Datapunter Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Something i thought about quite some time ago already but i've never found the time to really explore it. So without any real research i'm just going to have a go. The idea is a strategy, basically more about trading than betting, to lay an odds-on favourite in a tournament and then bet on the same favourite on each match as the tournament progresses. If the favourite gets knocked out early you make a profit on the Winner market, if he progresses to the final then by that time you should be in a position of profit overall. !! IF !! you can get odds that are good enough on the individual matches. Update of results after each tournament. Anyone's invited to join in with any other tournaments you might have your eye on. Or post results based on historical info if you have any or try some variations. I'm doing this with a small amount of cash but DON'T advise anyone else to put money on, haven't done any serious research on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAC Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Data, I am currently experimenting with something a bit similar. I placed a 24 bet accumalator on "sure things" which with a £10 stake returns about 3k. The first 8 have won and I am now using the 3k return as money I can back against my selections whilst still keeping in profit. All of the events I have chosen will have available markets for me to bet on. I was thinking of posting it here but I'm not so sure if it's a system per sa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 24, 2006 Author Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment First tournament: Tennis Nasdaq 100 Lay Federer to win 105 @ 1.80 Potential profit = 100 ( after 5% commission ) Potential loss = 84 First match: Federer vs Clement: Back Federer 95 @ 1.05 So, if Federer loses i lose 95 on the match but win 100 on the winner market for an overall profit of 5 if Federer wins then the potential loss is reduced from 84 to 79.5 and on we go to the next match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Federer won giving a profit of 4.51 and on we go to the next match... Back Federer vs Haas 99.51 @ 1.16 ( should have waited a bit, price is going up ) So, if Federer loses i lose 95 but win 100 on the winner market for an overall profit of 5 if Federer wins then the potential loss is reduced from 79.5 to 63.5 and on we go to the next match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archaeus Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment it's a good ideea datapunter, i'll be following with interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Interesting idea, DP. Am I right in saying, the only way you can end up in the negative, is if the favourite does win the competetition, and you don't earn enough when backing him to cover the losses of the initial lay? If so, I think it has great potential. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment That's totally correct Clotty. I'm basically winging this one but the theory is to look at the draw and try to estimate the prices on the potential opponants during the tournament. There is a variation i'll be trying at some point and that is where you do the reverse. Back a player to win the tournament and then lay him/her in the individual matches. This situation would occur when there is no real favourite, so the price on the Winner market is high and the player you select will encounter some weak opponants. ( so you get low prices on the matches ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 28, 2006 Author Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Federer wins , a profit of 15.13 ( after commission ) ( potential loss down to 64.36 ) Next match, Federer vs Tursunov 114.6 @ 1.07 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Good luck with this, although I have to admit I'm a tad sceptical. For the overall strategy to have a positive expectation, then either the initial tournament lay bet or the individual match bets (or both) must have a positive expectation. Do you know which of the bets you expect to have value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 28, 2006 Author Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Totally correct Slapdash, I'm a tad sceptical Good for you but i myself am VERY sceptical :lol Which is why i'm calling it an experiment, i would love to back test some tournaments but the problem is i can't find the odds for the tournament winner at the start of the tournament. www.tennis-data.co.uk only has the odds for matches. Anyone ? Just checked the Australian Open : Federer against Istomin 1.01 Mayer 1.03 Mirnyi 1.04 Haas 1.1 Davydenko 1.06 Kiefer 1.1 So i would have built up a bank of about 38, only profitable if Federer was less than 1.38 to win the tournament at the start. Anyone know what the odds were ? Do you know which of the bets you expect to have value? Frankly i simply don't know. I'm operating under the assumption there is value in Laying the odds-on favourite. But it is no more than an assumption and during the course of a tournament a lot can happen. I'm just going to do this for a couple of tournaments and collect relative info and then see what conclusions can be drawn. Some additional thoughts: - I'm using 95 to start betting on the matches. In case of an upset i make a profit of 5. This of course is at the expense of building the profit up, a possible alternative would be to use the entire 100 profit of the winner market to build the profit on the matches. - I am thinking of adding some in-running trading to increase the odds on the winner market. Back and Lay several times to build up profit making sure the liability never exceeds the profit on the winner market. So the winner market becomes a sort of safety net. You only really need 1 or 2 matches where the trading works out to get into an overall profit