Sousa Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission I'm glad to see this thread back to life. :clap Good luck mate. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty third bet: Exceedingly Bold (2.10 Hamilton) placed (9/4) Get A Grip (2.30 Kempton) won (3/1) Hawkit (3.10 Hamilton) lost Oneofapear (4.10 Hamilton) won (9/4) 15 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 450 points. 83.60 points profit. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 3060.70 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 53 Profit/Loss: +459.49 (Win half: -212.49. Place half: +671.99) Including benefit from 2x bonus: 81.53 Yield: 28.90% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission nice one :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty fourth bet: Ghost (2.30 Pontefract) Walamo (3.40 Fontwell) Florensky (4.30 Pontefract) Cloudesley (5.30 Kempton) 15 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 450 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJ Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission keep up the good work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Where and how do you check prices ? Can't seem to find a location with both Win and Place prices on one page, so trying to find selections seems like a bit of a cumbersome enterprise ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Where and how do you check prices ? Can't seem to find a location with both Win and Place prices on one page, so trying to find selections seems like a bit of a cumbersome enterprise ? I don't go through every race. I know the kind of races that are likely to give a selection (very short-priced favourite, or 8+ runners with short-priced first and second favourites): it's rare that I'll look at more than 6 or 7 races on any one day. I look at all the races on an odds comparison site (usually oddschecker, as it displays all the races for one meeting on a single page with best odds for the first few in the betting, so it's easy to pick out the races which might give selections, and then look at win+place prices on betfair for those races. By the way, only one 4/1 place last time, so a loss of 423 points. A discrepancy has crept into the win/place/total figures, so I'll try and track that down before I update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Still sounds cumbersome :lol if only you could do a bit of programming ;) What about the timing ? If you look really early then there is likely to be quite a gap between the back and lay price on the place market, not a lot you can do with that as you just don't know how that will evolve. If you look by the time the market has more or less settled you are basically getting close to lunchtime for the first races right ? Do you ignore the gap that still might be there or do you take the middle price ? E.g. place market back=1.28 lay = 1.34 do you use the 1.28 or assume it will go to 1.31 ? Then there's how the market moves because if you look at prices at lunch time and find a selection by the time the race goes off the market could have shifted and you find there's no more value in the place price. Does this happen often or is there some strange consistency going on ? ( or you just don't know ? ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty fourth bet: Ghost (2.30 Pontefract) lost Walamo (3.40 Fontwell) lost Florensky (4.30 Pontefract) lost Cloudesley (5.30 Kempton) placed (4/1) 15 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 450 points. 423 points loss. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 2637.70 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 54 Profit/Loss: +431.29 (Win half: -227.49. Place half: +658.79) Including benefit from 2x bonus: 81.53 Yield: 26.62% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission By the way, only one 4/1 place last time, so a loss of 423 points. A discrepancy has crept into the win/place/total figures, so I'll try and track that down before I update. Fixed now. What about the timing ? If you look really early then there is likely to be quite a gap between the back and lay price on the place market, not a lot you can do with that as you just don't know how that will evolve. If you look by the time the market has more or less settled you are basically getting close to lunchtime for the first races right ? Do you ignore the gap that still might be there or do you take the middle price ? E.g. place market back=1.28 lay = 1.34 do you use the 1.28 or assume it will go to 1.31 ? I generally look around 11.00am. I use the lay price, though if a selection is borderline I'll look at what prices have actually been matched. If there's a big gap between back and lay prices I'll sometimes make a note to look at it again later. Then there's how the market moves because if you look at prices at lunch time and find a selection by the time the race goes off the market could have shifted and you find there's no more value in the place price. Does this happen often or is there some strange consistency going on ? ( or you just don't know ? ) I haven't really looked systematically at how the place prices develop on Betfair during the day. When I have looked, then yes, sometimes the price has drifted so that I'm not getting value. But sometimes the price has moved the other way. But there don't often seem to be huge shifts. More significant is that, since I'm doing these at SP, the actual price I'm getting can be very different from what I expect. I have had selections that looked (from the early prices) as though they'd be around 5/1 starting as short as 5/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission For a mathematician your method seems to be quite slapdashisch :loon Let me see if i can put this in perspective. a) You check prices fairly early with early Betfair markets. b) You bet using SP and therefore you don't know what price you'll actually be getting. c) Even when using fixed prices the Betfair market will move after you've made your bets. b+c) You appear to have value in the place price when placing bets but actually you simply don't know if you end up getting value at actual prices at the off when the markets (both Betfair and SP) close. d) So only the fact that you are showing a profit over time justifies the conclusion that you DO get value in the place prices. Would you agree with this conclusion: Your result seems quite dependent on your individual method used. If someone was to do this on his own with a slightly different method, for example checking prices at a different moment in time, then that person might get a different result. Actually i think it's quite likely to get different results and could even be a loss as selections will be different. So one should either follow your selections blindly as they are the result of a proven process. Or first find a selection process that can be repeated consistently over time, for yourself, and run a paper trail first to see if that method also