Racing Chat - Monday 20th May

[Hotspur88]

1810 Windsor Cat Ninja 5/2 1.5pt win

[Hotspur88]

1900 Carlisle So Grateful 11/1 1pt e/w (2pts total)

Going to stop writing 2pts total in brackets as I assume people know when I say 1pt e/w that means I'm staking 2pts 🤣

[black rabbit]

Watchya                                                             7 10 Wns/               1/40th of a pt ew      12/1

Lexington Knight                                              7 40 Wns/               1/40th of a pt ew      10/1     - 2nd

Toy Soldier                                                        5 40 Wns/               1/40th of a pt ew      28/1

Edited May 21 by black rabbit

[yossa6133]

Cat Ninja 6:10 Windsor (7/2 BOG general). Info horse for Hotspur on debut and showed plenty, taking a while to really settle but almost winning anyway. £20k race so will be competitive and the top 2 strong in the betting so will need to improve but extra furlong should help.

1pt win 7/2

She was in a funny old mood, but still got it done 😁

P/L: -11.1pts.

Edited May 20 by yossa6133

[Systemight]

No Joy from 2 Selections On Saturday...

Today's Selections:

15.13  Newton Abbot  Master Dancer  (9/4  Fred)

18.40  Windsor  Amazonian Dream  (2/1 Fred)

20.40  Windsor  Curtiz  (5/2 Vic)

Sel/Wins: 26/4  Strike:15.38% P/L: -14.16 Pts

[Le Doyen]

Red 3.00 Sneaky Girl 11/1

       4.00 Intercessor. 9/1

       5.00 Tantomile.   6/1

                     All e/w

[Systemight]

Free Bets how do i use them?.First of all i,m not saying this is the best way,just that it's the best way for me.

Well in the good old days i would take a £10 Freebie and use match betting techniques to guarantee about a £7 gain no matter what the result.Unfortunately doing that these days will very quickly get you Gubbed,so it's simply just not worth your time.

My Free bet was with Betfred so no Bog,and generally with free bets it's better to go for a mid-longer priced horse- whereas unfortunately a lot of punters usually try to back something short to secure a better chance of a win. 

My regular reader will know i put up three selections a day,but if i was to use my free bet on one of these selections-and it won!!-then i wouldn't really have gained anything as i would have backed that horse anyway.

All i would have done is simply gave away that free bet for nothing.If my selection that i backed with the freebie had lost-happy days-at least i would not have lost anything on the transaction.(hope this makes sense),so at least there is some benefit there

So having established(i hope) that i would only have gained a benefit if my horse had lost-that doesn't really stack up as the best way to play it.

Now on most days i only back three selections(that's as many as i want to go really) but often i pick out 5 or even 6 selections,but have to narrow it down to the final three which are the ones i bet.

When i have a free bet i back my 4th choice horse.To me that's more of a win/win situation.It's a horse i fancy,but wouldn't have backed,so why not use my free bet on it?.

If it wins great!! an unexpected bonus,if it loses..who cares i wouldn't normally have been backing it anyway.

So My free bet(4th choice horse) today has gone on 

15.00 Redcar  Millterries  (11/4 Fred)

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Systemight said:

My Free bet was with Betfred so no Bog,and generally with free bets it's better to go for a mid-longer priced horse- whereas unfortunately a lot of punters usually try to back something short to secure a better chance of a win. 

You are right, backing short price horses is not the best way to use free bets

Over the years I have generated about £14k from free bets so it is important to use them wisely

I have found the optimum price range is 13/2 to 10/1

[yossa6133]

The fav in the 2:13 Newton Abbot looks worth taking on with a penalty on faster ground. I've had a little nibble on the forecast 1. Fortified Fortune 2. Impecunious 3. Pirates Tale

 

0.3 pts tricast bet365 15.62/1

 

damn, thought it was going to land coming into the straight, but the fav battled on for 2nd.

*I say fav but they acually flip flopped*

 

P/L: -14.6

Edited May 20 by yossa6133

[harry_rag]

I think a lot of the stuff around how best to use free bets is more psychological than mathematical. I get the logic around why it feels better to back something you wouldn't otherwise have backed but I'm not sure it confers any advantage in terms of long term expected profit/loss. If you make more money using your freebie on your 4th choice selection than you would have done using it on your 3rd choice then you should start backing your 4th choice every day! I'm also wary of the notion of an optimum price range as I doubt that would be one size fits all. I think it's a lot easier to decide what feels like the best way to play them rather than work out what is the most advantageous mathematically. 

There's an argument for just using them on the next bet you were going to place anyway with the firm in question. Mainly, from my perspective, that's based on how many I manage to forget to use before they expire! 

For me I need to focus more on making sure they all get used. That would have a more positive impact on the bottom line than fretting too much about the optimum way of using them.

[MGC]

650 r Total Look 3/1

[yossa6133]

5 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Cat Ninja 6:10 Windsor (7/2 BOG general). Info horse for Hotspur on debut and showed plenty, taking a while to really settle but almost winning anyway. £20k race so will be competitive and the top 2 strong in the betting so will need to improve but extra furlong should help.

