Mr Intensity Posted November 16, 2005 Share Posted November 16, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November At about 3.4 against Fed, that leaves 2.12 against Nalbandian AND Davydenko/Gaudio. That's about 1.46 against each, I'd expect him to be a little shorter, maybe 1.44 against Nalbandian and 1.33 in the semi. Pinnacle have opened with Ljubicic at 1.478 against Nalbandian. Something 1.50 or above would be much appreciated:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 16, 2005 Share Posted November 16, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Gaudio will make the semis - no question about it. It's a bloomin disgrace people like Coria, Gonzalez and Puerta are in this tourny... :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 16, 2005 Share Posted November 16, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November 50pts Ljubicic-Federer 2-0 (1.60 @ Ladbrokes) The Ljubicic-Nalbandian match is the decider which would determine who joins Federer in the SF and I just can't help but feel Ljubicic is available at a cracking price to beat the Argentine(head-to-head may read 1-1, but clearly on current form, the Croat is streets ahead of the Argentine). Putting it bluntly, I don't think there's much to explain at all - it wasn't a case of Bandy being great when he beat Coria as much as the latter being so appalling I'd have put money on myself to beat him in straight sets(how anyone at this level can make 13 double faults in 5 successive service games is beyond me)! :lol Federer might not have won a game in straight sets so far, but I can't see that not changing after tomorrow given how pathetic Coria has been in his 2 matches to date against both Ljubicic and Nalbandian. If tennis wasn't played on clay all year, you could well bet your bottom dollar Coria would have been a cobbler for a living - that's how much I rate him outside clay and I remain convinced Federer would still take this in straight sets even if he had to play with his left hand and stand on one leg... Enough said! Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 105.50pts Profit/Loss : 5.50pts (In case anyone out there's following my staking plan, the stake here - set aside for match betting - does not reflect the one I had on Federer to win the tourny as the scale of that is much more sizable than what I have here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November LJUBICIC 2-0 v Nalbandian @ 2.24 Pinnacle 2.42pts Most of the UK based books are going close to even money on this which I feel is a fair price. After his two matches thus far, I simply cannot see Super Ljub dropping serve in this one. Nalbandian has been playing alright, but nothing more than that. It was clear Federer was a lot better against Ljubicic than against Nalbandian, where his movement, or should I say willingness to move flat out, was sometimes in doubt. Nalbandian then beat Coria, but both sets were pretty tight when the way Coria is playing Nalbandian should have destroyed him. I know Nalbandian took Ljubicic to 3 sets not too long ago, but I still think this is close enough to a 50/50 shot to be worth a go. Note, I would have taken straight up but I mentioned the 1.478 when the market opened at Pinnacle yesterday (which I should have took) but know the best available is 1.40 - this is OKish to take, as I think he has a very good chance, but I said a few days ago he should be 1.44 and it would have to be above that for me to play. (rambling:$ ) Federer v Coria UNDER 20.5 games @ 1.66 Bet365 4.54pts Oh dear, a handicap. What am I doing? I think this number too high, as it allows for a 6-4 6-4 victory. Fed has taken care of Coria twice on clay, but this is a different game. Coria can't serve, he's not serving badly, he cannot serve. I don't see him being able to hold serve very often and this should be a rampage by Federer. We know Corias dodgy mentality, and as he can't qualify, I really don't think he can be arsed with this (even with the large amount of $$$ available. The only concern here is Fed not giving a **** either. Well there is a chance of that, but he's a winner and I think he has a thing about winning streaks - hasn't lost since Nadal at RG, since then has won 33 consecutive matches:eek , so he should still be up for this. Even if he isn't, still a very very small chance of Coria winning in less than 20.5 games:unsure . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Ljubicic dropped serve in first game now - pretty terrible start - still hoping he breaks back though for your 2-0 bet!:notworthy LJUBICIC 2-0 v Nalbandian @ 2.24 Pinnacle 2.42pts Most of the UK based books are going close to even money on this which I feel is a fair price. After his two matches thus far, I simply cannot see Super Ljub dropping serve in this one. Nalbandian has been playing alright, but nothing more than that. It was clear Federer was a lot better against Ljubicic than against Nalbandian, where his movement, or should I say willingness to move flat out, was sometimes in doubt. Nalbandian then beat Coria, but both sets were pretty tight when the way Coria is playing Nalbandian should have destroyed him. I know Nalbandian took Ljubicic to 3 sets not too long ago, but I still think this is close enough to a 50/50 shot to be worth a go. Note, I would have taken straight up but I mentioned the 1.478 when the market opened at Pinnacle yesterday (which I should have took) but know the best available is 1.40 - this is OKish to take, as I think he has a very good chance, but I said a few days ago he should be 1.44 and it would have to be above that for me to play. (rambling:$ ) Federer v Coria UNDER 20.5 games @ 1.66 Bet365 4.54pts Oh dear, a handicap. What am I doing? I think this number too high, as it allows for a 6-4 6-4 victory. Fed has taken care of Coria twice on clay, but this is a different game. Coria can't serve, he's not serving badly, he cannot serve. I don't see him being able to hold serve very often and this should be a rampage by Federer. We know Corias dodgy mentality, and as he can't qualify, I really don't think he can be arsed with this (even with the large amount of $$$ available. The only concern here is Fed not giving a **** either. Well there is a chance of that, but he's a winner and I think he has a thing about winning streaks - hasn't lost since Nadal at RG, since then has won 33 consecutive matches:eek , so he should still be up for this. Even if he isn't, still a very very small chance of Coria winning in less than 20.5 games:unsure . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Just what the fcuk is this Croat bastard playing at? He's on the verge of losing the first set 6-0 as I write - this tosser never obliges whenever I'm on him! Fcuking cnut... :@ :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Does not make any points on second serve - horrible :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November This cnut should be fined for putting up such a below-par performance - he's not even bloody trying! :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Does not make any points on second serve - horrible :@ Besides being mentally very weak, that's what Ivanisevic's success at Wimbledon back in 2001 does to a whole new generation of Croats - producing big servers who are just totally useless at everything else(from Ljubicic to Karlovic). :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November This is crazy:puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Federer v Coria UNDER 20.5 games @ 1.66 Bet365 4.54pts 21 games:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Besides being mentally very weak' date=' that's what Ivanisevic's success at Wimbledon back in 2001 does to a whole new generation of Croats - producing big servers who are just totally useless at everything else(from Ljubicic to Karlovic). :lol[/quote'] The funny thing still is that Karlovic is always rated much lower by the bookies than Ljubicic - although I think if he serves at his best he can beat almost anyone - If he just had an return game :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Come on guys, Ljubicic has a lot more 'game' on return and from the back than Karlovic. Well, off Ljubicic goes to the Davis Cup final. Would you like to meet the Croatian Davis Cup squad in a dark alley? Or for that matter, a fast indoor court in Bratislava?;) I think Ljubicic is the midget of the team - 6'4" after a cold shower:loon Will Federer drop the middle set in every match on his way to the title? That would be weird:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November :clap Just saw this in my nordicbet account: 14-11-2005 06:00Winner Gold GroupNikolay DavydenkoNikolay Davydenko15.00Won Well, and my limits are going down even further (200 Euros win limit :wall ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Well, that's maybe true ;) I am just a bit thrown into grief! I have backed him several times this year, and here is a list what I ended up with: To Win Doha Open @ 20 - Final lost to Federer To Win Aus. Open @ 320 - 2nd round to Baghdatis To Win Open 13 Marseille @ 18 - Final lost to Joachim Johansson (will he be back anywhen??) To Win ABN Amro Open @30 - Final lost to Federer To Win Dubai Open @12 - Final lost to Federer To Win Wimbledon @141 - First round To Win French Open @251 - First round To Win US Open @126 - 3rd round To Win Telecom Masters Roma @101 - 3rd round To Win Masters Hamburg @51 - 2nd rnd To Win 10Tele.com Open @9 - 2nd rnd lost to Karlovic ... Talking about burning money, eh? I guess he won exactly the tournaments I did not back him :cry Come on guys, Ljubicic has a lot more 'game' on return and from the back than Karlovic. Well, off Ljubicic goes to the Davis Cup final. Would you like to meet the Croatian Davis Cup squad in a dark alley? Or for that matter, a fast indoor court in Bratislava?;) I think Ljubicic is the midget of the team - 6'4" after a cold shower:loon Will Federer drop the middle set in every match on his way to the title? That would be weird:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Come on guys, Ljubicic has a lot more 'game' on return and from the back than Karlovic. Well, off Ljubicic goes to the Davis Cup final. Would you like to meet the Croatian Davis Cup squad in a dark alley? Or for that matter, a fast indoor court in Bratislava?;) I think Ljubicic is the midget of the team - 6'4" after a cold shower:loon Will Federer drop the middle set in every match on his way to the title? That would be weird:unsureI think the commentator did mention a very pertinent point during the Ljubicic match which just backs up what I said a couple of weeks ago - this guy is mentally very weak(even worse than Dementieva IMO). The fact that he's never gotten to the 4th Round of any Grand Slam since '99(when he started playing in them) says something for me. Trust me, I'd much rather coach Karlovic than Ljubicic - with the exception of clay(and I hardly consider Ljubicic a decent player on that dirt to begin with), Karlovic will have the beating of just about anyone(well, bar the Great One of course) on a good day. In fact, I think it's the existence of the Karlovic, Ljubicic and Mirnyis of this world that help people appreciate just how good a player Roddick is(he not only has a big serve, but also a very good all-round game - especially his forehand during rallies - by most standards) on all surfaces bar clay. Can't believe this flop of a Croat came in as the 3rd favourite for the tourny - for God's sake, the day he wins a Grand Slam/Masters Cup is the day Henman will win Wimbledon... As for Federer, it's nothing new - let's hope some mugs out there overreact to his 'less-than-impressive' form so far and somehow drive his odds to win the tourny back to the 1.50 level! :lol I think Fed is just bored sometimes - he needs to drop a set to buy more game time... :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November And surely 2-1 set bets yield much more profit than straight sets for him :ok Well, I wish this tournament was covered on TV here which it is not - but that dumb women's one was:@ So can't really judge about Federer's performances in this tourney. And finally someone agrees with me about Karlovic :tongue2 who is on a side note 1-0 in h2h vs Ljubicic, having beaten him on grass this year. I think the commentator did mention a very pertinent point during the Ljubicic match which just backs up what I said a couple of weeks ago - this guy is mentally very weak(even worse than Dementieva IMO). The fact that he's never gotten to the 4th Round of any Grand Slam since '99(when he started playing in them) says something for me. Trust me, I'd much rather coach Karlovic than Ljubicic - with the exception of clay(and I hardly consider Ljubicic a decent player on that dirt to begin with), Karlovic will have the beating of just about anyone(well, bar the Great One of course) on a good day. In fact, I think it's the existence of the Karlovic, Ljubicic and Mirnyis of this world that help people appreciate just how good a player Roddick is(he not only has a big serve, but also a very good all-round game - especially his forehand during rallies - by most standards) on all surfaces bar clay. Can't believe this flop of a Croat came in as the 3rd favourite for the tourny - for God's sake, the day he wins a Grand Slam/Masters Cup is the day Henman will win Wimbledon... As for Federer, it's nothing new - let's hope some mugs out there overreact to his 'less-than-impressive' form so far and somehow drive his odds to win the tourny back to the 1.50 level! :lol I think Fed is just bored sometimes - he needs to drop a set to buy more game time... :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November I think a few people are being harsh on Ljub today, talking out of pockets. Things didnt go well for him but Nalbandian was absolutely