Rio on the flat 06

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 No return from yesterday with Thunder Rock a never nearer 6th & Foxhaven who went 2nd round the turn into the straight plodding on for 7th, 40pts down on the day. Staked 1666.8pts returns 1259.27pts profit/loss -407.53pts Ante-post 50pts Ante-post P/L -50pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Today looks to be the best day of the three, at least after the first two races, I'm not a fan of these sales races. Plenty of rain last evening so soft going today & a few N/R's already. 2.50 Unlike the other group 1's the Nunthorpe looks a strong race. On this ground I don't like the favourite, I just hope they don't take it out & ruin the market. Reverence 30pts @ 6/1 is the one for me. All his wins have come with cut in the ground & all over 5f including a good win in the Temple Stakes at Sandown. Not disgraced in two fast ground runs since & has his ideal conditions today. 3.25 Looked at this race last night & had it down to two. Zero Tolerance 10pts @ 12/1 Ladbrokes, loves it round here & is another who needs to get his toe in. Bowls along in front & over this trip can get most of these at it, races off 105 & 9st 13lb is a big ask but has won off 102 this year & he's used to big weights. The other is Pride of Nation who has a plum draw in 3 & also likes to be up there. This one looks the progressive horse in the race, especially with cut in the ground & ended up favourite for The Royal Hunt Cup LTO after good wins earlier this season on soft. Couldn't get into that race on the fast ground & was also drawn on the wrong side as well. Had a nice break to freshen him up & looks to have everything going for him today. Best price early was 9/2 but this soon went & it looked like I'd missed the boat but then Blue Sq went 5/1, tried to get 40pts but only Got 20pts @ 5/1. More frantic clicking Revealed Skybet going 11/2 & got 30pts at that price. I'm also having a 5pt reversed exacta on this race as well. More fancies in the later races but waiting on prices for those. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 York continued, 4.00 Quito has a 5lb penalty for winning a listed race & no horse with a pen has won this in the last ten runnings, does go on the ground & the track tho'. Somnus is the other oldboy & he has group 1 winning form & also goes on the ground so is up to winning this, I don't now why but I just don't fancy him tho' Dabber's Ridge showed improved form to win a valuable handicap LTO but that was on fast ground, does have soft ground form tho'. Mostashaar has been a bit disappointing & the 3yo's look a pretty modest lot so I'm going with the unexposed Lightning Flash 30pts @ 9.0 Betfair. Had knee problems & has only run twice both times on the polytrack at Lingfield. The last time was quite impressive easing past the usefull Indian Steppes in a 10k race after 14 months off from his first start. No idea if he'll go on the ground but the stable is in form & doesn't usually tilt at windmills. 4.35 This looks to be between Anna Pavlova & Zarwala. The former has been waiting for the ground to ease & had too good runs earlier this season on soft, including beating the usefull Sir Gerard giving him 5lb over 8f at Haydock. Stepped up to 10f after at Newbury but found it too fast? Up in trip again today which I'm not sure will suit but there is stamina on the dam's side. Zarwala 30pts@ 3/1 Sporting Odds is the choice. Only run the once winning an 11f Limerick maiden on heavy ground with ease in late May. Form doesn't look up to much but obviously goes well fresh & on the ground. John Oxx doesn't send them over for the day out & had two entered in this & he's also won the last two runnings of this race. 5.10 A tricky looking handicap to finish. Ask trys to get back on track after flopping LTO on first try in a handicap, could be a bit over rated. Bandama steps up in trip & is unproven on the ground & Salesin who goes on soft didn't improve stepping up to 12f from 10f LTO goes up another 2f here. Numeric doesn't look an easy ride but has improved for blinkers last twice. Cape Secret has form at the trip & has won his last three but all of those were on fast ground & is up another 12lb for the last of those. Trick or Treat 30pts @ 3/1 Sporting Odds is another on a roll winning her last four including on good to soft LTO when soon going clear over 12f. Runs off the same mark of 74 here plus a 6lb pen & is due to go up 12lb to 86. The last two I've also had a 10pt double @ 3's Sporting Odds. RIo.