produces a profit. Rather than trust the assumption that what works for you will also work for another individual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission For a mathematician your method seems to be quite slapdashisch :loon The clue is in the user name. ;) Would you agree with this conclusion: Your result seems quite dependent on your individual method used. If someone was to do this on his own with a slightly different method, for example checking prices at a different moment in time, then that person might get a different result. Actually i think it's quite likely to get different results and could even be a loss as selections will be different. Certainly it's true that somebody who looks at a different time will (sometimes) get different selections. Though in this thread I'm trying to stick to "clear" selections, so I'm not sure that doing it, say, half an hour later would make a huge difference to whether it's profitable, though it would sometimes make a difference to the individual selections. As for "early prices v SP", ideally I'd wait until the last possible moment to decide whether to bet, but I do have a day job! I'm sure that just using a bookie with a "best odds guaranteed" offer would significantly increase profitability, but I don't know any bookies like that who let me bet more than token amounts on a Lucky 15 (I can sometimes get a reasonable amount on online at Ladbrokes in a combination of all possible multiple bets: doubles, trebles, accumulator, Lucky 15, yankee). Most of the money I bet on these myself is at high street bookies at lunchtime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Thanks, i'll have a go at a paper trail as soon as i find the time to make a little price scanner, going over prices manually is just not for me. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty fifth bet: Primo de Vida (2.10 Southwell) Consulate (3.00 Fontwell) Baron Del (4.05 Naas) Towy Boy (5.30 Southwell) 13 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 390 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty fifth bet: Primo de Vida (2.10 Southwell) placed (4/1) Consulate (3.00 Fontwell) won (5/2) Baron Del (4.05 Naas) won (2/1) Towy Boy (5.30 Southwell) placed (7/1) 13 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 390 points. 534.56 points profit. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 3172.26 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 55 Profit/Loss: +474.41 (Win half: -225.49. Place half: +699.91) Including benefit from 2x bonus: 81.53 Yield: 28.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty sixth bet: Bocamix (1.20 Market Rasen) Little Firecracker (2.00 Hereford) Kilflora (2.40 Limerick) Ravethebrave (3.35 Hereford) 16 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 480 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission All these selections seemed to be 2nd favourites, today. Was that the intention? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission All these selections seemed to be 2nd favourites' date=' today. Was that the intention?[/quote'] A lot of the selections will be 2nd or 3rd favourites in races with very short priced favourites, or clear 3rd favourites in races with short priced first and second favourites (though not all will). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty sixth bet: Bocamix (1.20 Market Rasen) lost Little Firecracker (2.00 Hereford) placed (11/4) Kilflora (2.40 Limerick) placed (9/2) Ravethebrave (3.35 Hereford) lost 16 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 480 points. 371.30 points loss. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 2800.96 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 56 Profit/Loss: +451.20 (Win half: -240.49. Place half: +691.70) Including benefit from 2x bonus: 81.53 Yield: 26.86% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission You must have balls of steel to make these kinds of bets! I'm a long way off this, haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission You must have balls of steel to make these kinds of bets! I'm a long way off this' date=' haha[/quote'] You do realize a point is only 1p? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted November 9, 2009 Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Oh haha. I was thinking £1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 20, 2009 Author Share Posted November 20, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty seventh bet: Humbie (12.15 Kelso) Four Strong Winds (1.05 Exeter) Vino Griego (2.05 Ascot) Six of Hearts (8.00 Dundalk) 14 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 420 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 21, 2009 Author Share Posted November 21, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty seventh bet: Humbie (12.15 Kelso) placed (4/1) Four Strong Winds (1.05 Exeter) placed (7/2) Vino Griego (2.05 Ascot) lost Six of Hearts (8.00 Dundalk) placed (3/1) 14 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 420 points. 158.82 points loss. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 2642.14 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 57 Profit/Loss: +439.86 (Win half: -255.49. Place half: +695.36) Including benefit from 2x bonus: 81.53 Yield: 25.72% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishbookiebankrupter Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Just wondering what bookmakers do you use that lets you stake a 1p bet.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Just wondering what bookmakers do you use that lets you stake a 1p bet.:clap Sorry, only just seen this. I wasn't being entirely serious about 1p stakes. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty eighth bet: Alaska View (12.10 Wetherby) Victory Parade (12.30 Chepstow) Maldon Prom (12.50 Southwell) Inside Dealer (1.35 Chepstow) 13 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 390 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty eighth bet: Alaska View (12.10 Wetherby) lost Victory Parade (12.30 Chepstow) lost Maldon Prom (12.50 Southwell) placed (5/1) Inside Dealer (1.35 Chepstow) lost 13 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 390 points. 364 points loss. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 2278.14 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 58 Profit/Loss: +411.86 (Win half: -270.49. Place half: +682.36) Including benefit from 2x bonus: 81.53 Yield: 23.67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifty nineth bet: Only The Best (12.20 Hexham) King Ozzy (12.40 Leicester) What a Steel (1.20 Hexham) The Hollinwell (2.50 Hexham) 12 point EW Lucky 15. Total stake 360 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Just wondering what bookmakers do you use that lets you stake a 1p bet.:clap stan james lets you stake 1p on any bet cheers hamcat:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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