ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

[Mr Intensity]

Main draw: (1) FEDERER, Roger SUI v Qualifier KARLOVIC, Ivo CRO v MARTIN, Alberto ESP ROCHUS, Christophe BEL v HAAS, Tommy GER VERDASCO, Fernando ESP v (13) GROSJEAN, Sebastien FRA (11) FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP v TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS CHELA, Juan Ignacio ARG v RUSEDSKI, Greg GBR HRBATY, Dominik SVK v Qualifier MASSU, Nicolas CHI v (8) FERRER, David ESP (4) LJUBICIC, Ivan CRO v ANDREEV, Igor RUS SRICHAPHAN, Paradorn THA v SERRA, Florent FRA (WC) SIMON, Gilles FRA v Qualifier SANTORO, Fabrice FRA v (16) BERDYCH, Tomas CZE (12) GONZALEZ, Fernando CHI v MOYA, Carlos ESP HANESCU, Victor ROM v LOPEZ, Feliciano ESP Qualifier v Qualifier SODERLING, Robin SWE v (5) DAVYDENKO, Nikolay RUS (7) GAUDIO, Gaston ARG v HENMAN, Tim GBR ACASUSO, Jose ARG v VOLANDRI, Filippo ITA Qualifier v WAWRINKA, Stanislas SUI Qualifier v (10) STEPANEK, Radek CZE (15) ROBREDO, Tommy ESP v HORNA, Luis PER MONFILS, Gael FRA v ROCHUS, Olivier BEL SANGUINETTI, Davide ITA v SEPPI, Andreas ITA MALISSE, Xavier BEL v (3) NALBANDIAN, David ARG (6) CORIA, Guillermo ARG v YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS MATHIEU, Paul-Henri FRA v SAFIN, Marat RUS PASHANSKI, Boris SCG v (WC) LLODRA, Michael FRA MIRNYI, Max BLR v (9) KIEFER, Nicolas GER (14) NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN v VLIEGEN, Kristof BEL Qualifier v (WC) BENNETEAU, Julien FRA (WC) LISNARD, Jean-Rene MON v MURRAY, Andy GBR CLEMENT, Arnaud FRA v (2) NADAL, Rafael ESP And outright prices from Stan James: Tournament Outright Masters Series Monte Carlo-Outright 17 Apr 10:10 Live on EW: 1/2 1,2 All in, compete or not

Selection	Price
Federer, Roger	6/4
Nadal, Rafael	6/4
Nalbandian, David	16/1
Safin, Marat	20/1
Coria, Guillermo	22/1
Davydenko, Nikolay	25/1
Ferrero, Juan Carlos	40/1
Ljubicic, Ivan	40/1
Gonzalez, Fernando	40/1
Moya, Carlos	40/1
Gaudio, Gaston	40/1
Mathieu, Paul Henri	50/1
Haas, Tommy	66/1
Chela, Juan Ignacio	66/1
Andreev, Igor	66/1
Berdych, Tomas	66/1
Acasuso, Jose	66/1
Volandri, Filippo	66/1
Robredo, Tommy	66/1
Murray, Andrew	66/1
Verdasco, Fernando	80/1
Grosjean, Sebastien	80/1
Massu, Nicolas	80/1
Ferrer, David	80/1
Wawrinka, Stanislas	80/1
Hanescu, Victor	100/1
Rochus, Olivier	100/1
Seppi, Andreas	100/1
Nieminen, Jarkko	100/1
Hrbaty, Dominik	125/1
Serra, Florent	125/1
Simon, Giles	125/1
Henman, Tim	125/1
Horna, Luis	125/1
Monfils, Gael	125/1
Santoro, Fabrice	150/1
Stepanek, Radek	150/1
Malisse, Xavier	150/1
Youzhny, Mikhail	150/1
Martin, Alberto	175/1
Sanguinetti, Davide	175/1
Kiefer, Nicolas	175/1
Srichaphan, Paradorn	200/1
Lopez, Feliciano	200/1
Soderling, Robin	200/1
Benneteau, Julien	200/1
Clement, Arnaud	200/1
Rusedski, Greg	250/1
Pashanski, Boris	250/1
Vliegen, Kristof	300/1
Rochus, Christophe	350/1
Karlovic, Ivo	500/1
Tursunov, Dmitry	500/1
Llodra, Michael	500/1
Mirnyi, Max	500/1
Lisnard, Jean-Rene	500/1