[traf]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 :clap Fantastic work there, Rio. Very interesting and informative. Thanks for sharing.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 A decent day in the end with two winners & which started & ended well but disappointed a little in the middle. Reverence won the Nunthorpe in style on the soft & afterwards talk was of the Haydock sprint & the the Abbaye. All wins have been at 5f but he has only had three goes at 6f & only one on soft when beaten under a length FTO this season so he may get the Haydock 6f, if it's the usual soft at Longchamp he must go well. Pride of Nation was only third going off at 2/1. At first I thought the jockey had given him plenty to do but on reflection the winner put up a good front running performance & even Zero Tolerance couldn't go with him & it will be interesting to see what the handicapper puts the winner up for this. Didn't think Lightning Strike was going to get through but in the end he got the split up the rail but Quito has a good finishing kick & defied the pen. Between two in the Galtres & picked the wrong one, Zarwala was disappointing. The good news in the last was Trick or Treat got up to win but the bad news she went off at 9/2 :eyes Total stakes on the day 190pts with a return of 330pts, a profit of 140pts. Two winning days from the three so can't complain. Staked 1856.8pts returns 1589.27pts profit/loss -267.53pts Ante-post 50pts Ante-post P/L -50pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 well done rio - working towards the profit !!

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Newmarket 4.30 The higher weighted ones look out of form & with soft ground & a 1m 7f trip I'm looking at those at the bottom. Alessano might just find this trip streches his stamina too much & Duty looks one of Stoute's lesser lights. Lightning Strike should go well, although this is the softest ground he's run on. I like the bottom one Meadow Mischief 30pts @ 7/2 Bet365 here. Running ok over this sort of trip but really stepped up on previous efforts LTO at Sandown when soon clear of his rivals & looks to be improving. Runs here off the same mark of 76 plus a 5lb penalty & is due to go up to 85. This is a slightly better race & yet to race on soft but his sire Halling handled it & he has run well on the AW. Newmarket 5.00 One who does go on the ground is Cashel Mead 30pts @ 7/2 Stan James. All 8 of her turf wins have come on good to soft or softer, including LTO at Newbury 6 days ago. Won four times in 15 days from mid May so clearly goes with a short break between races. Won over 6f so this stiff 5f should hold no fears & useful claimer takes 5lb of the 6lb penalty off. Sandown 4.55 A modest looking bunch but the one at the top Lake Shabla 40pts @ 11/4 Coral catches the eye. Took an ordinary AW maiden on first ever start in February & was then chucked in the deep end when 13l fourth of six behind Short Skirt & triple Oaks winner Alexandrova in the Musidora on her only start since. Given a nice break & a huge drop in class here, time may show that todays mark of 78 is quite generous. Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 good week for you Rio, are you betting 2day?

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Meadow Mischief could only manage a distant third & probably didn't like the ground. Lake Shabla was backed into 15/8 & came there well off a strong pace but was run out of it close home. Cashel Mead saved the day just holding on by a short head, she was down to run again today but has been taken out proabably due to the fast ground. 100pts staked, returns 135pts, a profit of 35pts. Staked 1956.8pts returns 1724.27pts profit/loss -232.53pts Ante-post 50pts Ante-post P/L -50pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Chester 4.00 I have no doubt that Book of Music 40pts @ 9/4 Hills was well fancied for the Ebor by connections & that they will have been disappointed to have missed the cut by one, especially as Cumani withdrew Soulacroix just after the deadline. I suspect there may have been a few smirks in the Stoute camp when Cumani's Glistening got done on the line by the rag. Cumani runs Lost Soldier Three here but off 106 this is a big ask. Of the rest Kiswahili looks held by Lost S 3 from York two runs ago. Sunday Symphony doesn't look an easy ride, first run for a year & no blinkers today which he had on his last two starts. The others don't look up to this & this concerns the bottom two for me. New Guinea beat a modest lot at Ponty LTO & his second to Numeric at Goodwood on fast ground the time before was probably a better run. Steps up in trip here & with the ground not riding fast must run well. I'm with Book of Music tho', steps up from 10f here which should suit. The form of his second to the 4yo Dancili Dancer LTO at Sandown, when beaten under a length carrying just 2lb less looks solid as the winner has since landed a valuable Haydock handicap. The rest of the day doesn't inspire & my only other bet today is a speculative punt on the two big field handicaps at Sandown & Chester. Sandown 3.10 Taking the top one Blue Bajan, I Have Dreamed & Along the Nile against the field here. Chester 3.25 Into the Breeze & Namroud have course form, Jamieson Gold is out with the washing in stall 17 but Barry Hills has a good record in this, with two wins & two placed from five runners. The bet is 3 x 3 = 9 x 2pt each way doubles which is 36pts staked. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06

good week for you Rio' date=' are you betting 2day?[/quote'] Only the one bet & the highly speculative punt for me today. I see you have quite a few today hope they go well for you :hope Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Nothing form yesterday, picked the wrong one at Chester & only one placed in the other bet. No bet for me today. Staked 2032.8pts returns 1724.27pts profit/loss -308.53pts Ante-post 50pts Ante-post P/L -50pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Nothing of interest at Kempton or Thirsk today so just a couple of bets at Haydock. 1.45 Heavy ground here today & already four non runners in this. Done this race for %man's three horse challenge thread & got it down to Red Lancer, Stoop to Conquer & Peppertree Lane 30pts @ 6.4 Betfair. All have soft or worse ground form as does the top weight Frank Sonata but he has a big ask under 9st 10lb & off 105. Peppertree Lane looks the most progressive of these, good wins over 8f on soft in the spring before losing form when the yard went through a rough patch. Back to form over 12f on heavy 2 weeks ago at Ripon & can improve again over this extra 2f on ground he clearly relishes. Covered the three in 1pt exacta's & half pt triflecta's for another 9pts staked. 2.15 The Nunthorpe form gets it's first test here. Reverence clearly loves the ground & has done all his winning over 5f but to be fair only 3 of his 13 runs have come over this trip. Two of those were on good ground the other being a third, beaten under a length FTO this season on soft behind Golden Jubilee & July Cup winner Les Arcs at Redcar. Amadeus Wolf tries to turn the tables on the same terms here, two lengths to find over this extra furlong but this looks one of those hard to place types. Steenberg is another who was behind at York & will find this 6f more to his liking & can get nearer if not past Reverence. Balthazaar's Gift is interesting on his second to Les Arcs three runs back in the Golden Jubilee, beaten twice since but all three wins have come on good to soft & yet to encounter softer than that. I'm going with Miss Sally 20pts @ 16/1 Betfred. Loves the ground & no fears over the trip, good win at Cork FTO this season & then was only third at the Curragh after when well fancied but was found to be in season. Two fair runs on fast ground after that & she gets her ideal conditions today. Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 I rate Miss Sally the best outsider Rio and i agree you can make allowances for her recent runs - good luck :ok

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Most disappointing run from Miss Sally, backed into 10/1 but was never going at all. Reverence did the job well & given the usual soft conditions must go well in the Abbaye next. Peppertree Lane landed the spoils though to make it a profitable day. 59pts staked, 183.90pts returned, a profit of 124.90pts. Staked 2091.8pts returns 1908.17pts profit/loss -183.63pts Ante-post 50pts Ante-post P/L -50pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Going to York on Saturday with some of the lads from work so had an early look at the St Leger yesterday evening before setting off for the dreaded night shift (last one tonight). Sixties Icon as been a shade of odds on for some time but is now on the slide. The trainer says theres no problem with the horse & there probably isn't but the stable is not in good form at the moment. The win of Sixties Icon in the Gordon stakes at Goodwood was fair form but not good enough to have him this short for the Leger. The second that day Jadalee has since taken the March stakes also at Goodwood but made hard work of it. for me the best form in the race is that of Red Rocks. He went for home a touch early in the Voltiguer & got done on the line by Youmzain but had Puerto Rico, Fire & Rain & Championship Point behind. Before that he was 2l second to the well thought of Rail Link (more on him in a minute) in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp with Mountain & Puerto Rico behind. Only beaten a neck by Papal Bull at Royal Ascot in the King Edward VII with Sixties Icon 2 1/2l behind before that. All this is decent form, of the rest only the O'Brien horse Tusculum looks the type to improve on what he's done before. Red Rocks goes on any ground, can race up with the pace or lead if wanted & the doubt is will he stay & much depends on how fast they go, hopefully Richard Hughes can dictate the pace from the front. Took the 11/2 @ Sportingbet to 20pts last evening. Also had a small bet on the aforementioned Rail Link 20pts @ 14/1 Sporting Odds for the Arc. This one looks an improving 3yo & is an intended runner in the Prix Niel this weekend, which should give more clues to his chances in the big one. With Soumillon likely to be on the other Fabre horse Shirocco in the Arc talk is of Frankie taking the ride on Rail Link. Fabre also has Hurricane Run & looks to have a strong hand in the race. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 A few quick thoughts before going for the train.

