mowgli77 Posted May 14, 2006 Share Posted May 14, 2006 I have noticed a few horses lately that won last time out and carry a penalty (usually 6lbs) but then the jockey negates this by claiming (usually 3 or 5 lbs) some weight back. My pc has been knackered for the last few days but there was rookery lad at 4's the other night and one I can't remember the day before at a decent price. Has anyone got any stats regarding this or has tried a system with something similar? The trainers are rather shrewd doing this and i think it could be quite profitable and easy to follow. There won't be many horses qualify for this each day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tezmac Posted May 14, 2006 Share Posted May 14, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Intersting mow,would also like stats for this,remeber a system from years ago to back the 2 claimers at the bottom of the card in hcps,tryed it a few years back but was not profitable with exchanges now could be worth looking at again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 14, 2006 Share Posted May 14, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Good luck Mowgli - certainly worth looking at, especially if you can find a good performing amateur jockey, who appears to be better than their allowance.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 14, 2006 Author Share Posted May 14, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Monday night 7.50 Towcester Petolinski carrying 7lb penalty but ridden by Tom Messenger who claims 7lb. The horse is a course and distance winner too and is the NAP by RP spotlight. Lifetime high of 78 and runs off 74. Very interesting. High Seasons 7.30 Windsor does not fit the criteria because it isn't running with a penalty but could follow up at a decent price for Saleem Golam claiming 3lbs. Also Abbey Cat 4.20 Redcar sent out quickly under a penalty and ridden by Winston, looks to have a great chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted May 14, 2006 Share Posted May 14, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer I think ill join you on petolinski mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted May 14, 2006 Share Posted May 14, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Aye, me too! In for a penny, in for a pound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Stuck these basic rules into my RSB software, Winner LTO, carrying a pen, claiming jockey, 2yo, 3yo & all aged handicaps. Results for 1991 to 2003 are, YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1991 19 116 16.38 10.68 9.21 1992 33 139 23.74 40.32 29.01 1993 21 138 15.22 -22.79 -16.51 1994 19 111 17.12 -9.45 -8.51 1995 23 130 17.69 -44.76 -34.43 1996 29 150 19.33 -25.88 -17.25 1997 24 135 17.78 -0.87 -0.64 1998 36 155 23.23 -6.28 -4.05 1999 37 170 21.76 20.58 12.11 2000 51 246 20.73 9.95 4.04 2001 40 230 17.39 -23.10 -10.04 2002 39 231 16.88 -26.31 -11.39 2003 37 213 17.37 -20.84 -9.78 ____________________________________________________________ 408 2164 18.85 -98.75 -4.56 Overall theres a loss but not a drastic amount, this could give the basis for a profitable system. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Ok so I've now added a few extra filters, the new rules are. Winner LTO Carrying a pen, up to 7lb Claiming jockey, 3lb & 5lb claims, no 7lb claimers 3yo & all aged handicaps, no 2yo's No amateur or ladies races Forcast at under 16/1 Colts & geldings only This gives, YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1991 12 39 30.77 31.05 79.62 1992 17 48 35.42 39.84 83.00 1993 10 45 22.22 1.04 2.31 1994 7 43 16.28 1.75 4.07 1995 9 49 18.37 -7.49 -15.29 1996 14 68 20.59 -7.83 -11.51 1997 15 70 21.43 20.55 29.36 1998 16 52 30.77 1.82 3.50 1999 21 74 28.38 53.13 71.80 2000 28 107 26.17 36.49 34.10 2001 19 94 20.21 2.13 2.27 2002 16 72 22.22 20.60 28.61 2003 15 91 16.48 -19.57 -21.51 ____________________________________________________________ 199 852 23.36 173.51 20.37 Three losing years from 13, all the rules can be seen from any paper apart from the horses sex. Hope this is of interest. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Ok so I've now added a few extra filters, the new rules are. Winner LTO Carrying a pen, up to 7lb Claiming jockey, 3lb & 5lb claims, no 7lb claimers 3yo & all aged handicaps, no 2yo's No amateur or ladies races Forcast at under 16/1 Colts & geldings only This gives, YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1991 12 39 30.77 31.05 79.62 1992 17 48 35.42 39.84 83.00 1993 10 45 22.22 1.04 2.31 1994 7 43 16.28 1.75 4.07 1995 9 49 18.37 -7.49 -15.29 1996 14 68 20.59 -7.83 -11.51 1997 15 70 21.43 20.55 29.36 1998 16 52 30.77 1.82 3.50 1999 21 74 28.38 53.13 71.80 2000 28 107 26.17 36.49 34.10 2001 19 94 20.21 2.13 2.27 2002 16 72 22.22 20.60 28.61 2003 15 91 16.48 -19.57 -21.51 ____________________________________________________________ 199 852 23.36 173.51 20.37 Three losing years from 13, all the rules can be seen from any paper apart from the horses sex. Hope this is of interest. Rio. Hi rio you've done some great work again with your stats as you did with the ones on my thread to do with the black spot. My only question is do they only run up to 2003 as we are now in 2006 % MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer good luck with this mate, I usually look for claimers for obvious reasons but never thought of making a system out of it. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Hi rio you've done some great work again with your stats as you did with the ones on my thread to do with the black spot. My only question is do they only run up to 2003 as we are now in 2006 % MAN % MAN, The software was rather expensive & the yearly upgrades are not cheap. I used it reseach some ideas from when I purchased it in 2003 & only bought the 2003 upgrade after that. I've sort of run out of new ideas a little so I just go with the ones I've done before and maybe if someone puts something up like this thread & yours. If anybody wants to take a look at their site heres the link. http://www.rsbweb.com/ If I'm not allowed to put the link in then I'm sureone of the mods will take it out. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sensibleboy Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer GL with this mate. I was on Petolinski when it won last time. I personally dont like backing horses when they are carrying a penalty and are turned out quickly but it should win to be honest, good luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 15, 2006 Author Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer I would like to thank everyone for their assistance and comments. The odds could be a very interesting thing to take into account with the filters. The bookies are not daft and also see a horse turned out quickly under a penalty as a possible winner and sometimes put up shorter odds which I don't touch. I'd suggest avoiding anything in this criteria that is odds on. I'll try go back through last weeks results when I get time to highlight some of the prices and winners that I recently spotted. Any help with this thread is greatly appreciated. I am not much of a systems man but I have noticed something that could possibly make us all some profit so I'm willing to put some work into it and give it a go. There might be certain trainers who do this more often than others. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Nice winner mate , take a look at PRAIRIE SUN in the 3.20 at NEWCASTLE tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 15, 2006 Author Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Took the 6-4 and went out, came back and gutted to see SP of 11-4. Did it run well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 15, 2006 Author Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Only the one for tomorrow as mentioned earlier. Prairie Sun 3.20 Newcastle. This looks to have a great chance tomorrow at expected odds of around 7-4. Up 6lbs, ran 3 days ago, ridden by Greg Fairley (5lb claimer) who often rides for Mark Johnstone. Distance winner, won last twice. Here are comments from Racing Post: SPOTLIGHT Won four on the trot in this month last year and halfway to repeating feat after shrugging off penalty off today´s mark with plenty in hand at Beverley on Saturday; handles any ground and her winning mentality counts for a lot. These were comments after last run in analysis: PRAIRIE SUN, a winner at Catterick earlier in the week, found no problems defying a penalty and came clear inside the last. She hit a purple patch at this time last year and looks to be replicating that form; she may turn out again at Newcastle on Tuesday. I can't really see it getting beat tomorrow and might lump on. Any change in the ground wouldn't really affect its chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordyboy20 Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Re: Beverley races (Sat) 2.15 PRAIRIE SUN (nap), who was in such devastating form in this month last year, was back in business earlier this week at Catterick! fordyboy20View Public ProfileSend a private message to fordyboy20Find More Posts by fordyboy20Add fordyboy20 to Your Buddy List 