Djordje Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Basically estimations in this version are the same like in previous system (Value Estimations System), but with one 'small' difference - I included bookies percentage to get more realistic odds. Final percentage for every match now consists from following partial percentages: 1.overall record 2.home vs away record 3.recent form 4.recent home vs away form 5.h2h overall 6.h2h home 7.correction percentages=1/bookies_odds The key of this system is still staking plan: stake=((perc-1)/(odds-1)+perc)*100 value=perc*odds This time I will include double chances (1x and x2) and asian handicap (level ball and +/- 1/2). Correction percentages will be calculated from Ladbrokes odds. Leagues covered - all English leagues (EPL to Conference). Bookmakers - various, but no betting exchanges. Starting bank is virtual 1000€, but all the bets will be my real bets. Maximum bet is still 5% of current bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 good luck mate :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 watching with interest :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 Thank you guys. This time we should have more 'normal' bets, but I hope there will be some winners @long odds, like in previous system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 ... good luck with the new system Djordje.As you say selections will be more in line with the 'norm', odds will probably be shorter, but winners will become more regular I think.Should eliminate heavier losses.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 Djordje, forgive my ignorance as I'm new here but I don't understand a couple of things - in the pick columns it says underneath yes or no what does this mean exactly - also in the same column the selection is marked 1 or x or 2 which I can understand - but one of the sleections says x2 ? TIA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 ... Hi Kanga and welcome. Djordje's yes or no column refers to whether he has used Head to Head statistics as in previous times the two teams have met, or not used them at all. The X2 selection is simply his first prediction is likely to be a draw failing that, could be an away win.Not a straight forward choice but two way.Hope that that clears it up for you.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 9, 2006 Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 Thanks Merlin, So just to clarify the x2 is placed as 2 seperate bets and the odds quoted of 1.5 is the average of the draw and away win odds ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 thanks merlin for explanation ;) Kanga - 'x2' is double chance which means that bet is won if guest doesn't lose ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 .... must admit that I would normally fancy Swansea here, although the Dons have been playing better recently.Good luck with the new bets though Djordje.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 12, 2006 Author Share Posted January 12, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 12, 2006 Author Share Posted January 12, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 16, 2006 Author Share Posted January 16, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 16, 2006 Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 .... looks like the old system may have been better after all Djordje.:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 16, 2006 Author Share Posted January 16, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 time will tell Derek ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 17, 2006 Author Share Posted January 17, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 .... there are already warning signs there I fear Djordje, won 3, lost 10, and a negative 45.21 yield does not make good reading. Still it's early days as you say, so good luck and hope that it picks up for you!:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 18, 2006 Author Share Posted January 18, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 DateBet IDHome AwayH2H usedPickOdds Stake [units] Stake [€]Bookmaker 18.01.06.#16BostonvsCarlisleyesx@3.3 5.2 20.43 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 DateBet IDHome AwayH2H usedPickOdds Stake [units] Stake [€]BookmakerProfit [units]Profit [€] 18.01.06.#16BostonvsCarlisleyesx@3.3 5.2 20.43 Bet365-5.20-20.43start bank [€]1000.00stake [€]574.25profit [€]-234.73balance [€]765.27yield [%]-40.88bets16winners4average odds2.42strike rate0.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 Monday Jan 23 Bet IDHome AwayH2H usedPickOdds Stake [units] Stake [€]Bookmaker #25West HamvsFulhamno2@3.5 6.9 31.92 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 24, 2006 Author Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Value Estimations v1.1 Bet IDHome AwayH2H usedPickOdds Stake [units] Stake [€]BookmakerProfit [units]Profit [€] #25West HamvsFulhamno2@3.5 6.9 31.92 Bet365-6.90-31.92start bank [€]1000.00stake [€]890.85profit [€]-106.71balance [€]893.29yield [%]-11.98bets25winners10average odds2.46strike rate0.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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