1pt win 7/2

 

P/L: -14.3pts.

Bet365 have Cat Ninja boosted to 4/1 at the moment.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

I think a lot of the stuff around how best to use free bets is more psychological than mathematical.

With respect I would argue it's all about the maths. 

If you had 10 free bets and backed at 1/1 you would expect 5 wins and return 5 points.

If you had 10 free bets and backed at 9/1 you would expect 1 win and return 9 points.

This ignores the longshot / favourite bias which is why I ended up with 13/2 - 10/1 being the optimum range.

I don't overthink it, I just look at a horse that's in the range and is best price on oddscheckers (this indicates some sort of value) and back that.

Over many years I've got back about 95% of my free bets, backing favourites at evens I would be lucky to get 50% back.

[Antonio Margarettii]

5.00 redcar - what times tea 16/1 ew

[Antonio Margarettii]

5.06 windsor - freds mate 14/1 WIN

Edited May 20 by Antonio Margarettii

[harry_rag]

36 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

With respect I would argue it's all about the maths. 

I take your point. As long as I've not got a significant edge at shorter prices and a big negative one at longer odds it makes sense. So, on that basis, if I'm backing an even money shot and a 9/1 shot it makes sense to always use the freebie to stake the longshot rather than as part of my larger stake on the shortie.

But is there any mathematical logic to using it on a 9/1 shot you were backing anyway versus one you wouldn't have backed otherwise or is that just a perception thing? (That you're getting more bang for you buck by having an extra bet?) I don't think it makes any difference in that respect, but I stand to be corrected again!  In fact, if we assume the 9/1 shots you choose to back are better than the ones you choose not to, it probably makes most sense to use the free bet on a 9/1 shot you'd be willing to back with real money wherever possible?

One thing we can probably all agree on is I'd be better sticking it on anything at all rather than (as had happened a few times of late) letting them expire!

[MCLARKE]

The ideal bet would be a system bet that is in my range and is best priced with the bookie that is offering the free bet. This doesn't happen very often though.

I think I'm better backing a random horse that is best priced at 9/1 rather than a system bet at 2/1 that is available at 5/2 elsewhere.

 

[azzybear]

highway sixty one 5.50 ew 

[harry_rag]

19 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think I'm better backing a random horse that is best priced at 9/1 rather than a system bet at 2/1 that is available at 5/2 elsewhere.

Yeah, from my quick calculation to test the logic, you're better off playing 9/1 shots with no edge compared to 2/1 shots with a 5% edge. Maybe a 10% edge on the latter and a -5% ROI on the former would wipe out the advantage. To be fair, I do usually try and use the freebies on a selection at a "worthwhile" price so I would want decent odds for a fiver stake. It's just the thing of missing the expiry while I'm waiting for a suitable candidate that I need to work on. I'm not exactly inundated with freebies these days!

I do also try and track where I'm earning or using a freebie so I can check the returns at some point.

[MCLARKE]

I think you would need a much bigger difference between edge and negative RIO.

In my earlier example I think you would need an 80% edge on the 1/1 selections to achieve the 9 points ?

[Zilzalian]

11 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Yeah, from my quick calculation to test the logic, you're better off playing 9/1 shots with no edge compared to 2/1 shots with a 5% edge. Maybe a 10% edge on the latter and a -5% ROI on the former would wipe out the advantage. To be fair, I do usually try and use the freebies on a selection at a "worthwhile" price so I would want decent odds for a fiver stake. It's just the thing of missing the expiry while I'm waiting for a suitable candidate that I need to work on. I'm not exactly inundated with freebies these days!

I do also try and track where I'm earning or using a freebie so I can check the returns at some point.

I pick my gg's for that day and i think about it for 2 seconds and bang it on my biggest priced GG. Win nowt lose nowt makes no diff to a freeby. Had a 66/1 and 3x33/1 and a few at lesser odds over the last 3/4 years. Must admit to a lot of losers though especially when 365 did the 4/1+ offer. You only need one winner to be in front on the freebies even if its evens.

[Hotspur88]

19 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

1810 Windsor Cat Ninja 5/2 1.5pt win

Cat Ninja wins 💥

5.25pts returned ✅️

[yossa6133]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Cat Ninja wins 💥

5.25pts returned ✅️

Not sure if using her tail as a propeller made her go faster or slower, but she's clearly pretty good 😁

[harry_rag]

45 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think you would need a much bigger difference between edge and negative RIO.

In my earlier example I think you would need an 80% edge on the 1/1 selections to achieve the 9 points ?

 I was working a more "real world" example where I was comparing using the fiver freebie as part of a £25 stake on a 2/1 shot to using it as all the stake on a 9/1 shot (assuming I was backing both selections anyway). Most people who have a fiver on at 9/1 would stake higher on an even money shot. I think @Zilzalian has hit the nail on the head, put it on the biggest priced selection that you're intending to back. The higher the odds the less gap there is between the return with or without the freebie.