2.05 I like Pivotal’s Princess here & have taken 20pts @ 10/1 Bet365. Track & trip will suit her running style, Hogmaneigh & BondCity can follow her home.

2.35 BarryHills usually runs a good one in this but the form of EagleMountain’s second in a Curragh group 2 looks good. No bet as yet.

3.10 Iffraaj should take this, the improving Waaseema should go well.

3.45 Already on Red Rocks here & have had another 30pts @ 9/2 with Coral’s

4.25 A head scratcher, with some on the comeback trail & some none to convincing form, leaving this one alone.

5.00 Probably English Ballet will take this but another to leave alone for me.

5.30 I like Topatoo for this, loves the track & good win over C&D in this class LTO, had 30pts @ 9/2 Totalbet.

Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Not the most profitable day for me at York yesterday, still at least the weather was nice. Pivotal's Princess was never going & kept up the trend for supporting well backed horses that then run poorly. I have to say that the tatics on Red Rocks left much to be desired, ok there were doubts over the trip but to hold up a horse that likes to be up there almost always fails & Hughes was so far back turning in that the horse would have needed to sprout wings. Topatoo ran a good race in second behind Rohaani, a horse I've backed before & usually been let down. Rail Link won the Prix Niel & is now as short as 5/1 for the Arc & a best priced 8/1. Staked 2171.8pts returns 1908.17pts profit/loss -263.63pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post P/L -70pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 A quiet couple of weeks but back for the Ascot 4.20 tomorrow. I'm going against George Washington, O'Brien said he was pleased with the comeback at Goodwood but that was just spin, he's hardly going to say a horse thats already worth a fair bit at stud is not right in the head. The horse is at best a difficult ride, Kinane will know more about him this time but he still looks one to swerve for me. Court Masterpiece has won here but is a better horse at Goodwood. Araafa is another with a bit to prove having flopped in the Sussex stakes having previously taken the Irish 2000 & the St James's Palace in good stlye, would go close on that form. Proclamation is another with a bit to prove, took the Sussex last year getting first run on Soviet Song & then flopped dropped back to 6f for the Haydock sprint. Fair third FTO in the Queen Anne when the stable was out of sorts but looks to have only a short finishing kick & needs to be produced at the right moment. Nannina is a useful filly but is up against it against the boys here. The one with the form in the book & running well is Librettist 40pts @ 11/4 Paddy Power. Injury stopped him appearing at 3yo but has improved in leaps & bounds since his comeback in a minor race at Nottingham, taking a listed race & then a Group 3 & then the two big Summer mile races in France, the Prix Jacques le Marois & the Prix du Moulin both Group 1. He goes on soft, will handle the right hand bend & races up with the pace, I expect Frankie to kick for home early in the short Ascot straight & play catch me if you can. The rest of the card looks trappy with no real idea as to the effect of the draw for two big field handicaps, it did look like low numbers earlier in the year but the far side looked best today. Working tomorrow :sad Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 No joy from the last bet with George Washington returning to impressive form. Staked 2211.8pts returns 1908.17pts profit/loss -303.63pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post P/L -70pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Newmarket 4.40 Tax Free is a N/R, a few of the old stagers here, The Tatling, Corridor Creeper, Celtic Mill, Fantasy Believer but this race usually falls to a progressive younger type which doesn't have a penalty for a Listed/Group 2/3 win. The best of the fillies is probably Donna Blini who started the season over a mile but has dropped back to sprinting winning a minor conditions race over this trip on the July course three runs back. Sixth twice in two Group 3's since & is starting to look like she might have had enough for the season. The most progressive looking one is Prince Tamino 40pts @ 4/1 Sporting Odds. Took the Valuable William Hill Trophy at York in June, a race which often throws up the type to go on to better things. A close third in a similar event over 6f on the July course after the drop back to to 5f on this stiff track should not be a problem. Yet to go on ground softer than good but his sire Mozart handled a bit of cut & he's had a break to freshen him up. Races close to the pace & he can sit in just behind & pick them off in the final furlong. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Prince Tamino was caught on the line & beaten a short head by Fantasy Believer who seems to be improving even at 8yo's. Staked 2251.8pts returns 1908.17pts profit/loss -343.63pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post P/L -70pts Scoop6 -£4.00 It's getting towards the backend of the flat season yet again, after Longchamp tomorrow theres only Champions day at Newmarket & maybe the Breeders cup left for me. Big fields & soft ground at Newmarket today but I'll have a go at the Cambridgeshire. 