2000 and 1000 guineas

[richard-westwood]

Saturday is the 2000 guineas with the 1000 following on Sunday .....of course in the 2000 guineas all eyes are on the Aiden o briens ...CITY OF TROY  who is being likened to o briens version of Frankel 

Can't argue that the horse has done everything asked so far in facile manner so it's hard to see how this horse will be beat surely but either way ....when there's a short priced fav there has to be an opportunity for value bets elsewhere so I've asked the computer to rate the current 21 entries with a view to seeing what if anything could be a potential value bet alternative bet ....these are the ratings that came back ....

City of Troy 9.2 4/6 

Henry Longfellow. 8.9. 25/1 

Haatem  8.8 25/1 

Ghostwriter.  8.6 16/1 

Rosallion.  8.5 5/1 

Interesting set of results ....computer has city of Troy clear but he has been downgraded slightly based on unknown on fast ground ....so if there is any chink in this favs armour that's possibly it if the ground goes fast as it currently is .....the horse was soooo effective on soft recording a fast time ...can he be equally effective on fast ????.....not many horses can as it requires a different action but not impossible 

If the rating holds true then Aiden o brien would get the 2nd spot too with Henry Longfellow who has quietly risen through the ranks and has generally been overlooked ....but we all know never to ignore o briens 2nd or 3rd strings as they regularly pop up when you least expect them 

Not much between haatem and ghostwriter on form ...they both look very evenly matched ....you could argue that ghostwriter just edged it with class and going if the ground comes up fast but I wouldn't like to put money on that come the day .....especially if the ground came up good as that would very much swing back in haatems favour 

And finally rosallion .....who is a lot of people's idea of an Ew horse if there is one and I can't fault the horse and he's very much an improving type .....for me there's no value in the horse at all when you compare him to the other better priced horses in the ratings ......all comes down to value really ....

Good form actually at Newmarket is a very good thing to have also ....with the undulations really not suiting many horses ....good form can realistically give you as much as 5lb bonus so based on that ......

City of Troy   won

Henry Longfellow. Unknown 

Haatem. Won 

Ghostwriter. Won 

Rosallion.  Unknown 

That would seem to strengthen the Ew value of haatem and ghostwriter and overall those two look the overall best value in the race .....nothing wrong with Henry Longfellow though .....looks prime for forecasts and tricasts I think 🤔....although it may help later today as I think declarations  have to be in today ?....so some might drop out yet ....Aiden might not even run Henry after all which would help .....just a shame only 3 places on offer for a 20 runner race currently ....that's pretty crap really ...cmon bookies 

Anyone liking any of those ??....or other thoughts ?

Edited April 29 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

Well @richard-westwood every year O'Brien has the best thing since sliced bread how often have we heard the hype? A tactic they use to scare a few off and inflate the Stud value if it wins "see we told you"  August Rodin, Airforce Blue and little Big Bear to name 3. So ignoring the fav in favour of a big price ew is the right way to go imho. I will post the Speed figures soon as i have them i have little doubt that City of troy will come out tops but i might be surprised, either way the value is elsewhere.