First big clay event of the year, and I really can't be bothered choosing between Federer and Nadal at this stage:eyes

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	HENMAN v Gaudio
Strength	10/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 3.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Nothing like a piece of Henmania to start the week! This may seem a little crazy, but here me out. Henman was playing well in Miami picking up wins against Hewitt and Safin before putting in an awful performance against Gruel. I think this is the situation to bet on Henman for the rest of his career, when he isn't really fancied, as he's still able to put in big time performances. He's also playing doubles and practicing with Murray this week, and I think that will help him, mentally more than anything else; I think he'll like the sort of 'mentor' role. He's got a great record hear in Monte Carlo, reaching the quarters in 2001 and 2004 and the semis in 2003 (lost poorly in 1st round last year to Zabaleta). He's had some big wins in those runs and clearly this is one of his favourite clay court events. Gaudio, considering how good a clay courter he is, has an average record here, with his best result a quarter final last year. He's in average form this year, struggling last week in Valencia eventually going out to Safin. We've all seen the success Henmans slices and angles have had against the South Americans (notably Massu, Chela, Coria etc) and it's the same against Gaudio; H2H is 3-0 to Henman including 2 straight sets wins on clay in 2000 and 2001. I fancy Henman to roll back the years and give us a great performance tomorrow!

[davidmphill]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April You're a brave man backing Henman Mr I!! Good luck to you!

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April You need to be brave sometimes:ok

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	LAY SANGUINETTI v Seppi (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 3.15 (Lay)
Reasoning	Battle of the Italians and should be pretty straightforward. H2H is 1-1 and rightly Sanguinetti winning on grass and Seppi winning on clay. Both lost to Simon last week, Sanguinetti in the 2nd round after struggling past a Russian qualifier, Seppi in the 3rd after beating a couple of decent clay courters. In the past 12 months Seppi is 19-11 on clay compared to Sanguinettis 12-9. I was impressed with Seppi at the start of the year on hard courts - I think he's improved his serve quite a bit and looks to have a decent all round game. Don't fancy an upset here. £207 available.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	LAY LLODRA v Pashanski (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 3.60 (Lay)
Reasoning	Pashanski still appears to be quite unknown in Europe which often means getting value on him. He's 61-19 on clay in the past 12 months although most of that will have been on the Challenger circuit. A clay court specialist should have no problem with Llodra on this surface, as he is 0-6 in the past 12 months and 17-32 since 2000. He hasn't played a match on clay since the French Open last year and hasn't won a match on clay since his run to the 4th round of the French Open in 2004! Remember he was inspired at this time, and that was really strange form, until Henman took care of him. You may think he'd be inspired being close to home but he has a 2-6 record at this event since 2000. £241 available. This is a decent price to lay at, as it equates to getting 1.3846 to back Pashankski, and a lot of bookmakers go 1.28 or 1.33 (best WillHill @ 1.36).

[A-Team]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Despite his poor current form, Ferrero seems a bit over-priced at 100/1 (with bluesq) for someone with such a good record in the event.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Despite his poor current form, Ferrero seems a bit over-priced at 100/1 (with bluesq) for someone with such a good record in the event.