3.45 Theres quite a lot made about the draw here but then there was in the Ayr Gold Cup & that didn't work out. The Raceform topdraw figures have 14+ runners over this C&D at low 50%, middle 48% & high 52% so there would seem to be little in it. After his impressive win in the mile handicap at the Ebor meeting Smart Enough 10pts @ 13/2 Sporting Odds looked to have the right sort of profile for this. Handles the ground but yet to race over more than 8f & this is a big field to try to dominate from the front but he does have the jockey to do it. Reminds me of Cap Jaluca who took the same route & had the same running style back in the 90's & I have to have a saver on him. The three against the field I have for %man's three horse challenge are, Pinpoint 17pts @ 13.0 Betfair. Progressive type, good win over 10f at Newbury after a break LTO so should get the trip, yet to race on ground this soft though. Illustrious Blue 7pts @ 32.0 Betfair. In form & improving winning 4 of last 5 & finding traffic problems on the other. Trip no problem & seems to go on soft. Blue Bajan 6pts @ 36.0 Betfair. Another thats won over 10f & goes on soft. I've also put the four in 0.5pt Exacta's & 0.2pt Triflecta's for another 10.8pts, so thats a total of 50.8pts staked. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 A second & third yesterday but the winner spreadeagled his field. Staked 2302.6pts returns 1908.17pts profit/loss -394.43pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post P/L -70pts Scoop6 -£4.00 It never ceases to amaze me how we are fed a load of dross in this country on Sundays whilst Ireland, France, Italy & Germany run most of their top stuff. SIX Group 1's on the card at Longchamp today while we are at the gaffs at Kelso, Market Rasen & Uttoxeter. Longchamp 1.05 With Reefscape's form on a downward curve & Shamdala well beaten last time & untried over this extreme trip this looks to be between Sergeant Cecil & Le Miracle. Of the pair I prefer Le Miracle 40pts @ 3/1 Betfred. Looks to be improving for the step up in trip & won well round here LTO, the short straight will not favour Sgt Cecil who takes time to get into top gear & the main worry would be if it were to come up very soft. 2.15 Again the ground is the key, if it were soft then Reverence would take all the beating, however it seems good ground is forcast. Amadeus Wolf must go well but looks hard to win with & may need 6f. Moss Vale is better than his last in the Nunthorpe & has Fallon back on top. I like Red Clubs 30pts @ 8/1 Skybet here. Good win at Ascot a week ago & the stable is in decent nick & at 3yo is open to further improvement, the ground is not a problem either. 2.50 This looks between Alexandrova & Mandesha who both run here instead of the Arc. A race to watch & not to bet in, the same goes for both the 2yo races. 4.35 The second smallest Arc field of all time but probably the best Arc since Dancing Brave's twenty years ago. There could be a lack of pace here with only Irish Wells likely to go on up front. If it turns into a sprint up the short straight the this would favour the Japanese horse Deep Impact. Hurricane Run has not quite run up to the form of last season but there won't be much between him & stablemate Shiroco today or the mare Pride & all three finished in a heap in a muddling Prix Foy LTO. Sixtie's Icon won the St Leger in style & could run a big race at a fancy price on the French Tote, I may have a small bet when the prices come through near race time. The one I've gone for is Rail Track 20pts @ 10/1 Sporting Odds. I'm already on ante-post before the Prix Niel which is by far the best trial for the Arc & eight of the last ten winners came on from the Niel. Rail Track won that quite nicely & the runner up has since won a Group 1 in Germany. 3yo's have by far the best record winning eight of the last ten Arc's & this one is an improver & is a fair price. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Le Miracle ran a fair race to come third, Sgt Cecil showed a nice finishing burst to win his Group 1. Red Clubs never showed. However rail Link Landed the Arc :nana :nana :nana 20pts @ 10/1 returns 220pts 20pts Ante-post @ 14/1 returns 300pts Staked 2392.6pts returns 2128.17pts profit/loss -174.43pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post returns 300pts Ante-post P/L +210pts Scoop6 -£4.00 So overall back in the black for the season :ok And now the icing on the cake, as I said in my last post I had an eye on the French tote odds with a view to maybe having a small bet on sixties Icon. The Japs were out in force & that much Yen was lumped on Deep Impact that it opened at 1/10 :eek & was always long odds on. This inflated the prices on all the other runners & Rail Link opened at 40 something & was around 35/1 near the off. At this point I rang Stan James & had another 20pts on Rail Track at the French odds, it returned at 24.60 & I copped another 492pts. I realize this is after timing but I think I've been around this forum long enough to get away with it this once but I'm not going to include it in my returns. Time for a few sherbets me-thinks :beer Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 excellent news Rio, couldnt happen to a better punter:ok

