Racing chat -thurs 11th July

[richard-westwood]

3.00 Newmarket 

Woodhay wonder. 8.8 6/1 

Sergeant wilko 8.6 16/1 

Dark vintage.   8.2 

Dorny lake  8.2 

Good prices on top 2 .....5pt Ew top two 

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.50

With the defection of Kinesiology we have just four runners in the first of just four races covered by the ITV cameras in the Group 3 1M 5F Bahrain Trophy Stakes for three year olds only. The warm favourite and most likely winner is the Godolphin colt Ancient Wisdom who will love the soft ground having won twice in the mud last autumn. This season started with a respectable second spot in the Dante at York behind Economics before a very disappointing eighth of 16 in the Epsom Derby when stepped up in trip. On official ratings he’s rated 6lb and more better than his three rivals and anything over Evens looks worth a bet. Space Legend had Royal Supremacy just under 2L behind when runner up in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and having won his maiden earlier in the season on soft ground can confirm that form and chase home Ancient Wisdom.

 

ANCIENT WISDOM 2 points win @ 11/10 bet365

 

ANCIENT WISDOM & HAMISH 1 point win double 11/10 & 6/5 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 2.25

Another small field of just six have declared for the Group 2 July Stakes run over 6F for two year old colts and geldings. The only horse in the race who has encountered soft ground is the Aidan O’Brien trained favourite Whistlejacket. He was reportedly the O’Brien banker at Royal Ascot following an impressive listed win at The Curragh in May over 5F but was slightly disappointing when only fourth (beaten 1 1/4L) in the Norfolk Stakes when heavily backed going off a shade of odds on. Now upped in trip and back on softer ground he’s worth giving another chance to with Ryan Moore doing the steering. The other five all have to prove they can handle soft ground with potentially Kevin Ryan’s Windsor Castle winner at Royal Ascot Ain’t Nobody the biggest threat to the favourite.

 

WHISTLEJACK 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365

 

Newmarket 3.00

Easily the most competitive race of ITV’s quartet of races today is the sixteen runner three year old handicap run over 6F worth £100,000 guaranteed. There’s not too much soft ground form available but one horse that is proven on it is the Richard Fahey trained Tropical Island who won as a juvenile on soft and following a 245 day absence ran a highly promising sixth (beaten 4 1/2L) to James Delight (won listed race last weekend in France) in one of the best three year old sprint handicaps of the season at York last month. He travelled like a dream that day but weakened half a furlong out finishing 1 1/4L behind one of today’s favourites in Elmonjed. That was however his first run of the season and now one pound better off may turn the tables on his rival. He does have a tendency to start slowly so it’ll be fingers crossed when the gates open but he looks good each way value in an open handicap. Best outsider may turn out to be the Roger Varian trained Moswaat who has soft ground form as a juvenile and may outrun his odds.

 

TROPICAL ISLAND 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 3.35

Just the six run in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes over 1M 4F. The highest rated in the field is William Haggas’s Hamish who loves soft ground so the recent cloud bursts have been very much in his favour. He arguably ran his best ever race when a one length runner up in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom at the Derby meeting to Luxembourg and he’ll be a hard one to beat here. Harry Charlton’s Time Lock was behind the selection at Epsom and looks held whilst Yorkshire Cup winner Giavellotto has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for that victory and is dropping in trip. John & Thady Gosden’s Arrest looks the biggest threat to Hamish as he also appears to adore soft ground but was a tad disappointing at Chester last time.

 

HAMISH 2 points win @ 6/5 BetVictor