:welcome to PL A-Team. Good luck with that:ok. For me, he's shown nothing so far this year - and only a couple of weeks ago lost to Tursunov on hard. Should be better for him on clay, but Tursunov has such a big game, if he comes out firing then Ferrero will have problems. Also it's an awful draw, after Tursunov probably Chela, then probably Massu or Ferrer, before having to face Federer just to get into the semis! Now I like the odd big priced outright, but normally in a weak part of the draw, which this certainly is not. Anyway, I hope he does come good for you - I'm the idiot that backed him to finish the year in the top 8:lol :lol :lol

[A-Team]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	SODERLING v Davydenko
Strength	5/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 4.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Following his recent Davis Cup singles rubber withdrawal and meek first round defeat to Jan Hernych in Valencia there have to be serious doubts over Davydenko's current physical state. That's it really. Soderling is a good price to take advantage.

[WinningTipster]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

[WinningTipster]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Hi guys, We continue with the following picks: ATP TOUR, MONTE-CARLO, KIEFER TO D MIRNYI @ 1.38 on pinnacle FERRERO TO D TURSUNOV @ 1.42 on betfair CHELA TO D RUSEDSKI @ 1.19 on betfair Kiefer is 4:0 in matches and 8:0 in sets against Max Mirnyi. Mirnyi is out-of-form and playing on his less favourite clay. Tursunov is having a great year and he is a typical attacking hardcourt player. He hates playing on clay. Ferrero is still a top-10 claycourter. Chela just defeated Rusedski in Miami 2 weeks ago in straight sets. On clay it should be even easier. www.WinningTipster.com

[stereoman]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Here comes trouble....I've backed in a small £10 four-fold over at Ladbrokes: * Nalbandian 1/4 to beat Malisse * Kiefer 4/11 to beat Mirnyi * Chela 1/7 to beat Rusedski * Gaudio 4/11 to beat Henman Comes in at less than 2/1 as well. :eek

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Pashanski decided that he didn't want to play:wall :wall :wall :wall :wall

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	HORNA v Robredo
Strength	10/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	totesport @ 2.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Robredo has been in dreadful form this year, and that makes me think this one will be close. Robredo is 3-7 in his last 10 matches and chose to play the American indoor and outdoor hardcourt tournaments instead of the clay. Horna was doing alright on the clay, and picked up the title in Acapulco with some very good wins. He's struggled since then with a couple of poor results but I think he's been waiting to get onto the European clay. Neither has a great record here, and in the battle of the single handed backhands, I'm willing to have a go at this price.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Last play for today, need to recover from Pashanski:$ :$

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	LAY TURSUNOV v Ferrero (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 3.30 (Lay)
Reasoning	Now it's always risky having a go on Ferrero, especially at this sort of price, but I fancy it and the price looks good. Most bookmakers go 3.25 and the best price is 3.50 (tote) so this is a decent price o lay at. £271 available. Ferrero has been struggling all year, and apart from a semi final in Buenos Aires he hasn't done much. Last week he lost a tight first round match to Almagro, but we all saw what he went on to do. That could actually be a good thing as he's had a week to get ready for the big tournament, where he needs to start picking up some big points. His record here is awesome, going 20-4 since 2000, winning it is 2002 and 2003 and reaching the semis last year when in some bad form. Tursunov has really improved lately, finally getting over his back problems and bringing his explosive game to the tour. However, he's still pretty crap on clay, and hasn't played on the stuff since the French last year. Since 2000 he is 24-24 on clay (Ferrero 144-42) and his only successes on clay have been in Houston and Zagreb - both places where the clay isn't exactly slow!! H2H is 1-1 with both meeting on hard. Tursunov beat Ferrero in Miami just a couple of weeks ago but 6-3 7-6 was pretty close and theres a big swing in Ferreros favour for this one. He should be able to use his vast amount of clay court experience here and should come through.

[Canaletto]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April How on earth can Monfils lose to Rochus? Is it simply bottle?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

How on earth can Monfils lose to Rochus? Is it simply bottle?

Not sure - Rochus was favourite, is higher ranked, is good on clay, works harder, hasn't gone 1-9 in his last 10 matches, beat Monfils in Australia this year:unsure :unsure :unsure Monfils still looks very one dimensional, once Rochus worked it out towards the end of the first he was in control. It's a shame Monfils is struggling so much, so much potential there, doesn't seem to be going anywhere:unsure :unsure

[Canaletto]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Yet again another wannabe chokes against federer.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Yet again another wannabe chokes against federer.

:rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin It seems like since the start of 2000 421 wannabes have choked against Federer:\ :\

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Here comes trouble....I've backed in a small £10 four-fold over at Ladbrokes: * Nalbandian 1/4 to beat Malisse * Kiefer 4/11 to beat Mirnyi * Chela 1/7 to beat Rusedski * Gaudio 4/11 to beat Henman Comes in at less than 2/1 as well. :eek

Nice one stereo:nana :nana Shit first day for me, but the order of play looks great for tomorrow - I might try to go through the card:eek :eek

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April I am going to go through the card. Here's the first two matches from each court, will do the rest in the morning:

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	BERDYCH v Santoro
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 1.57 (Back)
Reasoning	Santoro started the season on fire but in his last 3 events has only picked up one win, so it looks like he's peaked for the year. He doesn't have great clay pedigree really and only troubles 'name' players who are really out of sorts (i.e. Nalbandian last year). Berdych has been doing my head in all year, but in the last two Masters Series events in America started picking up and playing well. Hopefully he can bring that form here and do some damage. He is better known on quick surfacs but looking at his record he is 7-3 in last 10 on clay (14-10 in past 12 months) and reached the final of Bastad last year, taking a set off Nadal in that final. So I think he's a little underrated on this surface and is worth a play.
Sport Tennis Event ATP Monte Carlo Selection MATHIEU v Safin Strength 10/10 Date 18/04/2006 Bookmaker/Price >BetFred @ 3.00 (Back) Reasoning Safin was playing well last week in Valencia up until the semi final. He seemed in a very bad mood that day and turned his ankle near the end, and those are two reasons to oppose him here. Not sure he'll be 100% and anyway he is liable to put in a dodgy performace. No real form to back Mathieu on, but we've seen him put in huge performances from time to time, and this looks a good spot to take out a big name. H2H is 1-1 with a couple of close matches in 2002 when Safin looked a lot better, so more reason to think this'll be tight. Sport Tennis Event ATP Monte Carlo Selection CORIA 2-0 v Youzhny Strength 10/10 Date 18/04/2006 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 1.80 (Back) Reasoning Coria hasn't done much this year, but he did look a little better in the last TMS event, and I feel getting onto the European clay will bring him to life. Youzhny, apart from a good week in Dubai, hasn't done much either, and I think he'll really struggle here. Looking back through his results, I struggle to find the last time he beat a 'proper' clay courter, probably an over-the-hill Nicolas Lapentti in Stuttgart in July 2003. The reason to take the 2-0 is from the H2H; Coria leads 5-2 and has won the 3 matches on clay 6-3 6-3, 6-0 6-0 and 6-2 6-3. I expect another very comfortable scoreline here. Sport Tennis Event ATP Monte Carlo Selection DAVYDENKO 2-0 v Soderling Strength 10/10 Date 18/04/2006 Bookmaker/Price Centrebet @ 1.75 (Back) Reasoning Davydenko has had a few problems lately, having to pull out of the 4th rubber in DC then losing in the first round of Valencia to Hernych - but we know he's so much better than that. Plus that was a whole 8 days ago so plenty of time for him to recover from a little niggle in time for the big money event. I'm sure this is inflating the price and isn't entirely justified. Soderling showed some decent game indoors in America but let's face it he's pathetic on clay. He got decent results in 2004 but that was when he was more of an unknown, now everyone knows his game and a lot can deal with it on this surface. Davydenko if anything near 100% will simply get too many balls back and force him into errors. Take the 2-0 as then you're sure of a void if Davydenko decides to give up after a set! Sport Tennis Event ATP Monte Carlo Selection STARACE 2-0 v Mahut Strength 10/10 Date 17/04/2006 Bookmaker/Price >Betfair @ 2.00 (Back) Reasoning You all know I love backing qualifiers, but here we have two playing each other, which is a shame. However, one is a good clay court player, one is not. Mahut much prefers faster surfaces as you can see from his 16-29 record since 2000. He's somehow managed to come through qualifying, but I can see his having a lot of problems here. Starace loves the clay, going 34-19 in the past 12 months and looks in good form. He didn't have too much success in South America earlier this year but came back and won the Napoli challenger pretty comfortably. He qualified easily here and should be well up for it, so take this decent price on the 2-0. £654 available. Sport Tennis Event ATP Monte Carlo Selection GABASHVILI v Simon Strength 10/10 Date 18/04/2006 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.93 (Back) Reasoning We saw Simon have a great week in Valencia, but we also saw in the final he was knackered and I think that week took a lot out of him. I'm looking at his inexperience and expecting him to have a bit of a let down this week. Don't know too much about Gabashvili, but he qualified last week in Valencia before losing to Sanguinetti in 3, and has qualified this week including a very decent straight sets win over Mayer. He reached the final of a challenger in Barcelona last year, and won a qualifier in Poznan, so clearly doens't mind clay too much. He's a qualifier, so I like it, and should represent a little bit of value. Sport Tennis Event ATP Monte Carlo Selection HANESCU v Lopez Strength 10/10 Date 18/04/2006 Bookmaker/Price >Bet365 @ 1.61 (Back) Reasoning Hanescu looks to be a very solid favourite, and should be alright against Lopez. He's struggled this year but found form winning the exhibition in Houston so should be looking forward to this. He's very solid on clay, going 20-7 in the last 12 months which is a stat which surprised me a little. Lopez is another is really poor form and has struggled to do anything sinc Australia - last week he lost easily to Garcia-Lopez in the first round of Valencia. He's never done too much on clay, going 7-8 in the past 12 months with no notable results. H2H is 1-0 to Lopez, a win the first week of the year in Doha, but it was tight, so I won't read anything into it. It's on:@ :@ :@