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Thanks bowles, as always your support is much appreciated. Now then I've had a tip from a source at work, usually these run like they should be on Blackpool beach but this lad has hit with two or three in the past. Normally I only get these at work so I can't put them up but today I've done half a shift as a favour. The horse is Wind Shuffle in the 5.40 at Leicester. Apparently it has a problem with the stalls & it refused to go in at York in June & has needed to take a stalls test. It ran over hurdles in early August & was last but it's from a family of German sprinter/milers & this 7f looks it's trip. Ran pretty well FTO at Catterick in a modest 7f maiden to come second after not breaking well from the stalls again. It's only had two runs on the flat & the one over hurdles, all on fast ground so how it will go on soft is anybodys guess. This doesn't look the strongest maiden ever & the favourites run four times, never being longer than 7/4 & is still to win. I've had 10pts @ 14/1 with Sporting Odds & would suggest that if anybody as a bet to keep stakes to a minimum. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 About five minutes before the off Wind Shuffle's price dropped from 12/1 into 9/2 & the sp was 5/1. Unfortunatly the beast played up going in, missed the break & was all over the track, ran on late to be well beaten fourth. This is one of those animals that will probably pop up at a price somewhere round one of the gaffs. Nasty fall in the race for Kirsty Milczarek but thankfully she was sat up & did not look too badly hurt. Staked 2402.6pts returns 2128.17pts profit/loss -184.43pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post returns 300pts Ante-post P/L +210pts Scoop6 -£4.00 Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 A very tricky day, big fields & soft ground, typical backend of the flat season fare. Got to have a dip at this Scoop 6 pot, not a bet I do very often but with the bonus this could be worth £1,000,000. I'm taking a banker in one race, two in four legs & three in the other. This would be 48 lines fully permed, a cost of £96 which is a bit rich for such a longshot bet. I have a plan from the pools page in RFO which knocks this down to 10 lines & a cost of £20, if by some miracle I were to find all six winners it lines up five & it's 4/1 to line up all six. I'd never stop kicking my self if I hit six & got nowt so I've covered the same 10 lines in 30p five & sixtimers with VCbet which comes to £21. Theres always the chance that I could have one leg down & still get a fivetimer & theres the place part of the Scoop 6. Leg 1 The bankers up first :eek Hinton Admiral, front runner, distance winner, won on good/soft LTO. Leg 2 The looks to be between the front running Monsieur & Billyandi from the in form Twiston-Davies yard. Leg 3 Three in this race. the top one Invasian, front runs, goes on the ground, lightly raced with only four runs this season & looks to be improving. the bottom one Paparaazi, goes on the ground, will get the trip in a fast run race & will be running on at the death. One from the middle Major Magpie, won LTO on good/soft & stays, should be another running on at the end. Leg 4 Kayf Aramis, goes on soft & stays forever, good Jockey. Juniper Girl, Improved on step up to 2m LTO & extra 2f here should suit, handles the ground. Leg 5 Iron Man, goes on any, jumps well, McCoy on top, slight worry about the trip. Clemax, looks a stayer, goes on soft ground, stable running into form, only 5yo so open to improvement. Leg 6 If by some miracle I'm still going at this point I have Out After Dark from the several who finished in a heap in the Ayr Gold Cup & River Falcon who's run several good races at York & who goes on the ground. Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 i was thinking same about the scoop 6 today as it is likely to reach £1m good luck, i think i'll start a thread on it