13-05-2006, 18:04 #9 fordyboy20 Newbie Punter Join Date: 02 May 2006 Posts: 12 Re: Beverley races (Sat) 2.15 PRAIRIE SUN (nap), my first nap has won hope u guys were on it! it won convincingly watch out if reappears agen in nxt few days! hope u guys was on it on sat? i have had a look at the card and is facing better opposition personally goin 2 leave it alone dont see no value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted May 15, 2006 Share Posted May 15, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Took the 6-4 and went out' date= came back and gutted to see SP of 11-4. Did it run well? I took 2.6 on betfair at 10am. Watched the race and it was never in danger, the jockey eased him right down to a virtual walking pace at the end to just win narrowly from a rapidly-finishing Happy Hussar (?). However, might struggle on heavier ground and/or with more weight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 16, 2006 Author Share Posted May 16, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Cheers for that traf. Prairie Sun was 2-1 fav and finished 4th. Only had a small bet on it, wanting to save some money for York Friday. Nearly lumped on it but glad i didn't now. I'll see if there are any more fit this criteria for tomorrow wheh the cards are online after 7pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 16, 2006 Author Share Posted May 16, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Nothing in this thread for Wednesday but I do fancy Mickey Pearce in 4.05 Exeter. Carrying small penalty and ridden by Richard Johnson if i'm thinking of the right horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 17, 2006 Author Share Posted May 17, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Just the one horse that fits the criteria today: George The Second 4.35 Salisbury Up 6lbs but ridden by Adam Kirby claiming 3lbs. Distance winner, form reads 3221 and some comments from RP site: SPOTLIGHT A win and couple of seconds from three starts in turf handicaps and appreciated soft conditions when scoring over this trip at Chepstow latest; clear form chance but could do with rain. Last time out: GEORGE THE SECOND, who was in the front rank throughout, made virtually all for a deserved success after a couple of near misses. Apparently unsuited by the fast surface at Yarmouth last time, he seemed much more at home on this rain-softened ground and, off the same mark, bravely saw off his challengers, staying on strongly close home despite drifting over to the stands' side. Despite having needed ten starts to finally break his duck, he could be the type to build on his first success and it's unlikely he'll be in line for anything other than a minimal rise in the weights given the strength of this contest. Might be worth a small bet, wouldn't lump on as it has hung a few times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 18, 2006 Author Share Posted May 18, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer George the Second was favourite and unplaced. 3 for Friday. Commando Scott 3.50 York, up 3lbs, ridden by P Mathers claiming 3lbs. Dist winner, form 2231. Scuzme 4.50 Nottingham, up 6lbs, ridden by S Donohoe claiming 5lbs, dist winner, ran 12 days ago. Lizarazu 5.20 Nottingham, up 6lbs, ridden by Tolley Dean claiming 7lbs, dist winner, ran 6 days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 20, 2006 Author Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Commando Scott 8th, never looked like winning. Scuzme 3rd but 7-2f, hung left over 1f out Lizarazu 9th, weakened final furlong. I'll keep the thread going a bit longer if there is no upturn in fortunes soon i'll scrap it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 20, 2006 Author Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer 3 for today Cashel Mead 1.55 Nottingham Stolen Glance 5.50 Thirsk Misterthetrixster 8.15 Worcester All look to have a decent chance today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 20, 2006 Author Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer Cashel Mead flew in at 7-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 21, 2006 Author Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Carrying a penalty but ridden by a claimer 1 winner and two 2nds Saturday but not at ew prices. One for Sunday was Merryvale Man which I think was placed. One for Monday is Petite Mac, won well the other day, is up 6lbs but ridden by Suzanne France 7lb claimer who rode it the other night and its a cd winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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