[bunnylove]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April ATP MONTE CARLO LJUBICIC I. - Andreev I. Ladbrokes @ 2.00 (this price also available on betfred) 8/10 Great bet, superb odds. First of all i'd say the odds on Ljubicic are crazy, i think we'll never or rarely get so high odds on Ljubo again so soon ( ok against federer or nadal...but those are aliens in tennis like ronaldinho in soccer :clap). Bookmakers were kinda tricked into these odds becouse of the clay surface which should suit Andreev more, but cmon if u've seen Ljubo play u will have to agree that he is surely underestimated in this match. He is a marveoulus base-liner and his serve is crazy. The fact that Ljubicic didnt play a lot on clay is cous he is just so good on carpet that his chances are really good on that surface and also becouse of the matches for davis cup, which takes a lot of preparations. Andreev is surely not a bad player, he is quick he is a clay courter nad he will not give in easy but this year he is not so stable and mentaly strong as Ljubicic, he takes on 'easier' oponents but when it comes to 'big names' he lacks some experience. H2H is 2:1 for Ljubicic (2005, 2006), and that 1 for Andreev is from year 2003. This is a must-take bet, if u're not sure lower the stakes, but surely Ljubicic is more than backable here. good luck

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	NADAL 2-0 v Clement
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 1.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Really can't see this not being 2-0. Clement has been improved this year but he's not at his best on clay, and will suffer. Nadal suffered a shock loss to Moya in Miami but that was a while ago and now he can hit the clay. He's really awesome on this stuff, since 18th April 2005 he is 30-0 on clay (last defeat on clay coming at Valencia against Andreev)! Clement comes into this without a huge weapon, and last year we saw that it was so hard to get a point from Nadal on clay, nevermind a set. Should be easy.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	MURRAY 2-0 v Lisnard
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Paddy Power @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	This one is interesting, purely because Murray hasn't really shown anything on clay since he joined the tour. However, I think he could start doing so this week. He spent his teenage years playing in Spain on the clay and his game looks ideal for playing on clay. Also, after having just sacked Mark Petchey as coach, I think he'll be looking to make a point this week. He should have recovered from the ear infection and ankle problem he had during the Davis Cup, and I fancy him to do a job on Lisnard today. Lisnard is a wildcard playing at home, but he's not up to much really, and doesn't seem to like the clay too much. He's 2-8 in his last 10 matches on clay and in recent weeks has even been struggling on the Challenger circuit, losing his last two first round matches without much of a fight.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	C ROCHUS 2-0 v Balleret
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	Normally I like backing qualifiers, however, in this case I think the gulf in class will be too much. Local boy Balleret is ranked 351 and hasn't really done much to gain my support, he usually struggles to qualify for Challenger clay court events. In qualifying here he won a very tight one agaisnt Portas then a couple of tight sets against Bjorkman. Those are two guys you can't really rate as good wins at this level, and I see him struggling here. Rochus has been in fine form this year, with good weeks in Rotterdam reaching the final and reaching the last 16 in Miami. He's actually 3-7 in his last 10 on clay, but don't be fooled, he's a very decent clay court player. Last year he reached the semis of St Polten and semis of TMS Hamburg after coming through qualifying. He should have far too much skill and experience and be able to make this one comfortable. £312 available.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	HRBATY 2-0 v Bracciali
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I don't usually like backing Hrbaty on clay, however, this seems like a decent opportunity. H2H is 2-0 to Hrbaty with both wins coming in straight sets including in Indian Wells a few weeks ago. Hrbaty reached the final of this event in 2000 but since then has only won 1 match in 5 attempts which is quite strange; I think I can put that down to usually having a heavy schedule doing well in Miami and Indian Wells which he hasn't really done this year. Bracciali is simply bad on clay, by far his worst surface. He lost in qualifying and is in here as a Lucky Loser. He's 3-7 in his last 10 on clay and looking back through his results I can't find the last time he beat anyone decent on clay.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	GROSJEAN v Verdasco
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	totesport @ 1.83 (Back)