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Ah well everything was dead in the water after the second leg, we can but dream. No winner though so the pot will be even bigger next week, back for another go then. Staked 2402.6pts returns 2128.17pts profit/loss -184.43pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post returns 300pts Ante-post P/L +210pts Scoop6 -£45.00 Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Just about the end of the season for me, not much of interest betting wise after today. Catterick 3.15 Looked at this race for the Scoop 6 & I quite like the chance of Green Park 20pts @ 8/1 Sporting Odds. Won off a mark of 90 in the Spring on heavy ground but hasn't shown much since on fast ground till LTO at Ascot when fourth beaten a length on good to soft. Races off 86 here & back on soft ground can go in again. Newmarket 3.30 Derby winner Sir Percy returns to action but will need to be spot on to take this. Hurricane Run has not shown the same level of form as in his 3yo season & may find this trip a bit short for him. Stoute runs three but none of them appeal & the one for me is the top class mare Pride 40pts @ 3/1 Stan James. Goes on any ground but seems to like to get her toe in best. Thought to be a bit unlucky not to win the Arc LTO when arriving just too late, she can use her smart turn off foot to take this Group 1 for France. Scoop 6 Same bet as last week, a banker, a race with three picks & the other four legs with two. Not a full perm, but will line up five if all six winners are found & 4/1 to line up six so I've covered the same 10 lines in 30p five & sixtimers as last week so the total stake is £41. Leg 1 Tough start but Stronghold looks a progressive sort & can beat Byron again. Jeremy goes on ground with cut & is a C&D winner. Leg 2 Earlier in the week I was looking at maybe backing Theatre for this but despite this being 2m 2f a high draw is usually needed & Theatre is out with the washing in box 2. However I've left him in as the rest of his profile seems to fit whats needed to win this. Saint Alebe has run with promise in two runs since returning from a three year injury break. Ebtikaar has a touch of class, goes on any ground & is the third choice. Leg 3 If by some miracle I'm still going I'm on Prince Namid & the above mentioned Green Park in this. Leg 4 Pride is the banker selection. Leg 5 A decent chase & I've had a bet here, more in my thread for the new jumps season. Yardbird & Harry's Dream are the picks. Leg 6 Teofilo & Holy Roman Emperor have the form in the book but theres any number of promising types in this & there will be many clues for next season. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 The Scoop 6 perished after the first leg. Green Park was slow away & never got in a blow. Pride won the Champion in style but due to the money for Hurricane Run went off at 7/2. 60pts staked returns 160pts a profit of 100pts. I made a mistake in my returns after the Arc which I have now corrected. Staked 2462.6pts returns 2288.17pts profit/loss -174.43pts Ante-post 90pts Ante-post returns 300pts Ante-post P/L +210pts Scoop6 -£86.00 So the overall loss on my normal betting is balanced out by the ante-post win & that I believe is that for another year. The early part of the season was my worse run for many years. From the first bet on April 15th to the win of Sir Gerard at Royal Ascot on June 22nd I backed one winner from 32 bets. At this point I was 735pts down plus 40pts ante-post so to get back to where I am now is very pleasing. The absolute low point was Epsom. Having backed the supplemented Galatee for the Oaks two days before the race she was pulled out injured the next day. Then in the Derby Horatio Nelson suffered a fatal injury & spirits were very low. My thanks to all those who have shown interest in my ramblings, especially Bowles for his continued support, much appreciated. Time to go jumping again. Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 For me, your thread is always an interesting read mate - looking forward to the Jumps thread :ok