It makes sense for you to favour a break even 9/1 shot over a value 2/1 selection for the reasons you've given.

I should do better than you if I can use it on a 9/1 shot that I deem to be value.

But it's advantage you again if I forget to use the bugger! 

I seem to have had 3 winning freebies this year, £1 on a 13/2 shot, £3 at 9/1 and a fiver towards the tenner stake on an e/w golf bet at 40s. I'm just going to see how much I won or lost on the bets that earned me the freebies! About £60 up on the "qualifiers" largely down to a big gee gees winner I nabbed off one of you lot on here!

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

 I was working a more "real world" example where I was comparing using the fiver freebie as part of a £25 stake on a 2/1 shot to using it as all the stake on a 9/1 shot (assuming I was backing both selections anyway). Most people who have a fiver on at 9/1 would stake higher on an even money shot. I think @Zilzalian has hit the nail on the head, put it on the biggest priced selection that you're intending to back. The higher the odds the less gap there is between the return with or without the freebie.

It makes sense for you to favour a break even 9/1 shot over a value 2/1 selection for the reasons you've given.

I should do better than you if I can use it on a 9/1 shot that I deem to be value.

But it's advantage you again if I forget to use the bugger! 

I seem to have had 3 winning freebies this year, £1 on a 13/2 shot, £3 at 9/1 and a fiver towards the tenner stake on an e/w golf bet at 40s. I'm just going to see how much I won or lost on the bets that earned me the freebies! About £60 up on the "qualifiers" largely down to a big gee gees winner I nabbed off one of you lot on here!

Haha, nothing to do with Freebies, but earlier I had a choice between Napping Amazonian Dream for a win with Oisin Murphy aboard at 2/1 or selecting Lil Guth ew at 4/1 with Will Buick aboard ew at 4/1.  WB had lost on his previous ride so I thought I had better value ew at 4/1 because if it won I would get a slightly better return on the ew bet and if it got placed, although, it would not be a winner at least my accumulated loss would not be dented too much.  Lil Guth came last at 7/2 and Amaozonian Dream won at 2/1.  Hence the horse with the assumed better probabilty of winning won anyway.  Loads of twistes and turns in betting theory Eh?

[Systemight]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

You are right, backing short price horses is not the best way to use free bets

Over the years I have generated about £14k from free bets so it is important to use them wisely

I have found the optimum price range is 13/2 to 10/1

Ah yes the good old days,

i did well too on the Bet 365 Channel 4  - 4/1 offer-can still hear Ray Winston advertising it...lol

Sadly these things don't last forever,the trader put pay to that..:(

When you lose that first account,it's like a badge of honour,but it quickly became irritating as one account closed after another.

365,Corals.Lads,PP,Hills,Betway, Betbright,Unibet and many many smaller ones ,the list was endless.What was really annoying was losing accounts at Betway, Cashmans,and Boylesport without even backing a SINGLE WINNER- pure madness!.

But it was losing that Bet 365 account which hurt the most..

[MCLARKE]

Yes, thank goodness for the exchanges, I'm not sure why everybody doesn't use them.

Excluding the offers, the overround on the exchanges is 2%, with the trad bookies it is 10% +

Yesterday's fantastic 36/1 winner for @black rabbit paid 93/1 on Betfair

[Hotspur88]

Cat Ninja wins nicely at 5/2 for a 5.25pt return and 3.75pt profit

So Grateful not placed therefore a 2pt loss

Overall for the day = +1.75pts

Running P/L = +9.65pts

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, nothing to do with Freebies, but earlier I had a choice between Napping Amazonian Dream for a win with Oisin Murphy aboard at 2/1 or selecting Lil Guth ew at 4/1 with Will Buick aboard ew at 4/1.  WB had lost on his previous ride so I thought I had better value ew at 4/1 because if it won I would get a slightly better return on the ew bet and if it got placed, although, it would not be a winner at least my accumulated loss would not be dented too much.  Lil Guth came last at 7/2 and Amaozonian Dream won at 2/1.  Hence the horse with the assumed better probabilty of winning won anyway.  Loads of twistes and turns in betting theory Eh?

You my lad (yes i know you don't like the word "lad" but its a dialect thingy) need to give your head a wobble, you create more twists and turns than a box of screws. Strewth ew an a 4/1 shot to pennies is a recipe that can only appease your missus.

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

You my lad (yes i know you don't like the word "lad" but its a dialect thingy) need to give your head a wobble, you create more twists and turns than a box of screws. Strewth ew an a 4/1 shot to pennies is a recipe that can only appease your missus.

Well, my boy, it depends on one's objectives.  I was talking about the Naps Comp.  Most people love the idea of winning the outright prize of £60.  Others like to go for the most winners with a prize of £20.  I like to buy into the KO Cup.  It has a prize of £30 and a runner-up prize of £10.  One only has to get within the first 25 in the naps table to qualify for the KO cup so that is what I work towards every month.

Here endeth the lesson 🙂