ELO Ratings | What are they? | How do they work?

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The ELO Ratings for Football were developed in 2017 and have been on the website ever since. Many members on the forum use these and we also get people on socials complaining when they're down, so we know they're often used. However, how exactly do they work? How can you trust or test these numbers when you don't know how they're formulated? I'll try to explain.

https://www.punterslounge.com/football/elo-ratings/

These ratings were created by Sir Puntalot, before he passed away. He wanted a way to see "at a glance" the type of performance a team was giving out recently. As opposed to teams just "winning or losing". We've all seen a match where a team gets an early goal and defends for 90 minutes. These ratings were designed with that in mind so that you'd see the "performance" as opposed to the scorelines.

The ratings are like reading match reports of each team over the last 2 to 4 matches, both home and away. However, it's without the hassle of having to do that. 

First, let's look at the results of recent matches as an example. Under "performance" 

Firstly, GREEN is HOME and RED is AWAY teams. So based on the scoring system of these 4 matches, Everton had a small advantage in the match at West Ham that finished 0-0 and Arsenal had a small advantage in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea. However, they are so close with just 1.00 and 2.00 respectively.

Man City and Spurs BOTH somehow lost the match despite having bigger advantages based on the scoring system. So what we're saying here is when you see the diamond on the performances it can give you an idea of how the result probably didn't match the level of performances. 

The scoring system :
Here is how the scores are calculated 👇🏻

Home Team
Shot on Target - 4pts
Shot off Target - 1pt
Corner - 1pt
Goals Scored - 5pts
Goals Conceded - -4pts

Away Team
Shot on Target - 5pts
Shot off Target - 1pt
Corner - 1pt
Goals Scored - 6pts
Goals Conceded - -3pts

 

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This is all fine, but what we want, is to PREDICT what's going to happen based on these performance markers, and that's where the "Prediction" section comes in.

You're covered with the Prem through to League 2, The Scottish Prem and the top leagues, in Europe (French, Spanish, Italian & German).

All the UEFA competitions are covered and we even have the likes of the MLS, Australian A-League & Brazil Serie A.

Let's take a look at the coming weekend, in the Premier League.

As you can see, we have the points attained by each team, in the last 2 & 4 fixtures. If you look at Leicester, you'll see 15.75 and 13.00. These are the points scored from their last 2/4 HOME matches and of course, the same with Chelsea. 32.50 and 25.50 are the scores of their last 2/4 AWAY matches. Once we have this total, we can then get an average of both and see if there is a big "difference" between the two

You can see that the difference has come out as 16.75 / 12.50 in favour of the away team. It has to be up to you what "cut-off number" would make it a bet, for you, but I would suggest that this kind of dominance would suggest a bet on Chelsea.

I have a thread up to test the ELO Ratings 

Hope this helps

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