Bedlam Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 This system involves teams that are usually a bettors nightmare, capable of beating a top 3 side away one week, but then lose at home to a bottom 3 team the next. I intend to use this unpredictability to my advantage ie they are impossible for the bookies to price up. I will lay the favourite result in each of thier matches on Betfair. There has been no paper or back-testing, just my experience from being a life long Man City fan! The teams I will use are all set up well for thier away matches by good coaches: but lack that cruicial ingredient: consistancy. Blackburn Fulham Man City (of course!) Middlesborough Leeds Preston When I first mooted the idea of this system, I intended to use Spurs. But after all the money they've spent & all thier attacking options, I feel they will probobly be more consistant now esecially at home. I may just use thier away matches in future as they are always capable of scoring goals against anyone. starting bank 100pts level laying stakes of 5pts Liverpool v Blackburn. Lay Liverpool [email protected] Middlesbro' v Pompey. Lay M'boro [email protected] Man City v West Ham. Lay City [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Charlton v Fulham lay Charlton [email protected] All odds stated have been matched at Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables ...There has been no paper or back-testing' date=' ...[/quote'] Well, I have to ask, why don't you back-test this idea, instead of going live? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables I included Leeds & Preston in the initial list, but didn't realise that Leeds kicked off early today. So for now I'll stick with the Premiership quartet.(it's always adjustable!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Hello Mr Onemore, I just feel that because the system relies on the unpredictability of the teams involved at this moment in time, past results may have little relevence to the teams involved now, apart from to observe that M'boro thumped Birmingham 3-0 at St Andrews & then lost at home to Sunderland. Man City were unbeaten at Highbury, Stamford Bridge & Old Trafford last season, but lost to Oldham & WBA! & who would have predicted Blackburn winning at Old Trafford? Clear as mud? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables starting bank 100pts level laying stakes of 5pts Liverpool v Blackburn. Lay Liverpool [email protected]:( Middlesbro' v Pompey. Lay M'boro [email protected]:clap Man City v West Ham. Lay City [email protected]:( Liverpool v Blackburn Lost (3.8pts) Middlesbro' v Pompey Won 4.76pts Man City v West Ham Lost (4.8pts) Not looking too brilliant for the first weekend, though I've seen enough to be greatly encouraged that this system can work. Just waiting for the Charlton result, but kicking myself to have missed out on Leeds & Preston, who were on my initial list:( Otherwise I'd be looking at a healthy profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Nice one on Charlton :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Charlton v Fulham lay Charlton [email protected]:clap Charlton v Fulham won 4.76 pts (commision deducted) Paid out 8.6 pts Won 9.52 pts profit/loss 0.92 (oh well, better than a loss!) Current Bank 100.92 pts Big Oaks from little acorns grow!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables I've decided to add Watford to 'The Unpredictables' after thier last couple of results. So for Tuesday we have; Cardiff v Preston lay Cardiff [email protected] Leeds v Southampton lay Leeds [email protected] Sheff Wed v Watford lay Sheff Wed [email protected] (All odds matched on betfair) This is a big test for the system 'early doors' as the favourite results are all greater than evens,which in some respects is good news as the Unpredictables appear to be just that to the bookies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Bedlam, just to be clear, Do you want "level stakes" or "fixed profit stakes", ( you are currently using "fixed profit staking" ) Since this is a Lay system for "level staking" you need to keep the liability at the same level, not the amount you put in. That is your potential profit, not your stake. Just asking because it is often switched around with Laying systems. and good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Bedlam, just to be clear, Do you want "level stakes" or "fixed profit stakes", ( you are currently using "fixed profit staking" ) Since this is a Lay system for "level staking" you need to keep the liability at the same level, not the amount you put in. That is your potential profit, not your stake. Just asking because it is often switched around with Laying systems. and good luck :okHello Datapunter, I have deliberately gone with "fixed profit" purely for ease of operation in getting the odds matched quickly, not being a mathematician like your good self & having no access to the internet whilst at work during the day, but may change at some point when I've found my feet, as "level stakes" make the liability controlable. Though in laying the favourite result in every match, hopefully my bank won't take too many ' big hits'. I realise though that working out 'yield' is much more difficult with my current staking!:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Cardiff v Preston lay Cardiff [email protected] :clap Leeds v Southampton lay Leeds [email protected] :( Sheff Wed v Watford lay Sheff Wed [email protected] :clap (All odds matched on betfair) This is a big test for the system 'early doors' as the favourite results are all greater than evens,which in some respects is good news as the Unpredictables appear to be just that to the bookies.Not a bad start: Starting Bank 100 pts Current Bank 103.84 pts Total Staked 37.1 Total bets 7 Winning Bets 4 Losing Bets 3 Strike Rate 57.4% Yield 10.35% as this is a 'lay system' for 'total staked' I have taken the potential pay out for each bet in the event of losing. (I'm sure someone will let me know if this is the wrong way to do it!) Next Bet: Friday Night. Sheff Utd v Leeds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Friday Night: Leeds v Sheffield Utd. Lay Leeds [email protected] (matched on Betfair ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Like the lay of Leeds. Good luck with this, you're a brave soul! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables cheers Davidmphill (didn't know how to abreviate that!) I quite fancy the lay of Arsenal coming up on Saturday too!