NFL wk15

[gazzyg]

Very early this week...got a busy end to week I'm back to Seattle for this weeks pick Seattle (-7) at Tennesee Division champs Seattle looking to ensure the first round bye with a win. 4-9 Titans ( v poor poor teams San Fran, Baltimore and Houston twice - 3 combined posting a record of 7-32 this season) surely outclassed by the 11-2 Seahawks who have put struggling teams Eagles and San Fran away last 2 weeks by a combined total of 83 to 3. The D's working sacking QB's for fun - best in NFL and the running game of Alexander sets up competant QB Hasselbeck to throw when he sees fit. A QB who I'm still not sure on throwing the odd bad interception hes' cut them right down this year probably 'cause his line are giving him decent protection thus few sacks and hurried throws resulting in interceptions. A Good team with a big incentive to win v one just praying for the seasons end, -7 looks a tasty one to me

[TazaD]

Re: NFL wk15 Oh, how I've been waiting for this week to arrive.... San Diego ML (3.89) Big bet for me. This is the best, most balanced team that Indi has faced all season by a long way. Indi haved played just 3 teams in the top 15 for total offense...Cinci scored 37, NE scored 21, St. L scored 28 (were up 17-0 before losing Bulger). SD are 8th, and have the running game to keep Manning off the field, and also the abilty to pass downfield for big plays. (SD are 3rd for scoring...Cinci are 4th) The thing that seperates SD from the other teams here is their ability to play defense as well. They are no. 1 at stopping the run, which will force Manning to throw the ball more than he has had to so far, and will make it tough for Indi to convert 3rd downs to keep possession. Indi won this meeting last year 34-31 @ home as -7 favs...but...SD were 15 points up in the last quarter, before Indi got a TD from a kick-off return, and then scored a TD and 2 pt coversion with 56 seconds left to tie the game...they won in OT. With only 3 games left SD really need a win here to stay in the play-off race...I really do believe they are the better team in this game, and the price is huge. (Although predictable enough!) TB @ NE under 36 As mentioned last week, just 2 of Tampa's road games have been higher than this...both have been indoors....their games av. 31.6 away. NE's defensive worries have been well documented this season, but throughout their run D has held firm, allowing just 3.7 ypc. Again, as mentioned last week, Tampa have real problems scoring when their run game doesn't get going. Game time temp will be below freezing, so expecting a tough, low-scoring game between two tough defenses. Jets @ Miami under 35.5 Continuing to ride the Jets road under train! The total is inflated by the Jets scoring 26 last week...but a) it was at home, b) against a crappy defense. Again, in 4 games on the road Bollinger has put up 3, 14 (v. Atl who have a terrible run D), 3, 0 & 3. Because of his struggles on the road, the team relies on a solid running game, but Miami allow just 3.7 ypr and should be able to hold the Jets in check. The first meeting this season @ NYJ was 17-7 (with Pennington) and last years meeting @ Miami was 9-17. No reason to suspect any fireworks here either. Chicago -3 (1.83) Atlanta just can't stop teams running...they allow 4.7 ypr...and that's what Chicago do best, run the ball and play very tough D. The Bears will run the ball down Atlanta's throats all day, and keep the run-oriented Falcon offense quiet...they allow just 8 ppg at home so far...they will have enough success running and making plays when they have to to win this one comfortably. Cleveland @ Oakland under 40.5 High total for a Cleveland game, as only 3 of their games have gone over this number all season. For some reason the Oakland offense continues to get over-rated each week...they've scored 21+ in 3 games, KC, Tenn and Buff who are all in the bottom 8 in the NFL for y/play allowed. Cleveland is 13th. Cleveland have also allowed less TD's than FG's this season. Cleveland don't really have an explosive offense to take advanatge of Oakland's weak D, so expecting another relatively low scoring Browns game.

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk15 Saturdays games Tampa Bay @ New England I'll be taking the under 37. Tampa are 6-1 under on their last 7 road games, whilst for NE the under is 4-1 in last 5 games overall. When you take into account the fact that NE can clinch their division if they win today (I think), and Tampa are in a 3 way battle for the NFC south this will be a must see encounter, and I can't wait. Kansas City @ NY Giants The lack of any reasonable pass D suggest that this will be an exciting game. Eli is growing into his role as the leader of the Giants and KC will put up big numbers through the air too. Although the total pts are currently running at about 47-48 I'll be extremely surprised if this is under that. 21-28 is not inconcievable, and that is all I'd need. Oh, and taken from NFL wk11 thread;

Indy please. They will lose, but when? I'm going for Seattle wk 16.

Going to stand by that, I think...but I'll leave tomorrows games til later, when I'm sulking because I got knocked out of the betfair freeroll early.

[gazzyg]

Re: NFL wk15 San Diego looking like a nice little earner :nana Don't think 16-0 was ever a possibility not because SD or Seattle were better teams just because at 13-0 and home field advantage secured through the play offs there's nothing to be gained playing hard but everything to lose though injury thus a Colts team just ticking over in 2nd gear for a few weeks. Amazing price considering the wind down was clear to see this week.