brilliant today, even he said it was the best he had played for a good few years and no matter how well Ivan played David was not going to be beaten on that form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November To Win Open 13 Marseille @ 18 - Final lost to Joachim Johansson (will he be back anywhen??) Shoulder surgery on 25th July - out for at least 8 months:unsure I think a few people are being harsh on Ljub today, talking out of pockets. Things didnt go well for him but Nalbandian was absolutely brilliant today, even he said it was the best he had played for a good few years and no matter how well Ivan played David was not going to be beaten on that form. I don't like Nalbandian at the moment. He's ****ed around losing to Haas/Baghdatis etc lately then plays like he did today:eyes. I'm going to end up backing him against Davy:hope. To Win Doha Open @ 20 - Final lost to Federer To Win Aus. Open @ 320 - 2nd round to Baghdatis To Win Open 13 Marseille @ 18 - Final lost to Joachim Johansson (will he be back anywhen??) To Win ABN Amro Open @30 - Final lost to Federer To Win Dubai Open @12 - Final lost to Federer To Win Wimbledon @141 - First round To Win French Open @251 - First round To Win US Open @126 - 3rd round To Win Telecom Masters Roma @101 - 3rd round To Win Masters Hamburg @51 - 2nd rnd To Win 10Tele.com Open @9 - 2nd rnd lost to Karlovic Backing Ljubicic in Grand Slams AND on clay:eek:eek. If you look at hard and indoor in non GS tourneys you should have done alright: To Win Doha Open @ 20 - Final lost to Federer To Win Open 13 Marseille @ 18 - Final lost to Joachim Johansson To Win ABN Amro Open @30 - Final lost to Federer To Win Dubai Open @12 - Final lost to Federer To Win 10Tele.com Open @9 - 2nd rnd lost to Karlovic All at good prices:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Backed him on clay only because I had faith in his superb form then - surely risky:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Backed him on clay only because I had faith in his superb form then - surely risky:dude That's fair enough as they were all large prices, but very scary on clay:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Was thinking on Gonzalez at 1.45ish tomorrow against Gaudio. Gonzalez looked pretty decent against Puerta although he had a blip (a very common blip) in the second set. Gaudio was pants against Davydenko. I think Gonzalez matches up pretty well here as he should be able to thump Gaudio around a bit and get a lot better results from his serve. However this H2H really put me off: 2005 World Team Championship, Clay, RR Dusseldorf, Germany Clay RR Gaudio 6 4 6 2 2005 Vina del Mar, Clay, F Chile Clay F Gaudio 6 3 6 4 2002 Indian Wells TMS, Hard, R32 California, USA Hard R32 Gaudio 6 2 7 5 Not only because it is 3-0 to Gaudio but look at where they took place. Indian Wells, wells, it's a hard court and Gonzalez should have Gaudios number on there, especially a few years ago when Gaudio was terrible on anything other than clay. Then in Vina del Mar with Gonzalez at home with a hell of a lot of support. Then in the World Team Championship, Chile (Gonzalez + Massu) won that in 2004 and were defending there title. They also rocked at the Olympics and certainly formed a great team. The Argentinians were in a bit of a mess with Coria refusing to play a match cos he wanted rest for the French Open. I remember being on Gonzalez in that one at around 2.20 but he was totally outplayed. In all of the matches Gaudio was able to put so many balls back and force wild errors from Gonzalez. He appears to have calmed down a little of late, and the surface should help him a lot, but will it be enough? Any thoughts guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November I don't like Nalbandian at the moment. He's ****ed around losing to Haas/Baghdatis etc lately then plays like he did today:eyes. I'm going to end up backing him against Davy:hope. I've said all along Bandy is a solid player - in the mould of the T Johanssons and Davydenkos(when he's not in the mood to throw matches, that is) - with no real strengths and weaknesses. Basically, these players are both prone to losing to mediocre players who are in a rich vein of form(think Ferrer and Ljubicic at certain times this year), yet well capable of beating the same lot on another day - and that's what makes betting on matches involving these players so tough sometimes because you simply don't know which opponent will turn up(these are the sort of games where I'd have to go with form, rather than class, if I were betting). And finally someone agrees with me about Karlovic who