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 21, 2005 Author Share Posted October 21, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Friday Night: Leeds v Sheffield Utd. Lay Leeds [email protected] :nana Won 4.76 pts (commision deducted) Good start to the weekend. It's always nice to get a winner under your belt early doors! Current Bank 108.56 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 21, 2005 Author Share Posted October 21, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Saturdays Bets Arsenal v Man City Lay Arsenal [email protected] Blackburn v Birmingham Lay Blackburn [email protected] Fulham v Liverpool Lay Liverpool [email protected] Ipswich v Watford Lay Ipswich [email protected] Wolves v Preston Lay Wolves [email protected] Sunday West Ham v Middlesbro' Lay West Ham [email protected] All odds have been matched on Betfair at vrious times since Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 23, 2005 Author Share Posted October 23, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Saturdays Bets Arsenal v Man City Lay Arsenal [email protected]:( lost (2.75pts) Blackburn v Birmingham Lay Blackburn [email protected]:( lost (5.7pts) Fulham v Liverpool Lay Liverpool [email protected]:clap won 4.76pts Ipswich v Watford Lay Ipswich [email protected]:clap won 4.76pts Wolves v Preston Lay Wolves [email protected]:clap won 4.76pts Sunday West Ham v Middlesbro' Lay West Ham [email protected]:( lost (7.75pts) All odds have been matched on Betfair at vrious times since Wednesday.[/quote Starting Bank 100.00 pts Current Bank 106.63 pts Profit/loss 6.63 pts Total Bets 14 Winning Bets 8 Losing Bets 6 Strike Rate 57.14% Yield 8.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hindi Posted October 24, 2005 Share Posted October 24, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables wasnt boro on your list too , did they got out of it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 24, 2005 Author Share Posted October 24, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Boro are still there Hindi, on the post before yours under 'Sunday'. Unfortunately, the favourite result won in that match, due to a 'goal' that shouldn't have been.:wall otherwise the system would be showing a much more impressive profit. Boro & I were robbed!:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Carling Cup, Tuesday Blackburn v Leeds lay Blackburn [email protected] Fulham v West Brom lay Fulham [email protected] Wigan v Watford lay Wigan [email protected] Wednesday Everton v Middlesbro' lay Everton [email protected] All prices matched at Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 27, 2005 Author Share Posted October 27, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Carling Cup' date= Tuesday Blackburn v Leeds lay Blackburn [email protected]:( lost (3.35pts) Fulham v West Brom lay Fulham [email protected]:clap won 4.76pts Wigan v Watford lay Wigan [email protected]:clap won 4.76pts Wednesday Everton v Middlesbro' lay Everton [email protected]:clap won 4.76pts All prices matched at Betfair.A good mid-week Carling Cup campaign! Starting Bank 100.00pts Previous Bank 106.63pts Current Bank 117.56 will update fully after this weekends' matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 27, 2005 Author Share Posted October 27, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables This is a very tricky weekend for 'The Unpredictables' as some of them face some very difficult matches, coupled to the fact that because I'm going away for the weekend tomorrow,because of time constraints, I have had to lay for larger odds than I am happy with. Oh well, here we go..... Saturday Chelsea v Blackburn lay Chelsea [email protected] Middlesbro' v Man Utd lay Man U [email protected] Wigan v Fulham lay Wigan [email protected] Reading v Leeds lay Reading [email protected] Preston v Leicester lay Preston [email protected] Monday Man City v Aston Villa lay City [email protected] all odds matched on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 27, 2005 Author Share Posted October 27, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Watford v Wolves lay Watford [email protected] Oh God, that looks good value to me! If I wasn't going away for the weekend, I'd wait as I think the odds will come in before kick-off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted October 28, 2005 Share Posted October 28, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Nice idea Bedlam, and going well so far :ok. Are your team choices purely subjective, or have you a devious mathematical forumla that determines whether a team is truly unpredictable? Might go away and think about that one .... Have you thought about adding Peterborough? From personal experience, they are a betting nightmare! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 30, 2005 Author Share Posted October 30, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Hello Sgt.Sunshine, I'd like to claim a devious mathematical formula for selecting 'the unpredictables', but it's just a case of labouriously studying results (& subsequent results of opponents). Thanks for the tip of Peterborough, I'm currently looking to expand the Stable with teams from the bottom 2 divisions & will have a close look at 'Posh':ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 31, 2005 Author Share Posted October 31, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Results from the latest round of matches: Saturday Chelsea v Blackburn lay Chelsea [email protected]:( lost (1.4pts) Middlesbro' v Man Utd lay Man U [email protected]:nanawon 4.76pts Wigan v Fulham lay Wigan [email protected]:( lost (6.5pts) Reading v Leeds lay Reading [email protected]:nana won 4.76pts Preston v Leicester lay Preston [email protected]:nanawon 4.76pts Monday Man City v Aston Villa lay City [email protected]:( lost (4.8pts) all odds matched on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 31, 2005 Author Share Posted October 31, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Watford v Wolves lay Watford [email protected]:( lost(9pts) Oh God, that looks good value to me! If I wasn't going away for the weekend, I'd wait as I think the odds will come in before kick-off.This particular result was a bit of a blow, as I fancied Watford to win but because of the nature of the system it was important that I remained disciplined & go with the system, as other matches that I thought would be losers have come through for me. e.g. I was also convinced that Reading would beat Leeds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted October 31, 2005 Author Share Posted October 31, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Start Bank 100.00pts Current Bank 110.14pts profit/loss 10.14pts Total Bets 25 Won 14 Lost 11 Ratio 56% Total Staked 137.58pts Yield 7.37% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 Re: The Unpredictables Championship, Tuesday Crewe v Leeds lay Leeds [email protected] Preston v Hull lay Preston [email protected] Watford v QPR lay Watford [email protected] all odds matched with Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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