Reasoning	This should be a great match to watch, but it is tough to call. I'm going for Grosjean, but wouldn't be surprised if it goes to 3 sets. Verdasco had a tough week last week trying to defend his title in Valencia, and ended up losing in the semis and having a stomich problem. He looked very down at the end of that match and may find it pretty tough getting up for this one especially with the crowd against him. Grosjean is a great player, and after a dip last season, looks to be on the way up again. He hasn't played too much this year, but he has been getting decent results. He can play on any surface, and should have a decent match up against Verdasco. He's reached the semis of this event in 2001 and 2002 and his only failiure was in 2004 losing in the 2nd round to Martin when he came in with pretty poor form. I expect a good performance from him today and has a good chance to take this.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	MOYA v Gonzalez
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Expekt @ 1.95 (Back)
Reasoning	After an awful year last year, Moya looks to be getting it back together. He's had some decent result including winning the title in Buenos Aires. He's got a very good record here, reaching the final in 2002 and consecutive semi finals in 2003 and 2004. He was dumped out int he first round last year by druggy Puerta but he was in poor form at the time and Puerta has always had his number (and is a bloody cheat). I don't think Moya will go out in the first round in consecutive years so look for a big performance today. Gonzalez hasn't done too much this year, he's had a few niggling injuries at a time when I expected him to push on, and coming off a huge Davis Cup weekend on grass in America isn't the best preperation. Gonzalez hasn't done too much here apart from wins over Verdasco and Ancic last year before losing to Federer. H2H is 2-2 with all on faster surfaces so don't need to take much notice of that.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	SERRA 2-0 v Srichaphan
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Even money seems pretty decent for this one. Srichaphan, apart from a great run to the semis of Indian Wells, has been in awful form this year. He's also awful on clay, going 2-8 in his last 10 and 18-41 since 2000. Serra has struggled since having a great start to the year, but he was starting to play better in Miami. He's had a bad run on the clay lately, but he's a good clay court player, going 33-15 in the past 12 months. Schrichaphan won the only meeting on a carpet court in 2002 but that result is pretty meaningless. Considering how bad Srichaphan is on clay this should be pretty straightforward.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	Ferrer v Massu: Match to go to 3 sets
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.17 (Back)
Reasoning	This is achieved by backing 2-1 for both guys @ 4.33, equal stakes. Tough match to call here. I feel Ferrer should be favourite however his form has dipped a bit and he retired in Valencia last week (not sure of the extent of the problem). Massu has shown some good form this year and certainly has the game to cause Ferrer problems. They're both good on this surface and being so evenly matches, I feel they could be at it for a long time. I think it's viable to say 50% chance of going to 3 sets. Also, if Ferrer has to retire then bets are void, so it looks like a good option.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	ANDREEV v Ljubicic
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.08 (Back)
Reasoning	Don't fancy Ljubicic too much in this one. He's played a lot of tennis this year and could struggle in this clay court season just like he did last year. Also coming off losing in the Davis Cup (not his fault) could affect him as we saw last year how much DC means to him. He's actually 7-3 in his last 10 on clay but that including winning a really poor Challenger in Zagreb which isn't exactly representative. He did well on clay in 2004 reaching the semis in TMS Hanmburg which was a great result, but at that point the rest of his schedule wasn't so full. I prefer to look at last years form as an indicator where he came here and lost tamely 6-2 6-2 to O Rochus after a hectic start to the season. His results picked up after that but with the way he moves I find it hard to fancy him against a proper clay courter. Andreev was pretty poor last week against Safin, but we did see after that how well Safin was playing (and the conspiracy theorists will say the Russians are giving Safin ranking points at the moment) so maybe that result wasn't too bad. I still think Andreev is in decent form and with the spin he gets on his forehand he should be able to move Ljubicic around a lot and exploit his average movement. H2H is 2-1 to Ljubicic but all were indoors on quick surfaces so we should be surprised that Andreev managed to get 1!! £2592 available.

That's every match today. This is going to be fun:dude :dude

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Monte Carlo
Selection	SODERLING v Davydenko
Strength	5/10
Date	17/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 4.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Following his recent Davis Cup singles rubber withdrawal and meek first round defeat to Jan Hernych in Valencia there have to be serious doubts over Davydenko's current physical state. That's it really. Soderling is a good price to take advantage.

Great call mate:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy Safin's in a bad mood today:tongue2 :tongue2 :tongue2

[davidmphill]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Safin's in a bad mood today:tongue2 :tongue2 :tongue2

Understatement of the year! Lost count of how many racquets he's bust!:loon

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

Understatement of the year! Lost count of how many racquets he's bust!:loon

I think it's 3:loon Mathieu 6-0 4-4 - Safin playing pretty well now, Mathieu needs to take this now:hope

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April NO NO NO it's raining:cry :cry Please don't ruin the day of calling all the matches, it's started so well:sad

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April

NO NO NO it's raining:cry :cry Please don't ruin the day of calling all the matches, it's started so well:sad

Bang on cue they all start ****ing losing:wall :wall :wall

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Get in. Mathieu gets the job done just as Starace 2-0 comes in. I think that's 4-1 so far today, only Davydenko messing it up so far. However, Gabashvili and Hanescu having problems:hope ....yep, 2 losers there, 4-3 for the day.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Another ****ing lack of conditions for Murray - he needs to get off the burgers and do some exercise the lazy ****er. He was a set and a break up (twice). Hrbaty chucks away a set aswell. At least Massu/Ferrer has gone to 3 sets and Grosjean is a set up. Still a lot of matches to go today:ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Monte Carlo 17th - 23th April Well, a 3.8pt loss for the day. It barely seems worthwhile:lol :lol :lol :lol. Bit of a shocker after the way it started, feel I got unlucky in a few and lucky in none:sad Anyway, it was a nice experiement, might have to do it again in one of the early rounds of Hamburg or Rome (and probably Wimbledon;)):ok