is on a side note 1-0 in h2h vs Ljubicic, having beaten him on grass this year. In all fairness, Karlovic's rallying isn't that bad so long as you aren't comparing him with players in the top 20 :lol . But I think it says something about him considering he holds a 2-0 lead over Hewitt(now, we could talk all day about grass favouring him, but I think it's easy to get carried away and forget the fact Hewitt became the first defending champ at Wimbledon to get knocked out in the first round in the Open era) and trails Roddick 1-2 in his career h2h's with them, which clearly suggests he's well capable of beating anyone - and I mean anyone bar Federer - on his day on any surface besides clay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Was thinking on Gonzalez at 1.45ish tomorrow against Gaudio. Gonzalez looked pretty decent against Puerta although he had a blip (a very common blip) in the second set. Gaudio was pants against Davydenko. I think Gonzalez matches up pretty well here as he should be able to thump Gaudio around a bit and get a lot better results from his serve. However this H2H really put me off: 2005 World Team Championship, Clay, RR Dusseldorf, Germany Clay RR Gaudio 6 4 6 2 2005 Vina del Mar, Clay, F Chile Clay F Gaudio 6 3 6 4 2002 Indian Wells TMS, Hard, R32 California, USA Hard R32 Gaudio 6 2 7 5 Not only because it is 3-0 to Gaudio but look at where they took place. Indian Wells, wells, it's a hard court and Gonzalez should have Gaudios number on there, especially a few years ago when Gaudio was terrible on anything other than clay. Then in Vina del Mar with Gonzalez at home with a hell of a lot of support. Then in the World Team Championship, Chile (Gonzalez + Massu) won that in 2004 and were defending there title. They also rocked at the Olympics and certainly formed a great team. The Argentinians were in a bit of a mess with Coria refusing to play a match cos he wanted rest for the French Open. I remember being on Gonzalez in that one at around 2.20 but he was totally outplayed. In all of the matches Gaudio was able to put so many balls back and force wild errors from Gonzalez. He appears to have calmed down a little of late, and the surface should help him a lot, but will it be enough? Any thoughts guys? Gaudio will take this one IMO - only concern is Gaudio has a knack of throwing in the towel if things are not going his way. Nevertheless, I'd back him on the basis of what I've seen this week - against Puerta, he showed glimpses of what made him the French Open champ last year and in truth, he didn't do too badly against Davydenko as it was more a case of Davydenko doing what he does best(basically, Gaudio couldn't find a chink in Davydenko's solid gameplan). In the Puerta-Gonzalez affair, Gonzalez was mediocre in the first set, but Puerta was worse(very much a re-run of the Nalbandian-Coria affair where Bandy scraped through simply because he sucked less than Coria). Gonzalez was truly awful in the second set against Puerta and I'd hardly want to read too much into the 3rd set knowing Puerta gave up the moment he was broken - clearly, nothing to suggest he has the edge over Gaudio IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November Yeah it was very clear that Puerta gave up:unsure. I'm thinking that the last time they played, Gaudio was able to use his (great) backhand very effectively to keep away from the Gonzo forehand - at least make Gonzo hit forehands from stupid positions. Mmm, Gonzo is shortening slightly - I'm going to wait till morning and see the price then - I could swing either way:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November I've been tempted. Just over 3 is enough to have another go on Gaudio. GAUDIO v Gonzalez @ 3.02 Pinnacle 1.49pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November After a shocking first set, and half a shocking second set, Gaudio makes it to a set all (1-6 7-5). Vamos Gaston! Do it for Argentina:loon Who goes mental first? 1/2 Gonzalez, 11/10 Gaudio - I'm so tight:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November GAUDIO v Gonzalez @ 3.02 Pinnacle 1.49pts :D WON profit 3pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November The last time Gaudio reached the semi final of a tournament not on clay was in January 2000:eek:eek when he reached the semis of Auckland (losing to M Norman) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Tennis Masters Cup 13-20 November GAUDIO v Gonzalez @ 3.02 Pinnacle 1.49pts :D WON profit 3pts Great shout there Mr I :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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