merlin Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Cheers young fella, do pop back and see us.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Evening all :ok, a pick for the +2's on Thursday night live game in the Blue Square Conference is Rushden & Diamonds @ 1.85. Now i've watched both of the teams this season & i'm confident that this away will come in :ok:ok:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 9, 2008 Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. clarky, what bets are you covering from the MW sheets? norms? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Muppet77, I'm covering away wins from the sheets, the +2's are what they say, 2 goal difference, Norms are just away wins on the sheets....but as there were so many bets over a weekend peroid sometimes 18-20 i (with merlins suggestions) started to use the racing & football outlooks ratings which now narrows the bets down to around 5 per weekend. I use the RFO home/ away ratings for both of the systems using all five leagues in England + the Spanish,Italian & German ones....hope this helps... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. One game for this weekend in the EPL Unders Portsmouth v Middlesboro UNDER 2.5 GOALS Stake £1 Odds 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Evening all :ok, a pick for the +2's on Thursday night live game in the Blue Square Conference is Rushden & Diamonds @ 1.85. Now i've watched both of the teams this season & i'm confident that this away will come in :ok:ok:beer 20 mins to go, 4 quick goals fron R&D means the +2's get off to a winning start....:clap:clap:beer:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... OK first selection of the new season for the 3-0 system...... it's Burton Albion (H) at odds 1.82 Betfair. Here's hoping this will be the first of many.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Good Luck Merlin, i will be following as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. One pick for the Norms Histon @ 2.7 GL to you Merlin I will be following as usual,GL as always to Barrheed as well, going to be away for the next weekends (20th) picks, but normal service will be resumed for the 27th Sept... cheers all.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. No picks for this weekend in my 'lay 3 goal losers' system. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 12, 2008 Author Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... thanks fellas for the good wishes, and hope that your season too is a profitable one.Good luck for all those selections yet to come.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 12, 2008 Author Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... thanks for all the good wishes fellas.May your season be full of good things and a profitable one.Good luck to all those selections yet to come.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Merlin, did you do the Conference games, Crawley Town - Grays Athletic on 2nd September and Mansfield - Eastbourne Borough on the 6th September, both of which according to my record were 3-0s (3-0 and 4-1 predictions respectively) and both came out winners? I rather stupidly missed these at the time as I didn't realise how far ahead of the other leagues in terms of games played the conference were. The conference stats are quite interesting with 16 correct predictions from 97 on the correct scores (16.5% strike rate) up to last week, including as you say those two nice ones last week, one of which was a 3-2, normally the correct predictions are your 0-0s, 1-0s, 1-1s, 0-1s and 2-1s, I don't know if there's much liquidity and availability of decent prices in the conference on cs betting but I'll have a look, plus I don't want to read to much into what's a fairly smalll sample at the mo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 15, 2008 Author Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi there fella. No Conference, or for that matter any games covered prior to this week due to the few number of games played to date.Those two games I did remark on were from an interest point of view only as they were both spot on as far as the scores went. Saturday we kicked off with a loser when Burton Albion could only manage a draw with Weymouth, so 0 from 1 currently.There should be selections this week as the Championship play Tuesday and that brings it up to six when I usually start in ernest,so hoping for some good results.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Merlin, the reason I mentioned those two 3-0s above was that they came after your six game threshold had been reached, the Conference having played many more than the higher leagues. I might try and track the draws or some flavour of the draw predictions this season, anyone got any ideas of a refinement of draw selections as there may well be too many to realistically wager on all of them? Also here's some of the basic stats so far from my records of the predictions and their corresponding actual results. I'm going to try to develop things a bit further and extrapolate more things from the predictions but my Excel abilities are limited and my approach a bit Heath Robinson at the mo. The real fun would begin if I could include price information into the analysis but this is beyond me for now, something to aim for I guess. All 5 English Leagues Total Matches 338 Total Goals 918 2.72 per game Total Predicted Goals 825 2.44 per game Home Wins 155 46% Drawn Matches 82 24% Away Wins 101 30% Correct Score Pred % 10.1% 34 from 338 Accuracy Overall 1X2 Prediction % 39.1% 132 from 338 Home Prediction % 49.7% 76 from 153 Draw Prediction % 30.9% 25 from 81 Away Prediction % 29.8% 31 from 104 O/U 2.5 Prediction % 47.9% 162 from 338 Over 2.5 Prediction % 46.8% 65 from 139 Under 2.5 Prediction % 48.7% 97 from 199 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Today we have 2 games for 'Lay 3 goal losers': Bet no. 5: Lay Crystal Palace against Wolverhampton @ 5,7 to win 20 :hope Bet no. 6: Lay Nottingham F. against Preston North End @ 5,1 to win 10 :hope -edit- I decided to include English lower leagues also ;) Since Crystal has a poor form and a lot of players are injured while home team is in a great shape I put 20 on Wolves instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 16, 2008 Author Share Posted September 16, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... great set of stats you have there Eddie, I'm sure that they will come in very handy at some time or other.Surprising the stats for the over/under 2.5 not a lot of difference there at all.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Bet no. 5: Lay Crystal Palace against Wolverhampton @ 5,7 to win 20 :clap (Wolves won 2-1) Bet no. 6: Lay Nottingham F. against Preston North End @ 5,1 to win 10 :clap (PNE won 2-1) 100% so far :P Starting bank: 200€ Total bets: 6 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Current bank: 261,75 Profit/Loss: +61,75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 16, 2008 Author Share Posted September 16, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ...... well done Lorenzo, a great set of results and 100% so far. Keep up the good work and hope to see many more.:ok Both of these were early 3-0 forecasts but did not qualify due to lack of matches played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 17, 2008 Author Share Posted September 17, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ...... OK after the first selection went down last weekend, there is only one selection again this week for the 3-0 system :- MILLWALL (H) 1.74 betfair. Hoping to break the duck!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 17, 2008 Author Share Posted September 17, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. One game for the EPL Unders this weekend, WBA v Aston Villa Under 2.5 goals Stake £1 Odds 1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. One pick today: Bet no. 7: Lay Hannover against Leverkusen @ 6,2 to win 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. out of interest what does MW have as th epredicted score for aldershot gillingham, league 2? i am working on my own version of his sheets and have that as a strong pick (as is millwall, napped in an earlier post) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... the prediction against my list Martin is 3-2 to Aldershot, so a non qualifier here.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. One pick today: Bet no. 7: Lay Hannover against Leverkusen @ 6,2 to win 20 :clap (Leverkusen won 4-0) Exactly like the spreadsheets said: 4-0. Starting bank: 200€ Total bets: 7 Winning bets: 7 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Current bank: 80,75 Profit/Loss: +80,75 Tomorrow there are several pick, but it's late and I will go to bed. Post pick tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. OK. New day, new picks. Bet no. 8: Lay Newcastle against West Ham @ 4,3 to win 10€ :hope Bet no. 9: Lay Cheltenham against Millwall @ 5,6 to win 10€ :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. thanks merlin. using part of the MW sheets i have an idea that may produce a small yield. his away teams look good, using my backtesting. in a 4 fold, cardiff leicester forfar wigan (monday) to all draw or win away from home. with bwin odds of 6.22. so a £5 bet profits £26.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. barrhead73, what's your criteria for selecting your Unders Picks. I've been thinking of doing Unders for matches predicted to have one goal or less (0-0, 1-0. 0-1). I had also thought of doing plain old draws but this would produce too many selections to be viable. I'm going to wait until eight games have been played so only the conference is in play at the moment and todays picks on the Unders based on goal or less per game would be, just paper trailing at the mo, and I'll try to get price data later from bet brain Ebbsfleet United Woking Oxford United Crawley Town York City Salisbury City Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. thanks merlin. using part of the MW sheets i have an idea that may produce a small yield. his away teams look good, using my backtesting. in a 4 fold, cardiff leicester forfar wigan (monday) to all draw or win away from home. with bwin odds of 6.22. so a £5 bet profits £26.10 cardiff :clap leicester :clap forfar :clap wigan (monday) PENDING BOOM! ok, a good start, but what do i do? i could back spurs to beat wigan and land a £11.35 profit either way from an initial £5 bet, or i can let the treble ride out and try to make a profit of £26.10. any advice? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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