[stereoman]

Re: NFL wk15 It was looking good. Muggins here put £20 on San Diego (-7.5) in-running because I thought Indy were due for a loss. 17-16 to the Colts now! :eek :(

[gazzyg]

Re: NFL wk15

wk 7 :@ Seattle - Fair enough you have the lead you don't wanna blow it but I was real chuffed to see them kneel 2-37 off the clock 8 yards from the Rams goal line ...hope they get stuffed next week[quote wk 15 - ditto:( 14pts up - foot off the gas - 24 straight pts condeded to McNair and his woeful Titans (310 yds passing :$ ) and a 3 minute no play wind down.... Don't care how thwy do week v Colts in a meaningless game but hope they get stuffed first play-off game. Bad attitude teams - drive ya potty :tongue2 :lol :@

[Ra1nmaker]

Re: NFL wk15

San Diego ML (3.89)

Great tipping, great price. Had a cheeky £10 on it as I was watching it.:notworthy

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk15 Fair play to TazaD, who has been predicting this would happen for 57 years. Well done mate - you were right.:notworthy :clap

[stereoman]

Re: NFL wk15 Aye, you throw enough mud, it'll stick eventually. :tongue2 Thought I was done for and that Indy would at least cover. What odds San Diego (-7.5) BEFORE the match? :eek Anybody think Dallas would get that much of a thumping from the Redskins?! :loon

[TazaD]

Re: NFL wk15

thus a Colts team just ticking over in 2nd gear for a few weeks. Amazing price considering the wind down was clear to see this week.

I don't think that was the case at all, gazzyg. This team wanted 17-0 BADLY...Did you see Manning on the sidelines after Turner broke the last TD run? He was very nearly in tears. There's every chance they will rest players now tho...Will be funny to see a 13-1 team as a dog next week I reckon. ;) BUT....I still maintain that they are an extremely over-rated team...their only 2 TD's this week both came from vey short field after SD turnovers...26 yards and 4 yards!! Home ground advantage or not, they will struggle from here...let's look at some likely match-ups.... Denver. I'd have the Bronco's as favs there (That's just my opinion...not what the line will be obviously) SD. Would win again if given the chance...not sure they'll make it tho. NE. Close game to call now with NE defense back to 90% health. Cinci...yeah, give Indi the edge there. Pittsburgh...Tough game to call with the Steelers back to full strength. KC...Silly as it sounds, I'd have them only as slight dogs. Great running game, and surprisingly strong run D. (Although allowing Tiki 220 yesterday was poor, and either them or SD will make it) If they still manage to sneak through 2 play-off games against that lot, then comes the SB.... Carolina would beat the pants off them. Seattle would be a close game to call, but edge to the Seahawks. I'd have Chicago as slight favs now with Grossman back. Giants would be a close call...Still not convinced of Eli on the road, but they'd be in it all the way... ...and Washington (although unlikely to get there now) would also be getting a chuck of my $$. So there you go. 11 teams that I think are equal if not better than Indi right now. What odds San Diego (-7.5) BEFORE the match? :eek Not sure, stereoman, but I think they were about 3.89 at PK 'em. :ok (lol! Just messin'!)

[chala]

Re: NFL wk15 Anyone got any opinions on tonight's game on Five Ravens v Packers. Just finished work for xmas, so probably gonna stay up and watch this one, so will probably have a little punt. Don't know a lot about the NFL myself but just looking at the stats, might there be a bit of value in the Packers +3.5 at 2.04? Although they've got a pretty poor away record of 1 & 6, a lot of the games have been pretty close affairs. Out of those 6 away defeats, they've lost by 3 points twice, 5 once and 7 once.

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk15 Personally I would not touch GB with a very large stick like object. Thing is I feel pretty much the same about Baltimore too. Flip a coin chala. Sorry mate I hope I'm wrong but this game has the potential to put you off NFL for life. Even I am considering giving this one a miss. Only considering mind. If I was forced I'd be tempted to go for the under total pts (combined record 7 over 18 under with 1 no bet), but I doubt you'll get much value. Hope this helps (and I hope it is a good game for you mate.:ok

[chala]

Re: NFL wk15 Cheers for your opinions Mr V. I thought someone would probably say this game was too close to call, I'm just in one of those fancy a little punt moods. Might go with the under 33.5pts at even money instead, but the only thing is I can't cheer either team on then!

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk15 Heads or tails then chala. :lol

[peachy]

Re: NFL wk15 Favre hasn't thrown a TD in 2 weeks.A wounded dog......Try GB over 12 pts @ 11.5 at the mo on Betfair.Me thinks Brett might cut loose.

[peachy]

Re: NFL wk15 Try Samkon Gado (GB) First TD scorer @ 6/1. 7 TDs from the last 7 mediocre performances.I'm on!!

[chala]

Re: NFL wk15

Favre hasn't thrown a TD in 2 weeks.A wounded dog......Try GB over 12 pts @ 11.5 at the mo on Betfair.Me thinks Brett might cut loose.

I've gone with GB by 7-12pts at 8.4 on betfair, for small stakes.

[peachy]

Re: NFL wk15 just read on nfl.com packers are 21 of 26 December-January games since Mike Sherman took over as head coach. Have just doubled up on my original bet & had a saver on 7-12.Come on the Pack!!

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL wk15 Oh dear, I wish I'd seen this before. :sad :sad Hi peachy, :welcome to PuntersLounge and thank you for your thoughts. However I have to say that as reliable as that stat may seem it does not take into account Green Bays miserable year, and there inability to defend. Nor does it mention the awful injuries GB have suffered - at one time I think Brett Favre had no first choice receiver to throw to as they were all injured. It is looking like my under prediction has failed too. Sorry chala.

[peachy]

Re: NFL wk15 48-3!! Oh well, back to the drawing-board.