Rio on the flat 06

[whoneedsrio]

Not the most inspiring start to the flat this year but with the Craven meeting next week things should start to pick up. Kempton 2.10 Dipping a toe in the water at the new aw track which seems to suit most types of runners so far & seems quite a fair track. Royal Alchemist seems to go well fresh but just lacks a finishing kick for me & looks a hard one to win with. Three Wrens is upped in class & this looks a bit too hard for her. Violet Park is another who looks to have a bit to find on form so far & might want soft ground. Bon Nuit has some decent form in the book & ought to go well on this surface, has to give all but one of these 3lb for a listed race win but should run well. The one that takes the eye is Quadrupa 30pts @ 7/2 hills. Track should suit & seems to go well fresh. Some decent form in the Fatherland including a good second in the group 2 German 1000 Guineas when Bon Nuit was well behind. Booking of Frankie looks good & this horse runs from the front so I'm hoping he'll ride a similar sort of race to the one he rode on Song Of Silence here in the Masaka when he made all & almost nicked the race from the front. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Forgot to mention that I've already struck a bet this flat. Interesting piece in the Update this week from the Irish reporter regarding the Jim Bolger trained Heliostatic. This one worked well last Sunday & the 50/1 for the Derby was taken afterwards. Only ran twice last season & first time up was second beaten a length to the current ante-post Derby favourite Horatio Nelson. Took a Curragh maiden after that & was then put away for the winter. By the Derby winner Galileo he is the first foal from Affianced who won races over 7f at 2yo's & over 10f at 3yo's, so he should run well at middle distances. The 50's had gone but I've had 10pts @ 33/1 Paddy Power for the Derby. He runs today at Leopardstown in the Irish 2000 Trial & having just had a look he's around 2/1,9/4 but Paddy Power are going 11/4 & I've had 30pts @ those odds for today. :hope for a decent run. Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Hope this is as good as your jumps thread mate - good luck with it :ok

