FleetFanatic Posted March 25, 2006 Author Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Lots of 30+ qualifiers (odds bet365): 46-50 Carlisle 8/15 :D (Rating dependant on Boston's result tonight) 46 Nott'm F 4/7 :D 46 Oldham 8/13 :D 44 Man Utd 2/11 40 Watford 8/15 :$ 40 Southend 4/6 :D 36 Chelsea 1/4 :D 36 Tottenham 4/9 36 Hereford 1/2 :$ 32 Wolves 8/13 :$ 32 Aldershot 8/11 :@ 31 Cheltenham 4/6 :D 30 Liverpool 4/7 :D 30 Sheff Utd 4/6 :D 20+ qualifiers: 27 Stevenage 4/6 :D 26 Barnsley 4/6 :wall 22 Wrexham 4/6 21 Leeds 8/15 :wall Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 25, 2006 Author Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Liverpool are in there as the 5-fold will always be 1 from each division - they had the best odds of the Premiership qualifiers. Sheff Utd are still 2nd despite not winning since 1st Feb - based on the season long states they are seriously overdue a win - the fact they haven't been winning must surely mean we have got better odds than we would nomally get for them. As for Hereford / Aldershot - ratings of 36 and 32 - yet odds of 1/2 and 8/11 - surely Aldershot are far better value at 8/11. As ever, I am confident 'pre-weekend' - we bet to win but nobody knows if we will win until the results come in. :hopeGreat calls about Liverpool & Sheff Utd :clap - the issue of Hereford or Aldershot didn't matter as they both lost! :wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 25, 2006 Author Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles you have my sympathies mate- aldershot was a system pick for me too and its fcuking cost me :wall Being on nights meant I didn't go to watch my lot - now I'm furious. :@ :@ :@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 25, 2006 Author Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles morning Fleet and your fleet. :D i have now just finished creating a back testing program for the system posted here. i am able to go through the season, spitting out the selections. all the data is ready and the odds have been compiled for each weekend since the start of the season. i just need to check a few criteria before i start. :) all 5 english divs (prem to conf) :) friday to monday games only :) values >= 20 :) odds from bet365 (also 'best' odds from bet+win, lads, whill and bet365) :) do not count the first 6 games to allow 'form' to build what odds range shall we go for for each selection? do you normally go for 8/15 to 10/11? i.e. between 1.53 and 1.91 on bet365? any other ideas or mistakes, let me know. if you give me some odds cut offs, then i will let you know how it went. :clapBet365 - each time it is always the teams with the best odds. Midweek if enough teams qualify. You can't pick and choose best odds available as you wouldn't be able to do an acca between different bookies. Bet365 are more often than the not offering the best odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Me thinks a classic relegation struggle scenario :- I watched enough of Norwich & Coventry struggling every season in the 80's/90's to know what weird results these can throw in. Still a good amount of winners in there FF - just not quite linked up right. Time will only tell how our various methods hold up at this time - it maybe all these predictions are best in the middle 3/4 of the season ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 25, 2006 Author Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I'm thinking of combining the stats with a few 'gut instincts'. But then it would no longer be a system. In other bets, I got 5 home wins all above evens, mostly in league 2, only to be stuffed by Aldershot AGAIN! :spank HMMMM - 5 HOME WINS ABOVE EVENS AND I GET STUFFED BY A 6TH TEAM AT ODDS-ON - GREED IS RUINING ME. :rollin :spank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles If you'd have done the top 5 rated - Watford would have scuppered you FF - hard to know what to do maybe banks of 3 x 3 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 25, 2006 Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Bet365 - each time it is always the teams with the best odds. Midweek if enough teams qualify. You can't pick and choose best odds available as you wouldn't be able to do an acca between different bookies. Bet365 are more often than the not offering the best odds. but what's the lowest odds and highest odds that you take? you often discard some. which? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 25, 2006 Author Share Posted March 25, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles "each time it is always the teams with the best odds." meaning I take the 7 teams (or teams) with the best odds and discard the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles "each time it is always the teams with the best odds." meaning I take the 7 teams (or teams) with the best odds and discard the rest. what about doing any 6 from 7 plus all 7 - would allow for weeks with aldershit by giving you at leat soemthing back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles from backtesting, excluding this weekend's results: 2 team accumulator, rating 20+ wins11 weeks27strike40.7%av win odds1.53 profit-1.19 yield-4.4%3 team accumulator, rating 20+ wins9 weeks27strike33.3%av win odds1.52 profit4.88 yield18.1%4 team accumulator, rating 20+wins6weeks27strike22.2%av win odds1.57profit9.61yield35.6%5 team accumulator, rating 20+wins5weeks26strike19.2%av win odds1.62profit29.72yield114.3% 6 team accumulator, rating 20+ wins4weeks25strike16.0%av win odds1.62profit48.20yield192.8%7 team accumulator, rating 20+wins3weeks23strike13.0%av