situation. - In this particular case i layed at 1.80 only to see the odds drop to 1.60 a couple of hours later, dunno what happened but big difference :unsure BTW Federer is currently at 1.42 to win the tournament. If i was to back him again using the profit so far i would have a considerable loss. ( even had i layed at 1.60 ) So behind on schedule. ( Lay 105 @ 1.60 = -63 , Back 125 @ 1.4 = 50, overall loss -13 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment So i would have built up a bank of about 38, only profitable if Federer was less than 1.38 to win the tournament at the start. Anyone know what the odds were ? Can't recall exactly, but I think he was around 1.75 before Safin, Agassi and Nadal withdrew, then building up to the tournament he dropped steadily - I got him at 1.55 the Saturday before the tournament started:ok. Good luck with this Data:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Good luck DP. I think foolsgold has put forward a similar (or maybe the same) idea here http://punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=23955 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted March 28, 2006 Share Posted March 28, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Good luck with this, although it does appear to be exactly the same as my thread in the WC forum from the start of the month. Happy to have you test it out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment I've seen a similar system elsewhere but kind of in reverse to this as follows ... i.e. back an decent outsider to win the event outright (must be a reasonably seasoned player on a decent side of the draw) .... Take say Kiefer .... back him in the outrights at 20's ... Then lay against him in each round (presuming he's going to be favourite in rounds up to 1/4 final) .... So you have say Back outright 20/1 for €100 to win €2,000 Match 1: Kiefer lay odds 1.4: Lay €120 at 1.4; so if he wins the outright the net comes in to €1,952 but if he loses you make €20. Match 2: Kiefer lay odds of 1.6 : Lay €180 at 1.6; so if he wins the outright the net comes into €1,844; but if he looses you make €24 (net; (€180 - €108 - €48) Bacially you keep laying him until he meets the fav and gets the road - if he gets past the fav on his side of the draw your outright bet should then be able to be layed to make a profit overall; even allowing for your "lost" bets laying him in the earlier rounds. I've seen it completed for 2 tournie's only and in both cases the player backed outright lost in the first few rounds; thus making a profit via the lay of him in that round which was > than the back outright and the lost "lay" from the previous round. I hope that makes sense! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 29, 2006 Author Share Posted March 29, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment He wins another one for a profit of 7.62 on we go: Federer vs Blake: 122.22 @ 1.15 potential loss down to 56.74 ( I'll need an average of about 1.12 on the semi-final and final to get into profit :unsure ) Hodgey & Foolsgold, YES, this is exactly the same as your idea on the WC, (good read that), few different details but in essence the same. In fact it works on just about any tournament with direct knock-out stages. See great minds think alike ;) Rafa Makes perfect sense to me, will probably have a go at that one at some point. Plenty of tournaments coming up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment I'm also with Rafa on the outsider thing, I've already posted in that a couiple of days ago suggesting the dutch could be the perfect example at the Wc. Going to be interesting to see if this works Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment I'm also with Rafa on the outsider thing' date=' I've already posted in that a couiple of days ago suggesting the dutch could be the perfect example at the Wc. Going to be interesting to see if this works[/quote'] you take the dutch i'll take the portuguese :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted March 31, 2006 Author Share Posted March 31, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment ( i'm rounding off the numbers now, don't take then literally ) ( ok i confess, i've made a mess of my notes :$ ) Another winner for a profit of 18 on we go: Federer vs Ferrer: 140 @ 1.06 potential loss down to 38 Now i could make 8 on this one bringing the loss down to 30, that would mean to get into profit i need odds of about 1.21 on the final. That is unlikely to happen i think as Federer is already down to 1.21 to win the tournament, so i'm looking at a loss :unsure Assuming i'll be able to get 1.12 on the final then: 148 @ 1.12 = 17.76 total profit made on the matches = 70 liability on the lay = -84 looking at a loss of 14 However i must point out that i layed at 1.80 only to see that price drop to 1.60 within a few hours. Dunno what happened but had i layed at 1.60 i would have been in profit ! So no conclusions draw from this first attempt just yet. Sorry, i seem to have made a mess of my notes, i'll have a good look and run some numbers more accurately when it's over. ( And be better prepared for the next attempt ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted April 1, 2006 Author Share Posted April 1, 2006 Re: Tournament betting experiment Federer into the final 8 points profit made. So i can put 148 @ 1.13 on the final for a profit of 19 bringing the total to 72 and the liability on the winner market is 84, leaving me with a loss of 12 should Federer win it, and a profit of 5 should he lose it. Hope i got that right, will revise in detail next week, the reason i've messed up my notes is because i've also been doing a bit of trading on the matches so i'm actually in profit because of that. Something too look at for the next tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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