The Breeders Cup- Del Mar 2024

[Zilzalian]

These are the only Breeders cups to be run at Del Mar. The draw looks Unbiased to these eyes but if @harry_rag wants have a peek he may come to a different conclusion, nowt like a bit o analysis.

[harry_rag]

18 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

The draw looks Unbiased to these eyes but if @harry_rag wants have a peek he may come to a different conclusion, nowt like a bit o analysis.

Check this out!

Stall	1st	2nd	3rd	Total	Points	TI	PI
1	4	3	2	9	295	161.5	186.9
11	2	2	4	8	190	143.6	120.4
5	4	1	2	7	245	125.6	155.2
6	4	2	1	7	260	125.6	164.7
2	0	4	2	6	120	107.7	76.0
4	2	3	1	6	185	107.7	117.2
7	1	2	3	6	130	107.7	82.4
8	2	1	3	6	155	107.7	98.2
3	2	1	2	5	145	89.7	91.9
10	2	2	1	5	160	89.7	101.4
9	1	1	2	4	95	71.8	60.2
12	2	2	0	4	150	71.8	95.0
14	0	2	1	3	60	53.8	38.0
13	0	0	2	2	20	35.9	12.7
Ave	1.86	1.86	1.86	5.57	157.86

The obvious flaw with this data is that it doesn't reflect how many runners there are in each race. Stalls 12-14 look poor but if there were only 4 runners from those stalls then... you take my point. That said, the strong showing for stall 11 stands out, assuming it's not just an anomaly. (Small sample size.) 61.5% of winners from stalls 1-6 and 51.3% of placed horses. Stalls 1, 5 and 6 obviously standing out.

In terms of the last 3 columns I've awarded 50 points for a winner then 25 and 10 for 2nd and 3rd then indexed them. So stall 1 is 61.5% better than average in terms of places and 86.9% better in terms of points scored.

Maybe cover the forecasts and tricasts on stalls 1, 11, 5 and 6!