win odds1.65profit75.08yield326.5%8 team accumulator, rating 20+wins1weeks21strike4.8%av win odds1.68profit40.96yield195.1%9 team accumulator, rating 20+wins0weeks18strike0.0%2 team accumulator, rating 30+wins10weeks25strike40.0%av win odds1.52profit-1.77yield-7.1%3 team accumulator, rating 30+wins7weeks19strike36.8%av win odds1.52profit5.38yield28.3%4 team accumulator, rating 30+wins4weeks17strike23.5%av win odds1.54profit5.53yield32.6%5 team accumulator, rating 30+wins3weeks14strike21.4%av win odds1.58profit15.64yield111.7%6 team accumulator, rating 30+wins3weeks9strike33.3%av win odds1.60profit41.75yield463.9%7 team accumulator, rating 30+wins0weeks2strike0.0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles in summary these are the % yields for various numbered team accumulators and ratings thresholds: rating rating 20+ 30+ 2 -4% -7% 3 18% 28% 4 36% 33% 5 114% 112% 6 193% 464% 7 327% -100% 8 195% 9 -100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles what about doing any 6 from 7 plus all 7 - would allow for weeks with aldershit by giving you at leat soemthing back....Except Barnsley drawing screwed the 7-fold too. Aldershot merefly fcuked the treble and 5-fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Interesting muppet - that suggests we would get more than 1 a season & a profit. That means this method for selection will remain as it is. Now if we factor in the increased staking and land 2 within 10 weeks of each other the yield would be even bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles yeah i forgot to say these yields are straight accumulators and are level betting strategies - unlike your stages of banking outlined at the start of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF - Don't know how this will work but surely if the same banker 3 teams are also in the 5 & 7 accy's your stuffed - like Aldershit this weekend. I'm not proposing a knee jerk reaction here but it seem to be rather heavily reliant on banker teams performing (I know they are supposed to win but they don't always) Could you not split into 3 * 3 or 4 * 3 banks depending on the number of qualifying teams and then doubling up the banks. e.g. you could have a*b or a*c or b*c - you could then have the massive a*b*c as well There is probably a fancy betting name for this scheme - but I just thought of it - LOL I don't know how you would split the teams - but it would take out a ruined weekend if one of the banker fails - what do you think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Treble Selections: Bank now £295.04 Next bet £10 7-fold Selections: Bank now £664.00 Next bet £36.50 (attempt 5, level 2) 5-fold Selections Bank now: £90 Next bet £10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles MIDWEEK RATINGS: TUESDAY: BURNLEY 8 PRESTON 31 MK DONS -29 CARLISLE 45 ROCHDALE 13 DAGENHAM 24 HALIFAX 27 KIDDERMINSTER -13 TAMWORTH -26 WEDNESDAY: MAN UTD 37 QPR 4 BOSTON 11 This means there will be a bet, as soon as bet365 put odds up for the conference matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF - Don't know how this will work but surely if the same banker 3 teams are also in the 5 & 7 accy's your stuffed - like Aldershit this weekend. I'm not proposing a knee jerk reaction here but it seem to be rather heavily reliant on banker teams performing (I know they are supposed to win but they don't always) Could you not split into 3 * 3 or 4 * 3 banks depending on the number of qualifying teams and then doubling up the banks. e.g. you could have a*b or a*c or b*c - you could then have the massive a*b*c as well There is probably a fancy betting name for this scheme - but I just thought of it - LOL I don't know how you would split the teams - but it would take out a ruined weekend if one of the banker fails - what do you think ?Hasn't always been that the 3 treble teams were in the 7-fold. This is because treble is 3 teams 30+ best odds 7-fold is 7 teams 20+ best odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 26, 2006 Author Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles However..... .....I am giving things a bit of thought. The treble should stay as it is - it's only £10 loss from the bank when losing & based on typical odds we get about 3/1 on average. The 7-fold - one win a season and we're covered. But the 5-fold: 5-fold Selections 30 Liverpool 4/7 3-1 :D 30 Sheff Utd 4/6 3-0 :D 40 Southend 4/6 3-0 :D 31 Cheltenham 4/6 3-1 :D 32 Aldershot 8/11 0-1 :@ :@ :@ I am tempted to make this 6 x £5 bets: 5 x 4-folds & 1 x 5-fold. The 4 that won would have returned £37.38 to £5 stake - in other words, a small profit on the overall cost of £30. We could place this one on that basis, with no increase in stakes for a 4 out of 5 win - only an increase in stakes if all 5 come in? That increase would be all winnings from previous bet - half of it banked, the other half split into 3 stakes. Remember this bet only takes place if we have a suitable selection from all 5 divisions. At least that way we get a slight return even with 1 loser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF - after further thought the trouble with the method I stated above is that it couldnt be placed online or with bet365 whose odds we both prefer. (I think it's a possibility though - and I'm going to look into this and backtest on my thread results to see if it increase the profit) I guess in essence what I'm suggesting is that it's probably wise to check beforehand that no one team is in all three of your accy selections. Still a great formula you worked out and excellent results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 27, 2006 Author Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles MIDWEEK RATINGS: TUESDAY: BURNLEY 8 11/10 PRESTON 31 8/15 MK DONS -29 19/10 CARLISLE 45 4/6 ROCHDALE 13 1/1 DAGENHAM 28 8/11 HALIFAX 27 8/13 KIDDERMINSTER -13 6/4 TAMWORTH -34 9/5 WEDNESDAY: MAN UTD 37 2/7 QPR 4 1/1 BOSTON 11 8/11 This means there will be a bet, as soon as bet365 put odds up for the conference matches.Man Utd are too short as expected, but I'll have a treble on TUESDAY: PRESTON 31 8/15 CARLISLE 45 4/6 DAGENHAM 28 8/11 Won't be the first time the midweek bet has included a team rated in the 20's. £10 staked in an attempt to return £44.14 :hope Bank now £285.