Racing chat-saturday 19th October

[richard-westwood]

Sprint stakes ascot form and class 

Kinross.  466 692 total 1158

Montassib. 463 697 total 1160 

Kind of blue. 462 694 total 1156 

These three are a bit clear .....top 2 are completely at home on soft .....kind of blue would prefer fast ground so I'll oppose.     Top two for me at 11/2 and 6/1 .....5pt wins both 

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 1.20

The opener on Champions Day which will be run on testing ground is the 1M 7 1/2F Qipco Long Distance Cup in which we have the day’s shortest priced favourite in the shape of Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios. He’s unbeaten in six starts this season including the Ascot and Goodwood Gold Cups along with the Irish St Leger and Prix du Cadran. He handles bad ground and should be winning this as long as this race doesn’t come too soon after his exertions in Paris only a fortnight ago. I would be against most of the favourites today but I do think that Kyprios is a class apart and can’t look beyond him. Those who are looking for some each way value I would look no further than his stablemate The Euphrates who is only rated 6lb behind him on official ratings following his improved effort when winning the Irish Cesarewitch when upped in trip last time out. He is too big a price in the market and is worth a small stakes each way saver.

 

KYPRIOS 2 points win @ 4/5 Betfred

THE EUPRATES 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5 123

 

Ascot 1.55

The 6F Group 1 Qipco Sprint has attracted a maximum field of twenty and with a history of big priced winners it’s worth looking for some value. Karl Burke saddles three runners here and its his four-year-old Swingalong who is on my short list. A credible fourth last year he found himself isolated last time out at Haydock on the near side rail and I expect a big showing from him today. Kinross won this two years ago and was runner up last year but if you fancy him then surely its worth taking a chance on the French raider Beauvatier who was given far too much to do last time out in the Prix Forest over 7F coming home 3/4L behind Kinross and is a much bigger price. Only out of the frame once in his eleven race career when beating one home in the French 2000 Guineas he is the main value pick in an open looking sprint where a case can be made for many.

 

BEAUVATIER 1 point each way @ 16/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

SWINGALONG 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 2.35

A maximum field of fourteen run in the Group 1 Qipco Fillies & Mares Stakes. I have to be against the favourite Kalpana here as she has yet to encounter ground conditions as wet as she will this afternoon and has to be taken on. Two mud larks who look good each way value are Jessie Harrington’s Village Voice and the German raider Quantanamera. The latter looks excellent each way value on ground she obviously relishes. She impressed when a 4L winner from the useful mudlark Arrest in a Group 2 at Deauville in August and has been trained for this race since. Only 3lb behind the top rated Content in the race I’m expecting a big run from her.

 

QUANTANAMERA 1 point each way @ 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.15

The Group 1 1M Queen Elizabeth II Stakes has attracted a classy field of thirteen with the favourite and most likely winner being this year’s best older miler trained at Newmarket by Roger Varian, Charyn. He will be hard one to beat but has been priced accordingly and I’ll be looking for some each way value against him. Facteur Cheval is one of two French trained runners in the field and having finished a credible runner up to the impressive Big Rock in this last year appeals on his favoured ground as the best value bet. Trained by J Reynier he’s not had his favoured soft ground since this race last year but has run well in defeat in top company winning the Dubai Turf at Meydan in March and possibly finding the fast ground against him since.

 

FACTEUR CHEVAL 1 point each way @ 9/1 888sport 1/5th 123

 

Ascot 3.55

There’s £1,300,000 on the table for the finishing places in the Group 1 Qipco Champion Stakes run over 1M 2F and features arguably two of the four best middle distance horses in Europe in the Irish Champion Stakes victor Economics and Juddmonte International Stakes at York runner up Calandagon. Preference is for the latter who we know will handle conditions well having won twice in the spring on heavy ground in France whilst Economics has yet to be tested on very soft ground. Calandagan went down by a length to City Of Troy last time out and is rated 2lb superior to Economics. The betting suggests it’s a two runner race with the third in being the Arc de Triomphe third Los Angeles who may not appreciate dropping back to 10F. A race to savour but it must be Calandagon for me.

 

CALANDAGAN 1 point win @ 13/8 BetVictor

 

Ascot 4.35

A maximum field of twenty spread across the starlight course run in the class 2 Balmoral Handicap which as usual looks wide open and with the last two winners being priced at 80/1 and 25/1 this looks a race to find a lively outsider. Step forward this year’s Lincoln winner Mr Professor who loves the mud and is now 5lb higher than that victory here. His two moderate runs since can be put down to the ground conditions as both of those efforts were run on fast ground. He’s left Dominic Ffrench-Davis and joined Raphael Freire and appeals at a big price each way with additional places. The other horse I like is at the head of the market in the shape of the Irish challenger State Actor who is already a winner on heavy ground in his six race career and went down by a head in the Irish Cambridgeshire last time out when well backed. Chris Hayes takes the ride and like the each way pick Mr Professor is drawn on the far side which seemed to be an advantage in the race last year on similarly soft ground.

 

MR PROFESSOR 1 point each way @ 25/1bet365 1/5th 12345

STATE ACTOR 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345