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06

Hope this is as good as your jumps thread mate - good luck with it :ok

Thanks AK, not a good start yesterday though. Quadrupa drifted badly before the off & finished tailed off as though something was amiss & the race smells a bit fishy to me. Did the stewards ask anyone for an explanation as to why a well fancied horse, with a top jock on took such a walk in the market & then beat nothing home? Heliostatic on the other hand ran a race of much promise. Just caught slightly flatfooted as they turned into the straight & then ran green under pressure & was looking around. He then knuckled down & went between horses but got done on the outside by the Channon horse. He'll come on for this over a bit further & on good ground & he's still 33/1 for the Derby. So far then Staked 60pts returns 0pts profit/loss -60pts Ante-post 10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 At last the flat gets off the ground & C4 have dropped the Craven meeting :sad 3.10 Speciosa took the group 2 Rockfel stakes over C&D last October & sets the standard here, has to give the rest 3lb here for that win. Richard Hills has picked Wasseema of the Hamdan Al Maktoum pair & this well bred sort was only beaten a length behind two more experienced runners on her only start at Newbury. Type to do well this season but needs a big step up today. The one for me is Sweet Travel 40pts @ 3/1 Totalbet. Yet to win but the level of form in second in two group 3's is as good as anything the others here have done. Bred to get this trip & the stable is flying & doesn't usually send them over for a day out. 3.45 Tough looking listed race with a few old timers & some upcoming younger types. Old boys Fire up the Band & the Tatling have weight to give & the latter may also need this run. Quito is fit & took this last year, must go well today. Les Arcs is on a winning run from the aw & beat Quito on soft at Redcar LTO, should go well on this faster ground but needs to step up again. Cape Columbine 10pts @ 12/1 Coral is the one that interests me. Beaten under a length in the Nell Gwyn FTO last season she went on to run well in three group 1's at a mile after that. Drops back to a sprint trip & down in class today, she goes well fresh & is worth a small bet here. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Disappointing run from Sweet Travel yesterday, only fourth. Cape Columbine was backed into 15/2 but was also well beaten. Leaving Newmarket alone today but fancy one at Beverley 5.05 Danetime Lord 40pts @ 5/2 Betfred. Progressive type who won a similar sort of handicap to this on the aw at Wolverhampton LTO. Ran ok on heavy before that & stable think this one will handle fast ground. Carries 6lb pen today but useful apprentice takes 5lb back off, races up with the pace & can get a nice position on the far rail from resonable draw in 10. So far then Staked 110pts returns 0pts profit/loss -110pts Ante-post 10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Another poor run, I expected this one to be up with the pace but it was dropped in behind & then tried to challenge up the middle of the track (not at Beverley). A slow start to the season, don't fancy anything today. So far then Staked 150pts returns 0pts profit/loss -150pts Ante-post 10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Don't like the look of the opener at Newbury & the classic trials are only that in name, so it's just an interest in the 2.40 today. From the past results it looks like a high draw could be prefered, with some straight track form & on ground maybe on the soft side of good. I'm taking two against the field, Another Bottle 20pts @ 12/1 VC Bet who's twice a C&D winner on fast ground but has won on good to soft. Will need to improve a bit but does have decent handicap form & while Tom Tate did nothing wrong with him the move to Roger Charlton can see this one step up even more & win some big handicaps this season The other one is Kamanda Laugh 20pts @ 14/1 Ladbrokes. This one also has straight track form from Newmarket, got stuck in the mud in the Redcar Lincoln but before was encourging second on return at Wolverhampton & ground not as soft today. The stable is going well with it's older horses & this one can run a big race today. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Another Bottle & Kamanda Laugh ran fourth & sixth, theres a good race in both of these & the former will come on for the run. So far then Staked 190pts returns 0pts profit/loss -190pts Ante-post 10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 In a rush cos I'm going out today. Ponty 3.10 Mr Wolf 30pts @ 11/2 Totalbet. This ones three runs three wins at Ponty & likes to be up with the pace, is drawn on the inside in 2 so he can pop out & nab the rail. Ran ok FTO just seven days ago so likely to strip fitter for that today. Stable not in top gear yet but booking of Robert Winston looks good, he's 8 from 25 for this trainers 4yo+ horses. Windsor 6.30 Barry Hills has started the season well & he can take this with Tommy Toogood 40pts @ 11/4 Betfred. Nice maiden win at Lingfield on the aw LTO quicking up nicely & should have no bother round the Windsor turns. Quite well bred & cost a few bob as a yearling & is the type to go on to better things. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Better do an update first after Mondays two losers, I decided to back off a bit after the poor start to the season. I don't usually get going till into May & the start I've made shows why. Anyway back today refreshed & ready to do battle. So far then Staked 260pts returns 0pts profit/loss -260pts Ante-post 10pts Sandown 3.55 Azarole had been in Dubai before a third in a listed race with no pace on the aw LTO so is race fit, not up to this class in the past. Babodana falls between top handicapper & listed group 3 class so is hard to win with, better with cut. Kings Point ran ok on comeback at Newmarket & will improve for the run, bit to find on form here. Momtic goes on fast ground but steps up from handicaps to group 2 here. Something is fit from aw handicap wins but has failed in this class before. Take a Bow has been off nearly a year but goes well fresh, another upped in class. Democratic Deficit took the Craven stakes FTO last season & ran in some good races after. Also been in Dubai & was third six days ago at Leopardstown so should be thereabouts. Rob Roy 50pts @ 2/1 Betfred was a head behind Democratic Deficit in the Craven when denined a run at a crutial point. Injured in the 2000 Guineas after but came back to win a group 3 in the autumn before finding 10f too far on softish ground in the group 1 Champion stakes. Goes well fresh & always worth noting Stoute horses kept in training past 3yo, good jockey booking witn Kinane on top as well (7 from 23 on Stoute's 4yo+ last five seasons) Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Off the mark for the season with Rob Roy, backed into an sp of 6/4. So far then Staked 310pts returns 150pts profit/loss -160pts Ante-post 10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Newmarket all the way today. 2.05 The Stoute yard is in good order & has a fine record in this with three wins from six runs in the last ten years. Thunder Rock 50pts @ 2/1 Betfred is nicely bred & looks the type to improve as a 4yo & Stoute's older horses are always respected. 2.35 A few old timers in here with some more upcoming types but not the strongest group 3. The Tatling usually needs a race or two & the consistant Corridor creeper who's had a run & has a good record second time out can run well, be a bit disappointing if theres not one to beat it though. Hannon is going well & Boogie Street will try to blaze away from the front but is always likely to get done by a finisher. Reverence is improving but unless it chucks it down this ground may be just a bit too quick. Majestic Missile 20pts @ 6/1 VCBet is the choice. Best on fast ground over this trip & improved since the tongue tie has been used. Yard is flying at the moment & frankie takes the ride, no rain please. 3.15 Do we believe the hype or the rumours, George Washington is either the next wonder horse or a quirky nutcase who won't stay. At around 2/1 he's shocking value, ok he might bolt up but it's easy to see him getting wound up & not getting up the hill, Fallon nursing a bad foot is less than ideal as well. Sir Percy as done nothing wrong so far, did he beat Horatio Nelson on merit in the Dewhurst or was that one unlucky? Whatever there is not much between them & at over twice the price Horatio Nelson 20pts @ 8.6 Betfair is the pick. This is likely to be fast & furious & Horatio Nelson can swoop late under Kinane & mow them all down. If that does happen or indeed he runs a good race in defeat the Derby odds are sure to contract & I've also had 30pts @ 5/1 Ladbrokes for The Derby. 3.50 Big field here & a high draw has done well lately, with a big weight no bar to sucess either. Right against the rail in stall 29 is the top weight Something 10pts @ 10/1 Blue Sq. Drops back in trip here but looked a most progressive type & is down in class from last weeks group 2. Little bit to find on the book but this stiff track should suit. I'm taking two against the field here & the other is Swinbook 10pts @ 14.0 Betfair. also drawn high but this one is upped in class & gets in here with only 8st 7lb, dotted up in a 17 runner handicap at Leicester LTO & looks to be going the right way. 4.20 If I could get 2's I'd be on Purple Moon here but 13/8 is the best price. 4.55 Mountain High, also for Stoute is similar to the above. Taken the last two with todays bets, added Corridor Creeper in the Palace House & done four lines each on the Jackpot & Placepot to 1pt, thats 8pts staked. Rio.

[Chopper]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 like the look of your selections at newmarket today rio :ok also like the way you give an explanation as to why you have nominated them two. Firstly the 2:35 i looked at the form and i had a shortlist of three against the field majestic missile has form on gd fm ground and looks one of the classier individuals. Boogie street as you have mentioned will go from the front no worries about whether it will get run of the race and hannon stable in good form. Plus one at a bit of a price paradise Isle has a great record at newmarket which i think is a big plus Michael hills said on the morning line a lot of horses lose there races by not handling the dip at HQ. Although having seen a re run of the dewhurst this morning i can see why you have put up horatio nelson plus we have seen it before a ballydoyle second string beating ther much hyped first. However i backed Sir Percy at 10/1 and looking at his record he only does just enough to win and i wonder if he would have pulled out a bit more as Horatio got upsides. also like the look of channons pair in the predominte at goodwood at majors cast at haydock. If recapturing last seasons form should be to good for todays opponants. :hope :hope

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Hi Chopper, Good run from Sir Percy for you but the wonder horse lived up to the hype, on the day at least, I can still see him boiling over at some point though. Not the best day yesterday with the high point being Swinbrook a non runner :eyes Thunder Rock ran ok in third but Majestic Missile was a major disappointment, backed in to 4/1 but never near in 15th. Horatio Nelson was another who failed to deliver, fading as they hit the rising ground just when he should have been staying on. He'll come on for the run but Sir Percy ran the best Derby trial. Something was also well beat on a poor day for me. With 10pts back from the non runner thats 100pts down on the day. So far then Staked 410pts returns 150pts profit/loss -260pts Ante-post 40pts Newmarket Sunday First thing to note is it's been raining quite heavy, teletext & AOL sport report the ground has good to soft, soft in places. The racing Post web site have managed to state the same on the going page but are still showing good to firm on the cards (the horses mouth my :moon ) In the 2.15 & 2.50 I was looking at the Stoute pair Echelon & Hard Top. The former is now a non runner which looks to leave the race at the mercy of Musicanna but at a best price 7/4 this is a leave alone for me. Hard Top will win good races this season, got bogged down on heavy in the St Leger & while it won't be that soft today conditions now favour Shiroco who's 15/8 in a place & I'm watching in case 2's appears (unlikely) 1000 Guineas. The Spring trials form doesn't look up to much & the winner is likely to follow the pattern of FTO (4 of last 5) which prevails these days. The start to Godolphin's season yesterday was 4 ran, 2 as favourite & all well beaten. Silca's Sister will go on the ground but as yet to go beyond 6f, races up with the pace & I can see her getting tired up the hill. Flashy Wings is another trying a mile for the first time but on breeding ought to stay. Level of form looks below whats needed so far & Channon's luck in this race will not change today. Nannina is a C&D winner having taken the Ascot Fillies mile from the transfered meeting by a short head, staying on well for pressure Looks the type to go on the ground but may just lack the pace for this & might need a bit farther. Race for the Stars was chucked in at the deep end (last of 9) in a group 1 on only her second start & was dropped back in class to win last two starts after. Course winner over 7f on good to soft LTO but this is a big jump back up in class. Rumplestiltskin 40pts @ 9/2 Ladbrokes can land the double for O'Brien & Fallon. Dual group 1 winner last too starts, looked to make hard work of the first of these at the Curragh but had to challenge up the outside & saw too much daylight. Covered up In the Prix Marcel Boussac she quicked up well in the final furlong on ground similar to todays & over todays trip. The one slight worry is O'Brien saying that she may be coming into season. He's a great trainer but he's getting a bit annoying with his pre race comments, as with George Washington yesterday being so fast he may not stay, we shall see. Rio.

[Chopper]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Unlucky yesterday rio I don't think many people would have prdeicted the outcome of the sprint.:wall I agree with you sir percy ran a good derby trial but we could have seen the next rock of gibralter thats what racing is abouts champions and i hope he goes on to prove it. :clap Mick Channons championship point got me out of trouble yesterday but i have backed Flashy wings anti-post for the 1000 guineas at 10/1 and after yesterday was fairly happy however as you have stated the change in the ground has now got me concerned. I was looking for something that will stay and handle a bit of cut in the ground.I am going to back two to try and cover my bet. Will take a chance that silca sister will stay althought seems to have a sprint based pedigree but should handle the ground. However like you i now have to back rumpelstilskin goes on the ground will stay the trip and has the best jockey on board. :ok :ok Two other selections agree with shiroco but also another mick channon horse dream champion at hamilton :hope :hope

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Hope you were on Shiroco Chopper, the 15/8 looks a big price with 20/20 hindsight but I'm really trying to not bet under 2/2 this season. O'Brien says he's happy with the run from his two, I suspect not many others are, yet another well backed horse that was never seen. Well done to the little guys for the win but will the form amount to much? Not a good start to the season again. Staked 450pts returns 150pts profit/loss -300pts Ante-post 40pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 I'm not a big fan of Chester so if I have a bet there stakes are usually reduced a bit. The group races have little appeal from a betting angle. Empress Jain from the in form Jarvis yard & with the tatically astute Philip Robinson on top can ping from the plum stall 1 & take the 3.20 despite the 15lb rise for a win LTO. The best price is 15/8 though so it's a leave alone for me. 2.20 Green Manalishi is in good form but races here off a career high mark of 100, drawn in 8 as well which is about as far off the rail as you'd want on this track. Cape Royal is well drawn in 3, usually breaks well & will need to here. doesn't win that often & is 8lb higher than best ever winning mark today. Merlin's Dancer is in stall 2, all wins over 6f & is another 4lb higher than best winning mark. Judd Street 20pts @ 11/2 Betfred is the choice. At 4yo is open to improvement & won LTO off this mark & carries a 6lb for that. Can hang left which shouldn't be a problem on this track, races up with the pace but stays well at the death which will help in what is likely to be a fast run race. Stable is also in decent nick. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Judd Street was well backed & ran a good race, beaten just under a length by Merlin's Dancer. Staked 470pts returns 150pts profit/loss -320pts Ante-post 40pts Nottingham 5.15 Jake the Snake returns from a long lay off of 884 days when a won an aw 2yo maiden, talked of in classic terms after but clearly had problems. Wouldn't need to be much to beat this lot but I'm taking him on with the Stoute trained Tribe 20pts @ 13/2 Skybet. Up with the pace on comeback from a lay off himself in a muddling race at Bath, this ones being gelded & Stoutey must think he can get a win out of it & it's worth a small bet. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Tribe was a never near fifth. Staked 490pts returns 150pts profit/loss -340pts Ante-post 40pts Not the most inspiring Saturday fare, theres a bit of rain around as well so just the one bet today. Beverley 3.15 Is this on C4? It's a scoop 6 race but it looks like it's not live, maybe their worried it will clash with the Lingfield Oaks trial. Unless it really tips it down & goes soft this should involve those drawn high (top 6 stalls ) Sentiero Rosso has box 18 but is a slow starter & a hold up type. Holbeck Ghyll (17) can race up there, suited by fast ground & a stiff finish. Spanish Ace (16) Also races prominantly, back down in class from decent run in valuable Newmarket handicap, won last two before that, big chance. Armagnac (15) better over 6f, not a good record FTO Handsome Cross (14) Won off 4lb higher than today last season, races up there & looks to be coming into form. Prince Namid (13) run well when placed off higher than today but no show on return this season. This looks between Spanish Ace, Handsome Cross & Holbeck Ghyll 30pts @ 5/1 Bet365, the latter looked progressive last season & the trainer has a fair record here & is starting to find form. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Another loser, not going well at the moment, deep breath & regroup. Heliostatic runs today, just a watching brief for me though. Staked 520pts returns 150pts profit/loss -370pts Ante-post 40pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Is it even going to stop raining? One dry afternoon & all the talk will be drought & hosepipe bans again. Soft ground all over today. Newbury 2.45 Soviet Song is the proven group 1 performer but there are doubts over her preperation & she usually needs her first run. Court Masterpiece is likely to find this just too far on the soft ground. Majors Cast is an improving type but connections having been hoping the rain would stay away. Stoute runs two, Peeress has form with cut & at group level but a couple of those races have dropped right for her, Kinane usually rides but he's on Rob Roy 30pts @ 4/1 VCBet. Type to improve as a 4yo, well fancied for early classics last year but was injured in 2000 Guineas, came back to win later but flopped in Champion stakes over 10f, a mile looks his best trip & hopefully he'll go on the ground today. 3.20 Pearly King is in the Irish Derby & could turn out to be more than a handicapper in time, made hard work of a 4 runner Redcar handicap LTO though & all three starts on faster ground. High Command took a 10f Leicester handicap on good to soft FTO despite hanging a bit & is another going the right way. I'm going with Numeric 20pts @ 8/1 Betdirect, bred to improve over longer trips & took a Chester maiden last week from the front. Placed form on heavy ground last year & looks the type that the in form Gosden yard does well with. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 The only bright spot at the moment is I'm still bettering the SP in most cases, however I can't buy a winner, even managing to stiffen Stoutey's & he could win with a three legged donkey at the moment. It will turn, just hope it's soon. Staked 570pts returns 150pts profit/loss -420pts Ante-post 40pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Taking it steady at the moment but fancy one today. Goodwood 3.15 Backed Blue Java two runs back in my longshots thread in S&S, just got caught close home & beat a head. Won an apprentice race after but couldn't get 2/1 so left it alone. No penalty today for that win but up 3lb for the second, this is his time of year & has won over C&D & handles this ground. The stable is in decent form & the useful Travis Block takes off 5lb. Blue Java 30pts @ 3/1 Blue Sq. Rio.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Keep the head up mate, Im sure it will come good soon enough. :ok