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 27, 2006 Author Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF - after further thought the trouble with the method I stated above is that it couldnt be placed online or with bet365 whose odds we both prefer. (I think it's a possibility though - and I'm going to look into this and backtest on my thread results to see if it increase the profit) I guess in essence what I'm suggesting is that it's probably wise to check beforehand that no one team is in all three of your accy selections. Still a great formula you worked out and excellent results.Oh you could - you just place them as seperate bets. Assuming you mean 3 banks of 3: Bet 1 - teams 1 2 3 4 5 6 Bet 2 - teams 1 2 3 7 8 9 Bet 3 - teams 4 5 6 7 8 9 Bet 4 - teams 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 My only concern is that the stakes would be used up far quicker and we would need a higher strike rate to keep it paying for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I've been paper testing a few things related to these ratings and, although the samples are small, some interesting things are appearing! Laying the away team if the home team is rated 20+ Bets Placed 33 Units Staked 2,099.50 Units Returned 1,994.78 Profit (104.72) Yield -4.99% Strike Rate 78.79% Average Odds 1.18 Average Stake 63.62 Not good. But check this out. Laying the home team if they are negative rated: Bets Placed 55 Units Staked 1,228.80 Units Returned 886.64 Profit (342.16) Yield -27.85% Strike Rate 50.91% Average Odds 1.53 Average Stake 22.34 Which means backing negative rated teams shows a huge profit of 329pts! :eek Bets Placed 55 Units Staked 550.00 Units Returned 879.00 Profit 329.00 Yield 59.82% Strike Rate 49.09% Average Odds 3.23 Average Stake 10.00 Obvioulsy, like I said the samples are tiny and maybe this is down to the stage of the season we're at, but will defo be worth monitoring until the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles backing the negative home team eh? were these trebles or singles? did you back every negative team, ie all below zero, or just bottom 3 or 5 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles backing the negative home team eh? were these trebles or singles? did you back every negative team, ie all below zero, or just bottom 3 or 5 ?? Every home team below zero backed as singles. The profit figure is boosted by these 2 results that I would call shocks: Fulham 1 Chelsea 0 Odds 9.00 Southport 2 Accrington 0 Odds 7.20 But even taking them out it's still a 187pts profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles interesting stuff. from 594 games below zero rating: 34.5%H29.5%D36.0%A possible odds to follow if i can dig them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles backing negative rated matches, as singles: 594 games -74.15 profit -12.5% yield :@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles alright fleet mate. going well, gutted about aldershot-scarboro too:wall for this week i make a few conference games different to you. my league tables are correct, do you mind checking (even though it DOES NOT AFFECT your treble selection - i just make dagenham a bit higher) CONFDag and RedCrawley Town+28CONFKidderminsterGrays-14CONFTamworthExeter-34 keep up the top work. :clap EDIT: do halifax (8/13) not qualify over preston (8/15), unless odds have changed since you looked on bet365? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SensiSteve Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Great calls about Liverpool & Sheff Utd :clap - the issue of Hereford or Aldershot didn't matter as they both lost! :wall Hiya Fleet, Unlucky at the weekend, the Shots just never got the rub of the green. Just one of those days. They dominated possesion, had numourous chances, the ball would just not go in the back of the net. Scarborough had one shot in the whole match. I did the 5 fold as i like the idea of a team from each division. Although as i suggetsed last week I dropped the Shots(they are my local team) so i never back my own team and brought in Hereford:@, who i would have bet my life savings on them beating Kiddy. I also dropped Sheff utd for Wolves :wall (still cant believe they lost to Wednesday) I also as i was feeling a little flush saturday morning followed your treble for the 1st time, only as said above changing Shots for Stevenage this time. So thank you for that one as it was your ratings that brought it in.:clap As you know when you win, you start to think you can always win, so i covered a few mid week games without checking any ratings. Probably just giving some of the winnings back but hey what the hell. These were my random midweek pics Spurs Preston Carlisle Brentford Dagenham Halifax Exeter :hope Good luck with your midweek games, lets have ourselves a winner and of course a home defeat for Gravesend at the weekend.:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts