's playing Hrbaty today and 2.28 on Hrbaty looks tasty if Murray isn't going to be fully fit. I don't really like Murray that much so opposing him would be no problem :loon Cheers. :ok

[Azleaann]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July Murray injured his neck I think,,,well he was wearing a collar while sitting at the sidelines watching the remaining games.

[DamirJ]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Monaco vs Azzaro
Selection	Monaco to win
Strength	10/10
Date	25/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Eurobet @ 1.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Both guys are borned claycourters. Azzaro has 0-2 at ATP level this season and three losts in a row. In last 30 days he won only against Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo, but lost to players like Minar, Daniel, Hajek, Menendez-Maceiras and last week against Nicolas Devilder. On the other side, Juan Monaco also didn't had his best run at the begining of the season, but at least his last performances are standard. Monaco has 14-15 ATP record this year, which is very good comparing to results he had in first months of 2006. Last week he made a great job reaching qf's of Stuttgart Open defeating Berrer, Vliegen and Melzer.

[DamirJ]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Kohlschreiber vs Luczak
Selection	Kohlschreiber to win
Strength	10/10
Date	25/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 1.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Kohlschreiber has 19-13 record this season. Latelly, he is in a very good form. After quarterfinals of Hertogenbosch and third round of Wimbledon, he played semifinals in Gstaad. On his way to semies he defeated Di Mauro, Novak and Verdasco. On the other side, he lost to Gasquet in three sets. So, he should be in a good form plus he should fell in Kitzbuhel like at home. On the other hand, Peter Luczak is far away from his best form having only 5-8 this season. For example, he was losing against names like Oscar Hernandez, Calleri or Nicolas Lapentti. We have class difference here, and everything except a win for German will be big surprise. 2004 Furth Challenger 32 Clay (O) P.KOHLSCHREIBER 7-5 5-7 6-4

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Anyone know why Murray dropped out of the Davis Cup at the weekend? I see he's playing Hrbaty today and 2.28 on Hrbaty looks tasty if Murray isn't going to be fully fit. I don't really like Murray that much so opposing him would be no problem :loon Cheers. :ok

Az is correct...

Murray injured his neck I think,,,well he was wearing a collar while sitting at the sidelines watching the remaining games.

Apparently he suffered whiplash trying to get to a ball (didn't see it though):eek :eek

[DamirJ]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Pavel vs Daniel
Selection	Pavel to win
Strength	10/10
Date	25/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.61 (Back)
Reasoning	Pavel is quite good claycourter, although he has only 10-16 record for this season he looks very good at the moment. Although he had unimpresive start of the season, his performances begining from the end of May and Portschach tournament where he reached finals. On his way to final he won against Marcos Daniel 7-5 6-0. Two weeks ago Andrei played in Gstaad and reached third round defeating Wawrinka and Mirnyi. Last week he lost in first round against Del Porto and I really don't see him getting out twice in a row in first round. On the other hand, Daniel Marcos has no major winnings in his career. Latelly, he is mixing challengers and ATP tournaments. In last 30 days he won against names like Meffert, Troicki, but lost to Vassalo-Arguello, Gaston Gaudio and Sergei Stakhovsky. So, Pavel is more expirienced, in much better form and with a h2h advantage from couple of months this bet looks to me for a full stake.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

I decided to do Moya e/w in Umag at 8.0 with bet365. Pretty much a horses for courses pick as he's won the event 4 times, was runner up last year and semi-finalist the year before. I also figured that there's a chance Ferrer, the top player in his qurter, might pull out given that he was involved in a marathon 5-setter yesterday. I haven't heard anything yet though. Djokovic is favourite but young players tend to be unreliable the week after winning an event as Gasquet showed last week. As for Moya, he's done nothing in Europe this year but his form is really hard to assess given how tough his draws have been. If you overlook the defeat to Novak on his first match back after an injury lay-off he's only really been losing to very tough opponents lately; Nadal, Davydenko twice, Gonzalez, Massu and Blake.

Ferrer has indeed pulled out so that's step one out of the way. I'm sure he'll go and lose to Novak now that I've got my hopes up.

[DamirJ]

Re: ATP Kitzbuhel/LA/Umag 24th-30th July

Sport	Tennis
Event	Del Potro vs Sluiter
Selection	Del Potro to win
Strength	10/10
Date	25/07/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.57 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, Raemon Sluiter isn't such a good player for clay. He has good serve and he bases his game on serve, but that's not the best way to play on clay. He had some nice performances on grass this season, but since WImbledon he didn't play any match, so this will be his first claycourt tournament since the begining of June. AT French Open he defeated Nieminen who was injured and out of form Lapentti. Before French Open he played in Zagreb and struggled against unknown Tkalec, but lost in second round against Tuksar. On the other side, Del Potro is one of the future's stars. He is only 17 years old, but already has some really interesting performances. He is typical claycourter, latelly he has nice results reaching third round of Stuttgart Open and defeating Pavel and Chela. He has been given a wildcard for this tournament. I believe he will use it as good as possible. Del Potro to win looks like a decent bet here.