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 Thanks for the support, it will turn round but this is the worst run I've had in a long time. Blue Java was backed into 2/1 but was only fourth. Staked 600pts returns 150pts profit/loss -450pts Ante-post 40pts Newmarket 3.30 Usually takes something half decent to win this, soft ground today. Hogmaneigh won nicely on soft at Nottingham last week & is clearly going the right way, usefull 3lb taken off by the claimer as well but this is a bit harder & needs to improve again. This could be King Orchisios's trip but didn't go on heavy last week & yet to prove he's back from last seasons injury. Obe Brave 20pts @ 13/2 Betdirect is the choice. Decent level of form so far & ought to have won stakes race LTO but just got caught close home. Back in a handicap here & on a fair mark, yet to race on soft but sire Agnes World won the Abbaye on heavy. Stable doing ok & has had a win & a place in this race in the past ten years. Haydock 3.45 Heavy ground here. Peppertree Lane 40pts @ 5/2 Paddy Power made virtually all & ran on well on similar ground at York last week. Runner up Anna Pavlova is 9lb better off for three & a half lengths but the selection can confirm that form. Supaseus is a non runner & Baskerville is wacked up in class after a narrow win LTO. Sir Gerard is the type that Fanshawe dose well with but all form is on fast ground & sire Marju only raced on fast as well. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 And so it goes on. Obe Brave was backed into 4/1 & Peppertree Lane into 13/8 & both failed to place. I'm begining to think I must have broke a mirror or something, still at least my longshots thread in S&S is in profit. Staked 660pts returns 150pts profit/loss -510pts Ante-post 40pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Cursed? Ok so what have I done wrong? It's not enough that I can't as my dear old Dad would have said "tip muck out of a barrow" but I don't believe this. Last night with some time to kill I had a look at Fridays Oaks. After the usual study I come up with an improving filly who would seem to be an the type that will go on the likely ground, relish the step up to 1m 4f & as been supplemented for the race. I take 40pts & 9/2 around this time last night & a quick look this morning shows that she's now shorter & well fancied. A few hours later & suddenly she's had a set back & will miss the race, this is of course the Irish filly Galatee. For fcuks sake now not backing losers is not enough & I don't even get a run for the money. Well thats it gambling gods, the gloves are off, I will be back :@ Rio.

[Tulenos]

Re: Rio on the flat 06 HAve a short break and return in a winning mood, rio;)

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the flat 06

HAve a short break and return in a winning mood' date=' rio;)[/quote'] Cheers mate, I usually back off a bit when I'm in a bad spell & I'm not a big fan of Epsom anyway. It will turn round again. Rio.